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Twitter

includes Twitter Spaces, Twitter Blue, Twitter Board, Twitter Engineers, Twitter Space

164 statements across 67 episodes · 39 bullish · 78 bearish · 13 people on the record · first statement Jun 20, 2020 by Chamath Palihapitiya · said 565 times in 125 episodes since 2020 · across every show →

Mentions by year, the whole family

brought up most by Jason Calacanis (186), David Sacks (126), David Friedberg (104), Chamath Palihapitiya (61), Elon Musk (37), Brad Gerstner (14), Senator Eric Schmitt (9), Michael Shellenberger (8)

tap a year for its mentions
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2023 77 mentions in 21 episodes 4 per episode
2022 287 mentions in 32 episodes 9 per episode
2021 84 mentions in 27 episodes 3 per episode
2020 55 mentions in 12 episodes 5 per episode

every mention, scene by scene, with the transcript →

Everything said about Twitter, oldest first

Jun 20, 2020 neutral
Opinion
Chamath: Facebook attracts middle America while Twitter serves rich coasts
“I think basically that Facebook is, is becoming middle America and Twitter is becoming sort of the coasts. And, you know, Facebook is basically a product of middle America plus kind of like countries outside the United States and, you know, Twitter's about, yo…”
Chamath Palihapitiya Jun 20, 2020 ▶ 45:57 E4: Politicizing the pandemic, Police reform, Twitter vs Facebook with David Sacks & David Friedberg
Jul 31, 2020 negative
Opinion
Chamath doubts anyone at social platforms fully understands their content algorithms
“And I would be very skeptical that anybody there really understands every single piece of content, how and why it gets weighted the way it does.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Jul 31, 2020 ▶ 1:04:04 E6: Big Tech antitrust aftermath, potential effects of an M&A clampdown on Silicon Valley & more
Jul 31, 2020 neutral
Assertion Supported
Chamath: Social platforms' system integrity tools have eliminated 6 billion fake accounts
“I mean, obviously they have system integrity tools to figure this out. That's, there's no way you could have eliminated six billion accounts if that wasn't true.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Jul 31, 2020 ▶ 1:04:20 E6: Big Tech antitrust aftermath, potential effects of an M&A clampdown on Silicon Valley & more
Jul 31, 2020 negative
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Chamath: Facebook's fake account problem is just as bad as Twitter's
“I think that there's a fake account issue on Facebook that's just as bad as Twitter.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Jul 31, 2020 ▶ 52:52 E6: Big Tech antitrust aftermath, potential effects of an M&A clampdown on Silicon Valley & more
Oct 3, 2020 negative
Opinion
Sacks: Facebook is like cigarettes, but Twitter is like fentanyl
“Twitter is a Sewer of political diatribe and polemical hate, you know, it's, I don't know anyone who feels better you know, after spending time on Twitter, you know, if Facebook is like cigarettes, you know, I don't know what Twitter is. I mean, it's like fent…”
David Sacks Oct 3, 2020 ▶ 51:51 E9: Trump has COVID, First debate reactions, Coinbase letter response & more
Oct 3, 2020
Insight
Sacks: Company value stems from products, not CEO political platitudes
“The societal value of a company doesn't come from whatever platitudes or political statements its CEO makes, but rather from the quality of its products and the impact of its products.”
David Sacks Oct 3, 2020 ▶ 51:30 E9: Trump has COVID, First debate reactions, Coinbase letter response & more
Oct 16, 2020
Opinion
Chamath: Section 230 claims are harder to bring against Reddit
“I think it's very hard to pin a section two 30 claim on Reddit as easy as it is YouTube, Facebook, and Twitter.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Oct 16, 2020 ▶ 24:26 E10: Twitter & Facebook botch censorship (again), the publisher vs. distributor debate & more
Oct 16, 2020 bearish
Prediction Open · timeframe Oct 2025
Chamath: Section 230 protections for major tech platforms are numbered
“But if I was a betting man, which I am, I think that section two 30 is, their days are numbered, and Facebook, Twitter, Google, all these companies are going to have to look more like newspapers and television stations.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Oct 16, 2020 ▶ 7:15 E10: Twitter & Facebook botch censorship (again), the publisher vs. distributor debate & more
Oct 16, 2020 negative
What-if
Sacks: Consistent moderation rules would have blocked Trump tax return coverage
“Because if they were to apply these standards evenly, they would have blocked the Trump tax returns for the exact same reason.”
David Sacks Oct 16, 2020 ▶ 30:32 E10: Twitter & Facebook botch censorship (again), the publisher vs. distributor debate & more
Nov 4, 2020 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Sacks: Twitter and Jack Dorsey will be political scapegoats post-election
“I think this time around it's going to be Twitter because they have been so arrogant and their assertion of their right to censor viewpoints they don't lock. And if the Republicans hold on to the Senate and or the presidency, I think you're going to see Jack D…”
David Sacks Nov 4, 2020 ▶ 1:28:12 E11: Election Night Special featuring Phil Hellmuth, Bill Gurley, Brad Gerstner & more!
Dec 18, 2020 negative
Opinion
Chamath: Facebook, Twitter, and Medium suppressed facts and science in 2020
“The amount of people that have been muzzled, stifled, the amount of fact and science that literally just gets judged willy-nilly by our distribution points like Facebook and Twitter and Medium. It's really scary. So censorship made a roaring comeback in 2020.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Dec 18, 2020 ▶ 34:30 E15: “The Besties” All-In’s inaugural award show covering the best, worst & most memorable of 2020
Jan 11, 2021 negative
Opinion
Chamath: Arbitrary tech platform bans are as dangerous as the Capitol attack
“I know that you may think banning him from Twitter is so much lower than this attack on the capital, and I'm telling you it's not, because the slippery slope of event, event number one is so obvious. The prosecution of that is so obvious. The law is so complet…”
Chamath Palihapitiya Jan 11, 2021 ▶ 1:15:22 E17: Big Tech bans Trump, ramifications for the First Amendment & the open Internet
Jan 11, 2021 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Calacanis: Trump's businesses will be devastated by bans and cancelled partnerships
“This is close to a hundred million followers. It's a billion dollars in value. He just had the PGA say, they'll never you do a Trump golf course again. So the realm of the real world ramifications for Trump are he's, his businesses are going to be devastated. …”
Jason Calacanis Jan 11, 2021 ▶ 28:21 E17: Big Tech bans Trump, ramifications for the First Amendment & the open Internet
Jan 11, 2021 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Sacks: Foreign leaders will stop relying on Twitter after Trump ban
“You have the leaders of many countries across the world using Twitter as a as a channel. Do you think they are now going to want to rely on that given that Twitter can censor them at any time? They're going to hand that lever of national power To Jack Dorsey? …”
David Sacks Jan 11, 2021 ▶ 1:03:42 E17: Big Tech bans Trump, ramifications for the First Amendment & the open Internet
Jan 23, 2021 bearish
Opinion
Sacks: Deplatforming by Facebook and Twitter strips citizens of speech rights
“The town square is now owned by Facebook and Twitter. The town square got privatized and our speech rights are now in the hands of Mark Zuckerberg and Jack Dorsey as a practical matter. I mean, you do not have speech rights in the modern world if you get depla…”
David Sacks Jan 23, 2021 ▶ 29:25 E18: Inauguration talk, breaking down the $1.9T stimulus, the case for recalling Gavin Newsom & more
Feb 20, 2021
Disclosure
Twitter blocked Sacks from a 2007 secondary share purchase via ROFR
“So back in 2007 I thought Twitter was going to take off. I had like a former employee who wanted to sell secondary. And so, you know, I had a deal worked out to buy, I think a couple 100,000 dollars of shares at, I don't know, a forty million dollar valuation …”
David Sacks Feb 20, 2021 ▶ 1:07:43 E23: Radical DAs, breaking down FB/Google vs. Australia, sustained fear post-vaccine & fan questions
May 22, 2021
Assertion Partly supported
Sacks says Twitter offered $4B to acquire Clubhouse and was rejected
“Well, they got a, they got an acquisition offer from Twitter for four billion, and they turned, they did this.”
David Sacks May 22, 2021 ▶ 51:53 E33: Apple’s hypocrisy, America fails math, crypto’s regulatory correction, Clubhouse, UFOs & more
Sep 14, 2021 negative
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Sacks: Twitter and Facebook do not punish left-wing misinformation
“Twitter and Facebook do not punish people on the left for misinformation. That is a penalty. They only meter out for people who disagree with their cultural and political biases.”
