The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 18 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 1 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Mearsheimer: Netanyahu is trying to draw the US into war with Iran
“To counter the Iranian escalation scenario, the fact is Iran does not want a war with the United States, and the United States does not want a war with Iran. And it's the Israelis, especially Benjamin Netanyahu, who has been trying to sort of suck us into a wa…”
Mearsheimer: China is the most serious threat to the United States
“China is a pure competitor to the United States. It's the most serious threat to the United States.”
Mearsheimer: Trump will fail to defeat the foreign policy 'deep state'
“And the big question on the table is whether or not you think Trump can beat the deep state and these two established parties. And I'd bet against Trump.”
Mearsheimer: Forcefully imposing liberal democracy abroad almost always backfires
“Do you think that we can run around the world imposing liberal democracy on other countries, and in some cases, shoving it down their throat, doing it at the end of a rifle barrel. And my argument is that's almost impossible to do. It almost always backfires.”
Mearsheimer: Interventionist foreign policy erodes domestic freedom of speech
“You begin to erode liberalism in the United States because you build a deep state, right? And you want to understand that a lot of the complaints here about cracking down on freedom of speech and so forth and so on are related to the fact that we have this amb…”
Mearsheimer: The U.S. should prioritize national interest, even if aligning with dictators
“I think that what the United States should do is worry about its own national interest. In some cases that's going to involve align ourselves with a dictator.”
Mearsheimer: Russia is not a serious threat to the U.S.
“With regard to Russia, I don't think Russia is a serious threat to the United States. And indeed, I think the United States should have good relations with Putin. It's a remarkably foolish policy to push him into the arms of the Chinese.”
Mearsheimer: U.S.-China conflict more likely in South China Sea than Taiwan
“The place where a conflict is most likely today is not over Taiwan. I could explain why I think Taiwan is not a serious problem at the moment or for the foreseeable future. The South China Sea is a very dangerous place. We could end up in a war for sure, even …”
Mearsheimer: Netanyahu is trying to draw US into war with Iran
“And it's the Israelis, especially Benjamin Netanyahu, has been, who has been trying to sort of suck us into a war, because he wants us, the United States, To really whack Iran, weaken it militarily, and especially to go after its nuclear capabilities, because …”
Mearsheimer: Republicans and Democrats are foreign policy 'Tweedledee and Tweedledum'
“No, I like to refer to the Republicans and the Democrats as Tweedledee and Tweedledum. There's hardly any difference.”
Mearsheimer: Turning China into a democracy will not happen
“Not going to happen. We tried it actually, and I thought it was foolish to even pursue a policy of engagement toward China.”
Mearsheimer: China is America's primary peer competitor and greatest threat
“China is a peer competitor to the United States. It's the most serious threat to the United States. Russia is the weakest of those three great powers, and it's not a serious threat to us.”
Mearsheimer: Conflicts in Ukraine and Middle East hinder U.S. Asia pivot
“And furthermore, by getting bogged down in Ukraine, and now bogged down in the Middle East, it's become very difficult for us to pivot to Asia to deal with China, which is the principal threat that we face.”
Mearsheimer: China is building a blue-water navy for Indian Ocean power projection
“The second place, which is maybe even more dangerous, not at the moment, but will be over time, is the Indian Ocean, because the Chinese are imitating the United States. They not only want to be a regional hegemon, They want to develop power projection capabil…”
Mearsheimer: Arab nations will not intervene militarily if Israel expands West Bank operations
“I think there is virtually no chance of what you described happening, which is if the Israelis were to go on a rampage in the West Bank, similar to what they've done in Gaza, that the Jordanians would come in, or the Egyptians, or the Saudis. They simply don't…”
Mearsheimer: US will likely join if Israel enters war with Iran
“And if Israel gets involved in a war with Iran, we're going to come in, in all likelihood.”