The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 146 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 11 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Baker: Anthropic is profitable and currently generating cash
“Anthropic is generating cash, and like, they kind of, this fact is, I would say, kind of known in the world, and I've actually never really spoken to Anthropic, but it just, you know, it feels like there are enough signals And then if you're to read the tea le…”
Gavin Baker: Anthropic is worth $3 trillion today
“I think Anthropic is worth three trillion dollars today, and it's very important.”
Gavin Baker: Anthropic will end the year with over $100B revenue
“They're going to end this year well over a hundred billion.”
Baker: Banning open-source AI means losing the AI race to China
“If we ban open source, if we let this control be centralized, we will lose AI, we will lose geopolitics, we will lose everything to China. It's just that Simple.”
Baker: The overwhelming majority of AI tokens are profitable
“The overwhelming majority of tokens are profitable for everyone in the chain. Everyone. And I think the Anthropic S-one is kind of going to make that clear.”
Baker: Republican DAs reduce young Black male all-cause mortality by 7%
“There's a study that is uncontested that when you elect a Republican DA, all cause mortality for young black men in that city drops by seven percent.”
Gavin Baker: America is Earth's only vaguely successful multicultural society
“America is awesome, and we're the only vaguely successful multicultural society on planet Earth.”
Baker: A CCP-funded campaign may be targeting US AI and data centers
“It is starting to feel or seem like there may be a CCP funded campaign against AI and data centers in America.”
Baker: Competitors withhold custom AI ASICs from benchmarks because they would lose
“These other ASICs. . Are not being submitted for benchmarks. They're not in the CB analysis inference max. They're not in MLperf. I think the reason they're not being submitted is they will lose.”
Gavin Baker: Older GPUs have a useful life of 10 to 15 years
“All GPUs use Grok or Cerebrus for decode, and then those older GPUs, they have a useful life for 10 or 15 years, and this means that you can finance GPUs.”
Gavin Baker: Selling deprecated Nvidia GPUs to China delays Chinese semiconductor independence
“I think selling in deprecated Nvidia GPUs to China. Lowers the odds of them developing their own alternative ecosystem, which would be a lot power hungrier because you use optical, you bring in optical a lot earlier for scale up fabrics.”
Baker: Zohran Mamdani will almost certainly win NYC mayoral election
“Unless Adams or Cuomo pulls out, he's almost certainly going to win.”
Baker predicts Trump will negotiate a deal detrimental to Russia and Ukraine
“I think Trump is going to be a lot tougher on Putin than people think. And I think he's going to get a very, very a deal that's very, very bad for Russia and Ukraine.”
Baker predicts major tech companies will acquire all sports broadcasting rights
“Just the fact that all of the biggest tech companies are so happy with the sports kind of rights that they bought, they're gonna buy them all.”
Baker predicts the US will hit 5% real GDP growth soon
“My most contrary belief, so I think that America over the next, at some point over the next four years, will print at least one year of greater than five percent GDP growth, real GDP growth.”
Baker: China will fail to keep pace with U.S. AI post-Blackwell
“But, you know, Nvidia's Blackwell chip comes out next year. You're gonna have new chips from AMD, new ASICs from Broadcom. And I think at that point, it is not going to be possible for them to keep up anymore.”
Baker: Starship will replace transoceanic air cargo within ten years
“Yeah, there will be no more Trans-Pacific or Trans-Atlantic cargo flights. I think in five, six, seven, eight, 10 years, you're gonna need a big Starship fleet to accomplish that. But I think the Trans-Atlantic and Trans-Pacific aerospace cargo routes go away.”
Baker: Anthropic is losing marginal market share to OpenAI and Grok
“And what's wild to me is that probably on the margin, Anthropic is losing share to OpenAI, to open source, and to Grok, and they're still growing so fast.”
Baker: Software coder job openings are higher today than a year ago
“There are, you know, there are more job openings for software coders today than there were a year ago. There's more demand for coders, and that is the kind of in the epicenter of the blast zone.”
Baker: Frontier models will capture 65 to 85 percent of value
“I think a very plausible outcome is one in which frontier tokens Or 65 to 85% of the economic value. Open source tokens are like 80% of the volume, and that's good for everyone, and everyone wins.”
Baker: Anthropic reaching $400B to $500B revenue by 2027 is realistic
“I think four to five, I think four to five hundred billion is within the zone of like realistic and achievable.”
Baker: CoreWeave is profitably renting 2020 Nvidia Ampere GPUs through 2029
“Corweave said that they are renting Amperes at economically profitable rates today for 2029. So an Ampere that came out in 2020 is going to have a nine-year life, and I think that's what Nvidia sees”
Baker: Nvidia is functioning as the central bank of AI
“In some ways, NVIDIA is kind of becoming the central bank of AI. The Federal Reserve of AI. That is like a way to kind of conceptualize what they are doing. And in the same way, the federal reserve, like a lot of monetary policy, it works through private banks…”
Gavin Baker: AI will be the defining issue in upcoming elections
“AI is, I think, going to be the defining political issue of the midterms, and for sure the next presidential election.”
