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Gavin Baker

Managing Partner & CIO, Atreides Management · 11 appearances on the record.

computed by AI from the episodes · how this works → · full disclaimer →

investorfounderexecutive@GavinSBaker ↗LinkedIn ↗gavinbaker.net ↗

Gavin Baker is the Managing Partner and Chief Investment Officer at Atreides Management, a crossover fund he founded in 2019. He previously spent 18 years at Fidelity Investments, where he managed the Fidelity OTC Fund.

146statements → 114claims → 39claims resolved → 46%fully supported → 3.55/5average certainty → 2.79/5average debate potential → ≈4.0/5argument clarity, estimated → 31said about them ↓

18 supported 15 partly supported 6 contradicted 11 not yet assessed 64 not checkable as stated how the 114 claims stand · each chip opens the sources

62 predictions · 52 assertions · 16 opinions · 13 insights · 1 disclosure · 2 what ifs · every statement was checked. The predictions and assertions are the 114 claims: statements the public record can support or contradict. 39 are resolved, 11 are not yet assessed, and 64 name no date, number or outcome precise enough to check. Everything else (opinions, insights, what ifs, disclosures) can never be settled by the record, so it carries no assessment.

The record, in short

What the tape says about how Gavin argues and how the claims held up. Everything they said, and everything said about them, is in the tabs below.

Their most notable supported claim

Assertion Supported
Baker: Republican DAs reduce young Black male all-cause mortality by 7%
“There's a study that is uncontested that when you elect a Republican DA, all cause mortality for young black men in that city drops by seven percent.”
Gavin Baker Jun 27, 2026 ▶ 29:23 Socialists Sweep NYC, China Catches Up in Coding, AI Memory Crunch, Micron's Blowout Quarter

Their most notable contradicted claim

Prediction Didn’t hold up
Baker: Zohran Mamdani will almost certainly win NYC mayoral election
“Unless Adams or Cuomo pulls out, he's almost certainly going to win.”
Gavin Baker Aug 9, 2025 ▶ 1:02:07 OpenAI's GPT-5 Flop, AI's Unlimited Market, China's Big Advantage, Rise in Socialism, Housing Crisis

Expressed certainty vs assessment result

none yet certainty 1
none yet certainty 2
69% certainty 3
64% certainty 4
75% certainty 5

weighted support: a fully supported claim counts one, a partly supported claim counts half. Each filled bar is clickable and opens exactly those claims; "none yet" means nothing said at that certainty level has resolved yet

How they sound: speaking style how? →

248 words/min while actually speaking · 11.4 um and uh per 1k words

No argument clarity score for Gavin Baker: only 7 usable question→answer exchanges on raw tape (a fair score needs 8+). We do not score a sample that small. Roundtable and news formats yield far fewer direct exchanges than interviews. Their coarse estimate from 19 exchanges across raw tape and the produced feed is ≈4.0/5, shown at half point precision because the sample is small and produced tape scores higher.

Measured by listening to the audio itself: 19,938 words across 6 episodes of raw-level tape, transcribed verbatim with every um and uh kept, each one attributed only where the alignment onto our timed stream is unambiguous. These are measurements of speaking style. We do not rank them: across this corpus, fluency and argument quality are nearly uncorrelated (ρ≈0.2), and smooth talking does not signal clear thinking. How it's measured →

Everything Gavin Baker said on All-In that made the record, most notable first. Filter by type, assessment or year in the ledger →

