The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 278 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 18 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Altman: Unreleased OpenAI model used zero-day exploits to breach Hugging Face
“We were evaluating one of our unreleased models and it figured out that it could basically cheat on the test by chaining together multiple zero day exploits to break out of the sandbox, get access to the internet, and then break through multiple systems on the…”
Calacanis predicts OpenAI will lose its lead and become fourth-ranked AI player
“My most contrarian belief was OpenAI loses its lead, loses its nonprofit to for-profit transition and becomes the number four player in AI. The total collapse of OpenAI is my most contrarian prediction for .”
Altman: OpenAI paused training and may pace frontier AI development
“We paused training, or we may have to pace the rate of AI development to give ourselves enough time for society to harden around some of these new capability levels.”
Calacanis: Nvidia will decline or severely downgrade investment in OpenAI
“I think NVIDIA is not going to take their option to invest in open AI, or they're going to really downgrade at 70, 80%, and they're going to allocate it to other players.”
Altman: Meta offered OpenAI staff $100M signing bonuses, but none left
“They started making these like giant offers to you know, a lot of people on our team you know, like a hundred million dollar signing bonuses, more than that comp per year. And I'm actually, it is crazy. I'm really happy that at least so far none of our best pe…”
Calacanis: Microsoft will release an OpenAI search engine impacting Google
“Microsoft, I think is going to release a and there's a prediction as well, a search engine with Open AI, that has a significant impact on Google's franchise.”
Sacks: OpenAI is pursuing regulatory capture to secure a duopoly moat
“OpenAI, frankly, seems to be running an anthropic slipstream right now from a red capture standpoint. I don't think they're as doomer as anthropic, but they can see the benefit if the federal government effectively creates a moat that, you know, there's huge e…”
Sacks: Frontier AI intelligence is now an Anthropic-OpenAI duopoly
“Now we're really down to just anthropic and open AI. So the market for frontier intelligence has become a duopoly.”
Calacanis: Major enterprise customers will abandon OpenAI and Anthropic for open-source
“And I'll make this prediction here, that you're going to see some of the major customers Of Anthropic and major customers of OpenAI. I'm talking about the eight and nine figure customers, people spending fifty million, a hundred million a year. They're leaving…”
Calacanis: Margin compression will derail OpenAI and Anthropic IPOs
“I believe that this is going to derail their IPOs. I'm taking it from the top. It's going to derail their IPOs. It's going to be headwinds against it because I think that they're going to have massive margin compression.”
Sacks: OpenAI forecasts $75 billion in exit ARR by year-end
“I think they were expecting to end the year at sixty billion of ARR. And I think they're forecasting more like seventy five billion of exit ARR.”
Chamath: OpenAI-backed pro-AI groups beat Anthropic-backed anti-AI groups in key primaries
“In Utah and in New York, there was a couple of very important races where it was essentially anthropic funded anti AI groups, which is again, insane against In some ways, open AI funded pro AI groups and the pro AI groups won.”
Ackman: Sarah Friar should be OpenAI CEO and Sam Altman chair
“I thought she should be CEO of OpenAI. I think Sam should be chair.”
Friar: LLMs are not commoditizing because value lies in agentic layers
“A year ago people talked about the commoditization of the LLMs. And frankly, it's gone the opposite because as you start building an agentic layer, and we've all started to use this word harness, but the harness is what brings the context, the memory, right?”
Chamath: Software sector P/E multiples will contract as AI degrades tech moats
“The tech sector PE is going to shrink faster, in my opinion, than the non-tech PE. And the reason is because as these companies come out, the combination of SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic, all three are baking An AI technology that first and foremost will go af…”
Chamath: OpenAI and Anthropic are both true trillion-dollar companies
“These are trillion dollar companies. They both are, and they both deserve to be.”
Friedberg: OpenAI's defensive posture has damaged ChatGPT's product and brand
“ChatGPT is now acting and OpenAI has been acting like an incumbent, fearful of losing market share and fearful of getting attacked in the media and attacked by consumers for saying the wrong thing. And so they've taken this kind of defensive posture that I thi…”
Calacanis: Google search will grow, while OpenAI will lose market share
“I think the search franchise is going to grow, and that Google is not going to lose to ChatGPT, and I think the big loser in all this is going to be OpenAI, because they started with a hundred percent of the market, and they're only going down, and they're fac…”
Musk claims OpenAI released broken open-source models as a fig leaf
“They basically, they open sourced a broken, non-working version of their models as a fig leaf.”
Chamath: OpenAI could reach a $1.5T valuation within four years
“I would probably put that at like, 500 Dow to be conservative. It's probably doubling every two years. So 500 goes to a 1,000,000,001, billion goes to two in four years, and at two billion Dow, they generate a 1th of Facebook's revenue, just to be very conserv…”
Calacanis: Sam Altman corrupted OpenAI's mission and betrayed Elon Musk
“Individuals, which by the way, was what he backed before Sam Altman corrupted the original missionary basis of opening. I made a closed AI in a, you know, this is nothing derogatory towards him, but he did hoodwink and stab Elon in the back.”
Lafont: Apple stock would rise if it acquired OpenAI for $500B
“I actually think it would go up, not down, even if they did something like that.”
Calacanis predicts OpenAI will peak at its $157 billion valuation
“But I think the one that is the most overpriced of all of this, and I think is going to see their peak valuation is open AI.”
Chamath calls OpenAI the biggest tech disappointment of 2024
“I think the biggest flop, not, I don't want to say it's a flop, but I think the biggest disappointment of this year, to me, was OpenAI.”
