The Calls
Dated predictions and their status, on one timeline. Left of today: already assessed. Green held up, red didn't hold up, amber partly. Right: still open; when a dot's date hits, the ledger checks it again against the public record.
Everyone Chamath Palihapitiya (116)Jason Calacanis (75)David Sacks (67)David Friedberg (61)Brad Gerstner (17)Gavin Baker (11)Elon Musk (9)Howard Lutnick (5)Dr. Mehmet Oz (5)Donald J. Trump (5)Cathie Wood (5)Ray Dalio (4)
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Next up (24)
49 days left 2026-11-01
52 days left 2026-11-04
Sacks Predicts Republicans Will Keep the Senate in 2026 Midterms
“I do think that the Democrats, I think it is legitimate to say that they are favored to win the house. I think the Senate right now is a toss up and I would say that the Republicans will ultimately keep it if I had to predict right now.”
56 days left 2026-11-08
109 days left 2026-12-31
109 days left 2026-12-31
109 days left 2026-12-31
109 days left 2026-12-31
109 days left 2026-12-31
Sacks: Anthropic will reach $100B ARR by end of 2026
“I think it's pretty much a foregone conclusion that they will hit that forecast of Tenex this year, exiting the year, call it roughly a hundred billion of ARR, and now the only question is whether they hit a trillion in twenty-twenty-seven, and we can debate w…”
109 days left 2026-12-31
109 days left 2026-12-31
260 days left 2027-05-31
653 days left 2028-06-27
700 days left 2028-08-13
758 days left 2028-10-10
Sacks: BRICS gold-backed trade currency unlikely in next few years
“The best guess about what they're going to do is it'll be some sort of gold-backed certificates where they can settle up huge international trade flows using gold certificates. So that might be part of what's driving this as well. That's a very long-term proje…”
786 days left 2028-11-07
Sacks: Defeated 2026 California wealth tax will return stronger in 2028
“And that's why I think that if we defeat this in 26, it doesn't mean it's dead for good, it just means it's gonna come back In a new form in 28, but with much more broad based union support, all the unions are going to do it together.”
786 days left 2028-11-07
786 days left 2028-11-07
840 days left 2028-12-31
935 days left 2029-04-05
940 days left 2029-04-10
Sacks: AI-generated code will reach 95% within a few years
“So number one is with respect to this market for code or code tokens, whatever you want to call it might be five percent today, meaning five percent of the codes, AI generated versus human generated. I think it's going to 95%. I mean, I bet any amount of money…”
1570 days left 2030-12-31
1769 days left 2031-07-18
2419 days left 2033-04-28
Closed calls (60+) the full record →
Sacks predicts no new U.S. gun control legislation for a generation
“There's not going to be any new gun control legislation for a generation because of the looting and writing that's going on Gun sales are at an all-time high.”
Sacks predicts Washington regulatory push will eventually ban open-source AI
“In terms of the red capture agenda that you're seeing in Washington, I think where it's all leading to is an effort to ban open source models or open weight models.”
Sacks: Federal forces will deploy to Memphis following governor's invitation
“In Memphis, they have been invited by the Republican governor to go in and help, and so they will.”
Sacks predicts Trump administration will support federal preemption of AI laws
“So I think the administration ultimately will support this.”
Sacks: Trial lawyers will use AI psychosis claims to sue tech companies
“And then the trial lawyers are going to love it because it gives them a new basis for suing all these companies.”
Sacks: Lina Khan will not lead the FTC in a second Trump administration
“I don't think that Lena Khan is going to be running that agency in a second Trump administration”
Sacks predicts second Biden term will force Elon Musk to divest X
“So I think that in a second Biden term, they will open an investigation and just start ratcheting up the pressure on Elon to get rid of X, because that's clearly what they want.”
Sacks predicts US strikes in Yemen will trigger war with Iran
“So I don't think this is going to have any impact other than to escalate the conflict in the Middle East and put us on a path to war with Iran, which is really where the neocons want to take us. You've heard, obviously, the warmongers like Lindsey Graham are c…”
Sacks predicts a de-escalation avoiding an Israeli ground invasion is unlikely
“I personally think that that's still unlikely. And the main reason for that is I think Israel is determined to go in.”
Sacks: Prosecutions will send Donald Trump to prison or the White House
“They're either gonna send Donald Trump to the big house or to the White House.”
Sacks: Trump will win election subversion case if it reaches Supreme Court
“I think if he has to take the Supreme Court, he's going to win it because it's just a novel legal theory.”
Sacks: Offshore stablecoin issuers must move onshore within three years
“They will have to come onshore as part of this bill in the next three years.”
Sacks: Law enforcement will use AI co-pilots to detect automated cybercrime
“So there will be new tools that law enforcement will be able to use. And if somebody is creating phishing sites at scale, they're going to be probably pretty easy for, you know, law enforcement AIs to detect. So let's not forget that there'll be co-pilots writ…”
Sacks predicts Garland will drop Trump document prosecution
“I think Merrick Garland now is going to have to drop the prosecution against Trump for the stolen documents, or at least that part of what they're investigating him for.”
Sacks: West Virginia Senate seat will go Republican when Manchin retires
“When Joe Manchin retires, that seat is going Republican.”
Sacks doubts Congress will pass $2 trillion in spending cuts
“Are we gonna get two trillion in cuts like Elon wants? I would love that. I doubt you're gonna be able to pass that through Congress”
Sacks: AI chat will achieve promptless proactive assistance by GPT-5
“Well, that's where I want to go with it, is I call that promptless, which is I want the AI just to chime in when it determines that it has relevant information and can help the team, even if it hasn't been summoned yet. But we need some model improvement for t…”
Sacks predicts TikTok will be shut down in US, not divested
“So I don't think they're going to be able to divest. I think they're just going to get shut down.”
Sacks: VC capital will be deployed much slower over 3-4 years
“Yes, there's a record amount of money venture capital has raised over the last, you know, couple of years, but it's going to be deployed much more slowly and carefully. Over the next, say, three or four years than it was over the previous few years.”
Sacks: Democratic machine will likely back Eric Swalwell for California governor
“So probably the machine gets behind Swalwell. Even though it probably means a train wreck for the state, but we'll see.”
Sacks predicts AI will increase demand for knowledge workers
“As you may recall on the prediction show for this year, my most contrarian belief is that AI would increase demand for knowledge workers, not put them out of business.”
Sacks: 2026 will see a major IPO boom creating trillions in market cap
“I think 2026 is going to be a big year for IPOs. I'm not going to say which ones. I think there's going to be a bunch of them, a bunch of successful ones, and I think we could see trillions of dollars of new market cap created of public companies.”