David Friedberg
491 statements across 212 episodes · 153 bullish · 162 bearish · 4 people on the record · first statement Mar 15, 2020 by David Friedberg · said 112 times in 30 episodes since 2021 · across every show →
On the record as a speaker too: David Friedberg's record, appearances and statements → this page counts the times other people say the name.
Mentions by year
brought up most by Jason Calacanis (83), Chamath Palihapitiya (16), David Sacks (5), Ray Dalio (2), Keith Rabois (2), Dr. Nicole Paulk (1), Donald J. Trump (1), Brad Gerstner (1)
tap a year for its mentions
2026 10 mentions in 6 episodes 2 per episode
- Elon’s Anthropic Deal, The Next AI Monopoly?, “FDA for AI” Panic, Trading the AI Boom
- Iran War, Oil Shock, Off Ramps, AI's Revenue Explosion and PR Nightmare
- Anthropic's $2T IPO, Zuck's AI Manifesto, Nvidia's $500B AI Bet, Grok's Comeback
- OpenAI vs Anthropic IPOs, Anthropic $3T, Zuck's Price War, China Ends Open Source?, Trump Accounts
- Socialists Sweep NYC, China Catches Up in Coding, AI Memory Crunch, Micron's Blowout Quarter
- Anthropic's Digital God, Pope vs AI, Job Loss Narrative Flips, Open Source Crackdown Coming?
- every mention in 2026, scene by scene →
2025 32 mentions in 14 episodes 2 per episode
- Grok 4 Wows, The Bitter Lesson, Third Party, AI Browsers, SCOTUS backs POTUS on RIFs
- Tucker Carlson: Rise of Nick Fuentes, Paramount vs Netflix, Anti-AI Sentiment, Hottest Takes
- The Great Tariff Debate with David Sacks, Larry Summers, and Ezra Klein
- Trump Brokers Gaza Peace Deal, National Guard in Chicago, OpenAI/AMD, AI Roundtripping, Gold Rally
- The Next Bubble Is Already Here - Chamath Palihapitiya
- Tucker Carlson: ICE Raids, LA Riots, Strong Economic Data, Politicized Fed, War with Iran?
- Ray Dalio: US Debt Spiral, How to Avoid Disaster | The All-In Interview
- Molly's Game Uncensored: Mob Threats, FBI Raid & 100M Pots... And Still Won
- 6 more episodes that year, every mention in 2025 →
2024 21 mentions in 2 episodes 11 per episode
2023 20 mentions in 4 episodes 5 per episode
- E118: AI FOMO frenzy, macro update, Fox vs Dominion, US vs China & more with Brad Gerstner
- E134: Ukraine counteroffensive, China tensions, COVID Patient Zero, RFK Jr reaction & more
- E149: Hamas terror attacks in Israel: fallout, reaction, next steps
- All-In Summit: Gene therapy and a new era of medicine with Dr. Nicole Paulk
- every mention in 2023, scene by scene →
2022 14 mentions in 2 episodes 7 per episode
Everything said about David Friedberg, oldest first
Mar 15, 2020 negative
Mar 15, 2020 bearish
Mar 19, 2020
Friedberg: A three-month US economic shutdown costs $4.5 trillion
“The GDP of the United States is 20 trillion dollars, roughly. Every month, let's assume the whole economy shuts down. Every month that we're shut down costs us 1.5 trillion dollars. So if we're going to have the country shut down for say three months, we're lo…”
Mar 19, 2020 neutral
Friedberg: US COVID-19 fatality rate will likely be 0.15% to 1.8%
“If I were to put my money on this, look, I'm a betting guy. I would be a little bit nervous at this point, but I'd say it's probably somewhere between .15 and call it 1.8%, you know, call it, that's an order of magnitude, I know. So, you know, but you could do…”
Mar 19, 2020
Mar 19, 2020 negative
Friedberg: Broad COVID-19 mass testing is about 45 days away
“I think getting over the first hump is happening in the next, call it seven to 10 days, and so then it's probably another 30 to 45 days before we get these tests For general population testing, more broadly distributed. So call it 45 days out.”
Mar 19, 2020 negative
Friedberg: The world operates on a 30-day global food supply
“The world lives on a 30 day food supply, so if you stopped food production today, there would only be 30 days of food for the whole world to eat based on our calorie consumption per day, and especially with an isolated border, and we import a lot of food in th…”
Mar 19, 2020 positive
Friedberg: US West Coast will reopen for business around April 7th or 8th
“New York is going to be fucked for a little while, but I do think that the west coast and with some travel restrictions is going to be able to reopen for business probably around April seventh or eighth, because we're going to see a dramatic decline at that po…”
Mar 19, 2020 positive
Friedberg: US will likely shift toward federalized right-to-try laws
“I think we're gonna maybe see a big shift in policy and allow right to try laws that are gonna be federalized so, you know, states can make decisions about right to try laws and doctors and patients can try drugs on their own discretion without having a federa…”
May 21, 2020 bullish
May 21, 2020 positive
May 21, 2020
David Friedberg admits betting US COVID-19 deaths would stay under 20,000
“I asked you guys, or you guys asked me when I thought we'd be back, and I was like, oh, April seventh, we'll be back to work, and I also had a bet going with you guys, and I said we're gonna have less than 20,000 deaths in the US.”
May 21, 2020
Friedberg: US cities will not experience NYC-style second wave
“You're not going to see that in Dallas. You're not going to see that in Houston. You're not going to see that in San Diego. You're going to have more of the slow, steady burn as some risk is taken in the environment. Some risk is taken by frat parties and peop…”
Jun 20, 2020 negative
Jun 20, 2020 negative
Friedberg rejects the WHO as a trusted scientific source
“Yeah, and by the way, the World Health Organization, I've had an issue with since well before COVID just from another life, they I won't get into it, but they've said some stuff publicly that that was just flat out fucking wrong, scientifically, and invalid, a…”
Jun 20, 2020 negative
Friedberg: Six-foot indoor social distancing rule is 'bullshit'
“I don't believe in the six foot thing. I think it's bullshit. Like, if you're six foot away from someone in a room, people are coughing, and that room gets filled with those particles over a one-hour period, it doesn't matter if you're fucking six feet away or…”
Jun 20, 2020
Jun 20, 2020
Friedberg: Innocent police officer was falsely doxed in viral Maryland cyclist incident
“In that story, there was another guy who was identified first, and he was a police officer. And then people went after him, and he basically had his life ruined within those first 24 hours, and he wasn't the guy.”
Jun 20, 2020 neutral
Jun 20, 2020 bullish
Jul 11, 2020 bullish
Jul 11, 2020 neutral
A new Cold War with China could politically unify the United States
“Nothing brings us together like a common enemy. So it could be that the unification is gonna be you know, in part driven by this Cold War II and creating a common enemy in China. Is going to work for both the right and the left and create a lot of opportunity …”
Jul 31, 2020 bearish
Jul 31, 2020 positive
Friedberg argues massive corporate scale and profits are required for ambitious R&D
“By having scale, by having incredible profits, by, and then by reinvesting it in R&D, creating jobs, innovating, it's the only way this kind of stuff is going to get done. You're not going to get it done by breaking up these companies and having a hundred comp…”
Jul 31, 2020 positive
Sep 9, 2020 neutral
Sep 19, 2020 negative
Friedberg: Passed on plant-based meat companies due to flawed price assumptions
“I was wrong on this. I bet against these companies eight years ago. I didn't bet against them, but I chose not to bet for them because I made the argument consumers will only buy stuff that's cheaper and taste as good, and I was wrong.”
Sep 19, 2020 bullish
Sep 30, 2020 bullish
Oct 3, 2020 positive
Oct 3, 2020 positive
Friedberg: Trump should recover quickly from COVID due to antibody therapy
“These you know taking these antibodies to the coronavirus, and he got eight grams of this immunoglobulin therapy that is basically a bunch of antibodies that'll eliminate the virus, and they're not widely available, they're not publicly available, these treatm…”
Oct 3, 2020 neutral
Friedberg: Over 15% of patients react allergically to synthetic antibody treatment
“A lot of people north of 15% will have because antibodies, remember, they're a protein. And if your cells didn't make that protein, they look like a foreign protein when they show up in your body. And so very often when you get a foreign antibody treatment lik…”
Oct 3, 2020 neutral
Nov 4, 2020 bearish
Nov 11, 2020 bearish
Nov 11, 2020 positive
Friedberg: Political messaging will shift toward micro-segmentation over 15-20 years
“People care more deeply in a more complex way, and I think politics needs to resolve to that and that's gonna require a shift in how you communicate, how you message, how you get feedback, how you drive blocks for voting, and it's gonna you know, be a really i…”
Nov 11, 2020 neutral
Nov 11, 2020 bearish
Friedberg: Market could drop 30-40% if Democrats win Georgia runoffs
“If the Democrats look like they're getting much more money into the state and they're actually gonna, you know, get people to the polls and to the voting booths and actually get into this runoff on January fifth and actually flip get both of those seats to be …”
Nov 11, 2020
Friedberg: Georgia Senate runoff will set historic campaign spend record
“I think we're gonna see literally the biggest the biggest funding for a Senate runoff race in history by far. Don't you think, Sachs? Like, probably north of a hundred million dollars being spent. Maybe a hundred to two hundred million dollars being spent on a…”
Nov 11, 2020 bearish
Friedberg: American life will never fully return to pre-COVID normal
“I don't think you ever get there. I mean, it's like, we talked about this a couple episodes ago, but it's after nine 11, you know, the TSA emerged, and American travel never went back to the way it was before. And I think there'll be a lot about the way we liv…”
Dec 4, 2020 bullish
Dec 18, 2020 negative
Jan 8, 2021 neutral
Friedberg: 40% to 60% of COVID vaccine recipients experience side effects
“When you get a you know, a vaccine, if you get one of these vaccines, a 40% to 60% of people are gonna have some sort of reaction, you're gonna have a fever, because these are, these produce a ton of proteins in your body, relative to what you would normally, …”
Jan 11, 2021 negative
Jan 11, 2021 positive
Jan 11, 2021 positive
Friedberg: Big Tech scale benefits consumers and shouldn't be broken up
“I also think consumers benefit from the scale that they operate at. And I don't think that they should be broken up. And I think that there's economic value to having Google be at the scale it's at and Amazon being at the scale it's at and Facebook being a sca…”
Jan 23, 2021 neutral
Jan 23, 2021
Jan 23, 2021
Jan 30, 2021
Friedberg: Retail belief in stock value can create actual business success
“A stock is worth the underlying value of the company. And that that's not true. People can dream a stock to be anything. As they did with Tesla at the time that people were buying Tesla stock, the historical performance of that business was not what hedge fund…”
Jan 30, 2021 bullish
Friedberg: Censorship will drive users to decentralized trading and media
“If a group of people get together and try and use an online service to make a change in the world by sharing and talking with one another and communicating a belief, a collective belief, and that gets yanked away from them, that institution that has the abilit…”
Jan 30, 2021 neutral
Friedberg: Most assets and Bitcoin rely on collective expectations of higher prices
“Most assets are purchased under the premise that I believe the price will be higher tomorrow than it is today. And if we all believe that, then we will all buy it today. And we will all find more people buying it tomorrow. That's what Bitcoin is.”
