Prediction Open AI assessment confidence: 99% certainty 3/5 debate potential 3/5

Friedberg: Photon-based computing will replace electron-based computing by 2100

David Friedberg · Home Affordability Crisis, Palantir's Advantage, Big Short on AI, H-1B Abuse, Solar Storm Hits Earth · Nov 14, 2025 · at 50:38

David Friedberg explains how moving from electron-based to photon-based computing will eliminate solar geomagnetic storm risks to technology infrastructure on The All-In Podcast.

0:00 / 0:22exact quote · 22.6s

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“I will say, I have a belief that I think electron-based computing is going to go by the wayside by the end of the century and be replaced with Photon-based computing, and I think we're going to move most of what we do today with copper and semiconducting material over to photonic material and photonic systems and what will ultimately be quantum meets photonic systems probably some point this century.”

quote is from the automated transcript, cleaned for reading: filler sounds and stutters are removed, nothing is rephrased. names can be misheard (the analysis reads context, assessments check outside sources). how →

The claim, plainly

Electron-based computing will be phased out and replaced by photon-based and quantum-photonic systems by the end of the century.

a quote alone can be ambiguous, so this restates it with the references and context of the conversation around it resolved. AI-written; the tape below the player is the source.

Assessment

The prediction target is the end of the century (December 31, 2100). As of 2026, current semiconductor roadmaps show rapid growth in electro-photonic integration and hybrid computing architectures, but whether photon-based and quantum-photonic systems will fully replace electron-based semiconductors across most compute infrastructure by 2100 cannot be determined today.

The specified resolution horizon is 2100-12-31.
Semiconductor market analyses through 2035 project silicon photonics growing to $27B–$32B compared to a >$1.2T traditional electronic chip market, with photonics used primarily for interconnects (optical I/O, CPO) rather than general logic replacement.

Checked against

[1] fortunebusinessinsights.com [2] imarcgroup.com [3] pwc.com [4] yolegroup.com [5] marketsandmarkets.com [6] astuteanalytica.com [7] marketresearchfuture.com [8] mordorintelligence.com

optical computing vs electronic computing future semiconductor industry report silicon photonics market size growth trends forecast 2025 2030 global semiconductor market size forecast 2030 2050 2100 electron photonic optical computing quantum photonics semiconductor market analysis "optical computing" replace electron semiconductor market share 2100 roadmap

assessed as of 2026-07-30

This assessment is an AI reading of a public statement, made against the cited references with the confidence shown. It can be wrong. The quote, the tape and the references are all on this page; if something is off, use report an error below. full disclaimer →

⏳ prediction date: 2100-12-31; checked again automatically on the next resolution wave

Mentioned

David Friedberg electron-based computing photon-based computing

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