U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick argues mainstream economists are underestimating Q4 economic growth, predicting 2.5% growth following strong Q2 and Q3 prints.
Disclosure
Lutnick: Google, Microsoft, and Amazon are building U.S. government software for free
“I go to the heads of Google and Microsoft and Amazon. They're all For America. Building for us. Right. For free. Right. To make America better.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Lutnick attributes newborn hepatitis B vaccine mandates to government corruption
“You know what it is? You know what the answer is? Corruption. That someone in the government got paid to put that in the rules.”
Prediction Open · timeframe Jan 2031
Lutnick: US tariff revenues will grow from $500B to $1T per year
“And then you have the tariffs are five hundred billion a year now, and they will grow over time to a trillion a year”
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Lutnick predicts US GDP growth will reach 5% in early 2026
“They could be this quarter, as in the first quarter, so then I'd say, well, you have to come back and see me when it's through five, but then you'll come back in a couple of months, and then you'd say, Howard, I just spoke to you for an hour. I don't, you know…”
Prediction Open · timeframe Jan 2027
Lutnick predicts 6% US GDP growth if Fed cuts interest rates
“And then if they cut rates, and that's the thing, I need a new Fed chair who cuts rates, and if they cut rates... You'll see sixes.”
Prediction Open · timeframe Mar 2030
Lutnick: US can cut $1T in spending and gain $1T through tariffs
“I think we're gonna cut a trillion dollars a year in expense, and then I think we can, through tariffs and other means, we're gonna get revenues of a trillion dollars.”