Prediction Open · timeframe Sep 2030
Yakovenko: The internet will hold the most US Treasuries within five years
“I think within five years, the internet is going to be the largest holder of US treasuries.”
What-if
Yakovenko: Crypto industry might not have survived four more years under Gensler
“I don't know if the industry would have survived another four years of the Gensler regime.”
Opinion
Yakovenko: Bitcoin should migrate to a quantum-resistant signature scheme
“We should migrate Bitcoin to a quantum resistance signature scheme.”
Opinion
Yakovenko: Solana is world's execution layer, Ethereum is settlement layer
“Ethereum being world settlement layer, Solana is the world's execution layer.”
Opinion
Yakovenko: Execution is where money is made in blockchain
“Execution is where all the money's made, so I think we're on the right track, and a fast execution engine can also do settlement.”
Disclosure
Yakovenko: Solana spent $2M of $14M raised on US legal fees
“We raised a seed in A-Round. It was about fourteen million bucks, which is amazing. It was, you know, like, outright crazy success for a new, a first-time founder. I had to spend two million of that on lawyer fees. Which is a more than 10% of my runway to figu…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Yakovenko: 50% chance of quantum computing breakthrough within five years
“Honest answer, I feel like fifty-fifty within five years there is a quantum breakthrough, and part of that is because of how fast they are.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Yakovenko: Bitcoin will survive the collapse of major institutional holders
“I think Bitcoin is resilient to these entities collapsing. Now, it's not going to be without painful risk that in terms of like people that own Bitcoin, but the thing is, it'll survive that, and all the properties of Bitcoin that people value will remain throu…”
Insight
Yakovenko: Banks are more disruptible than Visa and MasterCard
“My, like contrary opinion is that I think Visa and MasterCard are more technology companies, and if you look at their, like, profit margin on the gross payment volume, it's like 10 basis points. It's like vapor. I think the issuer and receiver bank, those are …”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Yakovenko: Visa would be more successful by using stablecoins to bypass banks
“If they could remove the banks out of the loop and just do stable cone transfers behind the scenes, I think they become a lot more successful and they can do a lot more for, you know, a lot less.”
Opinion
Yakovenko: The US has the best, most trusted financial system globally
“I think we actually have the best financial system in the world. It's the most trusted, the most robust, the best regulatory environment for what it's worth as well.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Yakovenko: Nasdaq would make more money running a Solana node
“If we succeed, if the protocol is awesome and globally synchronous and super fast, Nasdaq would make more money by just running a Solana node and integrating with it more directly.”
Disclosure
Yakovenko: Solana will never build an exchange onboarding US institutional clients
“We're never going to build an exchange that is onboarding U.S. Institutionals and serving U.S. Customers. We want NASDAQ to do that and to run it on Solana, and that would be great.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Yakovenko: NFT-driven community IP creation will succeed in 5 to 10 years
“So I think even the weird experiments with NFTs being a way to create a community of artists to build a movie or story and create true new IP, all that will happen just five years from now or 10 years once We had critical maps.”
Insight
Yakovenko: Crypto monetization could enable a viable competitor to TikTok
“I personally think that you could build a competitive product to TikTok with crypto if the magic, you caught that kind of lightning in a bottle, because the monetization mechanism with crypto is so different than the ad-based one.”
Insight
Yakovenko: DeFi risk management is useless if all assets are correlated
“If everything that is in crypto, all this innovation around risk management in real time between, you know, borrowers and lenders, it's useless because if everything's a meme coin, everything's correlated, it'll all crash at the same time.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Yakovenko: Quantum computing will match AI in wealth creation if realized
“For the general public, quantum computing is such a massive unlock in terms of how much we can process that it's going to be as big of a wealth creator if we pull it off as AI.”
Disclosure
Yakovenko: Initial Solana calculations showed 1,000x speed vs Ethereum
“When I had my kind of eureka moment and I did the back of the envelope calculation for design, I'm like, oh, this is a thousand times faster than ETH.”
Insight
Yakovenko: Tokenizing real-world assets is a regulatory, not engineering, problem
“It turns out that is a much harder legal and regulation problem than it is an engineering problem.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Yakovenko: Back-office stablecoin adoption will force users to understand cryptography
“So I think as stable coins proliferate to the back office, In a lot of companies, people will figure out, oh, the secret key is actually really important. I need hardware, I need PKI, I need trusted displays, all, all of the security stuff, and they will build…”
Insight
Yakovenko: Decentralized compute struggles against co-located, TradFi data centers
“Because they're competing with a data center that is all co-located, that is funded with traditional finance and those things, like, and yeah, you can put those assets on chain, and that, that's a lot of ways how I think things are going to integrate.”
Opinion
Yakovenko: Bitcoin's original code is the coolest software in 20 years
“The coolest piece of software written in the last 20 years is, I would say, the Bitcoin, like, Nakamoto implementation.”
Anatoly Yakovenko