The Calls
Every prediction date that has already passed, checked against the public record: green held up, red didn't hold up, amber partly held up. Diamonds at the right edge were assessed before their prediction date arrived.
Everyone Chamath Palihapitiya (116)Jason Calacanis (75)David Sacks (67)David Friedberg (61)Brad Gerstner (17)Gavin Baker (11)Elon Musk (9)Howard Lutnick (5)Dr. Mehmet Oz (5)Donald J. Trump (5)Cathie Wood (5)Ray Dalio (4)
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The record (752) every resolved claim →
Chamath: Global copper supply will be short 70% by 2040
“And right now, Jason, we are on a path by 2040 where we will be short about 70% of the global supply at current course and speed.”
Chamath: $30 trillion wealth transfer will occur over 20 years
“And we are about to go through over the next 20 years, 30 trillion dollars of wealth transfer.”
Sacks predicts no new U.S. gun control legislation for a generation
“There's not going to be any new gun control legislation for a generation because of the looting and writing that's going on Gun sales are at an all-time high.”
Taneja: AI will enable Theranos-style single-drop blood diagnostics within 10 years
“I think it's very likely because the challenge with this is how can you actually manufacture Those nano devices where you can take really low volumes and be accurate and measure these things. Technology wasn't there. So when you're going back to our hardware m…”
Travis Kalanick warns expanding California's grid by 10% will take years
“Even getting 20% more, 10% more is going to be a gargantuan five to 10 year exercise.”
Raboy: Quantum computing is at least a decade away from commercial applications
“First of all, I think there's a long time before this becomes a commercial product or application of any sort. So, you know, it's great that they're taking money, but think about it as like almost like Stanford takes money or the U S government funds basic res…”
Phillips: Social Security faces ~25% benefit cuts by 2033
“Social Security, the trust fund, will face probably reductions in 25, about 25% cut levels by twenty-thirty-three, based on the current path.”
Calacanis: DAO capital pools will reach $4 billion within ten years
“So what we're going to see I predict is this forty million dollar Dow will turn into a 400,000,001 in the next two years and then a 4,000,001 in the next 10.”
Calacanis predicts AI platforms will settle with content owners over training data
“There'll be a settlement where they are going to be able to claim their content.”
Calacanis: Music industry rightsholders will win AI copyright lawsuits
“That's why I think the music industry is going to win, and some other places are going to win”
Gerstner: US government will take action against AI model distillation
“I think the US government is going to take steps against distillation, which they should do.”
Dreyfus: Building 15 GW of AI factories yearly will require 750k tons of copper
“Data centers for a one gigawatt AI factory now, you need 50,000 tons of copper per gigawatt, and we're gonna start building 15 gigawatts of these things per year.”
Dreyfus: Standard electrification will trigger US power shortfalls without AI
“Now, if we simply just want to achieve our objectives to re-industrialize, re-shore, electrify, when I say electrify, that just means replacing your old gas boilers in these buildings with heat pumps, which every commercial building is doing. It means, you kno…”
Gerstner: SpaceX will use an innovative lockup structure for its IPO
“With respect to the lockup, I think this is the most innovative, and I think SpaceX is going to have a very similar innovation.”
Sacks predicts Washington regulatory push will eventually ban open-source AI
“In terms of the red capture agenda that you're seeing in Washington, I think where it's all leading to is an effort to ban open source models or open weight models.”
Chamath predicts Spencer Pratt will win the Los Angeles mayoral election
“And Spencer Pratt, if he wins this election, which I think he's going to in Los Angeles, the reason is what Brad said.”
Calacanis: ChatGPT consumer market share will drop well under 50%
“They're going to be well under 50% market share, and I think ChatGPT is going to have some big challenges there on the consumer side.”
Friedberg: Kevin Warsh will modernize Fed data to real-time digital systems
“You could probably make a bet or an investment on the idea that Kevin Warsh will lead the Fed to a new digital, better data system, more streamlined, more frequent, better data.”
Friedberg: Advanced AI models will ultimately run locally on iPhones
“Ultimately these things end up on the iPhone running locally, and you don't need to go to the cloud.”
Armstrong: AI agents will use stablecoins and crypto wallets for payments
“AI agents, I think, are gonna use stablecoins and wallet, crypto wallets.”
Natural gas power will meet most near-term US grid growth
“But in between now, 20, 25 and 20 30 a lot of it's going to come back to LNG because that the fastest thing we can get online for more electricity generation is LNG power plants.”
Lochmiller: Data centers will drive 20% of US power demand growth
“Data centers are forecasted to account for 20% of the growth in power demand between now and 2030.”
