why aren't all 27 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 1 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Emil Michael: Anthropic exec asked Palantir if AI was used in Maduro raid
“After the Maduro raid, one of their execs called Palantir, who we buy themselves through and asked them was our software used in that raid, which is by the way, classified information.”
Disclosure
Karp: A Democratic administration asked Palantir to build a Muslim database
“We had a democratic administration come to us and basically ask us to do a Muslim database. Now, you would think, given the way I'm kind of besmirched as like some kind of, I don't know, it's like a Jewish conspiracy, that would be the first thing, according t…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Sankar: Chinese Communist Party funds organizations protesting Palantir in the US
“Certainly we see it against Palantir where there, there's CCP money flowing to organizations that are protesting us for various domestic issues here.”
Disclosure
Sankar: Palantir does not collect or hold any data itself
“We don't collect data. We don't have any data.”
Prediction Open · timeframe Nov 2026
Palihapitiya predicts investors shorting Palantir stock will lose money
“Well, I think the Palantir short is stupid, and I think that those people will lose money.”
Insight
Alex Karp: High-precision software is essential to protect civil liberties and reduce collateral harm
“If you care about not being surveilled illegally, if you care about the treatment of people who come into the country illegally, but deserve adequate treatment, if you care about lives, In Gaza, in Ukraine, and all over the world where Palantir is used. You're…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Sankar: Defense tech sector will follow a venture power law distribution
“Just like and I interviewed Trey in my new book on this, like, just like venture, there's gonna be a power law here.”
Assertion Supported
Sankar: Palantir famously had to sue the government just to compete
“Famously we had to sue our customer just For the right to compete.”
Assertion Supported
Emil Michael: Anthropic retains control plane for AWS GovCloud deployed model
“Yeah, so they put their model in AWS GovCloud. And then Palantir serves it from there. And they refresh it. They held the control plane for the model.”
Assertion Contradicted
Chamath: Palantir announced it will stop hiring from colleges
“We have Palantir today saying that they are not going to hire from college anymore.”
Disclosure
Karp: Palantir does not directly or indirectly surveil US citizens
“No, we are not surveilling U.S. Citizens. No, our data is not being used to aggregate and to create imputed wait, because you could say, do you do it directly? Do you do it indirectly? That's a fair question. No.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Friedberg predicts legacy defense contractors will face severe challenges in 2025
“I went with the kind of old defense and aerospace providers, Boeing, Lockheed Martin, Raytheon. Driven by kind of China dominance, driven by US defense budgets that I think are going to need to shift towards a more kind of tech oriented and ROI driven rational…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Stephens: Anduril reached $10M ARR in 22 months versus Palantir's five years
“What took Palantir, I guess, probably about five years to get to ten million annually in revenue, we did that in 22 months.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Alex Karp: Palantir supported the U.S. government despite severe public backlash
“We stood up for the U.S. Government even when it was really, really unpopular.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Alex Karp: Palantir's main protests over 20 years stem from supporting Special Operations
“I've been yelled at for 20 years, and protested primarily for supporting special operations.”
Opinion
Alex Karp: Russia and France have the world's best math cultures
“Like, the two best math cultures in the world are Russia and France, and like, we hire ad nauseum from France.”
Disclosure
Alex Karp: Palantir has never worked with China or Russia
“We never worked with China. We never worked with Russia.”
Insight
Sankar: Technology can increase both privacy and security simultaneously
“For any amount of given security, you should have more privacy than you had before. Or any amount of given privacy, you should have more security. And this sort of changing the dialectic there was really the entire impetus of what we started with.”
Disclosure
Stephens: Palantir and Anduril's shared goal is US military deterrence
“And I think that that's really the goal of everything we were working on at Palantir is what we're working on at Anderil, which is make it unthinkable to your adversaries that they should ever challenge you.”
Assertion Supported
Emil Michael: Palantir is the Pentagon prime contractor and Anthropic is sub
“Palantir is the prime contractor, their sub.”
Assertion Supported
Friedberg: Tech companies are launching paid apprenticeships letting students skip college
“I forgot who it is, whether it was Palantir or someone just started doing this. A program where they're like, skip college, come, come and do your, basically your apprenticeship here. So instead of going to college. And it's paid. It's paid. You'll continue yo…”
Assertion Supported
Sacks: Palantir is the highest-valued public software company by ARR multiple
“The most highly valued public software company right now in terms of AR multiple is Palantir.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Ovitz: Palantir saved JPMorgan $150M in 55 days during 2008 crisis
“And we delivered in 55 days and we saved them one hundred and fifty million dollars to the bottom line in that 55 day period.”
Disclosure
Dan Loeb: Third Point sold all its Palantir stock in the $20s
“We were we were private investors in Palantir And I think we sold all our stock in the twenties.”
Assertion Supported
Sacks: Palantir stock went up 5x in 2024 from $16 to $76
“I said Palantir was the biggest business surprise this year. I mean, I thought the company would do well, but its stock went up five X this year from 16 dollars a share to 76.”
Assertion Partly supported
Ovitz: Peter Thiel originally self-funded Palantir alongside a small DARPA investment
“And he put a ton of his own money into Palantir. He had no investors. He had a small investment from DARPA.”
Assertion Contradicted
Ovitz: Palantir's business split is roughly 60% commercial and 40% government
“And they, 6040, I'd say commercial versus government.”