David Sacks Sep 14, 2021 ▶ 6:32 E46: False Ivermectin narratives, regulatory grift, wartime mentality in solving issues & more
Sep 18, 2021 negative
Assertion Supported
Sacks: Rachel Maddow's ivermectin tweets went unfact-checked on Twitter
“For some reason, the Rachel Maddow tweets went unfact checked. As far as I know, they're still unfact checked.”
David Sacks Sep 18, 2021 ▶ 1:32:23 E47: Facebook's week from hell, Ellen Pao on sexism in Elizabeth Holmes coverage, Newsom wins & more
Sep 18, 2021 negative
Disclosure
Chamath: I ban my children from using major social media platforms
“My blunt force instruments are you're not allowed to have well, the ones that we've, we, they're not allowed to have TikTok, Snapchat, Facebook, Instagram, Twitter.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Sep 18, 2021 ▶ 1:04:22 E47: Facebook's week from hell, Ellen Pao on sexism in Elizabeth Holmes coverage, Newsom wins & more
Oct 9, 2021 neutral
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Friedberg: Heavy platform regulation will drive users to unregulated decentralized alternatives
“If they start putting the regulatory hammer down on these quote unquote, platforms telling them what they can and cannot make available to their users, there will be another platform that will emerge. And that platform may end up being in this kind of decentra…”
David Friedberg Oct 9, 2021 ▶ 1:03:02 E50: Crypto investing deep dive, Facebook's whistleblower fallout, Chappelle's new special & more
Dec 4, 2021 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Friedberg: TikTok will capture user-generated event video market if Twitter restricts consent
“Don't you think the biggest winner here is going to be TikTok because if Twitter does go forward with the standing. Yeah, if they say, look, you can't put user generated content on our platform if it has video and images of personal of people without their con…”
David Friedberg Dec 4, 2021 ▶ 1:14:32 E57: Understanding Omicron, tech stocks plummet, VC's great resignation, Jack Dorsey's departure
Dec 4, 2021 negative
Opinion
Sacks: Twitter censorship principles exist solely to suppress opposing political views
“These censorship principles only exist so the employees of the company can censor one side of the debate that they don't agree with.”
David Sacks Dec 4, 2021 ▶ 1:16:43 E57: Understanding Omicron, tech stocks plummet, VC's great resignation, Jack Dorsey's departure
Dec 4, 2021 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Sacks: Twitter censorship will worsen after Jack Dorsey leaves
“Things are only going to get worse once he's gone.”
David Sacks Dec 4, 2021 ▶ 1:09:38 E57: Understanding Omicron, tech stocks plummet, VC's great resignation, Jack Dorsey's departure
Dec 4, 2021 negative
Assertion Supported
Sacks: Incoming Twitter CEO Parag Agrawal rejected First Amendment principles
“Parag, who said last year in 2020, there's an article where he basically said that Twitter Does not need to follow the principles of the first amendment and its content moderation policy.”
David Sacks Dec 4, 2021 ▶ 1:07:57 E57: Understanding Omicron, tech stocks plummet, VC's great resignation, Jack Dorsey's departure
Dec 17, 2021 negative
Assertion Supported
Sacks: Twitter failed to deliver Dorsey's promised algorithmic transparency to Congress
“I think we need some of the transparency that Jack Dorsey repeatedly promised at all the congressional hearings. Remember when he got hauled up there, he promised that they would give more transparency about the way that their algorithms worked. Where is that?…”
David Sacks Dec 17, 2021 ▶ 12:05 E59: Twitter's content warning algo, equity audits, politicians trading stocks, Fed's next move
Dec 23, 2021 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Friedberg: More CEOs will communicate directly on Twitter in coming years
“Creates a model that a lot of other CEOs I think should and will start to follow. And I think we'll see a lot more of this kind of like Twitter going direct type of activity happening in the years ahead.”
David Friedberg Dec 23, 2021 ▶ 50:19 E60: The 2021 Bestie Awards PLUS Jack Dorsey starts the Web3 Wars
Feb 5, 2022 negative
Insight
Friedberg: Internet platforms are de facto publishers, not neutral access tools
“And in all these cases, from Google, to YouTube, to Twitter, and now to Spotify, the idea of being just an access, a platform for access is proving to be wrong. All of them are de facto publishers.”
David Friedberg Feb 5, 2022 ▶ 1:12:35 E66: $FB's big drop, Rogan/Spotify mess, Xi/Putin meetup & supply chain issues with Ryan Petersen
Apr 1, 2022
Assertion Supported
Calacanis: Twitter had two employees working for Saudi Arabia
“Oh, they had Twitter had it. They had two people from the kingdom working there.”
Jason Calacanis Apr 1, 2022 ▶ 1:18:32 E74: Market update, inverted yield curve, immigration, new SPAC rules, $FB smears TikTok and more
Apr 9, 2022 positive
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Friedberg: Elon Musk will ignore complaints from Twitter employees, regulators, and shareholders
“I don't think he'll care what employees kind of gripe about. I don't think he'll care what regulators gripe about. And I don't think he'll care what other shareholders gripe about. He'll talk about the long-term opportunity, the philosophical alignment with mi…”
David Friedberg Apr 9, 2022 ▶ 51:37 E75: Fast shuts down, board culpability, Elon buys 9% of Twitter, deplatforming's evolution & more
Apr 9, 2022 positive
Opinion
Palihapitiya: Twitter free speech impact could exceed Tesla and SpaceX
“I think that if he is able to make free speech cool again, he'll, he'll actually do more doing that than potentially through SpaceX and Tesla, and that's already saying a lot.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Apr 9, 2022 ▶ 45:14 E75: Fast shuts down, board culpability, Elon buys 9% of Twitter, deplatforming's evolution & more
Apr 9, 2022 positive
Prediction Held up
Palihapitiya: Trump will likely be allowed back on Twitter after three years
“I think all roads will probably lead to a conclusion that after three years, it's probably okay to let this guy back and be able to tweet.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Apr 9, 2022 ▶ 58:51 E75: Fast shuts down, board culpability, Elon buys 9% of Twitter, deplatforming's evolution & more
Apr 9, 2022 positive
Opinion
Palihapitiya: Twitter's structure uniquely allows Musk to enforce free speech
“You know that none of the other big tech companies will ever even do that. And the capital structures of those companies will never allow a single strong voice like his to enforce that idea. So this is the only company where that could happen.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Apr 9, 2022 ▶ 46:37 E75: Fast shuts down, board culpability, Elon buys 9% of Twitter, deplatforming's evolution & more
Apr 9, 2022 neutral
Assertion Partly supported
Friedberg: Jack Dorsey was Twitter's largest single shareholder at 2.3%
“The largest single shareholder in Twitter to date has been Jack Dorsey at 2.3%.”
David Friedberg Apr 9, 2022 ▶ 47:57 E75: Fast shuts down, board culpability, Elon buys 9% of Twitter, deplatforming's evolution & more
Apr 16, 2022 negative
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Calacanis: Twitter generated $625,000 in revenue per employee in 2021
“20, 21 revenue is five billion. They have 8000 employees. Back of the envelope, 625,000 dollars per employee in revenue.”
Jason Calacanis Apr 16, 2022 ▶ 39:24 E76: Elon vs. Twitter
Apr 16, 2022 bearish
Prediction Held up
Sacks: Agrawal will be ousted immediately if Musk buys Twitter
“If Elon wins this battle, Parag is going to have the shortest executive career since that Pope who got poisoned.”
David Sacks Apr 16, 2022 ▶ 14:29 E76: Elon vs. Twitter
Apr 16, 2022 neutral
Disclosure
Chamath previously pitched David Sacks as Twitter CEO in activist bid
“I think it was six years ago, five years ago, I did approach Twitter with another large investor. But it was more of a friendly activist thing, and David was our nominated CEO to rip that place apart.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Apr 16, 2022 ▶ 40:35 E76: Elon vs. Twitter
Apr 16, 2022 bearish
Prediction Partly held up
Chamath: Twitter board will fail to find a competing bidder
“They have to take Elon's offer and they have to create a go shop. I will go and try to get a better price. They won't be able to. And the reason they won't be able to is not a single person who is capable of stepping up with forty three billion dollars would e…”
Chamath Palihapitiya Apr 16, 2022 ▶ 24:54 E76: Elon vs. Twitter
Apr 16, 2022 positive
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Calacanis: Tesla AI engineers could solve Twitter's bot problem in days
“If he took one of the AI people working on self-driving and dropped them into Twitter, one, they would solve the bot problem, the spam problem in 30 days with one. And if, God forbid, he sent three. They would solve it in the weekend.”