Calacanis: Global annual rare earth mineral consumption will double by 2030
“You guys probably know we use about a 150 thousand metric tons a year right now. That's gonna double by 2030.”
Calacanis: Dutch emissions targets will force farmers to reduce livestock
“They're targeting a 50% cut nationwide by 20, 30 livestock produces these emissions. So the plan will likely force Dutch farmers to cut their livestock herds or stop working altogether.”
Tucker Carlson predicts Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro will not leave power
“This is all an effort to get Maduro to leave. I don't think he's leaving.”
Friedberg predicts economic growth will produce the world's first trillionaire
“And I think that some folks will see people go from being billionaires to hundred billionaires to the world's first trillionaire.”
Sacks: Federal forces will deploy to Memphis following governor's invitation
“In Memphis, they have been invited by the Republican governor to go in and help, and so they will.”
Sacks predicts Trump administration will support federal preemption of AI laws
“So I think the administration ultimately will support this.”
Friedman: Official market open and close will persist in 24/5 trading
“The market open and the market close will continue to exist in a world of 24 five markets.”
Calacanis: The EU and Germany will never buy Russian oil again
“These people are never going to buy his oil again. Not after what happened here.”
Sacks: Trial lawyers will use AI psychosis claims to sue tech companies
“And then the trial lawyers are going to love it because it gives them a new basis for suing all these companies.”
Friedberg: Developers will create AI models tailored to specific religious beliefs
“I do think we'll end up seeing religious AI. I think we'll see AI that's Cue into people's religious ways”
Chamath predicts Amazon will face Facebook-level antitrust scrutiny within 5-10 years
“Amazon today I don't think is at risk just because its end market is so big, but I think within five or 10 years it definitely will be looked at through the same lens as Facebook and Google and actually just those two.”
Friedberg predicts Israel will take further military action against Iran
“I can tell you, I don't think the Israelis are gonna sit by quietly and allow this Iranian regime to continue to go out and build up a military that's constantly shouting death to Israel, death to the USA, And I think that they've taken their first shot and I …”
Rollins: Most consumers will choose real American beef over lab-grown alternatives
“I also believe that at the end of the day, the American consumer, when most of them, when having to decide between Real American beef and something that's not that they're going to choose the real American beef.”
Chamath: Class action lawsuits over LLM errors in enterprise are inevitable
“And I, I'm guaranteeing you, we have not seen the class action lawsuits that will come when those errors will eventually be made. They're guaranteed to be made. We just don't know the scope and the scale of them.”
Calacanis: Trump will enact tariffs rather than just using them as negotiation
“I actually think people are starting to realize he's gonna do something here with these tariffs. They're not just a negotiating position.”
Chamath: US tariffs are definitely coming under the Trump administration
“Well, I think the tariffs will be a plug. Are they coming? Absolutely. The quantum of them, I don't know.”
Friedberg: China will tariff US agriculture, requiring massive farm bailouts
“There will be, as there was in the first Trump presidency, very likely very large transfer payments made to farmers, because China is very likely going to tariff imports or stop making Import purchases altogether”
Chamath Palihapitiya predicts DOGE spending cuts could exceed $2 trillion
“I suspect to be honest, it could be more than two trillion dollars when it's all said and done.”
Friedberg: Microplastics problem will trigger FDA and EPA regulatory reviews
“So the microplastic problem is something that will certainly trigger A bunch of FDA review, a bunch of EPA review.”
Bannister: 2025 leaks will reveal government coerced Zuckerberg into censoring Meta
“And after January, we're going to find out some interesting stuff and we'll get to the bottom of, you know, how did the government pressure him to censor things? And I think he's getting in front of that because it is going to come out. And I think that is a h…”
Chamath predicts sports media rights revenue will drop in next TV deals
“And I think what happens is sports will have a decent run until the next TV deals get done. And I think if you, for example, take pharma ads outside of TV, so like that pool shrinks, if you have less viewership and so you can sell The remaining ads less effect…”
Friedberg: Removing ship sulfur emissions doubles ocean warming rate
“By removing sulfur dioxide, we are now going to see a doubling of the rate of warming of the oceans in the twenty-twenties and going forward.”
Friedberg: Europe's $30B ITER fusion system will be online by 2030
“And by the way, the biggest funding is happening in ITER, which is the largest construction project in Europe. And this is a thirty billion dollar Production-scale fusion demonstration system that should be online by the end of the twenty-twenties.”
Palihapitiya predicts DOJ will force structural remedies on Google
“There'll be some form of forced remedy.”
