StarZero All shows Try the podcast clipper →

SpaceX

includes SpaceX Starship, SpaceX Dragon, SpaceX Crew 6, SpaceX Raptor, SpaceX Crew 1, SpaceX CRS 28, SpaceX Cargo Dragon, SpaceX Crew Dragon, SpaceX Crew 5, SpaceX Starlink, SpaceX Dragon Spacecraft

107 statements across 52 episodes · 77 bullish · 16 bearish · 19 people on the record · first statement Mar 20, 2021 by Chamath Palihapitiya · said 533 times in 116 episodes since 2020 · across every show →

Mentions by year, the whole family

brought up most by Jason Calacanis (200), Chamath Palihapitiya (74), David Friedberg (73), Elon Musk (28), David Sacks (26), Brad Gerstner (20), Thomas Laffont (13), Gavin Baker (13)

tap a year for its mentions
0012520250402020202120222023202420252026episodesmentions
020402020202120222023202420252026episodes it came up in
004208402020202120222023202420252026episodesmentions per episode
2026 242 mentions in 34 episodes 7 per episode
2025 94 mentions in 25 episodes 4 per episode
2024 68 mentions in 20 episodes 3 per episode
2023 60 mentions in 14 episodes 4 per episode
2022 36 mentions in 10 episodes 4 per episode
2021 31 mentions in 11 episodes 3 per episode
2020 2 mentions in 2 episodes 1 per episode

every mention, scene by scene, with the transcript →

Everything said about SpaceX, oldest first

Mar 20, 2021 positive
Assertion Supported
Chamath: Relativity Space is second most valuable private spaceflight firm
“A company called relativity space is now the second most valuable private spaceflight company after SpaceX.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Mar 20, 2021 ▶ 34:05 E26: State of Venture Capital, plus fan questions on longevity, decentralization & quantum computing
Jun 13, 2021 positive
Assertion Partly supported
Calacanis: SpaceX had two accidents in 120-plus flights, zero in six years
“Two of the 120 plus flights that SpaceX have done, but none in the last six years have had an accident.”
Jason Calacanis Jun 13, 2021 ▶ 27:41 E35: Biogen's controversial Alzheimer's drug approval, the billionaire space race, Bitcoin & more
Aug 6, 2021 positive
Opinion
Friedberg: Elon Musk is the only hype man who delivers in deep tech
“There's only one hype man on planet Earth that is good enough to pull this off and actually deliver the goods at the end of the day. It's probably Elon, like, because, you know, he funded these businesses that were deep tech businesses, Tesla and SpaceX. For m…”
David Friedberg Aug 6, 2021 ▶ 40:00 E43: Innovative venture strategies, Zymergen's implosion, Square acquires Afterpay & more
Aug 28, 2021 negative
Insight
Chamath: Filing lawsuits alienates the top technical talent Blue Origin needs
“In order for Jeff to achieve his ambitions, he needs deeply technical people. And this is the simplest way to basically turn them off because this is not what technical people do.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Aug 28, 2021 ▶ 1:25:39 E44: USA's Afghanistan embarrassment, China's new algo laws, future of robots + Italy recap!
Oct 2, 2021 positive
What-if
Friedberg: Musk couldn't have funded Tesla and SpaceX without selling PayPal
“Elon sold PayPal and he was able to use that money to reinvest in Tesla and SpaceX. I think Elon's putting all the money back into two companies that are solving two major issues for humanity. He wouldn't have been able to do that if he hadn't sold in the firs…”
David Friedberg Oct 2, 2021 ▶ 56:50 E49: Coinbase CEO reflects on controversial blog, state of the markets, 1000 unicorns & more
Nov 20, 2021 negative
Assertion Contradicted
Sacks: NASA lacked space transport capabilities between the Shuttle and SpaceX
“After the space shuttle was retired, NASA didn't even have a way to Get to space until SpaceX had the rockets.”
David Sacks Nov 20, 2021 ▶ 55:09 E56: Constitution DAO, Rittenhouse trial coverage, private sector efficiency vs the government
Nov 20, 2021 negative
Assertion Partly supported
Palihapitiya: NASA spent $360 billion while SpaceX spent $11 billion
“They went back and they actually counted how much money NASA spent in like the last seven or eight years, and the number was 360 odd billion dollars. And then they counted how much money SpaceX had spent, and it was, you know, if you counted revenue between se…”
Chamath Palihapitiya Nov 20, 2021 ▶ 54:45 E56: Constitution DAO, Rittenhouse trial coverage, private sector efficiency vs the government
Dec 23, 2021 bullish
Disclosure
Palihapitiya discloses that All-In podcast hosts own SpaceX equity
“All I can say for all of us who own SpaceX.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Dec 23, 2021 ▶ 1:18:07 E60: The 2021 Bestie Awards PLUS Jack Dorsey starts the Web3 Wars
Apr 9, 2022 positive
Opinion
Palihapitiya: Twitter free speech impact could exceed Tesla and SpaceX
“I think that if he is able to make free speech cool again, he'll, he'll actually do more doing that than potentially through SpaceX and Tesla, and that's already saying a lot.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Apr 9, 2022 ▶ 45:14 E75: Fast shuts down, board culpability, Elon buys 9% of Twitter, deplatforming's evolution & more
May 16, 2022
What-if
SpaceX and Tesla avoided 2008 bankruptcy by paying suppliers late
“I mean, both SpaceX and Tesla in 2008, if we'd simply paid our suppliers on time, we would have gone bankrupt immediately.”
Elon Musk May 16, 2022 ▶ 36:31 Elon Musk: Twitter's bot problem, SpaceX's grand plan, Tesla stories & more
May 16, 2022 bullish
Prediction Open · timeframe May 2027
Musk: Starlink revenue will enable a permanent moon base
“The revenue generated from Starlink is what can enable the of a permanently crewed base on the moon, which will be the next, you know, next step from Apollo”
Elon Musk May 16, 2022 ▶ 43:51 Elon Musk: Twitter's bot problem, SpaceX's grand plan, Tesla stories & more
Jun 7, 2022
Disclosure
Valor doubled down on Tesla and SpaceX during the 2008 crisis
“We put more money in Tesla than we were in the financial crisis, and then helped lead a convert round there that was really tough for us to do, and then put money in SpaceX.”