Jason Calacanis Apr 16, 2022 ▶ 42:11 E76: Elon vs. Twitter
Apr 16, 2022 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Palihapitiya: Free speech Twitter could be Elon Musk's biggest societal contribution
“I think if he does get a control of Twitter, and there is A strong, reliable moral force for free speech. I think that's actually going to be his biggest contribution to society”
Chamath Palihapitiya Apr 16, 2022 ▶ 45:05 E76: Elon vs. Twitter
Apr 16, 2022 positive
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Sacks: Musk running Twitter will reduce harassment by eliminating bots
“There'd be less harassment because he'd get rid of all the bots. He'd, he'd impose an authenticity requirement.”
David Sacks Apr 16, 2022 ▶ 42:51 E76: Elon vs. Twitter
Apr 16, 2022 neutral
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Sacks: Biden FTC would allow Big Tech to buy Twitter over Musk
“I think this administration does not want to see Twitter become a free speech company again. And so the political winds will blow towards letting, I think, Twitter be acquired by a big tech company, even if it means big tech gets bigger. Wait a second. So I th…”
David Sacks Apr 16, 2022 ▶ 26:49 E76: Elon vs. Twitter
Apr 16, 2022 bearish
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Friedberg: Twitter board will reject offer and Musk will walk away
“They're gonna try and find the best price. They're gonna reject his offer. I don't think he's gonna up the offer significantly to the point to get it to get it done. They're gonna go out and run a long strategic process. Three months from now, we're still gonn…”
David Friedberg Apr 16, 2022 ▶ 51:22 E76: Elon vs. Twitter
Apr 16, 2022 bearish
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Calacanis: Twitter avoids eliminating bots to prevent a 20% activity drop
“The problem is they don't want the bots to go because the only sign of life in that business Is spammers and, you know, all these fake accounts being created, so they're just scared to take that 20% hit.”
Jason Calacanis Apr 16, 2022 ▶ 42:56 E76: Elon vs. Twitter
Apr 16, 2022 bullish
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Calacanis: Musk will buy Twitter at a lower price by year-end
“My prediction is the Board tries to fight it. Stock collapses. Nobody thinks it's going to get done. Elon lowers his offer, and he wins it by the end of the year, and gives him a lower offer.”
Jason Calacanis Apr 16, 2022 ▶ 55:26 E76: Elon vs. Twitter
Apr 16, 2022 bearish
Opinion
Sacks: Twitter could fire 50% of staff with no operational impact
“You could fire half those people or more, there'd be absolutely no impact to the business. In fact, they probably run better because right now they probably got too many meetings happening with too many people.”
David Sacks Apr 16, 2022 ▶ 39:57 E76: Elon vs. Twitter
Apr 16, 2022 negative
Assertion Partly supported
Chamath: Twitter stock is unchanged since 2013
“First of all, the stock is basically the same price it was in December of 2013.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Apr 16, 2022 ▶ 33:30 E76: Elon vs. Twitter
Apr 16, 2022 bearish
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Sacks: Twitter stock will fall to pre-offer level if takeover rejected
“The stock is going right back to that previous level. If they turn down this proposal.”
David Sacks Apr 16, 2022 ▶ 21:20 E76: Elon vs. Twitter
Apr 16, 2022 bearish
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Sacks predicts elites and media will stop Musk from acquiring Twitter
“Elon is gonna be thwarted by these folks. He's not gonna get control of this company. They're, the vested interest in stopping him by the board, by the new CEO, and by the corporate media and the political elites is too great. They will find a way to stop him.”
David Sacks Apr 16, 2022 ▶ 48:53 E76: Elon vs. Twitter
Apr 16, 2022 neutral
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Chamath: Musk will use public pressure on Twitter shareholders
“And I think what Elon will try to do is essentially use the public pressure that's going to build and the existing shareholders who own stock at 40 some odd dollars A chance to basically get, you know, a 20% payday by selling it to Elon for 54 bucks or 53, wha…”
Chamath Palihapitiya Apr 16, 2022 ▶ 7:18 E76: Elon vs. Twitter
Apr 30, 2022 neutral
Prediction Open · timeframe Apr 2027
Palihapitiya: Musk will eventually donate Twitter to a foundation and trust
“I think he's going to donate it into a foundation and a trust.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Apr 30, 2022 ▶ 1:31:15 E78: VC fund metrics that matter, private market update, recession, student loans, Bill Hwang arrest
Apr 30, 2022 bullish
Prediction Open · timeframe Apr 2027
Calacanis: Twitter will re-IPO at five times its current valuation
“I think it goes public again at, and it goes to five times evaluation.”
Jason Calacanis Apr 30, 2022 ▶ 1:32:40 E78: VC fund metrics that matter, private market update, recession, student loans, Bill Hwang arrest
Apr 30, 2022 bullish
Prediction Open · timeframe Apr 2029
Palihapitiya: Musk will acquire Twitter and double its valuation to $100B
“I think he's going to buy Twitter. I think he's going to clean it up. I think he's probably going to generate something like a two X on this. You know, we talked about how, you know, that's like a good terminal valuation in six or seven years that basically, y…”
Chamath Palihapitiya Apr 30, 2022 ▶ 1:30:39 E78: VC fund metrics that matter, private market update, recession, student loans, Bill Hwang arrest
May 16, 2022 bearish
Disclosure
Musk refuses to pay agreed Twitter price if public filings are inaccurate
“So, in, in making the Twitter offer, I was obviously reliant upon the truth and accuracy of their public filings, and if those filings are not accurate. It's simply not, that's, that it's not, you can't pay the same price for something that is much worse than …”
Elon Musk May 16, 2022 ▶ 23:46 Elon Musk: Twitter's bot problem, SpaceX's grand plan, Tesla stories & more
May 16, 2022 negative
Assertion Partly supported
Elon Musk estimates at least 20% of Twitter accounts are bots
“I think it's some number that is probably at least four or five times that number. I'd say at if you did sort of the lowest estimate would be probably 20%. And this is a bunch of quite smart outside firms have done analysis of Twitter and looked at the sort of…”
Elon Musk May 16, 2022 ▶ 3:15 Elon Musk: Twitter's bot problem, SpaceX's grand plan, Tesla stories & more
May 16, 2022 positive
Opinion
Elon Musk: Twitter should publish its algorithm open-source on GitHub
“Why I think it's important to put the algorithm on, on GitHub and actually allow the public to see it and critique it and improve it.”
Elon Musk May 16, 2022 ▶ 8:04 Elon Musk: Twitter's bot problem, SpaceX's grand plan, Tesla stories & more
May 16, 2022 negative
Opinion
Elon Musk: Twitter has a very far-left political bias
“The reality is that, that Twitter at this point, you know, has a very far left bias.”
Elon Musk May 16, 2022 ▶ 8:48 Elon Musk: Twitter's bot problem, SpaceX's grand plan, Tesla stories & more
May 26, 2022 negative
Prediction Held up
Rabois: A flipped Congress will subpoena Twitter over foreign government influence
“But the government, if the U.S. Congress is turned over, there's gonna be a lot of subpoenas flying over to Twitter, because there are absolutely foreign governments influencing some of those decisions at Twitter.”
Keith Rabois May 26, 2022 ▶ 37:26 #AIS: Tim Urban on political discourse + Keith Rabois on early-stage investing in 2022
May 26, 2022 bearish
Prediction Held up
Rabois: Elon Musk acquiring Twitter will be a bad financial investment
“Yes, Elon should buy Twitter to save the world, but it's not going to be a good financial investment.”
Keith Rabois May 26, 2022 ▶ 36:11 #AIS: Tim Urban on political discourse + Keith Rabois on early-stage investing in 2022
Aug 5, 2022
Disclosure
Palihapitiya says he approached Twitter as a friendly activist around 2016-2017
“Five, five or six years ago, I approached Twitter about what I would have called a friendly activist.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Aug 5, 2022 ▶ 10:12 E90: Twitter subpoenas, market overview, Pelosi's Taiwan visit & more
Aug 5, 2022
Disclosure
Sacks says he was never subpoenaed individually prior to Twitter litigation
“I've been maybe subpoenaed like three times in my entire career, and I've never been subpoenaed in my capacity as an individual.”