Jan 30, 2021
Friedberg: VCs publicly criticizing rival companies is like a hedge fund short
“What I'm saying is like, I think in the private markets, we hear a lot about venture investors you know, often speaking good about their own companies, where people really get irritated is when venture investors speak bad about other companies. It's the equiva…”
Feb 3, 2021
Friedberg: Borrowing GameStop shares reached a 30% to 60% interest rate
“In the case of GameStop, I think the cost of borrow got so high that you're basically paying 30, 40, 50, 60%, you know, interest rate to borrow GameStop shares to sell them short because there was so much interest in, in selling short.”
Feb 20, 2021
Feb 20, 2021 bullish
Friedberg predicts most goods will use biological manufacturing by 2050
“I think by twenty-fifty, you know, we should see most of our goods that are manufactured rather than being made in the traditional sense, which is basically old technology scaled up which is what the industrial revolution did but really shift to a new model of…”
Feb 20, 2021
Feb 20, 2021 neutral
Feb 20, 2021 negative
Mar 13, 2021 neutral
Friedberg: Public stock portfolios will begin performing like VC portfolios
“I think you're going to see these scenarios where people will build public portfolios, public business public company portfolios that will perform Form a lot like venture portfolios, right? You'll have one or two businesses that'll have a 10 bagger and, you kn…”
Mar 20, 2021
Friedberg: a16z offered a $40M term sheet when I sought $30M
“I got my series B term sheet in 2000 eight, I guess it was. And or 2009 and I had three venture firms. Andreessen was one of them that gave me a term sheet. And the interesting thing about at that time with Andreessen was they gave me a term sheet. I was tryin…”
Mar 20, 2021
Friedberg: Early-stage startup expansion was driven by later-stage capital
“Those large chunks of capital became available and the valuation step ups were so significant for these later stage startups that the money flowed down and more money was raised in earlier stage venture that enabled this proliferation of capital and this proli…”
Mar 20, 2021 positive
Apr 1, 2021 neutral
Apr 1, 2021 positive
Friedberg: Delaying second vaccine dose would have doubled US vaccination throughput
“And so there's now very good data that shows that that would have been a better move because we would have had Double the throughput in terms of how many people we could have gotten shot in arms, if we had done that.”
Apr 17, 2021 negative
Apr 23, 2021 neutral
Friedberg: Duration of California residency determines likelihood of leaving
“I feel like it's a lot harder to leave when you've been here longer, and it's a lot easier to leave when you've been here less time. That certainly seems to be the pattern I've seen amongst friends and colleagues with respect to leaving the state.”
May 13, 2021 bullish
May 22, 2021 negative
Jun 13, 2021
Friedberg: Science could allow cloning humans from body cells within 20 years
“So in theory, in the next decade or two, we could take any hair cell from our own body, Converted into a stem cell. This is totally sci-fi. By the way, it's not proven. There's no, there's a bunch of discoveries that have been made research that's been done th…”
Jun 18, 2021 negative
Jun 18, 2021
Jun 25, 2021 bullish
Friedberg: Desktop 'vaccine printers' will download code to print local vaccines
“Well, we are going to enter a stage here in the next decade where we will have vaccine printers around the world. There are going to be small bioreactors. You're going to be able to effectively ship code to them. They're going to print vaccines.”
Jun 25, 2021 negative
Jul 9, 2021 neutral
Jul 16, 2021 neutral
Jul 16, 2021 positive
Jul 16, 2021 bearish
Jul 16, 2021 negative
Jul 16, 2021 bullish
Jul 23, 2021
Jul 23, 2021 negative
Aug 28, 2021 bullish
Sep 4, 2021 neutral
Sep 14, 2021 bullish
Friedberg: DeFi and decentralization will drive social change for 80 years
“I am convinced that the next 80 years is exactly that. Like, you know, in the physical world, there's a bunch of stuff that's going to happen. In the social world, it's going to be related to this DeFi decentralization movement that's underway.”
Sep 14, 2021 bearish
Sep 18, 2021
Friedberg: I stayed silent on startup misrepresentation due to investor pressure
“I have with at least two companies in the last year. And, you know, I've kept my mouth shut because And by the way, I don't think that there's necessarily harm going on, but I know of misrepresentation, but the investors are like, look, we'd love to see these …”
Oct 2, 2021 bullish
Oct 2, 2021 neutral
Friedberg: Social safety nets mandate restrictions on individual financial risk-taking
“If you want to get rid of one, you got to get rid of the other. And so, cause otherwise we all end up paying the cost of the person that takes the, you know, outsized risk. And then we all end up having to foot the bill for that person taking that risk. So if …”
Oct 9, 2021 neutral
Friedberg: Heavy platform regulation will drive users to unregulated decentralized alternatives
“If they start putting the regulatory hammer down on these quote unquote, platforms telling them what they can and cannot make available to their users, there will be another platform that will emerge. And that platform may end up being in this kind of decentra…”
Oct 9, 2021 positive
Friedberg: Crypto industry should form SROs for self-policing instead of government regulation
“Some of these self-regulating bodies should be formed in the crypto community. I don't know if they're doing this. I'm so naive in this space, but certainly would make sense to have an SRO form that does self-policing effectively within the community rather th…”
Oct 16, 2021 positive
Friedberg: Quantum computing will enable deterministic molecular modeling within 30 years
“Using quantum computing in the next 30 years, hopefully, we'll be able to deterministically model these behaviors on a molecular and atomic level, and as a result, kind of build new systems to make things and that'll be an incredible kind of toolkit for humans…”
Oct 16, 2021 bullish
Friedberg: Product companies with strong balance sheets will vertically integrate supply chains
“But you're increasingly going to see the businesses that have a balance sheet Step up and actually start to integrate their supply chains rather than be full stack. More, more recent is kind of this disparate set of service providers, each of which is only kin…”
Oct 16, 2021 positive
Oct 16, 2021 bearish
Friedberg: Higher interest rates will hit speculative tech stocks over mature giants
“I don't see how Portfolios are going to shed those assets. You're going to shed the more speculative. Hey, you know, we're not yet at a point of maturity. We're still at 2030 years out. Whatever. Yeah, the guys that are investing and there's no kind of line of…”
Oct 16, 2021 positive
Friedberg: Delivering valuable products to customers is far more rewarding than financial engineering
“Making a great product and selling that product and, you know, working with a customer with that product is, is honestly like the most rewarding thing you can do. It's like, you know, getting your hands dirty and actually delivering something of value in the w…”
Oct 23, 2021 bullish
Friedberg: Tech disruption cycle will persist for the next decade or two
“I don't think that this is like necessarily The, you know, the peak, it may kind of be the beginning of a continuing disruption cycle that we're going to see kind of persist for the next decade or two, especially as more of the old school industrial businesses…”
Nov 13, 2021 neutral
Friedberg: Low interest rates push market time horizons out 10-20 years
“But regardless, the market is clearly right now in in productive assets, businesses, the market is looking at a time horizon that it has never looked at before, which is making bets that are at 10 15, 20 years in the future. And that's because of the condition…”
Dec 4, 2021 neutral
Dec 11, 2021 negative
David Friedberg says mega-VCs push startups to risk failure for 100x returns.