Antonio Gracias Jun 7, 2022 ▶ 3:50 #AIS: Bestie AMA with Valor's Antonio Gracias
Jun 7, 2022 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Gracias: Electric VTOL startups will earn basic industrial margins due to competition
“SpaceX is an end of one. If you compare that to someone making an electric vehicle that, say, an electric airplane or electric VTOL, that will not be an end of one. It'll be an end of many. And in an end of many business, you're ultimately going to have margin…”
Antonio Gracias Jun 7, 2022 ▶ 9:04 #AIS: Bestie AMA with Valor's Antonio Gracias
Jun 7, 2022 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Gracias: Starlink will deliver very high margins and strong ROIC
“So it's like in building Starlink, same thing, capital going in, but we know that the margins and the profitability of that business on the back end will be very, very high, and so the ROIC will be very good.”
Antonio Gracias Jun 7, 2022 ▶ 8:21 #AIS: Bestie AMA with Valor's Antonio Gracias
Oct 29, 2022 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
David Sacks predicts Starlink will be a phenomenal business
“And I think Starlink's going to be A phenomenal business.”
David Sacks Oct 29, 2022 ▶ 12:45 E102: Elon closes Twitter deal, $META uncertainty, Zuck's historic bet, big tech decline & more
Oct 29, 2022 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Calacanis: Starlink enterprise internet backup business could become ginormous
“So I could see many companies putting in Starlink, even if they have a fiber line or whatever, just as a backup, that business alone could be ginormous.”
Jason Calacanis Oct 29, 2022 ▶ 48:14 E102: Elon closes Twitter deal, $META uncertainty, Zuck's historic bet, big tech decline & more
Jan 6, 2023 bullish
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Chamath predicts Starlink will IPO in 2023 at a $75B+ valuation
“Starlink will go public. Oh, SpaceX will cut and paste the cap table. And we will take that. Yum. Yum. It'll be yummy and delicious. And my prediction is that the Starlink valuation will be at least half of SpaceX's current private mark.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Jan 6, 2023 ▶ 42:12 E110: 2023 Bestie Predictions!
Apr 21, 2023 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Baker: Starship will carry 100+ metric tons to orbit under $2M variable cost
“Once you do that, they should be able to send over a hundred metric tons to orbit at a variable cost of under two million dollars per public data.”
Gavin Baker Apr 21, 2023 ▶ 4:39 E125: SpaceX launch, Fox News settlement, "Zombie-corn" exodus to AI, late-stage implosion
Apr 21, 2023 bearish
Opinion
Chamath: ULA, Blue Origin, and European launch providers are too inconsistent to rely on
“You can't launch with ULA because they're inconsistent. You can't launch with Blue Origin because they're inconsistent. You can't launch with the Europeans in general because they're inconsistent. SpaceX is the only solution”
Chamath Palihapitiya Apr 21, 2023 ▶ 25:08 E125: SpaceX launch, Fox News settlement, "Zombie-corn" exodus to AI, late-stage implosion
Apr 21, 2023 positive
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Baker: SpaceX made 1,000+ improvements to next Starship before test flight
“The one that's going to launch in three months or two months or four months or five months or whenever it is, they've already made over a thousand discrete improvements to it. And that was before they got all the data for today.”
Gavin Baker Apr 21, 2023 ▶ 15:57 E125: SpaceX launch, Fox News settlement, "Zombie-corn" exodus to AI, late-stage implosion
Apr 21, 2023 positive
Assertion Partly supported
Gracias: SpaceX Starship's interior volume equals the International Space Station
“It's important to know that like the size of this thing to give a sense of scale is the interior space of it is the size of the International Space Station.”
Antonio Gracias Apr 21, 2023 ▶ 6:36 E125: SpaceX launch, Fox News settlement, "Zombie-corn" exodus to AI, late-stage implosion
Apr 21, 2023
Assertion Supported
Baker: Falcon 9 carries 17 metric tons at $15M variable cost
“The Falcon nine. Mass to useful orbit is 17 metric tons, and the variable cost that, you know, I have seen Elon tweet about is somewhere around fifteen million dollars.”
Gavin Baker Apr 21, 2023 ▶ 5:19 E125: SpaceX launch, Fox News settlement, "Zombie-corn" exodus to AI, late-stage implosion
Apr 21, 2023 bullish
Assertion Contradicted
Chamath: SpaceX is the only company capable of building and launching satellite capacity
“The only company that actually has the capability to build and to launch is SpaceX. So they have a complete monopoly and because they're advantaging their own Solution. It puts everybody else behind the eight ball.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Apr 21, 2023 ▶ 24:30 E125: SpaceX launch, Fox News settlement, "Zombie-corn" exodus to AI, late-stage implosion
Apr 21, 2023
Prediction Held up
Gracias: SpaceX will need at least two to three months to rebuild launchpad
“It'll take at least two or three months to really get the pad rebuilt and get another vehicle back on for testing maybe longer.”
Antonio Gracias Apr 21, 2023 ▶ 3:12 E125: SpaceX launch, Fox News settlement, "Zombie-corn" exodus to AI, late-stage implosion
Apr 21, 2023 positive
Assertion Supported
Sacks: SpaceX has FCC permission for 12,000 Starlink satellites
“SpaceX has gotten permission from the FCC to put up about 12,000 Starlink satellites”
David Sacks Apr 21, 2023 ▶ 23:54 E125: SpaceX launch, Fox News settlement, "Zombie-corn" exodus to AI, late-stage implosion
May 19, 2023 positive
Assertion Supported
Chamath: Elon Musk leads companies with female top executives across Tesla, Twitter, SpaceX
“He has a female chairman at Tesla, a female CEO at Twitter, and a female president at SpaceX.”
