The Calls
Dated predictions and their status, on one timeline. Left of today: already assessed. Green held up, red didn't hold up, amber partly. Right: still open; when a dot's date hits, the ledger checks it again against the public record.
Everyone Chamath Palihapitiya (116)Jason Calacanis (75)David Sacks (67)David Friedberg (61)Brad Gerstner (17)Gavin Baker (11)Elon Musk (9)Howard Lutnick (5)Dr. Mehmet Oz (5)Donald J. Trump (5)Cathie Wood (5)Ray Dalio (4)
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Baker: Starship will replace transoceanic air cargo within ten years
“Yeah, there will be no more Trans-Pacific or Trans-Atlantic cargo flights. I think in five, six, seven, eight, 10 years, you're gonna need a big Starship fleet to accomplish that. But I think the Trans-Atlantic and Trans-Pacific aerospace cargo routes go away.”
17617 days left 2074-12-07
Baker: World will run mostly on solar power within 50 years
“I think it is highly likely that in my lifetime, the world just runs on solar. Like if you just, you know, we all know compound interest is the greatest force on earth, but if you just look at the rate at which photovoltaic cell efficiency is compounding, batt…”
Closed calls (8) the full record →
Baker: Next-gen AI models will be trained on Blackwell GPUs
“The next models we see, you know, Grok five, you know, O five from open AI, whatever they're going to call Jim, the next Gemini. They will be trained on Blackwell, and I think that will be a really big step function.”
Baker predicts institutional private equity funds will buy professional sports teams
“It feels like that market is about to be institutionalized and funds are going to start buying pro sports teams.”
Baker predicts multiple independent frontier AI labs will be acquired in 2025
“And then I do think you will see a lot of these frontier AI labs that are independent be acquired.”
Baker predicts frontier AI labs will stop releasing leading-edge models publicly
“As far as a specific prediction for 25 because I don't know when that will happen, I think you will see the frontier labs stop releasing their leading-edge models to prevent knowledge distillation and their IP effectively being stolen.”
Baker predicts high bandwidth memory manufacturers will be 2025's best asset
“I think the companies that make high bandwidth memory, going back to, we're gonna run out of compute. It's actually a pretty shocking stat. High bandwidth memory is a bigger part of Nvidia's cogs on GPUs than Taiwan Semi is. And today there's two companies tha…”
Baker predicts Google Cloud will not lead 2025 cloud dollar revenue growth
“Well, it probably won't be Google, because if they had the largest dollar gain, it would mean they were growing at an, at insane rates”