“For their portfolio as a whole, they would rather tell everyone, go hard, go fast, spend as much money as you can, and they hope that one out of 10 companies becomes a hundred X from there. And it's okay if nine out of 10 die. So they don't care if you die. Th…”
Dec 17, 2021 negative
Friedberg: Equal outcome policies inhibit market competition and meritocracy
“I'm not a fan of equality of outcome. I'm more a fan of equality of opportunity. And I think many, many of these sorts of folks, I try and identify Methods to drive a quality of outcome, and it inhibits the competitive forces that cause the best person, the be…”
Dec 17, 2021 neutral
Dec 23, 2021 bearish
Dec 23, 2021 neutral
Dec 23, 2021 negative
Dec 29, 2021 bullish
Dec 29, 2021 bullish
Dec 29, 2021 bearish
David Friedberg accurately predicts major global conflicts and proxy wars in 2022
“I think we'll see the start of great global conflict. We often rationalize the series of events that, that catalyze conflict after the fact, rather than Recognizing that there was emotional conditioning that allowed it to arise in the first place. I think we'r…”
Dec 29, 2021 bullish
Jan 8, 2022 negative
Jan 8, 2022 negative
Jan 8, 2022 bearish
Jan 15, 2022
Jan 15, 2022 bullish
Jan 15, 2022 bearish
Friedberg predicts U.S. politicians will suppress good news on China for a decade
“I don't think we're going to hear a lot of good news about China for the next decade from any politician in the United States or anyone that wants to defend our political and economic interests globally, which are certainly being challenged by China right now.”
Jan 15, 2022 neutral
Friedberg notes the U.S. incarcerates 2.3 million compared to China's 1.7 million
“In the United States, where we have a population of let's be generous and say, four hundred million people, 2.3 1,000,340 1,000,340 million Americans, 2.3 million of whom are incarcerated. In China, with a population of 1.4 1000000001.7 million Chinese are inc…”
Jan 22, 2022 positive
Friedberg reveals Cana, a startup developing an in-home beverage printer
“What we've been working on for three years at this point is a company called Canna, which is really about, you know printing beverages in your home. So you can use a single device to print iced coffee or iced tea. Cocktail, juice, wine, soda, et cetera all usi…”
Jan 22, 2022 bearish
Friedberg predicts speculative asset bubbles will burst as capital shifts to productive assets
“The money's gonna come out one way or another. And as it starts to come out, these little bubbles are the first that are gonna pop. And that doesn't necessarily mean that the economy is at risk. It means that there are valuation bubbles that are gonna burst, t…”
Jan 29, 2022
Jan 29, 2022 bearish
Friedberg: Supply chain issues will hit company revenues by 20-30%
“And what will happen is this quarter, next quarter, Businesses that you didn't realize and didn't expect are going to get hit with supply chain problems are suddenly going to say, guess what? Our revenue is off by 20, 30% because we couldn't sell this product …”
Feb 19, 2022
Feb 25, 2022 bullish
Mar 19, 2022 bearish
Friedberg: Russian export controls will almost certainly cause widespread famine in 2022
“That are not just about sanctions, but also about export controls by Russia that are creating swings in food markets like we've never seen, and will almost certainly lead to widespread famine by the end of this year at this point.”
Mar 19, 2022
Apr 1, 2022 bearish
Apr 1, 2022
Friedberg: Managing externalities requires quantifying downstream costs and funding repair
“The first step is identifying and quantifying the external costs of the product or service that you're providing, and deciding whether or not to tax the consumer of that product, whether or not to tax the seller of that product, and ultimately how to transitio…”
Apr 1, 2022 bearish
Apr 1, 2022 negative
Apr 9, 2022 positive
Friedberg: Curiosity and coachability define founders scaling past $100B
“If you look across the range of successful founders, CEOs that scale to a hundred billion dollar plus valuations for their businesses, that to me is one of the more common threads is this kind of intellectual curiosity, which translates into a coachability, wh…”
Apr 9, 2022 negative
Friedberg: Most venture capitalists add negative value to startups
“There are most VCs, as Vinod has said publicly, add negative value. And I totally agree with him on this. Because they, many VCs, particularly the ones who aren't, you know, valuable and don't really have much to add, try to add stuff, try to say stuff, and th…”
Apr 30, 2022
May 13, 2022 bearish
May 13, 2022 bearish
Friedberg: US faces consumer credit crisis within nine to twelve months
“I really think we're going to run into a consumer credit bubble here. I do not think that consumers are going to slow down their spending or change their lifestyle as quickly as investors are changing their investing style. We have seen investors in public mar…”
May 13, 2022 neutral
May 30, 2022 neutral
Jun 7, 2022 negative
Jun 7, 2022 negative
Jun 7, 2022 bullish
Friedberg: Biomanufacturing could return billions of acres of land to nature
“And so I think that it can be extremely carbon negative. It sucks carbon out of the atmosphere. It will create incredible jobs. It's an incredible infrastructure opportunity. It would return billions of acres of land back to kind of, you know, whatever form na…”
Jun 7, 2022 positive
Jun 30, 2022 positive
Friedberg: AlphaFold solving nuclear pore structure unlocks huge therapeutic opportunities
“This is an incredible example of how AlphaFold's been used to solve this really misunderstood or never really well understood aspect of biology that is at the root cause of so much of disease and creates all this opportunity for medicine and therapeutics, rese…”
Jul 8, 2022 negative
Jul 8, 2022 neutral
Friedberg: June 2022 Monmouth poll shows climate change at 1% concern
“The Monmouth poll that was published a few days ago which is the June, 20, 22 poll, the number one concern that America, the number one thing Americans are concerned about, Nick, you could put the chart, the table in the show notes. 33% care about inflation, 2…”
Jul 14, 2022 bullish
Friedberg: Capital activity will start coming back in Q3 2022
“I do think that capital activity is going to start to come back this quarter where people are going to start to think about what to do rather than pull everything out because of the massive shift that's happened in the past couple of quarters.”
Jul 22, 2022 neutral
Friedberg: Current creative jobs will vanish but AI will create unimagined roles
“The roles that those people are in today will absolutely be gone, but they will emerge and evolve into new roles that we never even thought imaginable, that will really transform that industry and society, and this is gonna be true across everywhere that AI to…”
Jul 22, 2022 positive
Jul 22, 2022 bullish
Aug 13, 2022 negative
Friedberg: Valuation trophy hunting signals an overheated market
“Valuation, trophy hunting, I would say is a pretty good indicator of things being Explain what that is. In a heated market, like if the businesses, the CEO, the founder, the venture firms, everyone is all about how much you can mark up your investment, as oppo…”
Sep 10, 2022
Friedberg predicts peace deal trading Ukrainian territory for Russian gas
“And so my guess is huge amount of money from the West and EU going into Ukraine. Ukraine agrees to let Putin keep some regions, some assets, Putin agrees to remove himself from certain regions and give up certain assets. Sanctions are partially lifted, but the…”
Sep 10, 2022 bearish
Sep 10, 2022 negative
Friedberg: DTC marketing costs on Facebook and Google have doubled or tripled
“Cause in the last year, the cost of DTC direct to consumer marketing on Facebook and Google. Double, tripled. And a lot of the unit economics are falling apart on D to C businesses because of it you know, costs a lot more to acquire the customer than you make …”
Sep 17, 2022 negative
Oct 1, 2022 negative
Oct 1, 2022 bearish
Friedberg: Asset deflation in stocks and real estate will redistribute boomer wealth
“Once these housing prices decline and the stock market declines, that number is going to shift. And that really is what's fundamentally happening with the fiscal policy and the effects it's happening today, which is a redistribution of that value because we're…”
Oct 1, 2022 bearish
Friedberg warns of a 2008-style global capital flow freeze
“I think I mentioned a while ago that dollars were kind of locked up in March and then I went to this conference and people were like, yeah, we're loosening up and making a plan again in July because the market was kind of turning back up and now equity markets…”
Oct 1, 2022
Oct 1, 2022 bearish
Oct 14, 2022
Oct 14, 2022 bullish
Friedberg: Intersection of AI/ML and life sciences creates massive opportunity
“I do think the intersection of life sciences with software creates this era of opportunity. It would probably be something in the realm of AIML meets life sciences, where you can actually work in a leveraged way with software to drive outcomes in these importa…”
Oct 22, 2022 bullish
Oct 22, 2022 bearish
Oct 29, 2022
Oct 29, 2022 neutral
Nov 5, 2022 positive
Nov 12, 2022 negative
Nov 12, 2022
Friedberg: User access points centralize power on decentralized networks
“The user's point of access often ends up being centralized as a point on the network, and it is that point on the network that accrues the same level of influence, power, control, and value as what we saw in the prior centralized network model.”
Nov 19, 2022 negative
Friedberg: Half of recent IPOs trade at 0.2x total capital burned
“627 IPOs since 2020. More than half of them are basically half of them are trading at less at .2 times the total cash they've burned. So there, you know, you can kind of look at total lifetime capital burned by these companies in the retained earnings line on …”
Dec 10, 2022 neutral
Dec 16, 2022 neutral
Friedberg: Top 43% of post-2020 IPOs created $750B market cap
“The market cap of 43% of companies that have gone public since 2020 is seven hundred and fifty billion dollars. The market cap of three, the other 300 is only twenty six billion dollars, and the cash that went in To the seven hundred and fifty billion dollars …”
Dec 16, 2022 bullish
Dec 24, 2022 neutral
Friedberg: VCs and CEOs are adopting Musk's Twitter restructuring as a model
“Nearly every VC I speak with, every CEO, every board is looking to Elon's behavior for right or for wrong, for, you know, moral, moral or not, and saying that's a model for how you can challenge your team to achieve the impossible.”
Dec 24, 2022
Dec 24, 2022 bullish
Friedberg: Massive wave of founders building generative AI startups
“There's an absolute friggin tidal wave of people trying to start companies that are leveraging tools and generative AI to kind of reinvent everything from workplace tools, enterprise software, all the way through to media games and entertainment.”
Dec 24, 2022 bullish
Friedberg: Fusion startup count up ~40% with $10B annual capital flow
“We've seen an increase of nearly 40% in the number of fusion startups, and the amount of capital that's flowing in is now reaching ten billion a year, so this is becoming, you know, a real investable, or an area that's getting real investment.”