Chamath Palihapitiya May 19, 2023 ▶ 46:35 E129: Sam Altman plays chess with regulators, AI's "nuclear" potential, big pharma bundling & more
Aug 11, 2023 bullish
Disclosure
Sacks: Craft Ventures plans to hold SpaceX investment until IPO
“I think we're going to wait till the company IPOs. I think that would be our default.”
David Sacks Aug 11, 2023 ▶ 1:08:34 E141: State of Series A's, VC dry powder, IPO window opens + more with Bill Gurley & Brad Gerstner
Sep 1, 2023 negative
Assertion Partly supported
Chamath: DOJ sued SpaceX for hiring policies the DOJ itself follows
“The DOJ sued SpaceX basically for DEI foot faults. They said that there was not enough Refugees and asylum seekers that were being adequately considered and being hired by SpaceX. The problem with that, as it turns out, is that the DOJ is not even allowed to h…”
Chamath Palihapitiya Sep 1, 2023 ▶ 10:14 E144: Biden targets Elon, BRICS challenges the West, Tiger hit piece & more
Sep 13, 2023 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Musk: Probably over 50% chance Starship reaches orbit on second test
“So I'd say maybe it's like a, you know, above, I'd say probably above a 50% chance of getting to orbit this time, whereas previously I said below 50.”
Elon Musk Sep 13, 2023 ▶ 3:45 Elon Musk: Ukraine, X, the creator economy, China, AI, & more | All-In Summit 2023
Sep 13, 2023 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Musk: Starship will be capable of aircraft-level flight rates
“So, it will be capable of, you know, basically aircraft level flight rates.”
Elon Musk Sep 13, 2023 ▶ 5:16 Elon Musk: Ukraine, X, the creator economy, China, AI, & more | All-In Summit 2023
Sep 13, 2023 positive
Assertion Partly supported
Musk: Starship has roughly three times the thrust of Saturn V
“Well, so, I mean, making a rocket that is more than twice the size of a Saturn V you know, it's in fact, with an X-ray of the rocket, it'll have roughly three times the thrust of a Saturn V moon rocket.”
Elon Musk Sep 13, 2023 ▶ 4:05 Elon Musk: Ukraine, X, the creator economy, China, AI, & more | All-In Summit 2023
Sep 13, 2023
Assertion Supported
Musk: SpaceX and Starlink have zero business presence in China
“SpaceX and Starlink have no business in China whatsoever. They're not allowed, you know, SpaceX doesn't launch China satellites, and Starlink is abandoned in China. So, to be clear, SpaceX, Starlink, zero business in China.”
Elon Musk Sep 13, 2023 ▶ 32:47 Elon Musk: Ukraine, X, the creator economy, China, AI, & more | All-In Summit 2023
Sep 26, 2023 positive
Opinion
Khosla: Rocket Lab has a superior strategy to SpaceX
“We're investors in Rocket Lab, so I like it a little more. They do have a superior strategy, but SpaceX has done a great job.”
Vinod Khosla Sep 26, 2023 ▶ 22:41 All-In Summit: In conversation with Vinod Khosla
Jan 6, 2024 bullish
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Chamath: Starlink will go public in 2024
“I'm gonna go with the same thing. I think I was just off by your Starlink will go public.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Jan 6, 2024 ▶ 39:39 E160: 2024 Predictions! Markets, tech, politics, and more
Mar 16, 2024 positive
Assertion Contradicted
Friedberg: SpaceX's Starship is the largest object to ever fly in space
“And here he is at the end of this period of time with this incredible craft, the largest object to ever fly in outer space.”
David Friedberg Mar 16, 2024 ▶ 1:33:28 E170: Tech's Vibe Shift, TikTok ban debate, Vertical AI boom, Florida bans lab-grown meat & more
Aug 16, 2024 negative
Assertion Supported
Friedberg: Boeing took a $1.6B loss on Starliner compared to SpaceX Dragon
“To date, by the way, Boeing has taken a 1.6 billion dollar financial hit On the development of this program. SpaceX, by the way, won a 2.6 billion dollar contract to develop the Crew Dragon capsule, and just to give you guys a sense, the Crew Dragon capsule ha…”
David Friedberg Aug 16, 2024 ▶ 1:23:07 Break up Google, Starbucks CEO out, Kamala’s price controls, Boeing disaster, Kursk offensive
Sep 10, 2024 negative
Assertion Partly supported
Musk: EPA fined SpaceX $140,000 for discharging potable water
“SpaceX was fined by the EPA, 140,000 dollars for they claimed dumping potable water on the ground.”
Elon Musk Sep 10, 2024 ▶ 13:04 Elon Musk | All-In Summit 2024
Sep 10, 2024 neutral
Disclosure
Musk: Most of SpaceX's revenue is commercial, not government contracts
“And a lot of people think, well, SpaceX is super dependent on the government, and actually, no, most of our revenue is commercial.”
Elon Musk Sep 10, 2024 ▶ 36:31 Elon Musk | All-In Summit 2024
Sep 25, 2024
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Russian Soyuz was the sole ISS crew transport from 2011 to 2020
“When the space shuttle retired, it left us our only option to continue sending humans up to the space station was a Russian Soyuz rocket. That situation changed in May of 2020. SpaceX made history. They launched NASA astronauts Bob Behnken and Doug Hurley on a…”
Woody Hoburg Sep 25, 2024 ▶ 2:04 NASA Astronaut Woody Hoburg | All-In Summit 2024
Oct 18, 2024 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Friedberg: SpaceX could reach $10/kg launch costs within a couple of years
“So if you can reuse that thing 10 times, that's a 3.5 million dollar cost per launch, plus a million for fuel. You could easily see, and this thing can launch 200 tons. That's how you start to get to 10 bucks a kilogram over the next couple of years.”