Palihapitiya: 2021 and 2022 VC fund vintages will yield terrible returns
“Those middle vintages are just going to be garbanzo beans, 21, 22.”
Mearsheimer: China is building a blue-water navy for Indian Ocean power projection
“The second place, which is maybe even more dangerous, not at the moment, but will be over time, is the Indian Ocean, because the Chinese are imitating the United States. They not only want to be a regional hegemon, They want to develop power projection capabil…”
Mearsheimer: Arab nations will not intervene militarily if Israel expands West Bank operations
“I think there is virtually no chance of what you described happening, which is if the Israelis were to go on a rampage in the West Bank, similar to what they've done in Gaza, that the Jordanians would come in, or the Egyptians, or the Saudis. They simply don't…”
Mearsheimer: US will likely join if Israel enters war with Iran
“And if Israel gets involved in a war with Iran, we're going to come in, in all likelihood.”
Hoffman predicts the bulk of AI chip demand will be for inference
“And I think there's gonna be a bunch of those kind of coming in, and the bulk of the demand will be on the inference side”
Calacanis predicts humanoid robots like Optimus will cost only $20,000
“I think there's going to be some incredible gains with Optimus and some of the other robots that are occurring, and those things are only going to cost 20 grand.”
Chamath: Government IDs will be required to use advanced AI models
“If you have to put in your driver's license to buy fertilizer, you're sure as will have to put in your driver's license to use Fable Five, which is the precursor to know how to use fertilizer to make the bomb.”
Chamath: Nvidia will lose market share to AI chip startups over time
“At some point, the spread trade will be that Nvidia loses share, even though revenues keep compounding to these upstarts.”
Friedberg: Energy monetization ramp-up won't cover US deficit within 4 years
“But I'm not sure that the ramp up is gonna be fast enough to make up for the deficit over the next four years.”
Calacanis predicts Google will face major publisher lawsuits over AI Overviews
“And I think that we're going to see a major lawsuit here.”
Gerstner: SpaceX IPO will trade at 40 to 50 times revenue
“This is why the SpaceX IPO is going to trade at 40 to 50 times revenue.”
Calacanis predicts Elon Musk vs. OpenAI lawsuit will end in settlement
“My guess is, like most of these things, there'll be some sort of settlement or something here, but maybe he takes it to the mat, who knows.”
Gerstner predicts OpenAI and Google will sandbox frontier AI models
“I think that OpenAI will end up doing the same thing. I think Google will end up doing the same thing.”
Friedberg: Texas and other states will follow Florida's cultivated meat ban
“The problem is now that Florida's done this, I guarantee you're gonna see Texas, which is a huge ranching state, And many other states step up to do it.”
Chamath: OpenAI's tax structure issues will be resolved in court
“And if OpenAI turns out to be this multi-hundred billion dollar behemoth, this will get figured out in court because there's just too much money at stake.”
Emil Michael: Anthropic will be excluded from Pentagon AI contracts under current posture
“And Throbic's not going to be one of them if they continue sort of with their sort of posture.”
Nadella: Open-source AI models will reach frontier-class capabilities
“They're definitely going to be frontier models that are closed source. You know, they're going to be open source models that are going to be frontier class.”
Chamath predicts Biden will not serve out a full second term if re-elected
“I don't think Biden is going to step down at all, but I do think there's a chance A non-trivial chance that Biden wins. And if he does, I don't think he's going to make it four years.”
Sacks predicts second Biden term will force Elon Musk to divest X
“So I think that in a second Biden term, they will open an investigation and just start ratcheting up the pressure on Elon to get rid of X, because that's clearly what they want.”
Chamath Palihapitiya predicts TikTok will be acquired extremely cheaply under Donald Trump
“And I think that we'll probably find one. And I think that it probably happens under the Trump presidency and whoever gets their hands on it, gets their hands on an incredible asset. That they will be able to buy extremely cheaply, because there is no way that…”
Sacks: Lina Khan will not lead the FTC in a second Trump administration
“I don't think that Lena Khan is going to be running that agency in a second Trump administration”
Makary predicts GLP-1 drug starter pricing will drop to $149
“With the GLP-I example, for example, it's gonna come down to a 149 dollars for the first three months.”
Sacks predicts US strikes in Yemen will trigger war with Iran
“So I don't think this is going to have any impact other than to escalate the conflict in the Middle East and put us on a path to war with Iran, which is really where the neocons want to take us. You've heard, obviously, the warmongers like Lindsey Graham are c…”
Chamath: SpaceX will reverse merge into Tesla instead of IPOing
“I don't think SpaceX will IPO. I think that it will reverse merge into Tesla, and I think Elon will use it as a moment to consolidate control and power of his two seminal assets into one cap table.”