Jan 6, 2023 bearish
Jan 6, 2023 bearish
Friedberg: Consumer credit will hit a wall in 2023 as defaults rise
“And so I think we're going to run into a real wall with respect to consumer credit in sometime this year. And you're going to see, As you guys know, it's such a complicated, interwoven market of assets, that the way that this can be traded, there's a lot of di…”
Jan 6, 2023 bullish
Jan 13, 2023 neutral
Friedberg: Prompt-generated custom AI video games are 3-4 years away
“And then the more exciting one, I think, is when do we all get to make our own AI video game? Where we instruct the video game platform, what world we want to live in. I don't think that's happening for the next three or four years.”
Jan 13, 2023 bullish
Jan 13, 2023 neutral
Jan 20, 2023
Friedberg: U.S. cannot solve major issues without fiscal solvency and dollar credit
“You cannot address climate change or social issues or infrastructure or unemployment unless we have the ability to operate as a country over the long term and have the ability to have the continuing credit Of the United States dollar.”
Jan 20, 2023 positive
Friedberg: Harvard study demonstrates epigenetic data loss drives mammalian aging
“I was going to talk about this really fantastic paper on the, one of the driving forces of aging, as demonstrated by a team from Harvard, In collaboration with many others on epigenetics and the loss of data integrity and epigenetics really being the core driv…”
Jan 27, 2023 negative
Friedberg: COVID lockdowns yielded zero benefits while accumulating trillions in costs
“Ultimately, the benefit was zero, because we ended up accumulating, call it 10 trillion dollars of, you know, four trillion dollars of net costs that we have to pay off at some point, not to mention the economic consequences of the lockdowns. And, ah, you know…”
Jan 27, 2023 neutral
Friedberg: Moderna vaccine myocarditis risk up to 30x higher in young people
“The incidence rate is still typically less than two out of every 100,000 people that get the vaccine. But as you saw in the paper you just shared and others have validated it can be as high as 30 times more likely to happen in young people that take the Modern…”
Jan 27, 2023 bullish
Jan 27, 2023 neutral
Friedberg: Study finds persistent spike protein in post-vaccine myocarditis patients
“The big difference that they found was that the people that had Myocarditis actually had a lot of the spike protein floating around in their blood, whereas the people that didn't did not have the spike protein floating around in their blood.”
Feb 4, 2023
Feb 11, 2023 bullish
Friedberg predicts AI compute will collapse movie production costs to under $10,000
“This takes it to a whole nother level where the monopoly That big production houses have because they have the big budget so they can afford to make a big movie. If that cost of making a ten million dollar movie goes to 10,000 or a thousand dollars of compute …”
Feb 11, 2023 neutral
Friedberg explains LLMs generate non-deterministic statistical inferences, not static discrete outputs
“These are also not deterministic models, and they're not deterministic outputs, meaning that it's not a discrete And specific answer that's going to be repeated every time the model is run. These are statistical models. So they infer what the right answer coul…”
Feb 11, 2023 bullish
Feb 11, 2023 bearish
Friedberg predicts 95% of generic self-help websites will disappear due to AI
“It is more likely than not that many of these quote content publishers that aren't adding very much marginal value are going to go away. That you could see the number of content sites offering self-help advice and how to do this and how to do that. 95% of them…”
Feb 17, 2023 neutral
Feb 17, 2023 negative
Friedberg: Media framing of MrBeast's cataract video as ableism is ridiculous
“I think the, Positioning that this is ableism or whatever they term it as is just ridiculous. I think that when someone does something good for someone else, and it helps those people that are in need and want that help, it should be, there should be accolades…”
Feb 17, 2023 neutral
Feb 24, 2023
Mar 11, 2023 bullish
Mar 17, 2023 negative
Friedberg: Room-temperature superconductivity remains a perpetually distant promise like fusion
“I don't think that this stuff Has really, it's been like fusion. It's always been a promise around the corner. Physicists have always had hope we've taken incremental steps towards it. But it's always felt like one of those things where you're always getting 5…”
Mar 17, 2023 negative
Friedberg: Many university tech transfer offices operate on cronyism with preferred VCs
“Some of them are terrible, like, and some of them are cronyism. So like you go to some of the universities and the tech transfer offices have deep relationships with certain VCs and investors. That they'll only work. And they always get first picks and first d…”
Mar 24, 2023 positive
Friedberg: Broadening deposit insurance lowers overall costs by preventing bank runs
“The more you insure at this point, the cheaper the insurance will actually be. Because now you don't have this money movement problem. And so, you know, the point is, the more you insure at this point, the cheaper the insurance will actually be. If you're an a…”
Mar 24, 2023 negative
Mar 24, 2023 neutral
Friedberg: TikTok will be forced to spin off to US investors
“I think they're probably gonna have to spin this thing out. And if they hold any equity, if the Chinese parent company holds any equity interest, it'll probably be non-voting shares. And there'll be a mandate that the majority of the shares and some degree of …”
Apr 14, 2023 negative
Friedberg: Regulating autonomous AI will require restricting the open internet
“The only way to ultimately do that degree of regulation and restriction is going to be to restrict the open internet. It is going to be to have monitoring and firewalls and safety protocols across the open internet, because you can have a set of models running…”
Apr 14, 2023 bearish
Friedberg: Software publishing and startups could fade as users generate tools via AI
“I really do believe that at some point, the whole concept of publishers and publishing maybe goes away. Where, you know, much like we saw so much of the content on the internet today being user generated, you know, most of the content is made by individuals po…”
Apr 14, 2023 bearish
Friedberg: US restrictions on AI will drive tech advancement overseas
“And so if the U.S. Does try to regulate Or does try to put the brakes on the development of tools where the US can have kind of a great economic benefit and a great economic interest. There will be advances made elsewhere, without a doubt. And those markets an…”
Apr 14, 2023 bullish
Friedberg: AI platform tooling will generate multi-hundred billion dollar markets
“Now, from a business model perspective, I don't think that publishers are really the play anymore, but I do think that platforms are going to be the play. And the platform tooling that enables the individuals to do this stuff and the platform tooling that enab…”
Apr 28, 2023 bearish
Apr 28, 2023 negative
Apr 28, 2023 bearish
May 19, 2023 negative
Friedberg: Being anti-regulation on AI has become politically incorrect
“I actually think it's just politically, I think it's politically incorrect to be anti-regulation right now. I think because of what you're saying, well, just give me a second, I think because of what you're saying, Everyone on the left and the right, it's beco…”
May 26, 2023 negative
Friedberg invested over $30M into beverage startup Cana before returning customer funds
“A couple of weeks ago, we announced That we returned all the money to all our customers at Canna, which was this molecular beverage printer company I've been working on for a few years. I plowed north of thirty million dollars of our capital into building this…”
Jun 2, 2023 bullish
Jun 16, 2023 neutral
David Friedberg predicts GPT-4 training costs will drop 100x within 18 months
“If they spent four hundred million dollars in the last couple of years, you could probably assume that doing the same trading exercise could be done for five to ten million dollars, 18 months from now, to generate the same model.”
Jun 16, 2023 neutral
David Friedberg says user-generated networks gain no structural value from third-party apps
“That works well in some contexts, like an Apple app store context, but in the context where there is a network unto itself, like Facebook, Twitter, and Reddit, meaning that there is already a user network that is generating value in the form of the content tha…”
Jun 16, 2023 bearish
David Friedberg predicts the Reddit revolt will chill social network venture investing
“So I think it'll, it'll have a lasting effect in terms of investing in social network or social media type businesses where the users are generating so much of the value and have the ability to kind of communicate with one another and control Where value ultim…”
Jul 1, 2023 neutral
Aug 4, 2023
Aug 4, 2023
Friedberg: Electronic components will likely be first redesigned with superconductors
“And the first thing that would be changed is likely electronic components. So we would take electronic components and redesign them using superconducting material that would allow you to reduce heat loss and energy loss.”
Aug 4, 2023 negative
Aug 11, 2023
Aug 11, 2023 bearish
Friedberg: Institutional LPs are slashing new VC fund commitments up to 100%
“I've heard several folks talk about how they're reducing commitments by 50%, two thirds, or in some cases, a hundred percent, particularly after the mad rush for capital over the last couple of years or capital commitments, I would say for the last couple of y…”
Aug 11, 2023 positive
Aug 18, 2023 negative
Friedberg: Top 20% U.S. earnings up 60% since mid-1990s, bottom 80% flat
“So the top five percent of earners in the U.S. You know, since, call it the mid-nineties, have seen a near doubling of their earnings. The top quintile, which is the top 20% of earners in the United States, have seen their earnings climb by 60% since that time…”
Aug 18, 2023 bearish
Friedberg: Commercial real estate debt markets face total lack of buyer bids
“I mean, this guy, these guys I know that work in commercial real estate debt said they're putting out these syndicated loan proposals to the typical funders, and there's no bid. They're like, well, just tell me the rate. They're like, there is no rate. There's…”
Aug 26, 2023 bearish
Aug 26, 2023 neutral
Friedberg: Vivek Ramaswamy won on dynamism but failed on debate policy
“I think Vivek was by far the winner on dynamic. He had the hardest hitting biggest comeback with a very close second being Chris Christie. But I do think that Vivek got taken apart when it comes to content. And I have real concerns about his personality. There…”
Aug 26, 2023 positive
Sep 1, 2023 neutral
Sep 16, 2023
Sep 22, 2023 bullish
Friedberg: 100% chance existing fusion portfolio yields low-cost power in 20 years
“I think there's a hundred percent chance that the portfolio of 70 fusion companies that exist today that are pursuing this technology will succeed. And that we will get low cost power in the next 20 years at scale, right?”
