why aren't all 8 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 1 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Prediction Open · timeframe Jul 2030
Litinsky predicts US taxpayers will profit from DoD deal in five years
“It would not surprise me if when we, five years from now, hopefully we'll do this conference, and Chamath, you'll say to me, Jim, you know, I remember that deal that was the first of its kind that you did with DoD, And the government made money on you. The tax…”
Assertion Partly supported
Litinsky: Rare earth supply chain outside MP Materials is domiciled in China
“So outside of us, this entire supply chain is essentially domiciled in China.”
Assertion Contradicted
Litinsky: MP Materials is 100% of the US rare earth industry
“We're a hundred percent of the American industry.”
Disclosure
Litinsky: MP Materials building 10x capacity facility for DoD and Apple
“So we're expanding our facility in Texas for Apple. I'll talk about that in a second, but we're then going to build a Tenex facility to Tenex our capacity with DoD as our a hundred percent offtake partner customer and business partner, because we'll be splitti…”
Disclosure
Chamath: Portfolio company secured a General Motors take-or-pay supply agreement
“MP has a deal with General Motors, one of my businesses that makes LFP cathode, same deal with GM.”
Disclosure
Litinsky: MP Materials needs thousands of new hires for Apple and DOD
“We have 850 employees today at MP. We're gonna hire, when we include what we're building out for Apple coupled with what we're building with DOD, we're gonna need a couple thousand more people easily, not to mention the construction jobs.”
Assertion Partly supported
Litinsky: MP Materials generates ~$450M in run-rate EBITDA
“We're now doing approximately four hundred and fifty million of run rate EBITDA today.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Litinsky: MP Materials' Mountain Pass assets carry a $2B replacement cost
“And so these assets, this is about two billion dollars of replacement costs”