“We're going to get to a point that's probably higher than what people expect. That's probably around five and a half. And we'll stay there longer than people want. That's probably through the middle part of 24.”
quote is from the automated transcript, cleaned for reading:
filler sounds and stutters are removed, nothing is rephrased. names can be misheard
(the analysis reads context, assessments check outside sources). how →
More from Chamath Palihapitiya
AssertionPartly supported
Chamath: Warren Buffett generated zero alpha after Regulation FD was enacted
“His returns were double the market returns when this kind of information sharing was legal. And the minute that it became illegal and you had to basically act on the same edge as everybody else, his returns went to the market return. He generated zero alpha.”
Chamath PalihapitiyaFeb 13, 2026▶ 26:35Debt Spiral or NEW Golden Age? Super Bowl Insider Trading, Booming Token Budgets, Ferrari's New EV
PredictionNot checkable as stated
Chamath Palihapitiya predicts global software TAM will shrink to $500 billion
“I, I'm pretty sure that the market here shrinks by an order of magnitude, and instead of fighting over five trillion, I think we'll be fighting over Five hundred billion.”
Chamath PalihapitiyaDec 20, 2024▶ 1:09:38DOGE kills its first bill, Zuck vs OpenAI, Google's AI comeback
PredictionOpen · timeframe Nov 2032
Chamath: Democrats will lose California or New York within eight years
“I completely agree with you, and I'll go even further, which is, I think that the Democrats will lose one of California or New York in the next eight years.”
Chamath PalihapitiyaNov 8, 2024▶ 27:14Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
Disclosure
Palihapitiya: Human rights abuses against Uyghurs are below his line of concern
“Nobody cares about what's happening to the weakers. Okay. You bring it up because you really care. The rest of us don't care. I'm just telling you a very hard, I'm telling you a very hard, ugly truth. Okay. Of all the things that I care about. Yes, it is below…”
Chamath PalihapitiyaJan 15, 2022▶ 15:00E63: Insurrection indictments, human rights in the US and abroad, groundbreaking MS study and more
AssertionPartly supported
Chamath: Robinhood was insolvent and lacked capital during GameStop halt
“This company was insolvent. They did not have the capital requirements to post the margin that was being asked of them by their partners.”
Chamath PalihapitiyaJan 30, 2021▶ 3:29E19: Robinhood's GameStop decision: Why did it happen and how can it be prevented in the future?
PredictionDidn’t hold up
Chamath predicts Donald Trump will go to jail
“Yes.”
Chamath PalihapitiyaJan 11, 2021▶ 13:47E17: Big Tech bans Trump, ramifications for the First Amendment & the open Internet
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