David Sacks Aug 5, 2022 ▶ 6:41 E90: Twitter subpoenas, market overview, Pelosi's Taiwan visit & more
Aug 5, 2022
Disclosure
Sacks denies coordinating with Elon Musk prior to podcast media appearances
“I had no coordination with Elon before appearing on any of those shows. I just went on those shows and said what I think.”
David Sacks Aug 5, 2022 ▶ 7:43 E90: Twitter subpoenas, market overview, Pelosi's Taiwan visit & more
Aug 26, 2022 bullish
Opinion
Sacks: Whistleblower complaint is a legal windfall for Elon Musk
“I do think that this whole thing is a windfall for Elon's case. Because it does seem to provide substantiation for Elon's assertion that there's a bot problem at Twitter now.”
David Sacks Aug 26, 2022 ▶ 18:48 E93: Twitter whistleblower, cloud security vulnerabilities, student debt forgiveness & more
Aug 26, 2022 neutral
Prediction Open · timeframe Aug 2027
Chamath: Senate Intelligence Committee will summon Twitter over espionage
“Well, I think it's fair to say that the Senate Intelligence Committee is going to haul Twitter and have like a closed door meeting.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Aug 26, 2022 ▶ 25:30 E93: Twitter whistleblower, cloud security vulnerabilities, student debt forgiveness & more
Aug 26, 2022 neutral
Assertion Supported
Sacks: Twitter seeks to depose him in Elon Musk lawsuit
“They want to depo me too”
David Sacks Aug 26, 2022 ▶ 3:44 E93: Twitter whistleblower, cloud security vulnerabilities, student debt forgiveness & more
Aug 26, 2022 neutral
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Chamath: Twitter-Elon lawsuit will end in settlement or price cut
“The most likely outcome here is a settlement where you have to pay the economic difference between where the stock is now and 54 20, which is more than a billion dollars, or you close at some number below 54 dollars and 20 cents a share.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Aug 26, 2022 ▶ 13:56 E93: Twitter whistleblower, cloud security vulnerabilities, student debt forgiveness & more
Oct 7, 2022 negative
Opinion
Calacanis: Twitter should have suspended Trump for one year instead of lifetime
“Like Trump should not have been given a lifetime ban. They should have given him a one year ban.”
Jason Calacanis Oct 7, 2022 ▶ 1:20:50 E99: Cheating scandals, Twitter updates, rapid AI advancements, Biden's pardon, Section 230 & more
Oct 7, 2022
Disclosure
Chamath evaluated an activist investment play at Twitter around 2016
“One thing is when I looked at doing an activist play at Twitter, I think I mentioned this five or six years ago.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Oct 7, 2022 ▶ 23:25 E99: Cheating scandals, Twitter updates, rapid AI advancements, Biden's pardon, Section 230 & more
Oct 7, 2022 bullish
Prediction Held up
Chamath: Elon Musk's acquisition of Twitter will probably close within weeks
“And so I think this deal is going to close. It's probably going to close in the next few weeks.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Oct 7, 2022 ▶ 21:58 E99: Cheating scandals, Twitter updates, rapid AI advancements, Biden's pardon, Section 230 & more
Oct 14, 2022 negative
Insight
Calacanis: Journalists gain followers and income taking tribal, partisan stances
“And so then what happens is how is follower count on Twitter actually derived? How do you get that follow account by being tribal? And so what's happened is journalists have became tribal, they get big followings, they give spicy takes, they pick a side, and t…”
Jason Calacanis Oct 14, 2022 ▶ 17:41 E100: Reflecting on the first 100 shows, fan questions, nuclear threat, markets, Amazon & more
Oct 14, 2022 negative
Opinion
Chamath: Journalism is irrelevant because raw facts propagate instantly online
“It's irrelevant, and I'll tell you why. Because the facts are known instantaneously on Twitter and through the internet. We don't need people to relay facts. We need people to wrap facts in context and allow us to come to our own conclusions.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Oct 14, 2022 ▶ 15:29 E100: Reflecting on the first 100 shows, fan questions, nuclear threat, markets, Amazon & more
Oct 29, 2022 bearish
Assertion Supported
Sacks: Twitter loses a few hundred million dollars a quarter
“I think Twitter's losing, you know, a few hundred million dollars a quarter.”
David Sacks Oct 29, 2022 ▶ 13:26 E102: Elon closes Twitter deal, $META uncertainty, Zuck's historic bet, big tech decline & more
Oct 29, 2022 positive
Opinion
Sacks: Donald Trump should be reinstated on Twitter
“Do I think that Trump should be allowed back? Yeah, I do.”
David Sacks Oct 29, 2022 ▶ 22:13 E102: Elon closes Twitter deal, $META uncertainty, Zuck's historic bet, big tech decline & more
Oct 29, 2022 neutral
Assertion Supported
Friedberg: Twitter was acquired at $172 per MAU versus Meta's $81
“I just sent you guys this link from this analyst and he said that Twitter was bought at 172 dollars per monthly active user compared to 81 dollars per monthly active user at Meta where they sit today.”
David Friedberg Oct 29, 2022 ▶ 7:23 E102: Elon closes Twitter deal, $META uncertainty, Zuck's historic bet, big tech decline & more
Oct 29, 2022 neutral
Assertion Supported
Sacks: Elon Musk chose single-class stock over dual-class for Twitter
“If you look at Elon's Twitter deal, there is no dual class. Everybody has, there's this one class of security. This is one type of stock. So it's simple majority voting. Elon actually had the choice of doing dual class and he decided not to.”
David Sacks Oct 29, 2022 ▶ 46:53 E102: Elon closes Twitter deal, $META uncertainty, Zuck's historic bet, big tech decline & more
Oct 29, 2022 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Calacanis: Elon Musk will quickly turn Twitter around and make it profitable
“There's no doubt that I think Elon can turn this around pretty quickly. And to make it massively profitable, I think, and clean up the bot problem very quickly.”
Jason Calacanis Oct 29, 2022 ▶ 6:18 E102: Elon closes Twitter deal, $META uncertainty, Zuck's historic bet, big tech decline & more
Oct 29, 2022 positive
Opinion
Chamath: Parag Agrawal deserves a statue for Twitter's $54.20 buyout price
“Quite honestly, though, like on the other side of this, I would say Parag Agrawal does deserve a statue for shareholder value creation. What he, what, 54, 20 a share, which by the way, we said was going to happen and it did happen was ginormous in this market.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Oct 29, 2022 ▶ 3:51 E102: Elon closes Twitter deal, $META uncertainty, Zuck's historic bet, big tech decline & more
Oct 29, 2022 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Chamath: Twitter's value per active user could double or triple under Musk
“I think the best way to think about it is he bought a quarter of a billion mouths for forty four billion dollars, and in the grand scheme of things, that is, I think, going to turn out to be pretty reasonably cheap, especially if he can layer in a few of his b…”
Chamath Palihapitiya Oct 29, 2022 ▶ 6:57 E102: Elon closes Twitter deal, $META uncertainty, Zuck's historic bet, big tech decline & more
Nov 5, 2022 neutral
Disclosure
Sacks denies leaving Craft Ventures for a permanent role at Twitter
“I've gotten all sorts of inbound from people asking me if I'm like leaving craft ventures to do something at Twitter. No, it's not true. We're just, Jason and I are just pitching in and helping out while Elon establishes his permanent team at that company.”
David Sacks Nov 5, 2022 ▶ 1:31 E103: Tech layoffs surge, big tech freezes hiring, optimizing for profits, election preview & more
Nov 5, 2022 positive
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Friedberg: Successful Twitter cuts could trigger wave of software buyouts
“If Elon is successful in making Twitter a much more profitable enterprise, it could set a new model that catalyzes a lot of other M&A activity, a lot of other buyout activity of these distressed small and mid-cap companies by other actors.”
David Friedberg Nov 5, 2022 ▶ 20:55 E103: Tech layoffs surge, big tech freezes hiring, optimizing for profits, election preview & more
Nov 5, 2022
Assertion Supported
Sacks: Musk did not change Twitter content moderation rules post-acquisition
“The truth is Elon hasn't even had a chance To change anything about the content moderation policies. He's posted that, like, guys, I haven't even, I haven't changed anything about content moderation. Whatever the rules are, they're the same rules that existed …”
David Sacks Nov 5, 2022 ▶ 3:49 E103: Tech layoffs surge, big tech freezes hiring, optimizing for profits, election preview & more
Nov 5, 2022 positive
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Friedberg: Twitter micropayments for news articles will be a super feature
“Having some integration there or some ability to kind of make a micro purchase to read an article is going to be I think a super feature.”