David Friedberg Oct 18, 2024 ▶ 20:11 Dueling Presidential interviews, SpaceX’s big catch, Robotaxis, Uber buying Expedia?, Nuclear NIMBY
Oct 18, 2024 negative
Assertion Supported
Friedberg: Coastal Commission cited Musk's tweets to block SpaceX launches
“I will comment on the California Coastal Commission ruling that was based on Elon's political tweets, which is why they stopped additional launches out of Vandenberg.”
David Friedberg Oct 18, 2024 ▶ 1:11:52 Dueling Presidential interviews, SpaceX’s big catch, Robotaxis, Uber buying Expedia?, Nuclear NIMBY
Oct 18, 2024 bullish
Assertion Supported
Friedberg: Starlink currently has 4 million subscribers
“Starlink's apparently, I mean, I know everyone here is a shareholder in SpaceX, but Starlink's running at four million subs right now.”
David Friedberg Oct 18, 2024 ▶ 21:18 Dueling Presidential interviews, SpaceX’s big catch, Robotaxis, Uber buying Expedia?, Nuclear NIMBY
Oct 18, 2024 positive
Assertion Partly supported
Friedberg: SpaceX reduced orbit launch costs tenfold to ~$1,000/kg over a decade
“When this took off, It was about 10,000 bucks a kilogram to put a small sat into space or to put material into space. And then SpaceX has dropped the cost to the point that it's now close to a thousand dollars a kilogram. So a 10 X reduction in cost in just th…”
David Friedberg Oct 18, 2024 ▶ 18:35 Dueling Presidential interviews, SpaceX’s big catch, Robotaxis, Uber buying Expedia?, Nuclear NIMBY
Dec 20, 2024 positive
Assertion Supported
Palihapitiya: SpaceX uses stablecoins to collect global Starlink payments
“The point is that a lot of companies that you would never think, so for example, SpaceX uses these stable coins.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Dec 20, 2024 ▶ 12:18 DOGE kills its first bill, Zuck vs OpenAI, Google's AI comeback
Dec 25, 2024 bullish
Assertion Partly supported
Friedberg notes SpaceX nearly tripled its valuation to $350 billion in 2024
“And SpaceX at like a three hundred fifty billion dollar valuation, like tripling from that level in a year.”
David Friedberg Dec 25, 2024 ▶ 18:23 The All-In Holiday Spectacular
Dec 25, 2024 positive
Opinion
Calacanis: Peter Thiel is one of the greatest investors across business and politics
“Best investor for me was Peter Thiel, but on two tracks. Obviously Peter's been in some of the great companies through Founders Fund, including SpaceX, but he also picked Trump, he also picked Vance, and he also picked Sachs, so I think it's undeniable that Pe…”
Jason Calacanis Dec 25, 2024 ▶ 48:57 The All-In Holiday Spectacular
Mar 22, 2025 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Palihapitiya: Any launch alternative to SpaceX is years away
“The point is SpaceX is the best. There is nobody even close. The next closest alternative is years and years away.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Mar 22, 2025 ▶ 1:17:52 White House BTS, Google buys Wiz, Treasury vs Fed, Space Rescue
Mar 22, 2025 neutral
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Friedberg: Space race will be defined by SpaceX versus China
“This is basically what I think is going to end up being the story over the next couple of years is the space race between effectively SpaceX's platform and technology versus China, which has effectively ripped off SpaceX as this is kind of being described here…”
David Friedberg Mar 22, 2025 ▶ 1:19:20 White House BTS, Google buys Wiz, Treasury vs Fed, Space Rescue
Apr 26, 2025 neutral
Assertion Contradicted
Chamath: Alphabet owns a 10% stake in SpaceX
“And they own 10% of SpaceX, by the way.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Apr 26, 2025 ▶ 52:57 Trump Rally or Bessent Put? Elon Back at Tesla, Google's Gemini Problem, China's Thorium Discovery
Jun 4, 2025 positive
What-if
Isaacman: Without SpaceX, the US would already be behind China in space launch
“Thank goodness for SpaceX, or we definitely be already behind in that regard.”
Jared Isaacman Jun 4, 2025 ▶ 48:09 Jared Isaacman: What went wrong at NASA | The All-In Interview
Sep 10, 2025 bullish
Prediction Open · timeframe Sep 2050
Musk: Mars could become self-sustaining in roughly 25 to 30 years
“I think it can be done in, in 30 years. Provided there's an exponential increase in the tonnage to Mars, with each successive Mars transfer windows, which is every two years. So every two years, the planets align, and you can transfer to Mars. So I think in, R…”
Elon Musk Sep 10, 2025 ▶ 43:47 Elon Musk on DOGE, Optimus, Starlink Smartphones, Evolving with AI, Why the West is Imploding
Sep 10, 2025 positive
Prediction Open · timeframe Sep 2027
Musk predicts direct-to-cell Starlink smartphones will ship by 2027
“So the phones that are able to use the spectrum that was acquired probably start shipping in around two years.”
Elon Musk Sep 10, 2025 ▶ 18:11 Elon Musk on DOGE, Optimus, Starlink Smartphones, Evolving with AI, Why the West is Imploding
Sep 10, 2025 bullish
Prediction Open · timeframe Dec 2026
Musk predicts SpaceX will demonstrate full Starship reusability by 2026
“Unless we have some very major setbacks SpaceX will demonstrate full reusability next year catching both the booster and the ship and being able to deliver over a hundred tons to a useful orbit.”
Elon Musk Sep 10, 2025 ▶ 21:26 Elon Musk on DOGE, Optimus, Starlink Smartphones, Evolving with AI, Why the West is Imploding
Sep 15, 2025 positive
Assertion Supported
Tenev: Robinhood was first to tokenize OpenAI and SpaceX shares
“We were actually, I think, the first to tokenize OpenAI and SpaceX, and we made that available to our retail customers in Europe in the form of a giveaway”
Vlad Tenev Sep 15, 2025 ▶ 4:48 Robinhood CEO Vlad Tenev on tokenizing stocks, expanding access to private shares, fintech's future
Oct 30, 2025 positive
Assertion Partly supported
Calacanis: SpaceX reduced space launch costs to 5% of former levels
“We now can get to space for, you know, five percent of the cost that we used to, thanks to Elon Musk and SpaceX.”
