James Litinsky, CEO of MP Materials, highlights valuation disconnects between commodity producers and auto OEMs.
Prediction Open · timeframe May 2027
Litinsky predicts a major auto OEM will fail or need bailout by 2027
“I'll bet that in the next five years, we will see a major household name OEM fail or need a bailout due to not, you know, prices went up on them, but lack of access to a material, some kind of critical material.”
Prediction Open · timeframe Jul 2030
Litinsky predicts US taxpayers will profit from DoD deal in five years
“It would not surprise me if when we, five years from now, hopefully we'll do this conference, and Chamath, you'll say to me, Jim, you know, I remember that deal that was the first of its kind that you did with DoD, And the government made money on you. The tax…”
Assertion Partly supported
Litinsky: China drove almost all global commodity capacity expansion last decade
“Pretty much all of the incremental steel and aluminum and commodities capacity in the world over the last decade has come online because, you know, China has led the way.”
Assertion Partly supported
Litinsky: Rare earth supply chain outside MP Materials is domiciled in China
“So outside of us, this entire supply chain is essentially domiciled in China.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Litinsky predicts Tesla or other EV makers will acquire upstream miners
“So what's going to happen is, I think you're going to see maybe an AOL Time Warner moment, and I don't mean it the negative way, but I think you could see a Tesla or someone like that buy upstream Outstream into these industries because ultimately downstream t…”
Opinion
Litinsky: US mineral reliance on China mirrors Germany's Russian gas dependence
“I think it's a fair analogy to say, That Germany is to Nat gas as we are to China supply chain.”