David Friedberg Nov 5, 2022 ▶ 6:22 E103: Tech layoffs surge, big tech freezes hiring, optimizing for profits, election preview & more
Nov 5, 2022
Assertion Partly supported
Sacks: Twitter's racist post surge was a 4chan bot attack
“What happened is that within hours of Elon taking over the company on Friday, there was a four Chan attack where basically people from this message board created bots to post hundreds of thousands of spam messages that contained Racist words and epithets.”
David Sacks Nov 5, 2022 ▶ 2:35 E103: Tech layoffs surge, big tech freezes hiring, optimizing for profits, election preview & more
Nov 5, 2022 positive
Opinion
Friedberg: Elon Musk's Twitter cuts set a new standard for tech layoffs
“This is what I think the Elon action this week really sets a standard. He shows the entirety of Silicon Valley that you can cut deep and you can turn a profit and you can do it fast. And it could set a new standard for how folks are managing this.”
David Friedberg Nov 5, 2022 ▶ 46:44 E103: Tech layoffs surge, big tech freezes hiring, optimizing for profits, election preview & more
Nov 5, 2022 negative
Assertion Supported
Friedberg: CNBC's Deirdre Bosa publicly apologized for fake Twitter layoff report
“Several of them, including, I think, Deirdre Bosa from CNBC came out and publicly apologized for that report.”
David Friedberg Nov 5, 2022 ▶ 9:32 E103: Tech layoffs surge, big tech freezes hiring, optimizing for profits, election preview & more
Nov 19, 2022 negative
Assertion Partly supported
Chamath: Twitter's MAU grew 50% while headcount increased 7.5x
“Twitter had two hundred million MAU. They had only a thousand employees. And so clearly at that point, they knew what they were doing. And now the business has, you know, increased in MAU by call it 50% to 300 million, but the employee base increased by seven …”
Chamath Palihapitiya Nov 19, 2022 ▶ 1:21:18 E105: Tech culture wars: Elon vs. SBF, Sabotaging Republicans with Trump
Dec 10, 2022 negative
Assertion Supported
Calacanis: Twitter Files confirm secret blacklists tagged conservative voices
“We now have confirmation that what the right thought was happening all along, which is a secret silencing system built into the software. Of blacklists was tagging right-wing conservative voices in the system.”
Jason Calacanis Dec 10, 2022 ▶ 4:35 E107: The Twitter Files Parts 1-2: shadow banning, story suppression, interference & more
Dec 10, 2022 negative
Assertion Supported
Calacanis: Twitter tagged Charlie Kirk with 'Do Not Amplify'
“Charlie Kirk, who is a conservative commentator, he was tagged with do not amplify.”
Jason Calacanis Dec 10, 2022 ▶ 5:18 E107: The Twitter Files Parts 1-2: shadow banning, story suppression, interference & more
Dec 10, 2022 negative
Assertion Partly supported
Sacks: Twitter suppressed Hunter Biden laptop story before 2020 election
“What he did was confirm that a completely true story by the New York Post about Hunter Biden that came out a month before the election was suppressed by Twitter executives, including at the behest of, you know, of FBI agents and former security state officials…”
David Sacks Dec 10, 2022 ▶ 33:15 E107: The Twitter Files Parts 1-2: shadow banning, story suppression, interference & more
Dec 10, 2022 negative
Assertion Partly supported
Sacks: FBI warned social networks to suppress authentic Hunter Biden laptop story
“A very important piece of this was the pre-bunking that the FBI went to Facebook and Twitter and social networks and said, be on the lookout for a story about Hunter Biden. It is Russian disinformation. And they primed these social networks to suppress that st…”
David Sacks Dec 10, 2022 ▶ 39:30 E107: The Twitter Files Parts 1-2: shadow banning, story suppression, interference & more
Dec 10, 2022 negative
Assertion Supported
Sacks: Twitter execs maintained hack framing despite internal pushback
“Jim Baker and Vijaya Gotti said, okay, that there were a lot of internal questions about whether that, that Hunter Biden story could be justified under the hacked policy. And there were many legitimate questions raised internally about whether they could maint…”
David Sacks Dec 10, 2022 ▶ 46:51 E107: The Twitter Files Parts 1-2: shadow banning, story suppression, interference & more
Dec 10, 2022 neutral
Assertion Supported
Calacanis: Twitter and Facebook did not know if laptop story was hacked
“Twitter and Facebook did not know.”
Jason Calacanis Dec 10, 2022 ▶ 46:39 E107: The Twitter Files Parts 1-2: shadow banning, story suppression, interference & more
Dec 10, 2022 negative
Opinion
Sacks: Twitter's undisclosed moderation is an FTX-level free speech fraud
“This is an FTX level fraud, except that what was stolen here was not customer funds, it was their free speech rights.”
David Sacks Dec 10, 2022 ▶ 6:57 E107: The Twitter Files Parts 1-2: shadow banning, story suppression, interference & more
Dec 10, 2022 negative
Assertion Supported
Sacks: Twitter Files prove executives lied about shadowbanning political viewpoints
“You had statement after statement by Twitter executives like Jack Dorsey, like Vijaya, Gadi, like, you know, Yoel and others saying we do not shadow ban. And then they also said, we certainly, this is their emphasis, do not shadow ban on the basis of political…”
David Sacks Dec 10, 2022 ▶ 7:15 E107: The Twitter Files Parts 1-2: shadow banning, story suppression, interference & more
Dec 10, 2022 negative
Assertion Supported
Calacanis: Twitter placed Dan Bongino on a search blacklist
“He was tagged with being on a search blacklist.”
Jason Calacanis Dec 10, 2022 ▶ 4:57 E107: The Twitter Files Parts 1-2: shadow banning, story suppression, interference & more
Dec 10, 2022 negative
Assertion Partly supported
Sacks: Twitter suppressed Libs of TikTok despite admitting no policy violation
“There are conversations in the Slack that Barry Weiss exposed where, for example, Libs of TikTok, they admit in the Slack that we can't suppress Libs of TikTok based on our hate policy. Libs of TikTok hasn't violated it. We're going to suppress that account an…”
David Sacks Dec 10, 2022 ▶ 8:09 E107: The Twitter Files Parts 1-2: shadow banning, story suppression, interference & more
Dec 10, 2022 negative
Assertion Supported
Calacanis: Twitter placed Jay Bhattacharya on a trends blacklist
“And then there were people who were banned from the trends blacklist, including a Stanford professor, Jay Bhattacharya.”
Jason Calacanis Dec 10, 2022 ▶ 5:28 E107: The Twitter Files Parts 1-2: shadow banning, story suppression, interference & more
Dec 10, 2022 negative
Assertion Partly supported
Calacanis: Twitter's workforce is 96% to 97% left-leaning
“It's pretty clear what happened here, because these all occurred with a group of people working at Twitter, which is 96 or 97% left-leaning. The statistics are clear.”
Jason Calacanis Dec 10, 2022 ▶ 25:58 E107: The Twitter Files Parts 1-2: shadow banning, story suppression, interference & more
Dec 16, 2022 neutral
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Calacanis: Coordinated tech bans dramatically reduce individual reach
“When they got banned across all systems, it was dramatic in terms of the reach of the that information. So because of the size and scale of YouTube, Facebook, Twitter, etc, when they act in coordination, They can, ah, have a dramatic impact.”
Jason Calacanis Dec 16, 2022 ▶ 17:12 E108: Doxing debate, Nuclear fusion breakthrough, state of the markets & more
Dec 16, 2022 negative
Opinion
Calacanis: Comedians view Twitter as a cancellation risk, not a venue for discourse
“A bigger point right now, and this does tie into our first story, is I think comedians look at Twitter as a place to get canceled, not a place to be part of the discourse”
Jason Calacanis Dec 16, 2022 ▶ 50:08 E108: Doxing debate, Nuclear fusion breakthrough, state of the markets & more
Dec 16, 2022 negative
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Sacks: Twitter's plane-tracking ban will prove futile
“I think this policy with regard to planes specifically is going to be futile. It's going to be at best harm reduction because as long as there's many ways to publish this information on Reddit, it's on Facebook.”