Assertion Open · timeframe Aug 2027
Baker: Anthropic is profitable and currently generating cash
“Anthropic is generating cash, and like, they kind of, this fact is, I would say, kind of known in the world, and I've actually never really spoken to Anthropic, but it just, you know, it feels like there are enough signals And then if you're to read the tea le…”
Gavin Baker Aug 13, 2026 ▶ 1:11:41 Anthropic's $2T IPO, Zuck's AI Manifesto, Nvidia's $500B AI Bet, Grok's Comeback
Opinion
Gavin Baker: Anthropic is worth $3 trillion today
“I think Anthropic is worth three trillion dollars today, and it's very important.”
Gavin Baker Jun 27, 2026 ▶ 1:28:27 Socialists Sweep NYC, China Catches Up in Coding, AI Memory Crunch, Micron's Blowout Quarter
Prediction Open · timeframe Dec 2026
Gavin Baker: Anthropic will end the year with over $100B revenue
“They're going to end this year well over a hundred billion.”
Gavin Baker Jun 27, 2026 ▶ 1:28:42 Socialists Sweep NYC, China Catches Up in Coding, AI Memory Crunch, Micron's Blowout Quarter
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Baker: Banning open-source AI means losing the AI race to China
“If we ban open source, if we let this control be centralized, we will lose AI, we will lose geopolitics, we will lose everything to China. It's just that Simple.”
Gavin Baker Aug 13, 2026 ▶ 39:12 Anthropic's $2T IPO, Zuck's AI Manifesto, Nvidia's $500B AI Bet, Grok's Comeback
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Baker: The overwhelming majority of AI tokens are profitable
“The overwhelming majority of tokens are profitable for everyone in the chain. Everyone. And I think the Anthropic S-one is kind of going to make that clear.”
Gavin Baker Aug 13, 2026 ▶ 1:12:32 Anthropic's $2T IPO, Zuck's AI Manifesto, Nvidia's $500B AI Bet, Grok's Comeback
Assertion Supported
Baker: Republican DAs reduce young Black male all-cause mortality by 7%
“There's a study that is uncontested that when you elect a Republican DA, all cause mortality for young black men in that city drops by seven percent.”
Gavin Baker Jun 27, 2026 ▶ 29:23 Socialists Sweep NYC, China Catches Up in Coding, AI Memory Crunch, Micron's Blowout Quarter
Opinion
Gavin Baker: America is Earth's only vaguely successful multicultural society
“America is awesome, and we're the only vaguely successful multicultural society on planet Earth.”
Gavin Baker Jun 27, 2026 ▶ 41:21 Socialists Sweep NYC, China Catches Up in Coding, AI Memory Crunch, Micron's Blowout Quarter
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Baker: A CCP-funded campaign may be targeting US AI and data centers
“It is starting to feel or seem like there may be a CCP funded campaign against AI and data centers in America.”
Gavin Baker May 22, 2026 ▶ 12:49 SpaceX’s $2T Case, Nvidia’s Shock Selloff, America Turns on AI, Trump Pulls AI Order, Bond Crisis?
Opinion
Baker: Competitors withhold custom AI ASICs from benchmarks because they would lose
“These other ASICs. . Are not being submitted for benchmarks. They're not in the CB analysis inference max. They're not in MLperf. I think the reason they're not being submitted is they will lose.”
Gavin Baker May 22, 2026 ▶ 1:17:30 SpaceX’s $2T Case, Nvidia’s Shock Selloff, America Turns on AI, Trump Pulls AI Order, Bond Crisis?
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Gavin Baker: Older GPUs have a useful life of 10 to 15 years
“All GPUs use Grok or Cerebrus for decode, and then those older GPUs, they have a useful life for 10 or 15 years, and this means that you can finance GPUs.”
Gavin Baker May 22, 2026 ▶ 1:21:07 SpaceX’s $2T Case, Nvidia’s Shock Selloff, America Turns on AI, Trump Pulls AI Order, Bond Crisis?
Insight
Gavin Baker: Selling deprecated Nvidia GPUs to China delays Chinese semiconductor independence
“I think selling in deprecated Nvidia GPUs to China. Lowers the odds of them developing their own alternative ecosystem, which would be a lot power hungrier because you use optical, you bring in optical a lot earlier for scale up fabrics.”
Gavin Baker May 22, 2026 ▶ 1:36:19 SpaceX’s $2T Case, Nvidia’s Shock Selloff, America Turns on AI, Trump Pulls AI Order, Bond Crisis?
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Baker: Zohran Mamdani will almost certainly win NYC mayoral election
“Unless Adams or Cuomo pulls out, he's almost certainly going to win.”
Gavin Baker Aug 9, 2025 ▶ 1:02:07 OpenAI's GPT-5 Flop, AI's Unlimited Market, China's Big Advantage, Rise in Socialism, Housing Crisis
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Baker predicts Trump will negotiate a deal detrimental to Russia and Ukraine