Calacanis: OpenAI will drop to 3rd, 4th, or 5th AI player within three years
“I think we've hit peak open AI in the market. I think they're going to be the number three or four player. I think Gemini, Meta and XAI are going to lead them. If we're sitting here in three years, I think OpenAI is number three, four or five, not one or two.”
Sacks: OpenAI converting to for-profit without equity for Elon Musk is ridiculous
“You're making it into a for-profit. You're giving everyone shares, but the guy who puts in the original seed capital doesn't get anything. That's ridiculous.”
Elon Musk's lawsuits against OpenAI are driven by sour grapes
“Frankly, I think probably the most charitable thing to say is sour grapes because, you know, for example, I know Sam offered him as much of the investment round as he wanted. Right? Like, he could have done the whole thing. He could have let it. You know, it w…”
Palihapitiya claims Apple weaponizes privacy selectively against Meta while favoring OpenAI
“Apple really cares about privacy when they're trying to hurt a company they don't like, i.e. Meta. And they're willing to figure out a way to work around it when it's a company that they clearly support, OpenAI.”
Sachs: OpenAI's equity clawback clause was an intentional business decision, not an accident
“This didn't happen as an accident. Somebody made a strategic business decision to do this because they thought it'd be in the company's interest.”
Calacanis: OpenAI model code is not too dangerous to open-source
“Sam is claiming or OpenAI is claiming it's too dangerous to show us the open source code. I call bull on that. Their code is not too dangerous for us to see. That's complete utter bull.”
Chamath predicts public internet AI models will hit parity within nine months
“So if you are using the open internet, Lama, Mistral, OpenAI, they're all getting to the same Quality code point, and they will be there within the next six to nine months.”
Palihapitiya: OpenAI's enterprise value will fall in 2024
“I think the enterprise value of open AI goes down.”
Sacks: OpenAI board was totally incompetent for firing Altman without explanation
“The board was totally incompetent. I mean, listen, if a board is going to take a drastic action of firing the founder CEO when everything is going great. I mean, cause everything's been going great at open AI. It's incumbent on them to explain their actions an…”
Sacks: Sam Altman effectively owns 100% of OpenAI via foundation structure
“Not only do I think that Sam really owns open AI through the fig leaf, this foundation, I think he owns a hundred percent of it in the event that the call option is struck.”
Musk argues Microsoft exercises more control over OpenAI than OpenAI does
“Really what you have is, I think, at the end of the day, Microsoft having more control than OpenAI. They have access to all the source code. They have access to all the weights of the you know, GPT-IV and future versions.”
David Friedberg predicts GPT-4 training costs will drop 100x within 18 months
“If they spent four hundred million dollars in the last couple of years, you could probably assume that doing the same trading exercise could be done for five to ten million dollars, 18 months from now, to generate the same model.”
Sacks: Altman's regulatory embrace ensures he will shape new AI agency
“And by basically buying into their narrative and agreeing to everything they want, which is to create all these new regulations and a new agency, I think that Sam is pretty much guaranteeing that he'll be one of the people who gets to help shape the new agency…”
Sacks: Former employee claimed Google trained its AI using ChatGPT
“And the proof of that is there was just a lawsuit a couple of days ago, or at least a claim by a former employee of Google who quit because he said that they were using ChatGPT to train Their AI.”
Chamath: OpenAI selling 49% to Microsoft proves foundation models have capped upside
“If it was a highly proprietary asset, you would have never sold 49% of it to Microsoft for ten billion dollars, because you would assume that it was worth a trillion dollars. So it's a huge tell on the part of OpenAI, their deep understanding, and they underst…”
Sacks: OpenAI leaders shifted from non-profit to for-profit to enrich themselves
“You start with a nonprofit whose jobs promote AI ethics, and in the process of that, the people who are running it realize they can enrich themselves to an unprecedented degree that they turn it into a for-profit.”
Sacks: OpenAI's trust and safety layer shows heavy political bias
“I think there is now mounting evidence that this Safety layer programmed by OpenAI is very biased in a certain direction.”
Friedberg: AI is a leverage tool, not an incomprehensible super-intelligence
“AI is a tool of leverage. For humans. AI is not some magical genius super god that sits above us that understands things we don't understand. Every piece of the open AI message set that went back and forth between these agents is documented, can be read by peo…”
Sacks: Closed AI duopolies cannot be trusted with enterprise data
“I mean, I'm giving open AI the benefit of the doubt. I'm saying it's probably unfounded, but as long as we have a closed model duopoly of frontier AI, and they're reserving the right to get into every vertical application there is, they're declaring in advance…”
Calacanis: Nvidia is OpenAI and Anthropic's top competitor in enterprise compute
“And I believe right now, starting today, NVIDIA is the number one competitor for OpenAI and Anthropic, not just for tokens, but for enterprise compute.”
Chamath: Anthropic and OpenAI IPOs will fund over $500B in charity
“The interesting thing that's going to happen post the anthropic and open AI IPOs is if you think about the amount of charitable giving or DAFs that are going to be funded by both of these two IPOs, it's going to be north of half a trillion dollars between the …”
Sacks: AI agent accessed Hugging Face via 14 exposed public API keys
“No, the way it did it is that the agent found 14 exposed working hugging face API keys sitting in public code repositories.”
Sacks: The AI market is a duopoly of OpenAI and Anthropic
“There's two markets. There's the market for frontier intelligence, and that is a duopoly that really is anthropic and open AI. And it's good to see that that is still a horse race and they're competing. And then there's commodity intelligence, which is everybo…”