Jason Calacanis Oct 30, 2025 ▶ 19:17 Pete Buttigieg: The Left's Identity Crisis, Wealth Tax, 2024 Mistakes, Plans for 2028
Jan 10, 2026 bullish
Prediction Open · timeframe Dec 2026
Calacanis: At least two major tech unicorns will file IPOs in 2026
“Anticipate one of the following two will file. SpaceX, Android, Stripe, Anthropic, and OpenAI. I think two of those file, and it is going to be gangbusters.”
Jason Calacanis Jan 10, 2026 ▶ 1:20:27 All-In's 2026 Predictions
Jan 10, 2026 bullish
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Chamath: SpaceX will reverse merge into Tesla instead of IPOing
“I don't think SpaceX will IPO. I think that it will reverse merge into Tesla, and I think Elon will use it as a moment to consolidate control and power of his two seminal assets into one cap table.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Jan 10, 2026 ▶ 1:00:30 All-In's 2026 Predictions
Feb 7, 2026 bullish
Prediction Held up
Calacanis: Combined SpaceX and xAI will IPO this year
“Now those two become part of SpaceX and they're going to IPO this year, potentially the biggest IPO in history in terms of money raised and market cap.”
Jason Calacanis Feb 7, 2026 ▶ 1:01:14 Epstein Files, Is SaaS Dead?, Moltbook Panic, SpaceX xAI Merger, Trump's Fed Pick
Apr 3, 2026 neutral
Assertion Supported
Calacanis: SpaceX filed confidentially for IPO targeting $1.75T valuation
“SpaceX filed confidentially to go public on April first, targeting a 1.7 five trillion, with a T, valuation.”
Jason Calacanis Apr 3, 2026 ▶ 0:13 SpaceX IPO, Iran War Fallout, Quantum Bitcoin Hack, The Space Opportunity
Apr 3, 2026 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Chamath: Public markets will exhaust capital after initial tech IPOs
“I don't think we're going to have like these quote unquote blockbuster stream of IPOs. I think what happens is SpaceX is going to get out. They're going to do great. And then maybe the next one does good to great. Then the next one will do good. And then the a…”
Chamath Palihapitiya Apr 3, 2026 ▶ 24:39 SpaceX IPO, Iran War Fallout, Quantum Bitcoin Hack, The Space Opportunity
Apr 3, 2026 bullish
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Friedberg: SpaceX has largely built a backup internet through Starlink
“So in space, with the number of satellites going up with Starlink, and to actually deploy data centers that can output data on those nodes on that network, SpaceX has largely built a backup internet.”
David Friedberg Apr 3, 2026 ▶ 11:42 SpaceX IPO, Iran War Fallout, Quantum Bitcoin Hack, The Space Opportunity
Apr 3, 2026 bullish
Prediction Open · timeframe Apr 2031
Chamath: Tesla and SpaceX have a 99.999% chance of merging
“Sorry. Let me be clear. 99.999%.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Apr 3, 2026 ▶ 2:11 SpaceX IPO, Iran War Fallout, Quantum Bitcoin Hack, The Space Opportunity
Apr 6, 2026 bullish
Prediction Open · timeframe Apr 2031
Sankar: SpaceX Starship heavy reuse will cut launch costs below $20/kg
“Starship heavy reuse will be under 20 bucks a kilogram”
Shyam Sankar Apr 6, 2026 ▶ 27:11 The State of Modern War: Palantir & Anduril Execs on Drones, AI, and the End of Traditional Warfare
Apr 6, 2026 neutral
Insight
Stephens: Missing single category winners usually leads to net investment losses
“If you're a space tech investor and you didn't invest in SpaceX, you probably lost money. If you're a crypto infrastructure investor and you didn't invest in Coinbase, Probably lost money. If you're a social media investor and you didn't invest in Facebook, yo…”
Trey Stevens Apr 6, 2026 ▶ 19:06 The State of Modern War: Palantir & Anduril Execs on Drones, AI, and the End of Traditional Warfare
Apr 10, 2026 negative
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Gerstner: VCs are terrified to invest outside frontier AI, SpaceX, and defense
“Venture capitalists are terrified to invest money in anything other than these frontier models and things like SpaceX or military modernization.”
Brad Gerstner Apr 10, 2026 ▶ 1:03:43 Anthropic’s $30B Ramp, Mythos Doomsday, OpenClaw Ankled, Iran War Ceasefire, Israel's Influence
Apr 17, 2026 bearish
Disclosure
Chamath is currently risk-off and waiting for AI IPOs to de-lever
“I don't know, for me personally, I'm generally more risk off right now. And more importantly, I'm waiting for these IPOs so that I can, to be very honest with you, de-lever and get some chips off the table. I think that it is crucial that this SpaceX IPO get d…”
Chamath Palihapitiya Apr 17, 2026 ▶ 1:17:08 OpenAI's Identity Crisis, Datacenter Wars, Market Up on Iran News, Mamdani's First Tax, Swalwell Out
Apr 24, 2026 bullish
Prediction Open · timeframe Apr 2027
Calacanis: SpaceX, xAI, and Cursor will lead AI coding within 12 months
“If you put these two together, I predict that this is going to move Space X, X, X AI and cursor to the front of the coding leaderboard within 12 months.”
Jason Calacanis Apr 24, 2026 ▶ 7:00 SpaceX-Cursor Deal, SaaS Debt Bomb, New Apple CEO, SPLC Indictment, Colon Cancer Spike
May 8, 2026 bullish
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Gerstner: SpaceX IPO will trade at 40 to 50 times revenue
“This is why the SpaceX IPO is going to trade at 40 to 50 times revenue.”
