The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 11 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Palihapitiya: Medicare price caps will force pharma to replace scientists with AI
“If CMS and Medicare go and really crunch those costs, what is pharma going to do? Well, pharma is going to do what is the obvious thing, which is like, if you're going to cap what I can make, I have to completely change my R and D model. And they're just going…”
Friedberg: 50 protein-folding startups will be funded in 12-18 months
“I think we're within, within one year, J. Cal, of a lot of startups replicating this alpha fold technique, and then using that to go do drug discovery, and you'll see 50 startups getting funded 12 to 18 months from now based on some novel protein idea.”
Friedberg predicts competitors will replicate DeepMind's AlphaFold within 24 months
“It's an inevitability that in the next couple of 24 months, someone else will replicate this.”
Chamath: Meta's recent protein-folding AI model is not that good
“I mean, Facebook released this kind of like rando version of alpha fold recently. It's not that good.”
Friedberg: AlphaFold is biology's ARPANET moment that will transform medicine
“AlphaFold feels to me like what ARPANET was, which was the origins of the internet, you know back when it was first installed, and no one really Kind of grappled with the ramifications of what would emerge. And I think, you know, once we have the ability to de…”
Friedberg: AlphaFold will significantly extend human lifespan through drug discovery
“And the output of that is going to be an incredible new tool for drug discovery that is going to extend human lifespan in an incredible way.”
Friedberg: AlphaFold accuracy matches experimental microscopic measurement precision
“And the accuracy of their predictive model now is within the range of error of the microscopes that are being used to actually scan and measure those proteins.”
Hassabis: AlphaFold is a hybrid model incorporating physics and chemistry rules
“So AlphaFold itself is a hybrid model where you have the learning component, this probabilistic component you're talking about, which is, you know, based on neural networks and transformers and things, and that's learning from the data you give it you know, an…”
Friedberg: DeepMind's protein modeling led to dozens of startups and billions invested
“And there have been literally dozens of companies that have been started since DeepMind was published, and probably several billion dollars of capital that's gone into companies that are creating new drugs, creating new industrial biotech applications, using t…”
Friedberg: AlphaFold solving nuclear pore structure unlocks huge therapeutic opportunities
“This is an incredible example of how AlphaFold's been used to solve this really misunderstood or never really well understood aspect of biology that is at the root cause of so much of disease and creates all this opportunity for medicine and therapeutics, rese…”
Friedberg: Harvard study combined X-ray imaging and AlphaFold to map nuclear pore complex
“What this team at Harvard did that they published two weeks ago is a really groundbreaking, extremely detailed view of the entire nuclear comp, nuclear pore complex, Around the nucleus of the cell by combining both x-ray imaging and alpha fold.”