David Sacks Dec 16, 2022 ▶ 16:26 E108: Doxing debate, Nuclear fusion breakthrough, state of the markets & more
Dec 16, 2022 negative
Opinion
Friedberg: Musk suspending jet-tracking account shows deep hypocrisy
“I think it was a bad decision, and I think that it represented on the least generous statement would be that it represents deep hypocrisy in that not just a few weeks ago did he say he would never delete that account, but he also said he was buying Twitter to …”
David Friedberg Dec 16, 2022 ▶ 2:43 E108: Doxing debate, Nuclear fusion breakthrough, state of the markets & more
Dec 16, 2022 positive
Opinion
Sacks: Musk's free speech mission at Twitter is vital for humanity
“If you define what he's doing in the larger sense as restoring free speech to the most important town square social network, hopefully thereby inspiring other tech companies to move in the direction of opening things up, then I actually think it's a pretty goo…”
David Sacks Dec 16, 2022 ▶ 8:11 E108: Doxing debate, Nuclear fusion breakthrough, state of the markets & more
Dec 24, 2022
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Musk: Twitter hate speech impressions are down by a third
“Hate speech impressions are down by a third and will get even lower.”
Elon Musk Dec 24, 2022 ▶ 1:06:53 E109: 2022 Bestie Awards Live from Twitter HQ
Dec 24, 2022 bullish
Prediction Held up
Sacks: Twitter will issue blue checks and affiliation badges to more users
“So more and more people are going to get blue checks, and then people are going to have secondary or even tertiary badges that are basically specific to their affiliations.”
David Sacks Dec 24, 2022 ▶ 50:50 E109: 2022 Bestie Awards Live from Twitter HQ
Dec 24, 2022 negative
Assertion Supported
Sacks: Mastodon does not have nearly the distribution of Twitter
“And anybody who's thinking about going to like some knockoff like Mastodon or something is gonna have to contend with the fact that it doesn't have nearly the distribution.”
David Sacks Dec 24, 2022 ▶ 48:26 E109: 2022 Bestie Awards Live from Twitter HQ
Dec 24, 2022 negative
Assertion Supported
Sacks claims his tweets get 10-20x more reach than the NYT
“I didn't know that, but I just went over to the New York Times profile and my tweets are routinely getting 10 to 20 times more reach, more views than theirs.”
David Sacks Dec 24, 2022 ▶ 48:53 E109: 2022 Bestie Awards Live from Twitter HQ
Dec 24, 2022
Disclosure
Musk personally apologized to Paul Graham for his Twitter suspension
“The Paul Graham suspension was definitely a mistake, and I actually called Paul Graham to apologize personally for that one.”
Elon Musk Dec 24, 2022 ▶ 1:14:45 E109: 2022 Bestie Awards Live from Twitter HQ
Dec 24, 2022 neutral
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Friedberg: VCs and CEOs are adopting Musk's Twitter restructuring as a model
“Nearly every VC I speak with, every CEO, every board is looking to Elon's behavior for right or for wrong, for, you know, moral, moral or not, and saying that's a model for how you can challenge your team to achieve the impossible.”
David Friedberg Dec 24, 2022 ▶ 43:39 E109: 2022 Bestie Awards Live from Twitter HQ
Dec 24, 2022 negative
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Shellenberger: FBI constantly pushed legal boundaries requesting Twitter user info
“FBI was constantly pushing the boundaries of what is legally and ethically acceptable in terms of requesting information.”
Michael Shellenberger Dec 24, 2022 ▶ 1:25:11 E109: 2022 Bestie Awards Live from Twitter HQ
Dec 24, 2022 neutral
Assertion Supported
Shellenberger: Twitter found minimal foreign influence from FBI-flagged accounts
“You'll repeatedly, you'll Roth would respond to FBI that, yeah, we looked into these accounts that you mentioned, and they were all very low follower accounts with very little activity. So they just weren't finding very much foreign influence on the Twitter pl…”
Michael Shellenberger Dec 24, 2022 ▶ 1:30:04 E109: 2022 Bestie Awards Live from Twitter HQ
Dec 24, 2022 negative
Opinion
Friedberg: Elon Musk Suffered Major Reputational Damage From Buying Twitter
“I think his reputation has gotten really hurt because of, you know, that role. He's not making a lot of friends, and he's not, he's causing a lot of reputational damage.”
David Friedberg Dec 24, 2022 ▶ 2:11:15 E109: 2022 Bestie Awards Live from Twitter HQ
Dec 24, 2022 positive
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Musk: Twitter is no longer on track for bankruptcy
“The expense is reasonably under control. So the company's not like on the, in the fast lane of bankruptcy anymore. And we're releasing features faster than Twitter's history at the same time as having contained the costs and reduce the cost structure by a fact…”
Elon Musk Dec 24, 2022 ▶ 1:01:03 E109: 2022 Bestie Awards Live from Twitter HQ
Dec 24, 2022 negative
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Musk: Almost every conspiracy theory about Twitter turned out true
“Almost every conspiracy theory that people had about Twitter turned out to be true. So far, they've all turned out to be true, and if not, more true than people thought.”
Elon Musk Dec 24, 2022 ▶ 1:21:41 E109: 2022 Bestie Awards Live from Twitter HQ
Dec 24, 2022 negative
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Calacanis: Twitter management previously held back ready-to-ship features
“What we found over and over again was that there were great features that were ready to be released that were being held back by management. And there were brilliant people with all the ideas that you think should have been released. And they just weren't allo…”
Jason Calacanis Dec 24, 2022 ▶ 1:37:33 E109: 2022 Bestie Awards Live from Twitter HQ
Dec 24, 2022 neutral
Disclosure
Sacks denies being a candidate for the Twitter CEO role
“I am not a candidate for CEO of Twitter.”
David Sacks Dec 24, 2022 ▶ 46:13 E109: 2022 Bestie Awards Live from Twitter HQ
Dec 24, 2022
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Musk: Twitter view count feature requires 3 million transactions per second
“It sort of requires system-wide on the order of three, three million transactions a second to actually calculate the view, to, you know, calculate and display the view count, FYI, for Twitter, Twitter global.”
Elon Musk Dec 24, 2022 ▶ 1:00:05 E109: 2022 Bestie Awards Live from Twitter HQ
Dec 24, 2022
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Musk: Twitter maintains roughly 2,000 employees and 5,000 contractors
“We still have 2000 people. It's not nothing. And actually if you, there's actually on the order of like almost 5000 contractors.”
Elon Musk Dec 24, 2022 ▶ 1:06:26 E109: 2022 Bestie Awards Live from Twitter HQ
Dec 24, 2022 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Calacanis predicts shift to Twitter feature focus within 6 to 18 weeks
“I predict in another six to 18 weeks, we will see people talking about all the great features in Twitter, not any of the transitional issues, and people will be shocked.”
Jason Calacanis Dec 24, 2022 ▶ 47:41 E109: 2022 Bestie Awards Live from Twitter HQ
Jan 13, 2023 neutral
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Calacanis: AI could let tech companies run with 98% fewer employees in 3-5 years
“We can be sitting here in three or four or five years, and instead of running a company like Twitter with 80% less people, maybe you could run it with 98% less people.”
Jason Calacanis Jan 13, 2023 ▶ 1:03:50 E111: Microsoft to invest $10B in OpenAI, generative AI hype, America's over-classification problem
Jan 27, 2023 negative
Assertion Contradicted
Sacks claims YouTube removed the viral Pfizer CEO Davos clip
“YouTube banned that video. We had to watch it on Twitter because Elon Musk's Twitter is still free.”
David Sacks Jan 27, 2023 ▶ 42:16 E113: DOJ tries to break up Google, vaccine questions, Ukraine escalation & more
Feb 4, 2023 negative
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Sacks: Over 50% of Twitter engineers hadn't checked in code in months
“The first question he asked in the engineering department is who's checked in code. And they looked at the code repository and over 50% of the engineering department had not checked in code in months.”
David Sacks Feb 4, 2023 ▶ 29:42 E114: Markets update: whipsaw macro picture, big tech, startup mass extinction event, VC reckoning
Feb 17, 2023
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Calacanis: Americans check social platforms before trusting The New York Times
“Now it's become, I think, where a lot of Americans are by default saying, let me read the tick, let me read the substacks, TikToks, and Twitter before I trust the New York Times.”
