why aren't all 19 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 1 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Disclosure
Druckenmiller bought five Argentine ADRs after using Perplexity AI search
“I wasn't at Davos, but I saw the speech in Davos, and it was about one o'clock in the afternoon in my office. I dialed up perplexity, and I said, give me the five most liquid ADRs in Argentina. It gave me enough of a description That I followed the old Soros r…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Sacks: Perplexity is screwed unless acquired after Google copied AI citations
“I think they're kind of screwed now, unless they get an acquisition deal.”
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Palihapitiya: Google market cap will drop 50% if search share drops 1%
“If you see perplexity or anybody else clip off 50 basis points or a hundred basis points of share in search. This thing is going straight down by 50%.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Srinivas: Perplexity has positive gross margins on all revenue
“Our one thing that perplexity has is every revenue we make, unlike certain other wrapper companies, every revenue perplexity makes has positive gross margins.”
Insight
Srinivas: Big Tech AI labs cannot aggregate rival models without admitting failure
“It makes no sense for them. It would be an admission that all the data centers in CapEx they've built out still couldn't produce them the best model.”
Prediction Open · timeframe Dec 2026
Calacanis: Big Tech will make a $50B+ AI acquisition in 2026
“For twenty-twenty-six, I think we're going to see some massive M&A. It doesn't matter to me how it occurs, but I do think we're going to see a fifty billion plus deal, and I think it could be, ah, one of the Mac seven, an Apple, a Meta, a Microsoft, or an Amaz…”
Opinion
Chamath: Perplexity's path to a legacy business is replacing Bloomberg
“Specifically for perplexity, I think their path to building a legacy business is to replace Bloomberg.”
Assertion Supported
Sacks: Perplexity removed political censorship from Chinese open-source AI models
“Perplexity did this very early on with Chinese models. They showed that you could sort of put back the content on Tiananmen Square and things like that.”
Disclosure
Srinivas: Perplexity is developing local AI integration for private data orchestration
“So we know something called personal computer perplexity, personal computer. That's essentially going to take all the trust and reliability and the server side execution of perplexity computer, but synchronize it with your local computer so that you can use it…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Srinivas: Perplexity staff message AI agent on Slack more than colleagues
“And our entire company works like that. People are talking more to computer on Slack than other people.”
Insight
Srinivas: Value accrues to orchestration harnesses as AI models specialize
“So the, when models are kind of specializing, the, there's a bigger value in the one who knows how to build a great harness. That can take the best in each model.”
Disclosure
Srinivas: Non-engineers at Perplexity AI ship code using Slack AI bots
“Even non-engineers are shipping code here by just pinging a slack bot and asking it to fix bugs.”
Opinion
Chamath: Building a new web browser in 2025 is a stupid investment
“Look, I think building a browser is an absolutely stupid capital allocation decision. Just totally stupid and unjustifiable in 2025.”
Assertion Supported
Sacks: Emil Michael's Perplexity stake was approved by Government Ethics
“As I understand it, Emile's ownership of shares in that company was blessed by the Office of Government Ethics.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Calacanis: Perplexity could be a great company without its own model
“I think Perplexity is like, could be a really great company as well, even without a language model.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Srinivas: Enterprise is Perplexity's fastest-growing revenue segment
“It's the fastest growing business for us. It's growing faster than the consumer and revenue”
Prediction Held up
Calacanis: Google will roll out AI Overviews to most users by end of 2024
“Basically it's perplexity for most users by the end of the year, they're going to have this.”
Assertion Supported
Srinivas: Perplexity Model Council synthesizes agreement and nuances across models
“So the Model Council is a feature we built where it will not just give you the answers of each model, but it will tell you exactly where they agree, where they disagree, and where the nuances are.”
Assertion Supported
Perplexity CEO: Perplexity Computer is available as an enterprise Slack bot
“Computer exists as a Slack bot right now. That you can add to your Slack workspace on the enterprise plan.”