The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 29 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 1 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Palihapitiya declares DraftKings and FanDuel are 'toast' due to Polymarket
“You can see, by the way that DraftKings and FanDuel stock have reacted to this, those companies are toast.”
Friedberg: AI models will eventually gain legal privilege and professional certification
“And it sounds crazy today, but I guarantee if you put it on Polymarket, there will be a date when this happens.”
Coplan: Prediction markets offer a 10x improvement and will displace polling
“And it's like, the reality is after today, if things continue to trend in the direction that they're trending, like the idea of trusting an individual pollster and taking their word for it is now antiquated technology. Like Polymarket has arrived. It has prove…”
Friedberg: Polymarket will be the best performing asset of 2026
“Polymarket. Polymarket's on a tear. Network effects. Replacing media. Replacing markets.”
Friedberg argues Polymarket surfaces real-world news faster than mainstream media
“Polymarket actually has the news before the news does. And this is one of the most, like, powerful outputs of polymarket, is they're actually getting a read on what's going on in the world before the media recognizes it, before the public recognizes it.”
Hellmuth: Shayne Coplan created Polymarket after a bet involving David Friedberg
“Shane came up with the idea of starting Polymarket because of a bet that Friedberg had with Diego.”
Kalanick uses AI agents to autonomously bet on Kalshi and Polymarket
“I've got a side quest where I'm just investing. I have agents investing and betting on Kalshi and Polly and, you know, these other places. And it's silly how dumb the agents are, even their best agents, to be honest.”
Calacanis: Polymarket gives 57% odds of US forces entering Iran
“Polymarket. 27% chance that U.S. Forces Enter Iran by the end of March and 57% by the end of the year.”
Sacks: Odds of Trump acquiring Greenland are higher than 17%
“And I think the odds of him pulling this off are much greater than 17%.”
Calacanis: Retail gambling and prediction market platforms will be 2026's top asset
“My pick for best performing asset will be the Robinhood Polymarket prize picks, gambling, wagering space because people will be able to have a little cash around to make some bets. You could buy Coinbase in there too, I guess.”
Friedberg argues Polymarket's dynamic pricing model creates fairer gambling odds
“The poly market model is the best model because it creates a market, and so as information flows in, that market will dynamically adjust and everyone will get a more fair price.”
Palihapitiya claims Polymarket accuracy reaches 95% in final hours before events
“Basically, 89% accurate one week out, but in the final four hours, it jumps to 95, which means that if you follow the sharps along this pattern, you're going to make money.”
Coplan: Polymarket hit all-time high volume of hundreds of millions on Election Day
“I mean, today I think A couple hundred million dollars which is, you know, a lot by, I guess when you think about leveraged assets, it doesn't seem like a lot, but for prediction markets, it's probably an all time high, I guess, in history.”
Hellmuth passed on buying 4 percent of Polymarket for $30,000
“All I did was send in my 30,000 and I would have had four percent.”
Coplan claims Polymarket holds over 90 percent of global prediction market share
“So the thing about Polymarket is that it's like, it's the, in terms of global market share, it's like 90 something percent of the global market.”
Friedberg: French trader bet $45M on Donald Trump on Polymarket
“It was reported this morning that a French trader has bet forty-five million dollars on Trump on Polymarket, that he is the whale.”
Palihapitiya: Polymarket odds place Elon Musk's chance of winning at 42-43%
“It's effectively at 42 or 43% that Elon wins.”
Calacanis claims ICE invested $2B into Polymarket at $9B valuation
“ICE, a different ICE, Intercontinental Exchange, had invested two billion at a nine billion dollar post or somewhere in that range.”
Friedberg: Polymarket shows 84% chance DOGE cuts under $50B in 2025
“Poly market showing an 84% chance of less than fifty billion being cut in 2025.”
Friedberg: Created a Polymarket bet on Q3 US GDP falling below -5%
“I created a poly market on GDP. Annualized GDP growth in Q three of this year being below five, negative five percent.”
Friedberg: Polymarket accurately predicted cabinet confirmation outcomes weeks in advance
“By the way, if you look at Polymarket, Polymarket had it all right a couple of weeks ago.”
Sacks: Trump regained lead over Harris on Polymarket in August 2024
“If you look at polymarket, that is, has swung back to Trump being in the lead over the past week, as opposed to Harris.”
Calacanis: OpenAI's Polymarket odds for 2026 best model spiked above 20%
“The ratings here from Polymarket, which company has the best AI model, by the end of twenty-twenty-six, OpenAI's chances just spiked from low single digits now to over 20%.”
Calacanis: Polymarket gives 99% odds May inflation exceeds 4.2%
“Polymarket says, 99% chance May inflation comes in at 4.2% or higher.”
Calacanis: Alan Keating was a seed investor in Polymarket
“He was the seed investor in a little company known as Polymarket”
Calacanis: Polymarket odds for Kimmel cancellation dropped from 80% to 1%
“Nexar and Sinclair's affiliates, they decided to not air it, and that was 60% of the market, so interesting, polymarket. Had Jimmy Kimmel canceled by September 30th. It was nearly 80% after Kimmel was suspended last week, but that's plummeted to one percent si…”
Calacanis: Cuomo held 93% Polymarket odds versus Mamdani's 6% last month
“One month ago, Cuomo was at 93%. Zoran had a six percent chance.”
Calacanis: $653M in political bets are placed across top prediction markets
“Six hundred and fifty three million dollars in political bets are currently being placed across the top 10 betting markets and all of the markets on polymarket, which includes things outside of politics are three hundred twenty million.”