Jason Calacanis Feb 17, 2023 ▶ 16:12 E116: Toxic out-of-control trains, regulators, and AI
Apr 14, 2023 positive
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Calacanis: Twitter deliberately removes hate speech from 'For You' feed
“They, they've been pretty deliberate of removing hate speech from places like For You”
Jason Calacanis Apr 14, 2023 ▶ 1:27:03 E124: AutoGPT's massive potential and risk, AI regulation, Bob Lee/SF update
May 19, 2023 positive
Assertion Supported
Chamath: Elon Musk leads companies with female top executives across Tesla, Twitter, SpaceX
“He has a female chairman at Tesla, a female CEO at Twitter, and a female president at SpaceX.”
Chamath Palihapitiya May 19, 2023 ▶ 46:35 E129: Sam Altman plays chess with regulators, AI's "nuclear" potential, big pharma bundling & more
May 19, 2023 neutral
Assertion Supported
Calacanis: Linda Yaccarino will run Twitter except product and CTO
“She's gonna take over everything but product and CTO. Elon's gonna stick with that.”
Jason Calacanis May 19, 2023 ▶ 43:48 E129: Sam Altman plays chess with regulators, AI's "nuclear" potential, big pharma bundling & more
May 26, 2023 neutral
Assertion Supported
Calacanis: Twitter sent a legal notice to Microsoft
“It's turns out Twitter sent a letter over to Microsoft as well.”
Jason Calacanis May 26, 2023 ▶ 1:07:23 E130: DeSantis's Twitter Spaces, debt ceiling, Nvidia rips, state of VC, startup failure & more
Jun 16, 2023 neutral
Disclosure
Chamath Palihapitiya says he keeps no social media apps on his phone
“I brought my phone, but I don't have anything on my phone. Like I don't have Twitter. I don't have any of that stuff.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Jun 16, 2023 ▶ 4:00 E133: Market melt-up, IPO update, AI startups overheat, Reddit revolts & more with Brad Gerstner
Jun 16, 2023 neutral
Insight
David Friedberg says user-generated networks gain no structural value from third-party apps
“That works well in some contexts, like an Apple app store context, but in the context where there is a network unto itself, like Facebook, Twitter, and Reddit, meaning that there is already a user network that is generating value in the form of the content tha…”
David Friedberg Jun 16, 2023 ▶ 1:07:53 E133: Market melt-up, IPO update, AI startups overheat, Reddit revolts & more with Brad Gerstner
Jun 24, 2023 positive
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Gerstner says Twitter cut up to 80 percent of its headcount
“75, 80% of the people gone and product velocity is on fire at Twitter.”
Brad Gerstner Jun 24, 2023 ▶ 14:30 E134: Ukraine counteroffensive, China tensions, COVID Patient Zero, RFK Jr reaction & more
Jun 24, 2023 neutral
Disclosure
Chamath admits his controversial tweets are just non-serious trolling
“Bro, I'm just trolling the mids. Just don't worry. This is all bullshit. It's all just for shits and giggles. I do it. I do it when I'm either pooing or I haven't jet lagged.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Jun 24, 2023 ▶ 1:30:41 E134: Ukraine counteroffensive, China tensions, COVID Patient Zero, RFK Jr reaction & more
Jul 9, 2023 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Chamath: Users quitting Twitter over Elon Musk will eventually return
“Rage quitting Twitter because you're not a fan of the product right now or Elon isn't a successful long-term use case because all of those people will eventually come back.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Jul 9, 2023 ▶ 11:01 E136: Hacking the pod, Threads launches, Fed minutes, immigration, balloon farce, heart health
Sep 8, 2023 negative
Assertion Partly supported
Sacks: Twitter Files showed 80 FBI agents monitored social media accounts
“One of the revelations that came out during the Twitter files is that we had 80 FBI agents monitoring Americans' social media accounts and submitting takedown requests to Twitter.”
David Sacks Sep 8, 2023 ▶ 1:13:02 In conversation with Chris Christie
Sep 13, 2023 negative
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Musk: Old Twitter suppressed right-wing voices at 10x the rate of left-wing voices
“You know, the suspensions of Candidates, or interests, or voices, was really at least 10 times the rate of suppression of left-wing voices on, you know, on old Twitter.”
Elon Musk Sep 13, 2023 ▶ 17:37 Elon Musk: Ukraine, X, the creator economy, China, AI, & more | All-In Summit 2023
Sep 13, 2023 positive
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Musk: X achieved rapid feature velocity with 15% to 20% of original staff
“This has been done with really about 15% of the original company. Maybe a little more, 15, 20%.”
Elon Musk Sep 13, 2023 ▶ 20:06 Elon Musk: Ukraine, X, the creator economy, China, AI, & more | All-In Summit 2023
Dec 16, 2023 negative
Assertion Supported
Sacks: Twitter Files showed 80 FBI agents sending platform takedown requests
“Once that censorship power was created, It attracted powerful entities from our government who wanted to co-opt and use that power. That's what we saw in the Twitter files with the 80 FBI agents sending takedown requests.”
David Sacks Dec 16, 2023 ▶ 1:05:52 E157: Epic legal win, OpenAI's news deal, FCC targets Elon, the limits of free speech & more
Dec 16, 2023 neutral
Assertion Supported
Sacks: Alex Jones's final Twitter ban strike was for insulting a reporter
“And the third strike he received that That caused him to be banned from the Twitter platform by the former management was he actually insulted a reporter, which was a very borderline case.”
David Sacks Dec 16, 2023 ▶ 1:10:40 E157: Epic legal win, OpenAI's news deal, FCC targets Elon, the limits of free speech & more
Feb 2, 2024 positive
Opinion
Sacks: Grok's main advantage is exclusive access to Twitter data
“Grok's whole competitive advantage is having exclusive access to Twitter's. Data, which is updated in real time, basically by hundreds of millions of users.”
David Sacks Feb 2, 2024 ▶ 1:12:33 E164: Zuck’s Senate apology, Elon's comp package voided, crony capitalism, Reddit IPO, drone attack
Feb 23, 2024
Assertion Supported
Sacks: Elon Musk fired 85 percent of Twitter's workforce after acquisition
“I saw what Elon did at Twitter. He went in and he fired 85% of the employees.”
David Sacks Feb 23, 2024 ▶ 1:03:55 E167: Google's Woke AI disaster, Nvidia smashes earnings (again), Groq's LPU breakthrough & more
Mar 16, 2024 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Friedberg: A US TikTok ban will significantly benefit Meta, Instagram, and X
“If TikTok gets banned in the US, it's going to benefit Meta. It's going to benefit Instagram. It's going to benefit a few other, you know, social networks. It's going to benefit Elon at Twitter. There's a few folks that are going to benefit pretty significantl…”
David Friedberg Mar 16, 2024 ▶ 56:30 E170: Tech's Vibe Shift, TikTok ban debate, Vertical AI boom, Florida bans lab-grown meat & more
Apr 5, 2024 negative
Assertion Supported
Sacks: Twitter executives knew Hamilton 68 tracked American, not Russian, accounts
“Hamilton's 68 claimed that it was tracking 500 Russian accounts on social media Who were engaged in manipulation of online discourse? Well, as it turns out, executives inside of Twitter knew who these accounts were, and they were just American accounts, some C…”
David Sacks Apr 5, 2024 ▶ 23:32 E173: Google buying HubSpot? FTX depositors not made whole, AI job fears, Ukraine joining NATO
May 17, 2024 negative
Disclosure
Calacanis passed on early Twitter investment at single-digit million valuation
“I had the opportunity to invest in Twitter when it was like a single digit millions company. And I just thought, you know what? This thing is only like the headline. And I told that like, it's the headline. It's not like the entire blog post. It's going to be …”
Jason Calacanis May 17, 2024 ▶ 1:11:51 GPT-4o launches, Glue demo, Ohalo breakthrough, Druck's Argentina bet, did Google kill Perplexity?
Jul 10, 2024 negative
Opinion
Calacanis: TikTok's black-box AI algorithm is more pernicious than earlier gamified social media
“So you had the gamification of Twitter and Facebook, which was likes. Retweets, follower count, Instagram, and then now it's transitioned into something even more pernicious, which is some black box on, in TikTok knows this is going to maximize the dopamine hi…”
Jason Calacanis Jul 10, 2024 ▶ 7:17 Jonathan Haidt: How to Help the Anxious Generation | The All-In Interview
Jul 19, 2024 neutral
What-if
Sacks: Twitter could not restore free speech without firing staff
“Imagine if Elon had bought Twitter, but he wasn't allowed to fire anybody. Do you think he would have been able to restore free speech? Do you think he'd be able to restore innovation? No.”