Sep 22, 2023 bearish
Friedberg: LP capital and startup funding will fall significantly in aggregate
“On a day to day basis, it means there's gonna be less companies that are going to get funded, but more importantly, it's gonna be less LP money going into venture. And there's going to be less capital available to fund startups in aggregate by a significant am…”
Sep 22, 2023
Sep 22, 2023 negative
Friedberg: TED talks have become overly focused on social justice
“I went to Ted for 12 years. I started going to Ted, I think, 2007, and I felt pretty disappointed over the last couple of years. And I actually spoke to the CEO of Ted and said, I'm not going to go anymore because so much of this, the talks became kind of soci…”
Sep 22, 2023 positive
Friedberg: Inverse vaccines present a powerful way to eliminate autoimmune diseases
“This represents a very novel and seemingly super impactful and powerful way to think about eliminating autoimmune disease going forward is that we can take the antigen, and we now know the antigen or the protein that causes almost all of these autoimmune condi…”
Sep 22, 2023 positive
Sep 26, 2023 positive
Oct 2, 2023
Oct 2, 2023 neutral
Oct 20, 2023
Oct 27, 2023 neutral
Oct 27, 2023 bearish
Friedberg: Ocean heating will drive extreme weather, causing trillion-dollar economic losses
“The frequency of these events and the risk factors, which is this ocean heat temperature rising continuously for a long period of time, are going to drive that frequency of events. And there's going to be a real economic cost to bear on the order of several tr…”
Dec 1, 2023 bullish
David Friedberg: Human technology will solve climate challenges caused by human impact
“There is science that indicates that there are elements that we're Kind of affecting things in an adverse way, in a challenging way, but I'm not concerned about the challenges just because of where human technology sits and the things we can do.”
Dec 1, 2023
Friedberg: Financial abundance shifts focus to moral causes and societal reform
“Once you reach a certain point, your attention can then shift to morality. You, when you're starving in a street, And you need to feed your children. You're not focusing your whole day on the morality and better treatment of others in the world and extending, …”
Dec 1, 2023 neutral
Dec 1, 2023 neutral
Dec 1, 2023
Dec 8, 2023 positive
Dec 8, 2023
Friedberg: Deep tech in Silicon Valley is limited by talent, not capital
“I think that the challenge with Difficult technology being developed in Silicon Valley is less about a dearth of capital or a dearth of ideas or a dearth of opportunities. It's more about a dearth of talent that finding the right folks who have the capabilitie…”
Dec 8, 2023
Dec 16, 2023 neutral
Dec 16, 2023
Dec 23, 2023 bearish
Dec 29, 2023 positive
Dec 29, 2023 positive
Friedberg: Open-source local LLMs are critical to bypass AI regulation
“My best new tech of this year, I think is really important as we race to keep the promise of AI alive in the face of increasing government regulation, which is open source locally run LLMs. So you can take a, an LLM and you can run it on your machine. You don'…”
Jan 6, 2024
Friedberg's firm built in-house tool replacing $5,000 per seat SaaS vendor
“There's a vertical software provider. We're paying five grand per seat per year right now. And we look at that and we're like, okay, it's basically a data management tool for our particular vertical. Let's just go recreate that and did it very quickly, very lo…”
Jan 6, 2024 positive
Jan 6, 2024 bullish
Jan 6, 2024 negative
Friedberg: High debt combined with low growth drives international conflict
“You can't keep your societal fabric together. If you have a lot of debt and you can't grow your economy, those are two, that's a simple fact. And so that leads naturally to finding points of conflict with other nations and other places, because, you know, you …”
Jan 19, 2024
Jan 19, 2024
Jan 26, 2024 negative
Friedberg: Most fintech startups have margins identical to traditional finance
“A lot of quote fintech businesses are looking like fin businesses without the tech, meaning their margins and their LTV to CAC or their return on invested capital. It looks the same or in some cases worse than The traditional financial services businesses that…”
Jan 26, 2024
Friedberg: Startup lending customer acquisition costs jumped from $4 to $60
“There was a lending company I was involved in early on as a main shareholder, and we were spending four dollars to acquire a customer making 12 bucks a month in gross profit. Fast forward 24 months, and it was costing north of 30 to 60 dollars to acquire a cus…”
Feb 9, 2024 bullish
Feb 9, 2024 bullish
Feb 9, 2024 neutral
Feb 17, 2024 bullish
Friedberg: Consumers will generate personalized movies and games locally via prompts
“We're going to be a prompt to video, meaning people are going to have personalized video games and personalized movie experiences and music eventually, where rather than everyone watch the same product made centrally by a producer, We'll all make our own produ…”
Feb 17, 2024
Friedberg: A single power-law investment can wipe out portfolio losses
“When you're making a long term investment, you can very easily look like a moron over the short term. And to your point, the power law, all it takes is one of them to work out, and it can wipe out the losses on the rest of the portfolio.”
Feb 17, 2024 bullish
Feb 17, 2024 bullish
Mar 1, 2024 negative
Mar 16, 2024
Mar 16, 2024 positive
Friedberg: Silicon Valley culture is moving away from the cancel culture mentality
“It seems like a lot of people are less worried about cancel culture as they were three years ago. So I don't know if it's just in Silicon Valley broadly in media and broadly culturally, there seems to be a move away from cancel culture mentality and people are…”
Mar 16, 2024 bullish
Friedberg: A US TikTok ban will significantly benefit Meta, Instagram, and X
“If TikTok gets banned in the US, it's going to benefit Meta. It's going to benefit Instagram. It's going to benefit a few other, you know, social networks. It's going to benefit Elon at Twitter. There's a few folks that are going to benefit pretty significantl…”
Apr 5, 2024
Apr 12, 2024 negative
May 3, 2024 neutral
Friedberg: Gene editing applications should be patentable, but core tools should not
“I think all the applications of gene editing should be patentable and protectable, but the core tools are so powerful and important that I think it's very difficult and hard to see how we are accelerating humanity's progress by keeping these things at bay.”
May 3, 2024 negative
May 17, 2024 neutral
May 17, 2024
May 24, 2024 neutral
Friedberg: Celebrity AI value will stem from endorsement, not likeness rights
“I think what we will see over time is that rather than have the ability to sue for their likeness, a lot of AI that is like a celebrity The value of it will arise from the celebrity's endorsement, not actually using the celebrity's features.”
May 31, 2024 bearish
May 31, 2024
Friedberg states high probability COVID-19 originated from a lab leak
“I think that from my point of view, there's a very high probability that there was some leak. That meant that the work that was going on to try and get in front of the next pandemic and understand what we could do to prepare ourselves and what vaccines can be …”
Jun 7, 2024 bullish
Friedberg: AI industry will shift toward smaller targeted models over massive ones
“And it's very likely we end up seeing a lot of more smaller targeted models being used in specific applications instead of one massive general purpose model being used or networks of smaller models, which is what really where I think the industry is going.”
Jun 7, 2024 neutral
Friedberg: Major exchange IPO costs average $7.4M vs $2M for OTC listings
“There was a survey done recently that showed, I got to find some of this data, but it showed the cost of going public on NASDAQ, Amex, or the New York Stock Exchange was about 7.4 million dollars. Cost of going public through an over the counter bulletin board…”
Jun 25, 2024 positive
Jun 29, 2024 positive
Jun 29, 2024 positive
Friedberg: Practical AI value does not require large cloud models
“We're using a lot more models, and we're seeing them be very practically applied at the edge, so you don't need to have large models running on a large compute cloud to get practical value, and this is definitely a big A big point in the industry is that you'r…”
Jun 29, 2024
Jun 29, 2024 negative
Friedberg says foreign adversaries were the main winners of the presidential debate
“The big loser of last night's debate was the American public. The big winner of last night's debate was probably Russia, China, Iran, maybe the Saudis licking their chops, watching the utter dysfunction in the leadership of the party, in the leadership of the …”
Jul 10, 2024
Jul 12, 2024 bullish
Jul 12, 2024 bearish
Friedberg: US inflation unlikely to return to 2% in current era
“So it's very unlikely that we get back to a two handle, you know, at least in this kind of era and as a result, you'll probably see the market kind of assume that we're going to be at a three percent kind of inflation level for quite some time.”
Jul 19, 2024 positive
Jul 19, 2024 bullish
Jul 23, 2024 positive
Friedberg: Climate Corp generated around $30M in sales after focusing on ag in 2009
“In 2009, I focused my company on the agriculture market, which was crazy. We were in, like, seven verticals and doing all sorts of stuff. When I focused on it, again, I went deep, and I, like, went on a long hike in Iceland, and I, like, came up with this craz…”
Jul 23, 2024 bearish
Friedberg: AI custom software will become standard, blowing up SaaS model
“I think that the tooling and the capabilities to enable the enterprise to write their own custom workplace productivity tools and their own custom workplace software, whether that's customer facing or internal facing, Really becomes kind of the standard maybe …”
Jul 23, 2024 neutral
Jul 26, 2024 bearish
Friedberg: Tech sell-off reflects a deflating mini AI bubble and portfolio rebalancing
“No, I think it's definitely this Mini AI bubble deflating a bit and transactions are, let me get out of some of these high multiple tech stocks that are expected to grow rapidly because of AI and shift more into stable market recovery.”