Brad Gerstner May 8, 2026 ▶ 23:11 Elon’s Anthropic Deal, The Next AI Monopoly?, “FDA for AI” Panic, Trading the AI Boom
May 8, 2026 bullish
Prediction Open · timeframe Jun 2027
Chamath predicts Tesla and SpaceX will merge by mid-next year
“When Tesla and SpaceX merge and we have all things, Elon and Elon Corp. Okay. Which will happen. Probably by the end of the year, maybe it'll happen in the middle of next year.”
Chamath Palihapitiya May 8, 2026 ▶ 24:46 Elon’s Anthropic Deal, The Next AI Monopoly?, “FDA for AI” Panic, Trading the AI Boom
May 15, 2026 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Chamath: SpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI IPOs will trigger litany of SPV lawsuits
“By the way, and I will guarantee you this. Once SpaceX goes public, once Anthropic goes public, once OpenAI goes public, you're going to see a litany of these lawsuits back and forth between the purveyors of these SPVs.”
Chamath Palihapitiya May 15, 2026 ▶ 1:12:28 Trump-Xi Summit, Benioff: "Not My First SaaSpocalypse," OpenAI vs Apple, Multi-Sensory AI, El Niño
May 22, 2026 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Palihapitiya: SpaceX revenue will reach $40B-$45B next year and double after
“So I suspect what happens is next year, it's probably 40, forty five billion. And then the year after that, it probably doubles again.”
Chamath Palihapitiya May 22, 2026 ▶ 1:01:44 SpaceX’s $2T Case, Nvidia’s Shock Selloff, America Turns on AI, Trump Pulls AI Order, Bond Crisis?
May 22, 2026 bullish
Assertion Supported
Calacanis: Anthropic signed $45B compute rental deal with SpaceX
“Anthropic is paying SpaceX, wait for it, 1.25 billion a month. To rent out Colossus One and parts of Colossus Two. It's a forty five billion dollar deal over three years, fifteen billion a year.”
Jason Calacanis May 22, 2026 ▶ 46:55 SpaceX’s $2T Case, Nvidia’s Shock Selloff, America Turns on AI, Trump Pulls AI Order, Bond Crisis?
May 22, 2026 neutral
Prediction Open · timeframe May 2031
Palihapitiya: Tesla will eventually merge into Elon Musk's wider ecosystem
“I still don't like the fact that Tesla's over here. And as I've told you, that will get merged in.”
Chamath Palihapitiya May 22, 2026 ▶ 1:02:35 SpaceX’s $2T Case, Nvidia’s Shock Selloff, America Turns on AI, Trump Pulls AI Order, Bond Crisis?
May 22, 2026 neutral
Assertion Contradicted
Chamath: SpaceX has already acquired Cursor
“I already told you they already bought it.”
Chamath Palihapitiya May 22, 2026 ▶ 47:15 SpaceX’s $2T Case, Nvidia’s Shock Selloff, America Turns on AI, Trump Pulls AI Order, Bond Crisis?
May 22, 2026 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Palihapitiya: SpaceX revenue will probably reach $25B-$30B this year
“Well, last year it did 18, nineteen billion dollars. It'll probably do 25 to 30 this year.”
Chamath Palihapitiya May 22, 2026 ▶ 1:00:09 SpaceX’s $2T Case, Nvidia’s Shock Selloff, America Turns on AI, Trump Pulls AI Order, Bond Crisis?
May 22, 2026 positive
Assertion Supported
Calacanis: Starlink generated $11.4B in revenue and $4.4B in operating income
“Starlink did 11.4 billion in revenue last year on 50% growth with 4.4 billion in operating income.”
Jason Calacanis May 22, 2026 ▶ 45:54 SpaceX’s $2T Case, Nvidia’s Shock Selloff, America Turns on AI, Trump Pulls AI Order, Bond Crisis?
May 22, 2026 bullish
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Gavin Baker: Major tech firms are convinced orbital compute will become reality
“Google, Anthropic, Amazon, NVIDIA. They are all very convinced that orbital compute is going to be reality, and obviously SpaceX is extraordinarily well positioned for that.”
Gavin Baker May 22, 2026 ▶ 52:41 SpaceX’s $2T Case, Nvidia’s Shock Selloff, America Turns on AI, Trump Pulls AI Order, Bond Crisis?
May 22, 2026 bullish
Prediction Open · timeframe May 2028
Baker estimates SpaceX will achieve rapid Starship reusability within 1-2 years
“I don't know when. I don't want to make a prediction. I would guess a year or two. Maybe sooner.”
Gavin Baker May 22, 2026 ▶ 1:09:08 SpaceX’s $2T Case, Nvidia’s Shock Selloff, America Turns on AI, Trump Pulls AI Order, Bond Crisis?
Jun 3, 2026 bullish
Prediction Open · timeframe Jun 2029
Ackman: Amazon will have to become an even bigger SpaceX customer
“Even Amazon is going to have to become an even bigger customer because they're not, you know, Blue Origins, you know”
Bill Ackman Jun 3, 2026 ▶ 12:19 Bill Ackman: Here's What the Market is MISSING
Jun 3, 2026 bullish
Disclosure
Bill Ackman discloses investments in X, xAI, and SpaceX
“I actually invested in X. I invested in XAI. I'm in an SPV. Ron Barron said, Bill, you gotta invest in SpaceX. So I, so I'm in”
Bill Ackman Jun 3, 2026 ▶ 12:44 Bill Ackman: Here's What the Market is MISSING
Jun 4, 2026 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Laffont: Governments and companies will seek to own private satellite constellations
“We believe that a wide variety of companies and governments and militaries will want to own their own constellations so they can control their own destiny.”
Thomas Laffont Jun 4, 2026 ▶ 9:49 Thomas Laffont: The $4T AI IPO Wave Is Coming… and We’ve Never Seen Anything Like It
Jun 4, 2026 bullish
Prediction Held up
Laffont: SpaceX will go public in the next few weeks
“That doesn't include three companies that we know will be coming public pretty shortly, SpaceX obviously in the next few weeks, and we know Anthropic just today, the headlines hit that they've submitted confidentially for their S-one.”
