The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 16 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 2 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Calacanis: Major enterprise customers will abandon OpenAI and Anthropic for open-source
“And I'll make this prediction here, that you're going to see some of the major customers Of Anthropic and major customers of OpenAI. I'm talking about the eight and nine figure customers, people spending fifty million, a hundred million a year. They're leaving…”
Sacks: Anthropic CPO resigned from Figma board days before rival launch
“Anthropic's chief product officer had actually even served on Figma's board and didn't resign until three days before the launch of Claude Design.”
Sacks predicts Figma will not build a competitor to Adobe Photoshop
“Figma has no interest in competing with Photoshop. They're not going to compete. They, they're much more interested in AI. They're much more interested in doing things like prompt to design to code. They're not interested in building, you know, a Photoshop com…”
Palihapitiya: AI copilots allow 50 engineers to match 500 engineers' output
“So even if you set out a team and said, just copy exactly what Figma has with a co-pilot. Enabling 50 engineers. That's like 500 engineers cranking on something. I would be surprised if they couldn't just replicate the product end to end.”
Sacks predicts Figma will reach $1.5B to $2B ARR within 3.5 years
“They're going to be, you know, at somewhere between one and a half and two billion of ARR.”
Sacks: Five years of zero revenue does not mean startups are dead
“And for anyone who's doing a SAS company and you're in it five years and you still have zero revenue And like, that doesn't mean you're dead. I mean, they basically were a zero for five years. Absolutely nothing. And now it's a twenty billion dollar exit five …”
Chamath predicts Adobe's $20B acquisition of Figma will close
“If you asked me, if I was a betting man, I think this thing is going to close.”
Sacks: Regulatory delay on Adobe-Figma will chill Silicon Valley M&A
“The fact that regulators took 15 months to analyze the deal, only to come to the conclusion that they basically weren't going to allow it, and then Adobe finally killed it, is going to have a chilling effect on M&A in Silicon Valley. I mean, if acquirers and t…”
Sacks: Acquisition promises of founder independence usually last two years
“When they promise the founder that you'll be left alone, that usually lasts two years. That's coincidentally, usually the length of the earn out or the golden handcuffs.”
Calacanis cites Figma's S-1 metrics: $228M Q1 revenue, $1.5B cash, zero debt
“Figma filed their S one Q one revenues, two hundred and twenty eight million. You remember they were going to get bought by Adobe before, before it got stopped. And they have thirteen million monthly active users, a billion and a half in cash, no debt.”
Friedberg: Figma generated $95M free cash flow in Q1 with 130% NRR
“They ran a 43% operating cash flow margin in Q-one. So in Q-one of this year, Figma generated ninety-five million dollars of free cash flow. They've got net revenue retention of like a 130%.”
Sacks: Canceled Adobe-Figma merger would have been worth $30B
“And that, that Figma Adobe deal, it was a twenty billion dollar deal, but with the rise in Adobe stock, it's really a thirty billion dollar deal if it would have been consummated, because half the consideration was in Adobe stock, and that has basically double…”
Calacanis: Adobe's Figma deal is the largest private company acquisition in history
“It's the largest private company purchase I believe in history.”
Sacks: Pricing is the core driver of go-to-market strategy
“You have to think of pricing as not an element by itself, but as sort of the most important element of a go to market strategy. And there's no way that you can basically reprice Figma completely as part of some other bundle and expect not to create massive dis…”