“I think Trump is going to be a lot tougher on Putin than people think. And I think he's going to get a very, very a deal that's very, very bad for Russia and Ukraine.”
Gavin Baker Jan 4, 2025 ▶ 10:26 2025 Predictions: Tech, Business, Media, Politics!
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Baker predicts major tech companies will acquire all sports broadcasting rights
“Just the fact that all of the biggest tech companies are so happy with the sports kind of rights that they bought, they're gonna buy them all.”
Gavin Baker Jan 4, 2025 ▶ 38:25 2025 Predictions: Tech, Business, Media, Politics!
Prediction Open · timeframe Jan 2029
Baker predicts the US will hit 5% real GDP growth soon
“My most contrary belief, so I think that America over the next, at some point over the next four years, will print at least one year of greater than five percent GDP growth, real GDP growth.”
Gavin Baker Jan 4, 2025 ▶ 1:03:56 2025 Predictions: Tech, Business, Media, Politics!
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Baker: China will fail to keep pace with U.S. AI post-Blackwell
“But, you know, Nvidia's Blackwell chip comes out next year. You're gonna have new chips from AMD, new ASICs from Broadcom. And I think at that point, it is not going to be possible for them to keep up anymore.”
Gavin Baker Dec 7, 2024 ▶ 47:47 New SEC Chair, Bitcoin, xAI Supercomputer, UnitedHealth CEO murder, with Gavin Baker & Joe Lonsdale
Prediction Open · timeframe Apr 2033
Baker: Starship will replace transoceanic air cargo within ten years
“Yeah, there will be no more Trans-Pacific or Trans-Atlantic cargo flights. I think in five, six, seven, eight, 10 years, you're gonna need a big Starship fleet to accomplish that. But I think the Trans-Atlantic and Trans-Pacific aerospace cargo routes go away.”
Gavin Baker Apr 21, 2023 ▶ 8:32 E125: SpaceX launch, Fox News settlement, "Zombie-corn" exodus to AI, late-stage implosion
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Baker: Anthropic is losing marginal market share to OpenAI and Grok
“And what's wild to me is that probably on the margin, Anthropic is losing share to OpenAI, to open source, and to Grok, and they're still growing so fast.”
Gavin Baker Aug 13, 2026 ▶ 5:53 Anthropic's $2T IPO, Zuck's AI Manifesto, Nvidia's $500B AI Bet, Grok's Comeback
Assertion Supported
Baker: Software coder job openings are higher today than a year ago
“There are, you know, there are more job openings for software coders today than there were a year ago. There's more demand for coders, and that is the kind of in the epicenter of the blast zone.”
Gavin Baker Aug 13, 2026 ▶ 15:35 Anthropic's $2T IPO, Zuck's AI Manifesto, Nvidia's $500B AI Bet, Grok's Comeback
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Baker: Frontier models will capture 65 to 85 percent of value
“I think a very plausible outcome is one in which frontier tokens Or 65 to 85% of the economic value. Open source tokens are like 80% of the volume, and that's good for everyone, and everyone wins.”
Gavin Baker Aug 13, 2026 ▶ 50:20 Anthropic's $2T IPO, Zuck's AI Manifesto, Nvidia's $500B AI Bet, Grok's Comeback
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Baker: Anthropic reaching $400B to $500B revenue by 2027 is realistic
“I think four to five, I think four to five hundred billion is within the zone of like realistic and achievable.”
Gavin Baker Aug 13, 2026 ▶ 51:35 Anthropic's $2T IPO, Zuck's AI Manifesto, Nvidia's $500B AI Bet, Grok's Comeback
Assertion Supported
Baker: CoreWeave is profitably renting 2020 Nvidia Ampere GPUs through 2029
“Corweave said that they are renting Amperes at economically profitable rates today for 2029. So an Ampere that came out in 2020 is going to have a nine-year life, and I think that's what Nvidia sees”
Gavin Baker Aug 13, 2026 ▶ 1:02:54 Anthropic's $2T IPO, Zuck's AI Manifesto, Nvidia's $500B AI Bet, Grok's Comeback
Insight
Baker: Nvidia is functioning as the central bank of AI
“In some ways, NVIDIA is kind of becoming the central bank of AI. The Federal Reserve of AI. That is like a way to kind of conceptualize what they are doing. And in the same way, the federal reserve, like a lot of monetary policy, it works through private banks…”
Gavin Baker Aug 13, 2026 ▶ 1:06:39 Anthropic's $2T IPO, Zuck's AI Manifesto, Nvidia's $500B AI Bet, Grok's Comeback
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Gavin Baker: AI will be the defining issue in upcoming elections
“AI is, I think, going to be the defining political issue of the midterms, and for sure the next presidential election.”
Gavin Baker Jun 27, 2026 ▶ 17:34 Socialists Sweep NYC, China Catches Up in Coding, AI Memory Crunch, Micron's Blowout Quarter