Thomas Laffont Jun 4, 2026 ▶ 5:16 Thomas Laffont: The $4T AI IPO Wave Is Coming… and We’ve Never Seen Anything Like It
Jun 4, 2026 bullish
Prediction Open · timeframe Jun 2029
Laffont: Starlink will enable worldwide satellite phone calls within a few years
“I believe that within a few years, Starlink will power a device which will actually enable you to make a phone call anywhere in the world.”
Thomas Laffont Jun 4, 2026 ▶ 16:30 Thomas Laffont: The $4T AI IPO Wave Is Coming… and We’ve Never Seen Anything Like It
Jun 4, 2026 positive
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Laffont: Launch cadence is top driver of SpaceX valuation
“The number one driver correlated to the valuation of SpaceX is cadence of launches.”
Thomas Laffont Jun 4, 2026 ▶ 8:06 Thomas Laffont: The $4T AI IPO Wave Is Coming… and We’ve Never Seen Anything Like It
Jun 6, 2026 bullish
Prediction Open · timeframe Jun 2029
Marshall: Starship will drastically lower space launch costs in 2-3 years
“On the current trajectory with Starship in particular, I would expect it, the launch costs come down there in two to three years.”
Will Marshall Jun 6, 2026 ▶ 15:59 The IPO Comeback: Why Tech Giants Are Finally Going Public | All-In Liquidity IPO Panel
Jun 6, 2026 bullish
Prediction Held up
Gerstner: SpaceX will use an innovative lockup structure for its IPO
“With respect to the lockup, I think this is the most innovative, and I think SpaceX is going to have a very similar innovation.”
Brad Gerstner Jun 6, 2026 ▶ 27:16 The IPO Comeback: Why Tech Giants Are Finally Going Public | All-In Liquidity IPO Panel
Jun 7, 2026 positive
Assertion Open · timeframe Jun 2029
Rodriques: $500-minimum private equity funds with SpaceX launching for unaccredited investors
“However, there are products coming to market. We can talk about this in detail later, that have 60 companies, including SpaceX, that are listed products for unaccredited, 500 dollar minimums, and that capital for those funds will be the underlying...”
Kelly Rodriques Jun 7, 2026 ▶ 20:47 Why Secondary Markets Are Eating the IPO | All-In Liquidity Secondary Markets Panel
Jun 7, 2026 positive
Opinion
Gerstner: 2021 is a better historical comparison for current AI valuations than 1999
“That is very different than Anthropic, OpenAI, and SpaceX. These are extraordinarily real businesses, so I think the better compare is, like, twenty-twenty-one, right, where valuations get ahead of themselves, or they're at the top end of the range.”
Brad Gerstner Jun 7, 2026 ▶ 31:25 Why Secondary Markets Are Eating the IPO | All-In Liquidity Secondary Markets Panel
Jun 7, 2026 negative
Assertion Partly supported
Gavin Baker: Baillie Gifford was forced to sell SpaceX for regulatory reasons
“Bailey Gifford was forced to sell SpaceX last year for regulatory reasons.”
Gavin Baker Jun 7, 2026 ▶ 24:07 Why Secondary Markets Are Eating the IPO | All-In Liquidity Secondary Markets Panel
Jun 7, 2026 bullish
Assertion Supported
Gerstner: Secondary transactions equal 31% of primary VC activity in 2025
“This is the amount of employee secondary. So this is people buying into Anduril, Anthropic, SpaceX, now represents 31% of all primary venture activity. Is buying into these secondaries in 20, 25.”
Brad Gerstner Jun 7, 2026 ▶ 1:47 Why Secondary Markets Are Eating the IPO | All-In Liquidity Secondary Markets Panel
Jun 7, 2026 positive
Assertion Supported
Rodriques: SpaceX has run liquidity programs for almost a decade
“They've run essentially liquidity programs for almost a decade.”
Kelly Rodriques Jun 7, 2026 ▶ 10:59 Why Secondary Markets Are Eating the IPO | All-In Liquidity Secondary Markets Panel
Jun 19, 2026 negative
What-if
Calacanis: Retail investors would have bought SpaceX early without accredited investor rules
“People knew SpaceX. They were watching these rockets launch for a long time, and they would have placed that bet 10 years ago when the company was worth a hundred billion or ten billion or You know, five hundred billion, but they weren't allowed to because we …”
Jason Calacanis Jun 19, 2026 ▶ 29:33 World's First Trillionaire, Anthropic Fable Banned, The New Oligarchs, Iran Peace Deal
Jun 19, 2026 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Sacks: Musk will hold SpaceX stock past one-year lockup
“He's under a one-year lockup, and I predict that he'll hold on for much longer than that because creating SpaceX is his life's work.”
David Sacks Jun 19, 2026 ▶ 19:25 World's First Trillionaire, Anthropic Fable Banned, The New Oligarchs, Iran Peace Deal
Jul 11, 2026 bullish
Prediction Open · timeframe Jul 2029
Gerstner: SpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI will compound revenue at 30%+ annually
“I think all of these companies are gonna compound revenue at well over 30% for the next many years.”
Brad Gerstner Jul 11, 2026 ▶ 13:12 OpenAI vs Anthropic IPOs, Anthropic $3T, Zuck's Price War, China Ends Open Source?, Trump Accounts
Jul 21, 2026 positive
Opinion
Mark Cuban: Mid-market tech companies should pursue $100M IPOs
“Because it's so driven by private capital, there should be a lot more companies going public, not at the SpaceX level, not open AI, not anthropic, but the hundred million dollar IPO.”
Mark Cuban Jul 21, 2026 ▶ 4:23 Mark Cuban on the AI Bubble: Who Actually Gets Wiped Out?