Chamath: AI copyright disputes will be sorted out through court trials
“The most important thing is that this will get sorted out through trials. That's where you are right, Jason. It's going to go to court.”
Calacanis: Nvidia will decline or severely downgrade investment in OpenAI
“I think NVIDIA is not going to take their option to invest in open AI, or they're going to really downgrade at 70, 80%, and they're going to allocate it to other players.”
Chamath: U.S. faces the largest intergenerational wealth transfer in history
“We're about to go, the largest generation of wealth transfer beyond imagination. We're talking trillions and trillions and trillions of dollars.”
Apple will cede its AI business to Google, Chamath predicts
“Apple is now in this really interesting place where it seems like they're going to seed their AI business to Google and pay them billions of dollars a year like they get paid billions of dollars a year for search from them.”
Sacks predicts a de-escalation avoiding an Israeli ground invasion is unlikely
“I personally think that that's still unlikely. And the main reason for that is I think Israel is determined to go in.”
Eli Lilly's US expansion creates over 25,000 construction and manufacturing jobs
“So yeah, this is creating 20,000 construction jobs in this period, and ultimately five or 6000 manufacturing jobs.”
Sacks: Prosecutions will send Donald Trump to prison or the White House
“They're either gonna send Donald Trump to the big house or to the White House.”
Sacks: Trump will win election subversion case if it reaches Supreme Court
“I think if he has to take the Supreme Court, he's going to win it because it's just a novel legal theory.”
Lutnick predicts an American buyer will acquire TikTok over a shutdown
“I think that deal will happen, and America will buy TikTok, because the alternative is It just shuts it off, and that just seems illogical.”
Sacks: Offshore stablecoin issuers must move onshore within three years
“They will have to come onshore as part of this bill in the next three years.”
Baker: Next-gen AI models will be trained on Blackwell GPUs
“The next models we see, you know, Grok five, you know, O five from open AI, whatever they're going to call Jim, the next Gemini. They will be trained on Blackwell, and I think that will be a really big step function.”
Calacanis: Figma aims to raise $1.5 billion in its IPO
“Figma is going to try to raise 1.5 billion in their IPO.”
Palihapitiya: Nvidia's margins will compress as major tech companies build custom chips
“In the end, Nvidia's gains today will be then spread across Nvidia. Facebook will have their own chip. Amazon will have their own chip. Google already does. Apple will have their own chip. All the memory companies will be in this space, right? So then the prof…”
Sacks: Law enforcement will use AI co-pilots to detect automated cybercrime
“So there will be new tools that law enforcement will be able to use. And if somebody is creating phishing sites at scale, they're going to be probably pretty easy for, you know, law enforcement AIs to detect. So let's not forget that there'll be co-pilots writ…”
Summers: Overwhelming majority of tariff costs will be passed to consumers
“Increases in tariffs of this magnitude, the overwhelming part of them will be passed on to consumers.”
Bessent: Government services will not be cut by DOGE efficiency efforts
“Everyone's hearing cuts, and they think their government services are going to get cut. Super important. They're not.”
Huang: AWS will purchase 1 million Nvidia chips in coming years
“In the case of AWS, I think they just announced, I think it was yesterday, that they're gonna buy a million chips in the next couple years.”
Calacanis: Big tech companies will buy thousands of $5M Gold Cards
“I gotta tell you, I think out of the gate, Apple, Meta, Microsoft buy, you know, one to 10,000 of these.”
Friedberg: Trump's $5M Gold Card program will max out at 10,000 buyers
“I think there's probably 10,000 max buyers of this thing, is my answer.”
Palihapitiya predicts publishers will block non-paying AI agents from their content
“So this is going to happen for these agents. It's unrealistic to expect that it won't.”
Calacanis predicts generative AI will enable founders to build MVPs without developers
“These two things are gonna come together where you're gonna be able to build your MVP for your startup by typing in text and then publish it. You're not gonna need a developer for your startup.”
Chamath predicts the DOJ antitrust lawsuit against Google will fail
“But by focusing on this, I think it's going to get deconstructed. It's going to fail.”
Friedberg: Expect a federal preemption challenge against California's EV mandate
“Well, this is where there'll be a federal preemption challenge, I think, of California.”
Swalwell: Trump will allow TikTok to operate in US
“I mean, I think Donald Trump is going to allow TikTok.”
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