Show 24statements(122 left)

The other half of the tape: Gavin Baker's own voice is left out of every number here. Other people bring the name up 29 times in 18 episodes on All-In. 2 statements on the record name them. every mention, with the transcript →

Who brings them up most Jason Calacanis 20Chamath Palihapitiya 4Thomas Laffont 2David Sacks 2David Friedberg 1

Statements about Gavin Baker, by other people (2)

Prediction Not checkable as stated
Jason Calacanis predicts all large language models will become open-source commodities
“Gavin Baker came on this podcast and said it's the fastest deprecating asset in the world was a large language model. He's been proven right. They're not worth anything. They're all going to be open source. They're all going to be commoditized, and that's for …”
Jason Calacanis Jan 31, 2025 ▶ 44:01 DeepSeek Panic, US vs China, OpenAI $40B?, and Doge Delivers with Travis Kalanick and David Sacks
Assertion Supported
Laffont: More tech companies are valued over $1B privately than publicly
“There's more private companies in tech That are worth more than a billion than public ones.”
Thomas Laffont Sep 26, 2024 ▶ 6:27 Thomas Laffont | All-In Summit 2024

Every mention by year

tap a year for its mentions
0083156202120222023202420252026episodesmentions
036202120222023202420252026episodes it came up in
001.5336202120222023202420252026episodesmentions per episode
2026 12 mentions in 4 episodes 3 per episode
2025 8 mentions in 6 episodes 1 per episode
2024 3 mentions in 3 episodes 1 per episode
2022 5 mentions in 4 episodes 1 per episode
2021 1 mention in 1 episode

Appearances (11)

EpisodeDateSpeaking time
Anthropic's $2T IPO, Zuck's AI Manifesto, Nvidia's $500B AI Bet, Grok's Comeback Aug 13, 2026 28m
Socialists Sweep NYC, China Catches Up in Coding, AI Memory Crunch, Micron's Blowout Quart Jun 27, 2026 29m
All-In's Best Ideas Pitch Competition: 4 Investors Present Their Top Trades Live Jun 12, 2026 4m
Why Secondary Markets Are Eating the IPO | All-In Liquidity Secondary Markets Panel Jun 7, 2026 8m
SpaceX’s $2T Case, Nvidia’s Shock Selloff, America Turns on AI, Trump Pulls AI Order, Bond May 22, 2026 28m
OpenAI's GPT-5 Flop, AI's Unlimited Market, China's Big Advantage, Rise in Socialism, Hous Aug 9, 2025 16m
Trump vs Powell, Solving the Debt Crisis, The $10T AGI Prize, GENIUS Act Becomes Law Jul 19, 2025 18m
The AI Cold War, Signalgate, CoreWeave IPO, Tariff Endgames, El Salvador Deportations Mar 29, 2025 22m
2025 Predictions: Tech, Business, Media, Politics! Jan 4, 2025 21m
New SEC Chair, Bitcoin, xAI Supercomputer, UnitedHealth CEO murder, with Gavin Baker & Joe Dec 7, 2024 25m
E125: SpaceX launch, Fox News settlement, "Zombie-corn" exodus to AI, late-stage implosion Apr 21, 2023 3m
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