The Calls
Dated predictions and their status, on one timeline. Left of today: already assessed. Green held up, red didn't hold up, amber partly. Right: still open; when a dot's date hits, the ledger checks it again against the public record.
Everyone Chamath Palihapitiya (116)Jason Calacanis (75)David Sacks (67)David Friedberg (61)Brad Gerstner (17)Gavin Baker (11)Elon Musk (9)Howard Lutnick (5)Dr. Mehmet Oz (5)Donald J. Trump (5)Cathie Wood (5)Ray Dalio (4)
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Next up (46)
7 days left 2026-09-22
107 days left 2026-12-31
107 days left 2026-12-31
107 days left 2026-12-31
107 days left 2026-12-31
Chamath predicts most protested 2026 data center power capacity will be canceled
“You have about nine gigawatts that are supposed to come online this year. Almost 50% of it now is being protested. More than likely, if history holds, most of that will get turned off, so they will get even more supply constraint.”
140 days left 2027-02-02
Palihapitiya: Congress likely to narrow Section 230 liability within 3 years
“I don't think that the Section two 30 rewrite is going to be broad and sweeping. What I noticed from a bipartisan perspective by both the Democrats and the Republicans is that the one single narrow issue that they all seem to align on is not necessarily about …”
288 days left 2027-06-30
362 days left 2027-09-12
Palihapitiya: CIOs will be publicly fired within a year over AI data leaks
“Will a handful of CIOs get very publicly flogged and fired in the next year because they accidentally didn't understand this and just did an API deal because they wanted to feel popular and leaked data into these models? Guaranteed.”
472 days left 2027-12-31
958 days left 2029-04-30
Palihapitiya: Musk will acquire Twitter and double its valuation to $100B
“I think he's going to buy Twitter. I think he's going to clean it up. I think he's probably going to generate something like a two X on this. You know, we talked about how, you know, that's like a good terminal valuation in six or seven years that basically, y…”
984 days left 2029-05-26
989 days left 2029-05-31
1072 days left 2029-08-22
Chamath: OpenAI could reach a $1.5T valuation within four years
“I would probably put that at like, 500 Dow to be conservative. It's probably doubling every two years. So 500 goes to a 1,000,000,001, billion goes to two in four years, and at two billion Dow, they generate a 1th of Facebook's revenue, just to be very conserv…”
1127 days left 2029-10-16
Chamath: Netflix will inevitably reach one billion subscribers in 7–8 years
“They're gonna get to a billion subscribers. It's just inevitable. And so for them, I do think it's a very rational business position to take, which is that I have to appeal to a billion people over the next, you know, seven or eight years.”
1204 days left 2030-01-01
1375 days left 2030-06-21
Chamath Palihapitiya predicts Microsoft's employee base will grow over five years
“So I suspect that Microsoft business on the margin grows back to Dave's point. Some of the four 93 shrink and go away. It'll be cheaper for Microsoft to bundle together a bunch of other products that are point features today. And so they'll have more people. T…”
1523 days left 2030-11-16
1550 days left 2030-12-13
Chamath predicts New York Times faces major libel lawsuit by 2030
“The one thing that I think is worth talking about the New York Times is I think they will in the next five years do something so egregious and over the line, akin to some sort of libel or some sort of statement that it turned out to be completely false. They w…”
1568 days left 2030-12-31
1568 days left 2030-12-31
Palihapitiya: Nevada lithium deposit could supply 1.5M EVs by 2030
“There's a massive deposit of lithium in Nevada, Which would be enough to basically feed Tesla and another OEM, okay? So this would get probably somewhere between one and one and a half million cars, pure electric on the road by 2030.”
1568 days left 2030-12-31
1568 days left 2030-12-31
Chamath: AI-generated code will eliminate human security vulnerabilities by 2028-2030
“But at some point, when most of the code is generated by the model, there'll be some point in the future, say, 28 or 29 or twenty-thirty, these security holes won't exist because the errors that humans make won't be made by these models.”
1647 days left 2031-03-20
2246 days left 2032-11-08
2460 days left 2033-06-10
Chamath: Zip-code-localized AI call center agents will arrive in 5-10 years
“But in the next, you know, five or 10 years, you'll have this flawless unaccented English or even more eerily, perfectly accented English for the zip code of the person that's calling in so that it sounds like they're talking to somebody that's literally their…”
2745 days left 2034-03-22
Chamath: DOJ Apple lawsuit will take 10 years or be dropped
“There's a, at least a 50% chance that the administration is going to turn over, which means that this lawsuit changes or goes away entirely. And then even if it does kind of proceed, it's going to take 10 years of very detailed arguments for something to happe…”
3030 days left 2035-01-01
3277 days left 2035-09-05
3344 days left 2035-11-11
3358 days left 2035-11-25
3394 days left 2035-12-31
3579 days left 2036-07-03
4919 days left 2040-03-04
6048 days left 2043-04-07
6965 days left 2045-10-10
Chamath: Nuclear, solar, and natural gas will diminish global oil demand in 10-20 years
“Eventually in the 10 or 15 or 20 year timeframe, you'll have an abundance of electrons from nuclear. In the meantime, you have an abundance of electrons from net gas. You have an abundance of electrons, frankly, from solar. And all of these things will ultimat…”
8509 days left 2050-01-01
8873 days left 2050-12-31
8873 days left 2050-12-31
9084 days left 2051-07-30
Palihapitiya: Room-temperature superconductors will arrive within 20 to 30 years
“People have been innovating in bringing that up to room temperature. In that breakthrough, which I think you will see in the next 20 to 30 years, it's just a complete sea change of how we think about this whole problem.”