Aug 7, 2026 neutral
Assertion Supported
Gerstner: Frontier AI labs pay 3x to 5x market price for compute
“Right now the shortage is so acute, and the willingness to pay from the Frontier Labs is so high because they all recognize they're on the verge of some massive breakthroughs. That they're willing to pay three, four, five X market pricing in order to get at sc…”
Brad Gerstner Aug 7, 2026 ▶ 41:28 Google’s AI Brain Drain, SpaceX's Huge Quarter, Airtable’s 90% Collapse, US Data Fuels China AI
Aug 7, 2026 positive
Assertion Supported
Friedberg: Google owns significant stakes in SpaceX and Anthropic
“They have a significant ownership stake in SpaceX and in Anthropic, and they can work with all the open weights models.”
David Friedberg Aug 7, 2026 ▶ 6:08 Google’s AI Brain Drain, SpaceX's Huge Quarter, Airtable’s 90% Collapse, US Data Fuels China AI
Aug 7, 2026 bullish
Assertion Supported
Sacks: Starship launches will add over 20x more Starlink bandwidth
“So basically, SpaceX has developed a new V-III satellite that has 10 X the bandwidth of its V-II satellite. So currently the Starlink network is powered by V-II satellites They deploy them on the Falcon nine rocket, and they launch about 27 satellites per laun…”
David Sacks Aug 7, 2026 ▶ 36:29 Google’s AI Brain Drain, SpaceX's Huge Quarter, Airtable’s 90% Collapse, US Data Fuels China AI
Aug 7, 2026 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Gerstner: Combined Cursor and Grok could reach $10B–$20B by year-end
“Cursor was already on a path to go from three billion to ten billion by the end of the year. Cursor plus Grock could be at 10 to twenty billion by the end of the year.”
Brad Gerstner Aug 7, 2026 ▶ 23:38 Google’s AI Brain Drain, SpaceX's Huge Quarter, Airtable’s 90% Collapse, US Data Fuels China AI
Aug 7, 2026 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Gerstner: SpaceX investors can triple their money over 3 to 4 years
“And now you have a company at 1.4 trillion that I think if you take a three or four year view, you can see yourself tripling your money in this business at a very reasonable valuation on the Morgan Stanley numbers or on the Elon numbers or whatever.”
Brad Gerstner Aug 7, 2026 ▶ 33:34 Google’s AI Brain Drain, SpaceX's Huge Quarter, Airtable’s 90% Collapse, US Data Fuels China AI
Aug 7, 2026 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Friedberg: Starlink alone could reach a $1T valuation within 18 months
“The Starlink business alone could be a trillion dollar market cap within two years, within 18 months, let's say.”
David Friedberg Aug 7, 2026 ▶ 28:22 Google’s AI Brain Drain, SpaceX's Huge Quarter, Airtable’s 90% Collapse, US Data Fuels China AI
Aug 7, 2026 bullish
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Friedberg breaks down Starlink Q2: $4.3B revenue, $2.6B EBITDA, 12M subscribers
“But the connectivity piece on Starlink, 4.3 billion in the quarter, and 2.6 billion in adjusted EBITDA. He's got twelve million subscribers. That's doubled year over year. 66 dollar ARPU per month what people are paying per month. And he grew 20% quarter over …”
David Friedberg Aug 7, 2026 ▶ 27:18 Google’s AI Brain Drain, SpaceX's Huge Quarter, Airtable’s 90% Collapse, US Data Fuels China AI
Aug 7, 2026 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Friedberg: Starlink could generate $30B in annual free cash flow within a year
“Starlink alone could be generating on the order of forty billion dollars of revenue top line with a huge amount of that flowing to free cash. That could be a thirty billion dollar free cash flow within the year.”
David Friedberg Aug 7, 2026 ▶ 27:45 Google’s AI Brain Drain, SpaceX's Huge Quarter, Airtable’s 90% Collapse, US Data Fuels China AI
Aug 7, 2026 bullish
Assertion Supported
Calacanis: SpaceX Q2 revenue hit $7.8B; Elon Web Services hit $2.6B
“7.8 billion in revenue up 92% year over year. Let that sink in. And 67% quarter over quarter AI revenue. Elon web services more than tripled quarter over quarter to 2.6 billion dollars.”
Jason Calacanis Aug 7, 2026 ▶ 21:05 Google’s AI Brain Drain, SpaceX's Huge Quarter, Airtable’s 90% Collapse, US Data Fuels China AI
Aug 7, 2026 bullish
Prediction Open · timeframe Aug 2028
Calacanis: Every Tesla sold will include built-in Starlink connectivity
“So the piece there that's going to be explained probably in the next year or two is every single Tesla sold is going to have Starlink in it when they get that merger done. What that means is you're going to have wifi networks connecting any phone. To any Tesla…”
Jason Calacanis Aug 7, 2026 ▶ 31:56 Google’s AI Brain Drain, SpaceX's Huge Quarter, Airtable’s 90% Collapse, US Data Fuels China AI
Aug 13, 2026 bearish
Insight
Baker: Closed model dominance creates a tough environment for software companies
“A world where Anthropik, OpenAI, and, you know, maybe even SpaceX are kind of the only model providers that dominate the model layer, that is a hard world for software.”
Gavin Baker Aug 13, 2026 ▶ 1:36:33 Anthropic's $2T IPO, Zuck's AI Manifesto, Nvidia's $500B AI Bet, Grok's Comeback
Aug 21, 2026 bullish
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Chamath: Andreessen Horowitz made $15B to $17B on SpaceX
“The cursor was decent. It was like an appetizer, but SpaceX was the main course. That's like 15, seventeen billion.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Aug 21, 2026 ▶ 58:32 Dario Defends Himself, Datacenter Panic, AI Doomer Trap, Senate Toss-Up
Made with StarZero

Turn any episode into a week of clips.

This entire site, over 460 episodes transcribed, diarized, checked and made playable, runs on the StarZero media pipeline. Drop in your own episode and the podcast clipper finds the moments worth sharing, cuts them, captions them, and reframes them for every feed.

Try the podcast clipper Learn more