Baker: Zohran Mamdani is one of the most talented politicians alive
“I think the reason they're ascendant is Zoran Mamdani. I think he is one of the most talented politicians I've ever seen in my lifetime.”
Baker: Enterprises will adopt composable multi-model 'Council of LLMs' architectures
“I profoundly believe the future is composable models, and you're going to every enterprise, You're going to have what Andre Karpathy called the Council of LLNs.”
Gavin Baker: Open-source AI shifts economic value to infrastructure providers
“They're awesome for the AI infrastructure providers. They just shift economic value from the margins of the frontier labs to the infrastructure.”
Gavin Baker: DRAM will be 30-40% of hyperscaler capex next year
“Memory is DRAM is probably going to be 30 to 40% of all hyperscaler capex next year.”
Gavin Baker: Reusable Starship will launch a gigawatt of compute for $5B
“When Starship is reusable, it's going to cost five billion dollars to put a gigawatt of compute into space.”
Baker: AI GPUs will remain in active use for 7-12 years
“We're going to be using GPUs for Seven years, 10 years, 12 years, and that's great because it lowers the cost to finance them, which makes this AI revolution more financeable.”
Baker: Portfolio managers automatically dump stocks that break their IPO price
“There are a lot of portfolio managers who, if a stock breaks deal price, they sell it no matter what. They consider it a promise that was broken.”
Baker: Private investors appease founders to secure future round allocation
“Private investors are often selling to management teams. And at some level that can mean telling management teams what they need to hear, because you want to be able to keep participating in the rounds.”
Gavin Baker: Post-IPO lockup expirations will release hundreds of billions in demand
“So this is going to be hundreds of billions of dollars of new late stage demand that is coming back to the market after kind of being out.”
Baker: Total LLM ARR could reach $200B-$400B by end of year
“It's not hard to see 203 104 hundred billion dollars of ARR at the end of this year at a high margin.”
Gavin Baker: Cursor allegedly has more coding tokens than public internet
“Cursor has, we will never know, but Cursor allegedly has more tokens of coding data than exist on the public internet.”
Gavin Baker: Major tech firms are convinced orbital compute will become reality
“Google, Anthropic, Amazon, NVIDIA. They are all very convinced that orbital compute is going to be reality, and obviously SpaceX is extraordinarily well positioned for that.”
Gavin Baker: Only xAI, Google, OpenAI, and Anthropic are AI frontier companies
“And the companies on the frontier are XAI with one build of Grok 4.3, which is a five hundred billion parameter model. Google, 3.1 pro, and then OpenAI and Anthropic, and that's it. Those are the companies on the frontier.”
Baker predicts orbital compute will become a reality between 2028 and 2030
“Second half of 28 to First half of 20 30 would be my point prediction.”
Baker: AI hardware sector valuations are cross-sectionally inefficient and inconsistent
“Cross-sectionally, if you look at the valuations for all these AI names, they just, they can't all be accurate... The AI market is cross-sectionally inefficient right now, which is what I was trying to say.”
Baker: Nvidia's Western AI business grows faster than Broadcom's
“Within the Western AI world, Within data centers that need being built, whether they're being built by CoreWeave, XAI, Amazon, Google, NVIDIA's AI business is growing faster than Broadcoms.”
Gavin Baker: Nvidia trades at low to mid-teens multiple of real earnings
“And, you know, these, the Nvidia of the tech bubble is Cisco and it traded a hundred times forward earnings. And, you know, I think Nvidia is probably at a low teens, multiple of kind of low to mid teens, multiple of real earnings.”
Baker: GPT-5 is OpenAI's first frontier model that isn't decisively best
“This is the first time that, you know, open AI has released a new model that was not decisively the best.”
Gavin Baker: ROIC for tech companies has risen alongside AI investments
“You can calculate some, you know, something called return on invested capital, and it's actually gone up. Since they started making these AI investments.”
Baker: AI infrastructure is not overbuilt and is trailing market demand
“All of the dollars that are going into the ground are being used. We're not building ahead of demand. In fact, we're clearly still behind demand”
Baker: DeepSeek employees have CCP minders and cannot be near Americans
“If you work for deep sea, you are not allowed to be in the same room as an American while you're in China. And you have kind of a CCP minder with you most of the time.”
Baker: Imperial presidency is preferable to an imperial judiciary
“And the executive branch, which is at least elected and accountable, I would rather have an imperial president who we can judge and vote out of office than an imperial judiciary.”
Baker: $1B in smuggled Nvidia chips won't alter US-China AI race
“A billion dollars worth of GPUs. It's not enough to really move the needle, you know, even if they are Blackwell's the latest and greatest, you know, it's better than having none if you're China. But I mean, it's just, you know, it's not like a 10, twenty bill…”