David Sacks Jul 19, 2024 ▶ 34:20 Trump assassination attempt, Secret Service failure, Inside the RNC, VC liquidity problem
Aug 9, 2024 negative
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Friedberg: Strong push coming to curb power of Meta, X, and Google
“I think that because of how inflamed people are at the influence that these companies have meta and Twitter and Google, there is going to be a strong push to do a lot more than what the narrow focus of the ruling in this particular case to do something much mo…”
David Friedberg Aug 9, 2024 ▶ 1:19:36 Yen Carry Trade, Recession odds grow, Buffett cash pile, Google ruled monopoly, Kamala picks Walz
Nov 6, 2024 positive
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Don Jr.: Elon Musk cut 80% of Twitter staff and it ran better
“I mean, Elon did that with Twitter when he took it over, he cut 80% of the workforce and it functioned better.”
Donald Trump Jr. Nov 6, 2024 ▶ 9:45 2024 Election Night Livestream with the Besties!
Nov 8, 2024 negative
Assertion Supported
Sacks: FBI used 'Teleport' tool to transmit instructions to Twitter
“The FBI had their own tool called teleport, which would allow them to transmit secret instructions to the trust and safety team at Twitter.”
David Sacks Nov 8, 2024 ▶ 1:16:31 Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
Dec 20, 2024 negative
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Calacanis: Some Twitter engineers had not committed code in six months pre-acquisition
“When we went into Twitter, nobody was coming to the office. There were people who hadn't committed, who hadn't come to the office, who hadn't committed code in six months.”
Jason Calacanis Dec 20, 2024 ▶ 47:28 DOGE kills its first bill, Zuck vs OpenAI, Google's AI comeback
Jan 11, 2025 positive
Opinion
Chamath: Elon Musk bought Twitter out of moral conviction, not shareholder value
“Elon didn't make a value maximizing function. He made a moral decision. He did it when it was unpopular and where the winds were clearly blowing in the opposite direction.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Jan 11, 2025 ▶ 1:05:48 LA's Wildfire Disaster, Zuck Flips on Free Speech, Why Trump Wants Greenland
Jan 18, 2025
Disclosure
Mark Pincus co-funded Friendster and invested in early Facebook and Twitter rounds
“Yeah, Reed and I put up the first money for Friendster. And then we were lucky enough to invest along with Peter in the first round of Facebook. The first on Twitter, so.”
Mark Pincus Jan 18, 2025 ▶ 4:48 Red-pilled Billionaires, LA Fire Update, Newsom's Price Caps, TikTok Ban, Jobless MBAs
Feb 7, 2025 neutral
Assertion Supported
Gracias: Twitter cut 80% of full-time staff following acquisition
“80% of the people gone. That doesn't include all the contractors that were there.”
Antonio Gracias Feb 7, 2025 ▶ 6:27 DOGE vs USAID, Crypto Framework, Google's $75B AI Spend, US Sovereign Wealth Fund, GLP-1s
Feb 7, 2025 bullish
Opinion
Gracias calls Twitter restructuring the biggest corporate turnaround in history
“It's literally the biggest turnaround, I think, ever in history.”
Antonio Gracias Feb 7, 2025 ▶ 6:22 DOGE vs USAID, Crypto Framework, Google's $75B AI Spend, US Sovereign Wealth Fund, GLP-1s
Feb 7, 2025 negative
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Calacanis: Twitter's SF cafeteria cost $800 per meal prior to acquisition
“20 people were having lunch a day, but they had never ratcheted down the amount of food they were making, so each meal was about 800 dollars on average when you did the math for those 20 meals just in the San Francisco office.”
Jason Calacanis Feb 7, 2025 ▶ 20:08 DOGE vs USAID, Crypto Framework, Google's $75B AI Spend, US Sovereign Wealth Fund, GLP-1s
May 21, 2025 negative
Opinion
Gracias: Government complexity makes Twitter overhaul look like JV league
“So if Twitter was like the JV league, this is like the NBA. It's the most complex thing I've ever seen. I have in, ah, our office in DC, I have a, I've mapped now, as an example, the entire system of, like, basically from the border to the benefits programs. I…”
Antonio Gracias May 21, 2025 ▶ 2:30 Antonio Gracias: DOGE updates, Voter fraud, Finding 'Big Balls' | All-In Live from Miami
Aug 21, 2025 negative
Assertion Supported
Sacks: Pre-acquisition Twitter admin tools had checkboxes to shadowban accounts
“So anyway, he calls, and basically what he told me was that all the conspiracy theories are true, that we've now gone into the admin tools that the trust and safety team was using, and they literally have check boxes to throttle accounts based on, exclude them…”
David Sacks Aug 21, 2025 ▶ 14:40 Senator Eric Schmitt: Exposing the Biggest Censorship Scandal in US History
Oct 31, 2025 negative
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Musk: Pre-acquisition Twitter paid millions for pedestrian tracking in empty offices
“There was millions of dollars a year being paid for, yes, but for analysis of pedestrian, like software that used cameras to analyze the pedestrian traffic to figure out where you can alleviate pedestrian traffic jams in an empty building.”
Elon Musk Oct 31, 2025 ▶ 32:21 Elon Musk: OpenAI Betrayal, His Future at Tesla, and the Next Big Thing — Grokipedia
Oct 31, 2025 positive
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Musk: Other social platforms reduced censorship after Twitter changed policy
“Once Twitter broke ranks, the others had to it became very obvious what the others were doing. And so they had to mitigate their censorship substantially as because of what Twitter did.”
Elon Musk Oct 31, 2025 ▶ 39:35 Elon Musk: OpenAI Betrayal, His Future at Tesla, and the Next Big Thing — Grokipedia
Oct 31, 2025 negative
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Calacanis claims Twitter paid for unused SaaS software for two years
“There was a list of SaaS software we went through, and none of it was being used. Some of it had never been installed, and they had been paying for it for two years.”
Jason Calacanis Oct 31, 2025 ▶ 31:51 Elon Musk: OpenAI Betrayal, His Future at Tesla, and the Next Big Thing — Grokipedia
Oct 31, 2025 negative
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Musk claims Twitter's effective cafeteria lunch cost was $400 per meal
“In this giant cafeteria, you know, this is where we discovered that the actual price of the lunch was 400 dollars.”
Elon Musk Oct 31, 2025 ▶ 27:20 Elon Musk: OpenAI Betrayal, His Future at Tesla, and the Next Big Thing — Grokipedia
Dec 24, 2025 positive
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Sacks: Elon Musk buying Twitter first shifted momentum against censorship
“And then, frankly, Elon bought Twitter, and that was the first event that shifted the momentum.”
David Sacks Dec 24, 2025 ▶ 34:17 All-In x Kill Tony: A Hilarious Holiday Special
Jan 22, 2026 negative
Assertion Partly supported
Rogers: Leaked emails show NGO's top priority was killing Musk's X
“We have emails that have leaked from some of these NGOs. So one of them, the Center for Countering Digital Hate, Which is a British NGO whose leader was the target of some of our visa sanctions. There are emails exchanged with Democratic politicians in the Uni…”
Sarah B. Rogers Jan 22, 2026 ▶ 35:26 Europe's Free Speech Failure and the "Censorship Industrial Complex" with Sarah B. Rogers
Jan 24, 2026 negative
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Calacanis: Twitter was paying for software subscriptions that were never used
“And, so we sit there and we're like, yeah, cancel the cards. Immediately, I get three back channels from software companies who are like, hey I know you're helping Elon. I saw a story in the New York Times. Our bill stopped getting paid. Can we come in? And I'…”
Jason Calacanis Jan 24, 2026 ▶ 47:05 Dr. Mehmet Oz on Fixing American Healthcare + Fraud | Live from Davos
Jun 29, 2026 positive
Opinion
Nate Silver: Claude and ChatGPT are less polarizing than Twitter or Bluesky
“Claude or ChatGPT is probably less polarizing than Blue Sky or Twitter.”
Nate Silver Jun 29, 2026 ▶ 45:27 Nate Silver Predicts: Democrats Take the House, Newsom Is Fading, President AOC?!
Jun 29, 2026 neutral
Assertion Supported
Nate Silver: 80% of voters agreed Joe Biden was too old
“Saying, Biden is obviously too old, Democrats, you're gonna lose unless you replace him. Like, that, even though it's a stance that, like, literally 80% of voters agreed with, will make you, like, seem like a heretic on Twitter.”
Nate Silver Jun 29, 2026 ▶ 46:49 Nate Silver Predicts: Democrats Take the House, Newsom Is Fading, President AOC?!
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