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Antonio Gracias

Founder & CEO, Valor Equity Partners · 6 appearances on the record.

computed by AI from the episodes · how this works → · full disclaimer →

investorfounderexecutiveoperator@AntonioGracias ↗valorep.com ↗Wikipedia ↗

Antonio Gracias founded Chicago-based private equity firm Valor Equity Partners in 1995, pioneering an operational growth investment strategy. He was an early institutional backer and director at Tesla, a major shareholder and board member at SpaceX, and a team lead volunteering with the Department of Government Efficiency.

58statements → 38claims → 20claims resolved → 40%fully supported → 4/5average certainty → 2.86/5average debate potential → 3.7/5argument clarity · the sources → 20said about them ↓

8 supported 7 partly supported 5 contradicted 3 not yet assessed 15 not checkable as stated how the 38 claims stand · each chip opens the sources

8 predictions · 30 assertions · 5 opinions · 2 insights · 13 disclosures · every statement was checked. The predictions and assertions are the 38 claims: statements the public record can support or contradict. 20 are resolved, 3 are not yet assessed, and 15 name no date, number or outcome precise enough to check. Everything else (opinions, insights, what ifs, disclosures) can never be settled by the record, so it carries no assessment.

The record, in short

What the tape says about how Antonio argues and how the claims held up. Everything they said, and everything said about them, is in the tabs below.

Their most notable supported claim

Assertion Supported
DOGE sampling found non-citizens registered to vote and actually voting
“We have sampled a handful of states and in those handful of states we found people registered to vote, and we have found people who actually voted”
Antonio Gracias May 21, 2025 ▶ 16:50 Antonio Gracias: DOGE updates, Voter fraud, Finding 'Big Balls' | All-In Live from Miami

Their most notable contradicted claim

Assertion Contradicted
Gracias: DOGE found thousands of non-citizens on voter rolls in four states
“We looked at the voter rolls. We found these people, thousands of them on the voter rolls, and we found many of those people had voted, right? In one state in particular, well over a thousand voted.”
Antonio Gracias Apr 4, 2025 ▶ 28:20 DOGE updates + Liberation Day Tariff Reactions with Ben Shapiro and Antonio Gracias

Expressed certainty vs assessment result

none yet certainty 1
none yet certainty 2
38% certainty 3
50% certainty 4
100% certainty 5

weighted support: a fully supported claim counts one, a partly supported claim counts half. Each filled bar is clickable and opens exactly those claims; "none yet" means nothing said at that certainty level has resolved yet

Argument clarity: do they answer the question? how? →

3.7 / 5 directness 4 · coherence 3.5 · precision 3.6 · compression 3

redirected or did not address 2 of 8 assessed questions (25%). Watch them ▸

This is a score against a rubric. It is not a rank. Every host question → answer exchange is scored with names hidden on directness, coherence, precision and compression, 1–5 each, on meaning alone: disfluencies are ignored, and only raw unedited episodes count. This is the score that measures thought. Every scored exchange, scores shown → · The rubric and its checks →

How they sound: speaking style how? →

313 words/min while actually speaking · 15.1 um and uh per 1k words

Measured by listening to the audio itself: 9,685 words across 2 episodes of raw-level tape, transcribed verbatim with every um and uh kept, each one attributed only where the alignment onto our timed stream is unambiguous. These are measurements of speaking style. We do not rank them: across this corpus, fluency and argument quality are nearly uncorrelated (ρ≈0.2), and smooth talking does not signal clear thinking. How it's measured →

Everything Antonio Gracias said on All-In that made the record, most notable first. Filter by type, assessment or year in the ledger →

