The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 35 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 4 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Musk: Would have activated Starlink in Crimea if requested by Biden
“If I had received a presidential directive to turn it on, I would have done so, because I do regard the president as the chief executive officer of the country, whether I want that position If I'm not, I still respect the office, and so, if, you know, if we've…”
Musk: Starlink coverage in Crimea was disabled due to US sanctions
“At the time this happened, the region around, you Crimea was actually turned off. Now, the reason it was turned off was, actually, originally, was because the United States had sanctions and we're not allowed to actually, and that includes Crimea in the sancti…”
Machado: Opposition smuggled Starlink terminals into Venezuela to prove election win
“We smudled Starlink and antennas into the country, generators, Laptops, cell phones, and without the regime noticing it, we installed these a 130 operational places, and in less than 24 hours, we were able to prove our victory with the, you know, the images, o…”
Friedberg: Starlink alone could reach a $1T valuation within 18 months
“The Starlink business alone could be a trillion dollar market cap within two years, within 18 months, let's say.”
Friedberg: Starlink could generate $30B in annual free cash flow within a year
“Starlink alone could be generating on the order of forty billion dollars of revenue top line with a huge amount of that flowing to free cash. That could be a thirty billion dollar free cash flow within the year.”
Calacanis: Every Tesla sold will include built-in Starlink connectivity
“So the piece there that's going to be explained probably in the next year or two is every single Tesla sold is going to have Starlink in it when they get that merger done. What that means is you're going to have wifi networks connecting any phone. To any Tesla…”
Laffont: Starlink will enable worldwide satellite phone calls within a few years
“I believe that within a few years, Starlink will power a device which will actually enable you to make a phone call anywhere in the world.”
Calacanis: Distributed compute in Tesla Powerwalls is the next AI move
“The Powerwall with compute in it, it's already online, right? And Starlink also gives them the ability to do distributed compute to people's homes. Again, you could be paying people to put Powerwalls with compute in it. That's going to be the next shoe to drop…”
Sacks: FCC revoked $885M Starlink award claiming insufficient internet speed
“In 2023, The FCC canceled or revoked an eight hundred eighty-five million dollar contract with the company by claiming Starlink is not capable of providing high-speed internet.”
Chamath: Starlink will go public in 2024
“I'm gonna go with the same thing. I think I was just off by your Starlink will go public.”
Chamath: Only Starlink and Stripe can reopen tech startup IPO markets
“There are only two companies that can structurally open the capital markets for all startups. One is SpaceX Starlink, but that's on its own path, and not going public soon. And the other is Stripe.”
Musk: Starlink is the only communications network working on Ukrainian front lines
“Starlink is the fundamental communication backbone of the Ukrainian government and essential services, like first responders and that kind of thing. And, you know, it's used, we hope peacefully, relatively peacefully on the war front. It is the only thing that…”
Chamath predicts a Starlink IPO is the only way to catalyze markets
“I think the only company that can really catalyze things would be if people were ready to do Starlink.”
Chamath predicts Starlink will IPO in 2023 at a $75B+ valuation
“Starlink will go public. Oh, SpaceX will cut and paste the cap table. And we will take that. Yum. Yum. It'll be yummy and delicious. And my prediction is that the Starlink valuation will be at least half of SpaceX's current private mark.”
Gracias: Starlink will deliver very high margins and strong ROIC
“So it's like in building Starlink, same thing, capital going in, but we know that the margins and the profitability of that business on the back end will be very, very high, and so the ROIC will be very good.”
Friedberg: SpaceX has largely built a backup internet through Starlink
“So in space, with the number of satellites going up with Starlink, and to actually deploy data centers that can output data on those nodes on that network, SpaceX has largely built a backup internet.”
Chamath: Satellite information warfare tactics will define every future conflict
“That is the generation of Warfare and information that we are going to see in every conflict going forward, especially when you have something as ubiquitous as Starlink and other things in the sky to help you get the information out.”
Palihapitiya: SpaceX uses stablecoins to collect global Starlink payments
“The point is that a lot of companies that you would never think, so for example, SpaceX uses these stable coins.”
Friedberg: Starlink could reach 100 million subscribers with satellite-to-phone
“If we can get satellite to phone and you can get Starlink more broadly available, this could be a hundred million subscriber business. I mean, this could be one of the biggest businesses on the earth.”
Sacks: Starlink is the only company capable of satellite rural broadband today
“Starlink is the only company that has that capability today. It's the only one that has that capability.”
Musk: Starlink revenue will enable a permanent moon base
“The revenue generated from Starlink is what can enable the of a permanently crewed base on the moon, which will be the next, you know, next step from Apollo”
Sachs: Starlink is faster than fixed broadband in seven major countries
“Now it's reported that Starlink is faster than the fixed broadband average in Belgium, Canada, Australia, Germany, the UK, New Zealand, and France.”
Chamath: Starlink and Tesla Bot will become real, viable products
“And so, you know, for whatever it's worth, it's like, I think Starlink's going to be a real thing. I think this is probably going to be a real thing.”
Sacks: Elon Musk's Starlink will disrupt traditional telecom companies
“What Elon is doing with Starlink is going to disrupt them.”
Friedberg: Direct-to-cell Starlink could double quarterly subscriber additions to 4M-5M
“And if he launches the handset thing, that subscriber growth is going to go, right now he's adding two million subscribers on the consumer side a quarter. You could see that going to four to five million a quarter.”
Friedberg breaks down Starlink Q2: $4.3B revenue, $2.6B EBITDA, 12M subscribers
“But the connectivity piece on Starlink, 4.3 billion in the quarter, and 2.6 billion in adjusted EBITDA. He's got twelve million subscribers. That's doubled year over year. 66 dollar ARPU per month what people are paying per month. And he grew 20% quarter over …”
Calacanis: Starlink generated $11.4B in revenue and $4.4B in operating income
“Starlink did 11.4 billion in revenue last year on 50% growth with 4.4 billion in operating income.”
Calacanis: Rural consumers will buy Starlink individually despite lost subsidies
“All of those people who just had their Starlink canceled through the government, I guarantee you, they will buy Starlink because it's the best product.”
Musk: Starlink latency can be under 20 milliseconds
“Because unlike the geosynchronous satellites, the latency is, you know, really can be less than 20 milliseconds.”
Musk: In-flight Starlink will outperform home internet for some users
“So it's it, in fact, for a lot of, I think for some people, the Starlink connection on the plane will be better than their connection at their house.”
David Sacks predicts Starlink will be a phenomenal business
“And I think Starlink's going to be A phenomenal business.”
Calacanis: Starlink enterprise internet backup business could become ginormous
“So I could see many companies putting in Starlink, even if they have a fiber line or whatever, just as a backup, that business alone could be ginormous.”
Sacks: Starship launches will add over 20x more Starlink bandwidth
“So basically, SpaceX has developed a new V-III satellite that has 10 X the bandwidth of its V-II satellite. So currently the Starlink network is powered by V-II satellites They deploy them on the Falcon nine rocket, and they launch about 27 satellites per laun…”