Nate Silver explains historical baseline patterns and forecasts for the 2022 US midterm elections.
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Silver: 10% or higher risk of severe US constitutional crisis in 2024
“It may not resolve itself in the end of democracy, but like, that's like a, you know, a risk that's, you know, in the 10% range or maybe higher of a severe constitutional crisis in twenty-twenty-four and maybe repeated that in twenty-twenty-eight and so forth,…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Nate Silver: California's official vote count accurately reflects ballots cast
“I think the California vote count is an accurate tally of the votes that were cast.”
Insight
Silver: Politics discourages critical thinking and encourages confirmation bias
“I just don't think that like politics teaches people to think critically and it's like, yeah, part of that is like, they're not thinking probabilistically, but it's more like people just want to see their kind of priors confirmed.”
Opinion
Silver: Political left and right are becoming increasingly authoritarian
“Both the left and the right have become more authoritarian in certain ways. I think the type of authoritarianism on the right It's quite a bit more dangerous in the moment, but, ah, they're both kind of moving away from kind of liberalism in some kind of class…”
Insight
Silver: Silicon Valley grasps scale, whereas social media flattens all discourse
“One thing that people in Silicon Valley get right for all their faults and self-servingness in some ways, right, They kind of get the orders of magnitudes, right? They understand scale and social media and the daily news cycle really collapses that, right? So …”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Silver: Moderate political candidates gain a two to four point electoral advantage
“You can actually see the effect of being more moderate will gain you an extra two or three or four points, right? Being less More moderate, more radical in some cases, will lose you two or three or four points.”