Jul 26, 2024 negative
Friedberg: Identity politics de facto creates losers when selecting candidates by demographics
“The inevitable outcome of identity politics by giving everyone a definition on their race or their gender or their background or their religion is that you ultimately end up picking winners and losers. And you don't just get to pick winners. When you make sele…”
Jul 26, 2024
Friedberg: A major board denied a Jewish candidate chairmanship over geopolitical climate
“There was a, an individual on the board who was supposed to be elected chairman. They went in for the vote. And in that board meeting, this individual who happens to be Jewish, there was a conversation that ensued about, you can't be the chairman at this time,…”
Aug 2, 2024
Friedberg: Authentic founder CEOs build the greatest market value at scale
“And the CEOs that seem to build the greatest value are those who are typically founders because they're willing and able to be authentic because they weren't hired by the board. It's their business that they built. And so they're willing to be authentic. And t…”
Aug 2, 2024 neutral
Friedberg: Nate Silver's model gives Trump 56.9% Electoral College chance
“Harris currently has a 42.5% probability of winning the Electoral College. Trump 56.9%. Kennedy coming in at zero percent. On the popular vote, Harris has a 57.1% probability of winning the popular vote. 42.9% probability for Trump.”
Aug 9, 2024 neutral
Friedberg: JPMorgan estimates 75% of yen carry trades have unwound
“With this particular trade, JP Morgan yesterday, or a few hours ago, said that they think about 75% of the yen carry trades have now been unwound, and it was at 50% a little over a day ago, so the market has moved to kind of unwind these trades, it seems, and …”
Aug 9, 2024
Friedberg: Executives are passed over for leadership roles for being Jewish
“All I know is that there have been other conversations I've been privy to behind closed doors where senior people have been passed over because they are Jewish and because of the concerns of someone Jewish being viewed to be in a leadership position in an orga…”
Aug 16, 2024 negative
Friedberg: Food inflation stems from government spending, not corporate price gouging
“The real cause of price inflation in food is not the supposed price gouging by corporate players in the ag and food industry, all of whom are deeply competitive with one another, but rather is the result of the inflation associated with government spending and…”
Aug 16, 2024 negative
Aug 16, 2024 positive
Aug 23, 2024 neutral
Aug 23, 2024 neutral
Friedberg: Core education has commoditized in the digital era
“Well, I do think in a digital era, core education has commoditized, and I think most people can get most of the way there without necessarily paying 60 to 80,000 dollars a year, and then being partnered in some way With that on the ground internship or integra…”
Aug 30, 2024 negative
Friedberg: Canned soda is the #1 item bought on SNAP food stamps
“The SNAP program provides food stamps to support forty-two million Americans. Forty-two million people rely on food stamps. It costs a hundred twenty billion dollars of federal money per year. And as Bobby said, the number one product bought on the food stamp …”
Sep 27, 2024 bullish
Friedberg: AI will drive a surge in demand and salaries for human service jobs
“One of the complimentary consequences of that is that there will be an emerging premium for human service. And I think that there will be an absolute burgeoning and blossoming in the salaries and the availability and demand for human service in a lot of walks …”
Sep 27, 2024 bearish
Friedberg: Mobile handsets will no longer exist in ten years
“I don't think that mobile handsets are going to be around in 10 years. I don't think we're going to have this, like, phone in our pocket that we're like, Pressing buttons on and touching and telling it where on the browser to go to the browser interface is goi…”
Sep 27, 2024 bearish
Friedberg: Functional managers no longer need data analysts due to AI
“Everyone that owns a function no longer needs an analyst. The analyst is the model that's sitting on the computer in front of you right now, and you tell it what you want, and not days later, but minutes later, you get your answer.”
Oct 3, 2024
Friedberg: Post-stimulus inflation unfolded precisely as Larry Summers warned
“He did make that declaration against his own party, Mark, and he said this is the wrong thing. As a Democrat, he said this is the wrong thing to do, and they went forward with what they planned to do for various reasons. Some would argue political, some would …”
Oct 3, 2024
Oct 11, 2024
Oct 11, 2024 bearish
Friedberg: 100-year storms will happen every two to three years
“And those continuously warmer oceans means that we're going to have what used to be called a one in 500 year storm, which is what Asheville is being termed at one in 500 year. These sorts of storm events can happen every couple years. And we're now looking at …”
Oct 11, 2024
Oct 11, 2024
Friedberg: Phoenix high-heat days reached 70 days in 2024
“In the early 1900, the city of Phoenix, Arizona averaged five days a year of temperatures of a 110 degrees or warmer. By the 20 tens, Phoenix averaged, during the 2010, 27 days a year, where the temperature was one 10 or higher. Since 2021, Phoenix averaged...…”
Oct 25, 2024 bearish
Oct 25, 2024 negative
Nov 6, 2024 neutral
Nov 16, 2024 positive
Nov 16, 2024 bearish
Nov 16, 2024
Nov 23, 2024 bearish
Nov 23, 2024 positive
Dec 7, 2024 negative
Dec 7, 2024 bullish
Friedberg: AI will handle software QA, UX, and marketing within 12 months
“And you fast forward 12 months and now you've got the architecture Where the AI can run its own QA testing and debugging and the AI can run its own kind of sales and marketing its own UX of the application and it can run everything.”
Dec 13, 2024 neutral
Dec 13, 2024
Friedberg: VC valuation expectations, not financial markets, freeze exit liquidity
“On the general liquidity thing, I don't think that the thing holding up acquisitions and IPOs is markets. I actually think it's investor and board expectations on valuation relative to where they put money in the last couple of years.”
Dec 13, 2024 neutral
Jan 4, 2025 bullish
Friedberg predicts massive funding deals for US hardware manufacturing in 2025
“I do think that there's going to be massive funding deals similar to what we saw this past year for compute build out. I think we're going to see massive funding deals for hardware based manufacturing build out in the United States.”
Jan 4, 2025 positive
Friedberg predicts emerging political candidates will shift significantly younger by late 2025
“I do think that this marks the beginning of a new trend in the kind of age range of political candidates shifting younger. So I think that this is something we should expect as candidates start to emerge for the midterm. By the end of 2025, we'll start to see …”
Jan 4, 2025 bullish
Friedberg predicts 2025 will be the year of robotics and autonomous hardware
“So I feel like we're at a really interesting inflection point. That is going to make 2025 the year of autonomous hardware or robotics. If 2024 was the year of kind of compute build out and the rollout of AI systems in software, I think 2025 will be the year of…”
Jan 11, 2025 negative
Friedberg: Public service agencies should prioritize serving the public over DEI
“I don't think that the mission of any public service organization should be to meet DEI metrics. I think the mission of that public service organization should be to serve the public. And I think that those DEI metrics should not be a priority when serving the…”
Jan 18, 2025 bearish
Jan 18, 2025 positive
Jan 18, 2025 negative
David Friedberg: Price controls harm LA wildfire recovery by suppressing contractor supply
“The second order effect is you're actually hurting the market and you're hurting the rebuild effort because you're reducing the incentive for folks to come in and fill the void in the market that is necessary for us to accelerate the development of 15,000 home…”
Jan 20, 2025 positive
Jan 20, 2025 neutral
Jan 20, 2025 bullish
Jan 20, 2025 neutral
Jan 20, 2025 bullish
Friedberg: GLP-1 agonists show health benefits beyond weight loss
“And like, the effects in some of the recent studies on the GLP-I agonists is it's not just weight loss, but there's like anti-inflammatory effects. They had good phase two on Alzheimer's. There's kidney disease. Hypertension. And crazy enough, they've got an i…”
Jan 20, 2025 neutral
Jan 20, 2025 neutral
Jan 20, 2025 neutral
Friedberg: Indoor inauguration shift cost seven-figure donors their VIP seats
“A lot of people donated a lot of money, came out to the inauguration, had special VIP tickets. There was a whole setting with all the seats and where they were supposed to be, and then when they moved it all indoors, a lot of people lost their seats, and they …”
Jan 25, 2025 negative
Friedberg: Forcing TikTok equity surrender sets dangerous precedent for US firms abroad
“I do worry a lot about the precedent being set here with respect to foreign government actions on U.S. Companies in their local countries. Imagine the CCP tells Tesla they have to sell their Chinese operations and give 50% of the Chinese operations to the Chin…”
Jan 25, 2025 bearish
Jan 31, 2025
David Friedberg's Eatsa generated $3 million annually from an 800-square-foot store
“We built these Itza restaurants that were smaller footprint. We had an 800 square foot restaurant that was doing three million a year in revenue, and it had a handful of people working in it, but we were putting about 800 people an hour during the lunch rush t…”
Jan 31, 2025 negative
David Friedberg argues specialized AI model networks will beat monolithic models
“It doesn't make sense to have one large do everything model. This mixture of experts architecture, ultimately you can kind of think about taking a large model, making two copies of it, and then trying to shrink each model down to whatever the necessary, so tha…”
Jan 31, 2025
Feb 7, 2025 bullish
Friedberg: GLP-1 weight-loss products will grow dramatically by eliminating cognitive load
“This is why these products are successful, and I think will be continue to grow pretty dramatically, Antonio, is because it is pop a pill, and it solves all those problems. It doesn't require a cognitive load.”
