why aren't all 16 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Disclosure
Tenev: Robinhood was not pressured by outside forces to halt trading
“This wasn't, you know, a value judgment or some kind of moral stance and we weren't pressured into doing it by anything other than our regulatory deposit requirements.”
Disclosure
Ryan Cohen: Committing $500M of personal capital to eBay transaction
“I'm putting five hundred million of my own money into this transaction.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Sacks: GameStop is overvalued and the trading frenzy will end badly
“Look, do I personally think GameStop is overvalued? Yes, of course. I think it's going to end very badly.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
GameStop originally invited Ryan Cohen to board to fend off activist
“Well, when it came to GameStop, originally it was a passive investment and I owned under five percent and the CEO actually reached out to me because they were fighting an activist and they wanted me to join the board.”
Disclosure
Cohen: Applying Chewy's playbook to GameStop was a 'really stupid' mistake
“I went in and I had this bias from Chewy, which is basically like everything that I learned at Chewy, I was going to apply to GameStop. And it took me about, I don't know, maybe Just over a year to realize that was really, really stupid.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Friedberg: Next GameStop cycle will be demands for government intervention
“That's the next cycle of this story. The next cycle of the story is where was the government?”
Assertion Supported
Keith Gill disclosed a nine-figure position in GameStop
“Roaring Kitty, aka Keith Gill, Just disclosed a nine-figure position in GameStop.”
Assertion Supported
Friedberg: Gabe Plotkin borrowed $2.75B from Citadel and Point72 during GameStop rally
“He had to borrow 2.75 billion dollars from Citadel and .7 just to get through his month.”
Insight
David Friedberg: The alternative to institutions is destabilizing mob rule
“What I'm most concerned about is the absolute alternative to an institution is a mob rule. And a mob rule, as we've seen, where you get cancel culture and you get you know, GameStop going through the roof and you get trial before before without a jury and tria…”
Assertion Supported
Tenev: Certain stocks in the 2021 trading frenzy had 140% short interest
“Right now you can short sell more stock than the shares that are outstanding, right? So, you know, some of these stocks had a 140% short interest, right? So more, more shares were shorted than actually outstanding.”
Disclosure
GameStop pays cash on the spot for graded PSA 8+ cards
“You can bring in a, Graded PSA card eight and above, and we will give you cash on the spot. We buy back the card, and then we either sell it in the store, or we bring it back to our warehouses, and we sell it online.”
Assertion Supported
Friedberg: GameStop stock is currently trading at an absurd 192 times EBITDA
“12 and a half billion divided by sixty-five million of EBITDA means that this stock is currently trading at about a 192 times EBITDA.”
Assertion Partly supported
Chamath: GameStop short interest was around 50% as of Friday
“The best source of data that I have access to is a company called market m a r k i t. They're quite large. But as of this Friday, the short interest was still, I think about 50% in GameStop.”
Disclosure
Cohen: Original GameStop thesis relied on upcoming console cycle
“The original thesis was that there's an upcoming console cycle and that they're probably going to survive until the upcoming console cycle and the new PlayStation and Microsoft Xbox comes out.”
Assertion Supported
Friedberg: GameStop finished FY2023 with $5.3B sales and $65M EBITDA
“GameStop finished the year, 20, 23 fiscal year, with Sales of 5.3 billion down from 5.9 billion the year before. So sales declined by 12% in the year. Adjusted EBITDA for the year was sixty five million dollars, and they have about 1.2 billion in cash.”
Assertion Supported
Friedberg: Borrowing GameStop shares reached a 30% to 60% interest rate
“In the case of GameStop, I think the cost of borrow got so high that you're basically paying 30, 40, 50, 60%, you know, interest rate to borrow GameStop shares to sell them short because there was so much interest in, in selling short.”