Prediction Didn’t hold up AI assessment confidence: 95% certainty 3/5 debate potential 3/5

Steve Cohen: US economic growth will slow to 1.5% in H2

Steven A. Cohen · Epstein Files Flop, State of the Market, Autonomous Robots, Trump's Gold Card, Friedberg on Jeopardy · Mar 1, 2025 · at 31:29

Steven A. Cohen was not on this episode. A recording of them was played into it, so these are their words but not an appearance on All-In. It still counts as said, and it is kept out of every score on their page.

Point72 founder Steven A. Cohen provides a macroeconomic forecast during a clip played on The All-In Podcast regarding tariffs, immigration, and fiscal austerity.

0:00 / 0:17exact quote · 17.1s

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“We think growth is going to slow to one and a half percent from two and a half percent in the second half, and so I'm actually pretty negative for the first time in a while, and it may only last a year or so, but it's definitely, I think the best gains have been had, and it wouldn't surprise me to see a significant correction.”

quote is from the automated transcript, cleaned for reading: filler sounds and stutters are removed, nothing is rephrased. names can be misheard (the analysis reads context, assessments check outside sources). how →

The claim, plainly

Steven A. Cohen predicts US economic growth will slow from 2.5% to 1.5% in the second half of the year, with a significant market correction possible.

a quote alone can be ambiguous, so this restates it with the references and context of the conversation around it resolved. AI-written; the tape below the player is the source.

Assessment

Steven A. Cohen predicted that U.S. economic growth would slow to approximately 1.5% in the second half of 2025 (down from ~2.5%) along with a potential market correction. According to BEA data, Q3 2025 annualized real GDP grew at 4.4% and Q4 grew at 0.5% (third estimate), resulting in an average second-half annualized growth rate of approximately 2.45% to 2.85%. This is significantly higher than the 1.5% target specified in the claim's resolution criteria. Additionally, the S&P 500 reached all-time highs in late December 2025 with no significant market correction during the period.

BEA reported Q3 2025 real GDP annualized growth at 4.4%.
BEA reported Q4 2025 real GDP annualized growth at 0.5% (third estimate).
Average annualized real GDP growth across H2 2025 was approximately 2.45% to 2.85%, missing the target of ~1.5%.
The S&P 500 gained 16% to 18% in 2025 and hit record highs in late December, without experiencing a major market correction in H2.

Checked against

[1] bea.gov [2] bea.gov [3] bea.gov [4] bea.gov [5] bea.gov [6] qz.com [7] reddit.com [8] spglobal.com

BEA US real GDP growth Q4 2025 BEA US real GDP growth Q3 2025 US GDP Q3 2025 Q4 2025 BEA percent change "stock market correction" 2025 S&P 500 S&P 500 performance second half 2025

assessed as of 2026-07-30

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Steve Cohen: US economic growth will slow to 1.5% in H2

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