Feb 10, 2025 positive
Friedberg: GLP-1 drugs provide health benefits independent of weight loss
“So we know that the GLP-I receptor agonist means that it binds to these GLP-I sites, and there's a cascading effect of genes that then get expressed. And what that seems to do is turn off things like inflammatory markers. It turns on things like CERC-II genes,…”
Feb 10, 2025 positive
Feb 23, 2025 positive
Friedberg: Executive leadership is about organizational success, not coddling employees
“My job is not to coddle my employees. My job is to lead my employees so that our organization, our team wins and we achieve our mission. That's the objective. It's not to create a family workplace for everyone to be happy all the time. It's to help the organiz…”
Mar 1, 2025
Mar 8, 2025
Mar 8, 2025
Mar 15, 2025 negative
Mar 15, 2025 negative
Mar 15, 2025 bullish
Friedberg: Skin-cell IVF will allow people to produce offspring at any age
“So in the next couple of years, there's, you know, there's a few little technical breakthroughs that are happening right now that will enable this, where fertility clinics may end up just taking a little bit of your skin cell, creating stem cells, creating egg…”
Mar 15, 2025
Mar 15, 2025 negative
Friedberg: Using tariff threats as a negotiating bluff becomes easily exploitable
“Once everyone knows that there's this kind of action, it's exploitable. And so this is now kind of an exploitable mode of negotiation where everyone now assumes he's just trying to negotiate, so no one actually takes him seriously.”
Mar 29, 2025 positive
Mar 29, 2025 negative
Apr 3, 2025
Apr 3, 2025
Apr 3, 2025 bullish
Friedberg: Indistinguishable AI newscasters will generate personalized feeds within years
“Maybe you end up getting your personal newsfeed with the newscaster, or the podcaster, or the Knicks superfans reading to you what happened at the game last night, that's Gen AI completely, and it's indistinguishable from reality. That's where I think things m…”
Apr 3, 2025 neutral
Apr 3, 2025 neutral
Apr 3, 2025 negative
Apr 4, 2025 bearish
Apr 19, 2025 bullish
Apr 19, 2025 bullish
Friedberg: Mitochondrial therapy could become a major new therapeutic modality
“So this opens up the door to this whole new therapeutic modality, a new type of therapy called mitotherapy or mitochondrial therapy that based on the series of papers that we're seeing coming out recently, I believe could end up becoming a really incredible ne…”
Apr 24, 2025 negative
May 24, 2025
Friedberg: Millions have undiagnosed health conditions caused by undetected genetic mutations
“There are likely millions of people out there that have some health condition that they've not yet been able to identify because it's a genetic mutation, and not everyone can afford to go out and just get their genome sequence to figure out where the mutation …”
May 24, 2025 positive
May 24, 2025 positive
Friedberg: Custom in vivo CRISPR base editing was administered to a human patient for the first time
“This is the first time that we've seen this kind of custom CRISPR gene editing for a genetic mutation being applied to a patient in vivo in the blood for a specific target for a specific particular treatment.”
May 31, 2025 bullish
May 31, 2025 bullish
Friedberg: AI revolution will reduce workweek to under 30 hours
“And now I think the next phase is we're going to end up in less than 30 hours a week with people making more money and having more abundance for every dollar that they earn with respect to what they can purchase and the lives they can live.”
May 31, 2025 bullish
Friedberg: AI will ultimately create far more jobs than it destroys
“So generally speaking, I think that the premise that AI destroys jobs is wrong because it doesn't take into account the significantly higher return on invested capital, which means more capital is going to be deployed, which means actually far more jobs are go…”
May 31, 2025 bullish
Jun 19, 2025
Jun 19, 2025 positive
Jun 21, 2025 bearish
Friedberg: Microsoft faces core application revenue decline within next five years
“I do think that there's a real probability of revenue decline in the next five years. So if you look at the enterprise install base, I think that cloud gets competed away. So I do think like on the application software layer, they're going to have a really har…”
Jun 21, 2025 bullish
Jun 28, 2025
Jul 4, 2025 bullish
Friedberg: AI tutoring could give developing nations free Harvard-equivalent education
“And we could see kids in Africa and kids in South Asia getting the equivalent of a Harvard graduate school degree at a cost of zero through personalized tutoring enabled through AI and the ubiquitous access to knowledge and information.”
Jul 23, 2025 positive
Aug 1, 2025
Friedberg: Tariffs cause inflation in thin-margin sectors but not in monopolies
“So I think in some of these categories, we will see significant inflation where there is a very thin margin that the seller has in selling. And in some of the categories where there's a monopoly and they have a big margin, they're going to eat it because they …”
Aug 1, 2025 neutral
Aug 9, 2025 bearish
Aug 9, 2025 negative
Aug 9, 2025
Aug 9, 2025 positive
Friedberg: Effective AI UX requires automated routing over manual model selection
“I think this is really important from a user experience perspective for AI to work. You don't want users going in and technically choosing which model. No one understands what those letters and numbers mean. You want to have a very simple, clean, basic interfa…”
Aug 9, 2025 negative
Aug 9, 2025 bullish
Aug 15, 2025 negative
Aug 15, 2025 negative
Friedberg: Ending federal student loans is the only path forward for higher ed
“I believe a hundred percent in ending the federal student loan program. And I think that it will force a restructuring of the entire higher education system in the United States, which no one wants to hear, no one wants to do, and everyone's against. But I thi…”
Aug 15, 2025 positive
Aug 22, 2025 bullish
Friedberg: AI will mirror dot-com cycle with massive long-term value
“The dot-com boom was a, became a bubble that burst, but the ultimate promise of the internet was realized many orders of magnitude greater than I think, you know, most folks declared and proclaimed at the time. It was just delayed by a few years. I think it's …”
Aug 22, 2025 neutral
Friedberg: Socialist candidate like AOC will likely emerge for Democrats in 2028
“I think there's a, as I've talked about many, many times, a very high probability that someone who's a little bit more socialist aligned is going to end up being kind of thrust forward here, and I think AOC fits the bill there.”
Aug 22, 2025 bullish
Aug 27, 2025
Eliminating flat or down rounds would double VC fund IRRs, says Friedberg
“45% of their capital went into flat or down rounds, and they had a negative net return on that allocation of capital across 13 funds, and if they had put that, if they had never invested in flat or down rounds, Then they would have doubled their IRR overall as…”
Aug 29, 2025 bearish
Friedberg: Dropping short-term rates will spike 30-year bond yields via inflation
“The problem is, as a lot of economists have talked about, and as we've seen in the bond market, is that that could Really push up the long end of the curve, because if you suddenly start to flood the market with capital in the short term by dropping rates toda…”
Aug 29, 2025 neutral
Sep 4, 2025 neutral
Friedberg: Physical retail leases act as fixed debt obligations
“The retail channel, like others, is highly levered because in order to have a retail store, you have to pay a monthly fee to the physical real estate owner, and so it's unlike other businesses that are services or are more nimble and can relocate, you actually…”
Sep 19, 2025 negative
Friedberg: The West is committing suicide via debt, demographic decline, and war
“Much of what we see in terms of The evolution of society in the West can be viewed through a lens of Suicide. That the West may be committing suicide financially in our deficit spending, in terms of birth rate decline, so we're kind of destroying our dollar, w…”
Sep 19, 2025 bullish
Friedberg: Merging social platforms and studio content will challenge Netflix and YouTube
“So I do think that the distribution that Has been delivered by this kind of social media model, like YouTube and TikTok combined with the premium model may end up creating a real category killer that can challenge both YouTube and Netflix.”
Sep 19, 2025
Sep 19, 2025 positive
Friedberg: Charlie Kirk exemplified open debate better than anyone in modern media
“And I think that was one of the things that Charlie exemplified better than anyone in this kind of modern media genre is showing people that you can have a discourse, you can have a debate, you can have a dialogue in the same way that as a group, we've had fig…”
Sep 19, 2025
Friedberg: Charlie Kirk was targeted for his effectiveness, not controversy
“I think it wasn't his controversy, it was his effectiveness. He was too smart, too open, too honest, too willing to engage in discourse, too willing to debate. He was too effective in changing people's minds, and I think that's why he became such a cultural th…”
Sep 27, 2025 neutral
Oct 3, 2025 neutral
Friedberg: Existing statutes already cover potential AI harms
“Much of the civil and criminal statutes that already exist in the States cover much of the harm that is already being talked about as the potential safety risks associated with AI. You don't actually need more because at the end of the day, if the AI system, t…”
Oct 18, 2025 neutral
Oct 18, 2025
Oct 18, 2025 bullish
Oct 24, 2025 negative
Oct 24, 2025 negative
Oct 24, 2025 negative
Nov 7, 2025 neutral
Nov 14, 2025 bullish
Friedberg: Photon-based computing will replace electron-based computing by 2100
“I will say, I have a belief that I think electron-based computing is going to go by the wayside by the end of the century and be replaced with Photon-based computing, and I think we're going to move most of what we do today with copper and semiconducting mater…”
Nov 14, 2025 negative
Nov 14, 2025 neutral
Nov 22, 2025 neutral
Nov 22, 2025 bullish
Friedberg: Huawei will deploy undisclosed lithography to rival top chips by 2026
“My early prediction for 20, 26 is Huawei where I think that there's a lithography technology that exists in China that is not publicly discussed. That is going to be deployed in Huawei and all these fabs that they're building in mainland China. And Huawei can …”
Nov 22, 2025 neutral
Nov 22, 2025 positive
Friedberg: AI chips will transition from general GPUs to special-purpose architectures
“I think what we will See over time is probably a differentiation of general purpose workhorses in chip architecture to more of these kind of special purpose chips that work well with certain models and certain applications.”