Assertion Contradicted
Gracias: DOGE found thousands of non-citizens on voter rolls in four states
“We looked at the voter rolls. We found these people, thousands of them on the voter rolls, and we found many of those people had voted, right? In one state in particular, well over a thousand voted.”
Antonio Gracias Apr 4, 2025 ▶ 28:20 DOGE updates + Liberation Day Tariff Reactions with Ben Shapiro and Antonio Gracias
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Gracias: 1.3M non-citizens with flagged Social Security numbers receive Medicaid
“We found in the benefit programs that every benefit program that was being accessed by these people, you know, 1.3 million of them are on Medicaid right now, today.”
Antonio Gracias Apr 4, 2025 ▶ 14:13 DOGE updates + Liberation Day Tariff Reactions with Ben Shapiro and Antonio Gracias
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Gracias: Flagged Social Security numbers yielded terrorist watchlist hits
“We sent this data list to the National Targeting Center. They, and I don't want to get too far into the data, but I can tell you they found hard hits in the Targeting Center of very bad people. Criminals and people on terrorist watch list that are in this grou…”
Antonio Gracias Apr 4, 2025 ▶ 17:23 DOGE updates + Liberation Day Tariff Reactions with Ben Shapiro and Antonio Gracias
Assertion Supported
DOGE sampling found non-citizens registered to vote and actually voting
“We have sampled a handful of states and in those handful of states we found people registered to vote, and we have found people who actually voted”
Antonio Gracias May 21, 2025 ▶ 16:50 Antonio Gracias: DOGE updates, Voter fraud, Finding 'Big Balls' | All-In Live from Miami
Assertion Supported
Gracias: DOGE voter investigations yielded arrests in Florida and New York
“We had already three arrests here in Florida, actually, and one indictment in New York.”
Antonio Gracias May 21, 2025 ▶ 17:19 Antonio Gracias: DOGE updates, Voter fraud, Finding 'Big Balls' | All-In Live from Miami
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Gracias: One DOGE engineer finds 10 to 20 non-citizen voters daily
“It takes an engineer about a day to find 10 to 20 cases per state in sampling.”
Antonio Gracias May 21, 2025 ▶ 19:53 Antonio Gracias: DOGE updates, Voter fraud, Finding 'Big Balls' | All-In Live from Miami
Assertion Contradicted
Gracias: Biden administration raised citizenship database API fees, deterring states
“In the Biden administration, they raised the price, when I think about a dollar, an API call, to three dollars and change the API call, and all the states stop using it.”
Antonio Gracias May 21, 2025 ▶ 21:25 Antonio Gracias: DOGE updates, Voter fraud, Finding 'Big Balls' | All-In Live from Miami
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Gracias: Social Security will go bankrupt between 2032 and 2037
“Man, this system's going bankrupt. It's going to be bankrupt in 23 to seven. The country overall, as you guys know, talked about many times, is on its way toward bankruptcy.”
Antonio Gracias Apr 4, 2025 ▶ 4:45 DOGE updates + Liberation Day Tariff Reactions with Ben Shapiro and Antonio Gracias
Assertion Not publicly verifiable
Gracias: DOGE found 2.4M questionable non-citizen Social Security entries
“This is about 5.4 million people total. There were about 1.2 million people that the status is marked as unknown, and about 1.2 million people that were marked as general parole.”
Antonio Gracias Apr 4, 2025 ▶ 9:44 DOGE updates + Liberation Day Tariff Reactions with Ben Shapiro and Antonio Gracias
Assertion Supported
Gracias: US policy funneled $13B to $15B annually to human traffickers
“You've got to realize we gave 13 to fifteen billion dollars a year to human traffickers.”
Antonio Gracias Apr 4, 2025 ▶ 26:32 DOGE updates + Liberation Day Tariff Reactions with Ben Shapiro and Antonio Gracias
Assertion Contradicted
Gracias: Social Security Administration issued numbers based on minimal ID
“You get a Social Security number before we got here by walking in office. Answering, you know, with a medical record and a school ID that had your name and your date, the date of birth on it.”
Antonio Gracias Apr 4, 2025 ▶ 29:26 DOGE updates + Liberation Day Tariff Reactions with Ben Shapiro and Antonio Gracias
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Gracias warns US federal bureaucracy risks becoming a Latin American kleptocracy
“What I'm afraid of now is we have a bureaucracy that is about to turn into a kleptocracy. I mean, a Latin American style kleptocracy.”
Antonio Gracias Feb 7, 2025 ▶ 9:19 DOGE vs USAID, Crypto Framework, Google's $75B AI Spend, US Sovereign Wealth Fund, GLP-1s
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Gracias: xAI will win AI race due to cluster efficiency and data
“It's a 100,000 GPU cluster. It's the most dense coherent cluster in the world, and it will just train faster and better. Than other clusters. And it's also built for the most cheaply, and the fastest. So, XAI will have the highest training capital, and I also …”
Antonio Gracias Feb 7, 2025 ▶ 1:13:32 DOGE vs USAID, Crypto Framework, Google's $75B AI Spend, US Sovereign Wealth Fund, GLP-1s
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Gracias: Electric VTOL startups will earn basic industrial margins due to competition
“SpaceX is an end of one. If you compare that to someone making an electric vehicle that, say, an electric airplane or electric VTOL, that will not be an end of one. It'll be an end of many. And in an end of many business, you're ultimately going to have margin…”
Antonio Gracias Jun 7, 2022 ▶ 9:04 #AIS: Bestie AMA with Valor's Antonio Gracias
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Gracias: US can cut spending 15% without touching core entitlements
“I think if we had the political will, you'd easily get that 15%, no problem. Not without any problem at all, and without cutting the core entitlement programs.”
Antonio Gracias May 21, 2025 ▶ 3:48 Antonio Gracias: DOGE updates, Voter fraud, Finding 'Big Balls' | All-In Live from Miami
Assertion Partly supported
Gracias: 88% of departing federal workers took voluntary severance packages
“I think it's 88% of the people that have left the government have taken packages. The packages are very lucrative. There's, you know, nine months or so of severance and they're voluntary.”
Antonio Gracias May 21, 2025 ▶ 4:15 Antonio Gracias: DOGE updates, Voter fraud, Finding 'Big Balls' | All-In Live from Miami
Assertion Supported
Gracias: Secretary Noem signed memo making SAVE citizenship database access free
“Secretary of Homeland Security, I want to thank her, Secretary Noem, has just signed a memo, a policy memo, to make it free.”
Antonio Gracias May 21, 2025 ▶ 21:57 Antonio Gracias: DOGE updates, Voter fraud, Finding 'Big Balls' | All-In Live from Miami
Disclosure
Gracias: DOGE will overhaul both legal and illegal immigration systems
“These programs, I've mapped the entire system now they go from DHS to State Department to labor. They're very disconnected, and they're hard to manage, so we are going to work on this. One of the things we are going to work on and hopefully leave behind is bot…”
Antonio Gracias May 21, 2025 ▶ 24:34 Antonio Gracias: DOGE updates, Voter fraud, Finding 'Big Balls' | All-In Live from Miami
Assertion Open · timeframe Apr 2026
Gracias: January 1st was the most common birthdate in border data
“When we looked at the birth certificate data that was presented at the border, the number one birth date was one. And it was four times more likely to be born on one-on-one than any other day of the year.”
Antonio Gracias Apr 4, 2025 ▶ 12:55 DOGE updates + Liberation Day Tariff Reactions with Ben Shapiro and Antonio Gracias
Assertion Contradicted
Gracias: 23% of analyzed border records lacked fingerprint biometrics
“We found that 23% of the records we looked at did not have fingerprints.”
Antonio Gracias Apr 4, 2025 ▶ 13:18 DOGE updates + Liberation Day Tariff Reactions with Ben Shapiro and Antonio Gracias
Assertion Partly supported
Gracias: Over 70 border agents committed suicide during recent border surge
“Both Border Patrol and Border Protection told me they had the highest suicide rates of all time during the surge. Okay, over 70, over 70 of these agents committed suicide in this period.”
Antonio Gracias Apr 4, 2025 ▶ 13:31 DOGE updates + Liberation Day Tariff Reactions with Ben Shapiro and Antonio Gracias
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Gracias: 1980s amnesty turned California into a solidly blue state
“Ronald Reagan signed amnesty, and you know, some, four years later, it is now a solidly blue state, and I think some of us on this program, I know you, Jason, are a refugee from California because of that, because of some of those policies, and I want to be, I…”
Antonio Gracias Apr 4, 2025 ▶ 36:44 DOGE updates + Liberation Day Tariff Reactions with Ben Shapiro and Antonio Gracias
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Gracias: US government lacks controller function and accounting reconciliation to pass audits
“There is no control. There is no controller. There's no reconciliation. The reason they can't pass audits.”
Antonio Gracias Feb 7, 2025 ▶ 23:38 DOGE vs USAID, Crypto Framework, Google's $75B AI Spend, US Sovereign Wealth Fund, GLP-1s
Prediction Open · timeframe Apr 2028
Gracias: Orbital rockets will enable sub-hour point-to-point global Earth transport
“Yeah, I mean, look, Gavin could jump in here too, but the reality is once you could take that much mass to orbit, you can move anything around the planet very quickly. You can kind of go up or spin below you and come down. So transportation generally changes. …”
Antonio Gracias Apr 21, 2023 ▶ 8:07 E125: SpaceX launch, Fox News settlement, "Zombie-corn" exodus to AI, late-stage implosion