24367 days left 2093-06-02
26770 days left 2099-12-31
Chamath: US population will reach ~400M by end of century while others halve
“The United States is we are the only Western country that is forecasted to grow at reasonable rates above our replacement population. And so, you know, by the end of this century will be around 404 hundred odd million individuals, and other countries will have…”
26771 days left 2100-01-01
26771 days left 2100-01-01
27135 days left 2100-12-31
27135 days left 2100-12-31
Closed calls (60+) the full record →
Chamath: Global copper supply will be short 70% by 2040
“And right now, Jason, we are on a path by 2040 where we will be short about 70% of the global supply at current course and speed.”
Chamath: $30 trillion wealth transfer will occur over 20 years
“And we are about to go through over the next 20 years, 30 trillion dollars of wealth transfer.”
Chamath predicts Spencer Pratt will win the Los Angeles mayoral election
“And Spencer Pratt, if he wins this election, which I think he's going to in Los Angeles, the reason is what Brad said.”
Chamath predicts Amazon will face Facebook-level antitrust scrutiny within 5-10 years
“Amazon today I don't think is at risk just because its end market is so big, but I think within five or 10 years it definitely will be looked at through the same lens as Facebook and Google and actually just those two.”
Chamath: Class action lawsuits over LLM errors in enterprise are inevitable
“And I, I'm guaranteeing you, we have not seen the class action lawsuits that will come when those errors will eventually be made. They're guaranteed to be made. We just don't know the scope and the scale of them.”
Chamath: US tariffs are definitely coming under the Trump administration
“Well, I think the tariffs will be a plug. Are they coming? Absolutely. The quantum of them, I don't know.”
Chamath Palihapitiya predicts DOGE spending cuts could exceed $2 trillion
“I suspect to be honest, it could be more than two trillion dollars when it's all said and done.”
Chamath predicts sports media rights revenue will drop in next TV deals
“And I think what happens is sports will have a decent run until the next TV deals get done. And I think if you, for example, take pharma ads outside of TV, so like that pool shrinks, if you have less viewership and so you can sell The remaining ads less effect…”
Palihapitiya predicts DOJ will force structural remedies on Google
“There'll be some form of forced remedy.”
Palihapitiya: 2021 and 2022 VC fund vintages will yield terrible returns
“Those middle vintages are just going to be garbanzo beans, 21, 22.”
Chamath: Government IDs will be required to use advanced AI models
“If you have to put in your driver's license to buy fertilizer, you're sure as will have to put in your driver's license to use Fable Five, which is the precursor to know how to use fertilizer to make the bomb.”
Chamath: Nvidia will lose market share to AI chip startups over time
“At some point, the spread trade will be that Nvidia loses share, even though revenues keep compounding to these upstarts.”
Chamath: OpenAI's tax structure issues will be resolved in court
“And if OpenAI turns out to be this multi-hundred billion dollar behemoth, this will get figured out in court because there's just too much money at stake.”
Chamath Palihapitiya predicts TikTok will be acquired extremely cheaply under Donald Trump
“And I think that we'll probably find one. And I think that it probably happens under the Trump presidency and whoever gets their hands on it, gets their hands on an incredible asset. That they will be able to buy extremely cheaply, because there is no way that…”
Chamath predicts Biden will not serve out a full second term if re-elected
“I don't think Biden is going to step down at all, but I do think there's a chance A non-trivial chance that Biden wins. And if he does, I don't think he's going to make it four years.”
Chamath: SpaceX will reverse merge into Tesla instead of IPOing
“I don't think SpaceX will IPO. I think that it will reverse merge into Tesla, and I think Elon will use it as a moment to consolidate control and power of his two seminal assets into one cap table.”
Chamath: AI copyright disputes will be sorted out through court trials
“The most important thing is that this will get sorted out through trials. That's where you are right, Jason. It's going to go to court.”
Chamath: U.S. faces the largest intergenerational wealth transfer in history
“We're about to go, the largest generation of wealth transfer beyond imagination. We're talking trillions and trillions and trillions of dollars.”
Apple will cede its AI business to Google, Chamath predicts
“Apple is now in this really interesting place where it seems like they're going to seed their AI business to Google and pay them billions of dollars a year like they get paid billions of dollars a year for search from them.”
Palihapitiya: Nvidia's margins will compress as major tech companies build custom chips
“In the end, Nvidia's gains today will be then spread across Nvidia. Facebook will have their own chip. Amazon will have their own chip. Google already does. Apple will have their own chip. All the memory companies will be in this space, right? So then the prof…”
Palihapitiya predicts publishers will block non-paying AI agents from their content
“So this is going to happen for these agents. It's unrealistic to expect that it won't.”
Chamath predicts the DOJ antitrust lawsuit against Google will fail
“But by focusing on this, I think it's going to get deconstructed. It's going to fail.”
Chamath: US government will attempt to rewrite Section 230
“The United States government is going to make an attempt to rewrite section two 30.”
Chamath: Regulators will investigate top VCs over unregulated token sales
“So if the SEC is really, and the DOJ is really going to take this FTT token issue seriously, and what happened to FTX? They're going to start to look at a bunch of other tokens and token sales, and you're going to end up looking at some very well-known venture…”