Nov 22, 2025 negative
Nov 22, 2025 negative
Nov 22, 2025 neutral
Friedberg: The Production Board halts new investing to pivot entirely to Ohalo
“I'm not doing any new investing. Actually, a lot of folks moved into Ohalo or moved out to stop doing new investing, and then slowly we're kind of, as we have a liquidity event, we'll do a distribution, but the goal is for TPB To end up being a holding company…”
Dec 19, 2025 neutral
Dec 24, 2025 negative
Dec 24, 2025 negative
Dec 31, 2025 bearish
Jan 10, 2026 bearish
Friedberg: State pension liabilities will trigger a crisis in 2026
“I think the other thing that's going to hit the fan this year in state governments is all of these unrealized pension liabilities. I think when these numbers start to come out this year, and a lot of people are now digging deep into it, Folks are going to wake…”
Jan 10, 2026 bullish
Jan 10, 2026 negative
Friedberg: Middle East conflict will increase among Gulf states if Iranian regime falls
“That there may be more conflict brewing in the Middle East than anyone anticipates for this year that will not necessarily involve Israel and or Iran. It will actually be amongst the other Gulf states as they vie for influence and power, and that the contraria…”
Jan 17, 2026
Friedberg: US electricity spend totals $750B annually on 4T kWh consumed
“We consume in this country about four trillion kilowatt hours of electricity. Average price is 18 cents a kilowatt hour. So it's about, call it, seven hundred fifty billion dollars of spend on electricity every year. One third of that, two hundred fifty billio…”
Jan 17, 2026 negative
Jan 17, 2026 negative
Jan 31, 2026 negative
Feb 7, 2026 bullish
Feb 7, 2026 bullish
Feb 28, 2026 negative
Friedberg: Restricting US data center expansion will shift economic value overseas
“If we don't put them here, someone else will put them on their shores, someone else will put them in their country, someone else will put them in their jurisdiction, and a lot of the economic value that arises from the people that will build those facilities, …”
Feb 28, 2026 bearish
Feb 28, 2026
Friedberg: Humans need 10% annual purchasing power growth to be happy
“Humans have this desire to improve their livelihoods by roughly 10% every year. Meaning, like, your income and your ability to purchase stuff that's new relative to where you were last year has to go up by 10% for you to be happy. If it's less than 10%, you're…”
Mar 17, 2026 negative
Mar 17, 2026 neutral
Friedberg: Tech group raising $500M for California political coalition
“So there's a group of people trying to raise five hundred million dollars to create like a tech slash business coalition to go to Sacramento, which arguably is something that everyone's left and avoided doing forever because no one wants to spend time in freak…”
Mar 19, 2026 positive
Friedberg: Auto research script accomplished seven-year PhD thesis in 30 minutes
“Using auto research and a chunk of data, something was published internally that we said, oh my god, and that would normally be a PhD thesis that would take seven years, that would be one of the most celebrated PhD pieces we've ever seen in this field, and it …”
Mar 19, 2026 positive
Friedberg replaced entire software stack in 90 minutes using Claude agents
“Replaced a whole software stack and, like, a whole bunch of workload. 90 minutes on Claude ran this agentic system, built the whole thing, deployed it, and we got, we were all. On a Sunday night. On a Sunday night, 10 p.m., I was done at 11:30, I went to bed.”
Mar 27, 2026 negative
Mar 27, 2026 bullish
Friedberg: Consumer AI subscriptions will surpass cable TV peak adoption
“And AI that can book your travel, answer questions for you, track your calendar, do your email, et cetera, is likely going to be the most valuable, call it meta service that consumers have ever seen. And I think it's very likely that we're going to end up seei…”
Mar 27, 2026 bullish
Mar 27, 2026 bullish
Friedberg: AI will enable complex businesses to achieve 10x productivity
“And it's going to expand the work productivity of that organization, not just create new features, which is what we focus on when we talk about software companies, but really imagine a complex business being able to do 10 times the output it can do today with …”
Mar 27, 2026 positive
Mar 27, 2026 negative
Friedberg: Tort lawyers are among the largest U.S. political donors
“The tort lawyers are one of the largest donors in political elections in the United States. They donate largely to Democrats in local elections and Republicans in national elections, and then they are the largest donor class to elections of judges.”
Mar 27, 2026 positive
Friedberg: Anthropic's anti-Trump stance is genuine, not a recruiting trick
“No, I think he actually believes it, and I think they've actually Created and fostered a culture of that since the beginning, and I think that they're representing it as a branding exercise at this point, but I don't think it's made up. I think it's directly r…”
Mar 27, 2026 negative
Friedberg: Tort litigation costs the U.S. $900 billion annually
“Tort litigation, you know, costs our economy, nine hundred billion dollars a year in the United States. Nine hundred billion a year. That's how much is spent on the litigation costs, the settlements, the judgments. It's three percent of GDP. And it's growing r…”
Apr 3, 2026 bearish
Apr 3, 2026 bullish
Friedberg: Shipping goods from the Moon will cost less than terrestrial freight
“It will cost less to move goods, manufactured goods, processed ore precious metals from the Moon to a specific point on Earth. It will cost less to do that than to ship it using any other terrestrial conventional method, whether that's a boat, an airplane, or …”
Apr 17, 2026 neutral
Friedberg believes the Democratic establishment wants Katie Porter for California Governor
“My sense of it is that there are certain insiders, and he's not an insider, and those insiders are like the Katie Porters of the world. Katie Porter, I think, is who the Democratic establishment wants to be governor.”
Apr 17, 2026 bullish
Apr 24, 2026 positive
May 15, 2026 positive
Friedberg: China trade deals boosting US jobs would be major Trump victory
“From an administration political perspective, it just seems like this is going to be a major coup for the president if he can walk away with a series of trade deals with China that increase job security, increase prosperity, increase income levels, increase in…”
May 15, 2026 neutral
May 15, 2026 bearish
Friedberg: Upcoming year will be the hottest year on record
“And over the next few months, that energy is going to be released into the atmosphere. And that will absolutely, 99% confidence, that will make the upcoming year the hottest year on record by far That humans have ever experienced, or at least that we've experi…”
Jun 4, 2026 positive
Friedberg: Rebalancing into top 10 NASDAQ stocks outperforms index 3x over a decade
“There was that study that showed if you bought, I'm sorry to interrupt, but if you bought the NASDAQ over a 10 year period, you get like a three X multiple or something quite significant. If you just rebalanced every year on the top 10 companies in the NASDAQ.…”
Jun 12, 2026 positive
Jun 12, 2026 bearish
Jun 13, 2026 bearish
Jun 13, 2026 negative
Jun 13, 2026 bearish
Jun 13, 2026 negative
Jun 13, 2026 negative
Friedberg: California election system allows candidates to be appointed, not elected
“It has been set up and structured in a way that with the right construct, you can get an individual appointed, not elected, but appointed to a particular role in government under a, quote, free election in California.”
Jun 19, 2026 bullish
Jul 3, 2026 bullish
Friedberg: Society will pay a premium for human involvement within 18 months
“Human in the loop will be the premium, and we will all realize in the next year and a half, the importance of human in the loop, even in the context of AI and automation working, human in the loop is going to be more valuable, and then you're going to pay a pr…”
Jul 3, 2026 bullish
Friedberg: Enterprise AI architecture moves to local models and on-prem spokes
“I think what everyone's realizing is they're better off Developing their own weights and their own models using either an open source basis, or there might be some intermediary business model that evolves, meaning there will end up being several large hubs tha…”
Jul 18, 2026 positive
Friedberg: eBay and PayPal deals signal wave of legacy digital buyouts
“I think that eBay and PayPal are probably the beginning of a wave of mega deals of call it flaccid, you know, digital businesses. That can be revived. With the blue chew of capital and the right operator. Again, I think that there's probably a big wave of this…”
Jul 24, 2026 negative
Friedberg: China wants to commoditize AI to dominate global manufacturing
“And I think that's the long game for China over a decade, two, three decade process, is by compressing the knowledge economy and the services economy, commoditizing it completely, they are left holding all the value in the global economy because they can make …”
Jul 24, 2026 negative
Friedberg: Courts won't rule AI processing digital knowledge as copyright infringement
“Knowledge can't be contained. It's diffuse. And so the form of copyright is very clear. The case law and copyright is very clear. I cannot lift text out of your book, reprint it, and claim it as my own. That is a violation of copyright. But my reading of your …”
Jul 24, 2026 negative
Jul 30, 2026 positive
Friedberg: Converting copyrighted data into AI knowledge will be upheld as fair use
“I do think fundamentally that the conversion of that data into what I would call knowledge and ultimately the ability to create new outcomes from that knowledge that are not copyrighted, that are not copies of the original material, I do think is going to end …”
Jul 30, 2026 bearish
Friedberg: Emergent biological complexity extends far beyond any silicon AI model
“In a single cell, there's ten billion proteins that work so fast that one second is the equivalent of 80 years of humans walking around the city of Manhattan, never sleeping, doing stuff together.
With 500 story tall skyscrapers doing stuff for 80 years is 1:0…”
Jul 30, 2026 neutral
Aug 12, 2026 negative
Aug 29, 2026 bearish
Aug 29, 2026 bearish
Sep 12, 2026 negative
Friedberg says commercial AI models regurgitated his proprietary scientific queries
“I have had experience where we've asked some fairly novel scientific questions and it identifies it as a novel insight. Is that, oh, never thought about that. Be interesting. Like blah, blah, blah. And then using a different account asking the same model later…”
Sep 12, 2026 positive
Friedberg: AI is a leverage tool, not an incomprehensible super-intelligence
“AI is a tool of leverage. For humans. AI is not some magical genius super god that sits above us that understands things we don't understand. Every piece of the open AI message set that went back and forth between these agents is documented, can be read by peo…”
Sep 12, 2026 neutral
Sep 12, 2026 neutral
Friedberg: OpenAI's math solution equaled tens of thousands of human work years
“What happened was the AI just did a bunch of brute force work to come up with this answer. And the work was done across many, many computers. 10,000 agents just means 10,000 applications running on a computer, talking back and forth to one another, sharing inf…”