Show 24statements(34 left)

The other half of the tape: Antonio Gracias's own voice is left out of every number here. Other people bring the name up 20 times in 10 episodes on All-In. every mention, with the transcript →

Who brings them up most Jason Calacanis 16Francis Suarez 1Elon Musk 1David Sacks 1David Friedberg 1

Every mention by year

tap a year for its mentions
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0242022202320242025episodes it came up in
0032642022202320242025episodesmentions per episode
2025 9 mentions in 4 episodes 2 per episode
2024 2 mentions in 2 episodes 1 per episode
2023 6 mentions in 1 episode
2022 3 mentions in 3 episodes 1 per episode

Appearances (6)

EpisodeDateSpeaking time
Antonio Gracias: DOGE updates, Voter fraud, Finding 'Big Balls' | All-In Live from Miami May 21, 2025 13m
DOGE updates + Liberation Day Tariff Reactions with Ben Shapiro and Antonio Gracias Apr 4, 2025 15m
Science Corner with David Friedberg: GLP-1 Study Shows Encouraging Results Feb 10, 2025 58s
DOGE vs USAID, Crypto Framework, Google's $75B AI Spend, US Sovereign Wealth Fund, GLP-1s Feb 7, 2025 15m
E125: SpaceX launch, Fox News settlement, "Zombie-corn" exodus to AI, late-stage implosion Apr 21, 2023 6m
#AIS: Bestie AMA with Valor's Antonio Gracias Jun 7, 2022 23m
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