The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 62 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 2 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Armstrong: SEC settlement offer required delisting all cryptocurrencies except Bitcoin
“The settlement option on the table was to essentially delist everything other than Bitcoin, and so that would have been the end of the industry in the US.”
Wood: ARK Invest's bull-case price target for Bitcoin is $1.5 million
“Our official for bull case is 1.5 million.”
Yakovenko: Bitcoin should migrate to a quantum-resistant signature scheme
“We should migrate Bitcoin to a quantum resistance signature scheme.”
Friedberg: Bitcoin will ultimately become a threat to the U.S. dollar
“I do think Bitcoin fundamentally is meant to be, supposed to be, ultimately will become a real threat to the US dollar”
Bitcoin will completely replace gold if post-halving appreciation holds
“If this thing starts to get to these levels of appreciation, it is going to completely replace gold and start to become something that has transactional utility for hard assets.”
Chamath: Bitcoin ETFs are days away and Bitcoin will reach mainstream adoption in 2024
“We are probably days away from a series of ETFs being approved And so this is the moment for Bitcoin to use that old term, cross the chasm, and really see mainstream adoption, where our parents and our grandparents understand what it is, can buy it, and then d…”
Chamath: Bitcoin's baseline fundamental price is $3,500 to $5,000
“The baseline price of Bitcoin, where things seemed, you know, where rational supply and demand were meeting each other before all these, you know, five, 10,000. 3500 to 5000.”
Sacks: Buffett and Munger have a massive technology blind spot regarding Bitcoin
“Whether it's like Howard Marks or Warren Buffett or Charlie Munger, whoever they're all like great investors or whatever, but they're not technologists and it's a blind spot.”
Ray Dalio predicts central banks will not buy or hold Bitcoin
“Central banks are not going to want to buy Bitcoin and being able to hold it.”
Chamath: Central banks will create a new private cryptographic currency beyond Bitcoin
“I think the central banks will realize that there are limitations to gold and limitations to Bitcoin and will, as a result, seek out a completely new cryptographic paradigm That they can control on their balance sheet, that is fungible, that is tradable, and t…”
Chamath: Bitcoin will drop another 5% to 10% after breaking $100k
“Bitcoin is about to break through a 100,000 to the downside, which I think is a psychological barrier that probably has another five or 10% more to run.”
Yakovenko: Bitcoin will survive the collapse of major institutional holders
“I think Bitcoin is resilient to these entities collapsing. Now, it's not going to be without painful risk that in terms of like people that own Bitcoin, but the thing is, it'll survive that, and all the properties of Bitcoin that people value will remain throu…”
Chamath: Saylor turned MicroStrategy into a massively levered long Bitcoin play
“He's really running their Bitcoin position, and he's created this massively levered long Bitcoin play. He's borrowing money at essentially zero. It's his returns are bananas right now.”
Chamath: Breaking Bitcoin's SHA-256 encryption requires roughly 8,000 logical qubits
“We need about 4000 to break RSA, 20, 48. And we need about 8000 to break SHA two of 56, which is the underlying encryption framework for Bitcoin.”
Voulgaris: Bitcoin and Doge signaled election results before prediction markets
“If you just follow the price of Bitcoin, the price of Doge, the Mexican US dollar exchange ratio, all of those things, we're leading, we're getting that up way before the prediction markets started moving because those are the truest, biggest markets and the m…”
Chamath: Bitcoin will be the main inflation hedge for 50-100 years
“I think it looks like it's going to be the resounding inflation hedge asset for the next 50 or a hundred years.”
Chamath: A Trump victory will push up gold, Bitcoin, equities, and rates
“And if Trump wins, which it looks like he's increasingly going to do, and if he wins by the margins that it looks like it's going to do, you're going to see a lot of these things exacerbate. Gold's going to go up more probably. Bitcoin will probably go. The sh…”
Sacks: Winklevoss twins donating $1M each in Bitcoin to Trump
“I heard the Winklevoss brothers are actually announcing That they're donating a million dollars each in Bitcoin to you tomorrow.”
More countries will adopt Bitcoin alongside local currencies
“There is an increasing body of countries that will become dual currency. And they will look at their local currency, and then they will look at Bitcoin, and they will say both of these two things are needed.”
Sacks: Bitcoin has become a honeypot for illegal activity
“It's actually turned Bitcoin. It's something of a honeypot now, because if you used it for nefarious transactions, your transactions record in the blockchain forever, just waiting for chain analysis to find it.”
Palihapitiya: Most Bitcoin investors are day-trading, not hedging fiat risk
“Most people in Bitcoin are not trying to hedge their existing fiat currency exposure. They're just picking off people in retail and they're just day trading this thing.”
Friedberg: Bitcoin is not accessible enough to be an inflationary exit ramp
“We have a real problem if Bitcoin is the exit ramp. For an inflationary crisis, because it, it's not accessible enough. It's not easily transactable for, I'm sorry to be negative to the Bitcoin maximalists.”
Calacanis: Trudeau's asset freezes will drive Bitcoin adoption more than McDonald's
“This will do more than McDonald's accepting Bitcoin, because this is the first time like a Western democratic state is seizing people's funds like in an incredibly unfair, unnecessary way.”
Sacks: Chinese billionaires will move capital overseas via Bitcoin and assets
“If you were a Chinese billionaire looking at this landscape, your priority has got to be to get some wealth outside the country beyond the control of the CCP. You're gonna be buying Bitcoin. You're gonna be trying to get your money overseas.”
Chamath: Social Capital once held mid-single digits of all Bitcoin
“That's Bitcoin at one point, you know, we controlled low single digits, mid single digits of the entire float. And had I held on to that, that's talking about, you know, a mid deca billion dollar position.”
Chamath: Lack of privacy will probably hold Bitcoin back from ubiquitous adoption
“It's probably the biggest thing that will hold Bitcoin back from being ubiquitous.”
CZ sold his Shanghai apartment for $900K to buy Bitcoin around $600
“I sold the apartment, and for roughly 900,000 dollars, like just under a million bucks and then started buying, and I got paid in trenches, because, you know, you get a first down payment, you gotta go paid in trenches, and every trench I get, I just buy. Well…”
CZ: Binance relies heavily on remote work and paying employees in Bitcoin
“When I joined the Ben Reeves said, look, we have no company. We have no office. Everyone works remotely. We just pay everybody in Bitcoin. And so that's something I learned from that company. And I still look, that's still very heavily used in Binance today.”
Allaire: Consumers will never use Bitcoin to buy a cup of coffee
“No one's going to buy a cup of coffee with a bitcoin, etc.”
Calacanis: Everyone should allocate a low single-digit percentage to Bitcoin
“We own a decent amount of Bitcoin, and, ah, I think everybody should own, like, a low single digit percentage. It's not an investment price. I think, like, a low single digit in Bitcoin, if you lose it, so be it. If it a hundred X's from here, anything's possi…”
Sacks: Retained US-sold Bitcoin would be worth over $17 billion
“If we had held all of that, it would be worth just that the portion we sold would be worth over seventeen billion.”
Sacks claims Bitcoin is the only cryptocurrency without an issuer
“It's the only one that doesn't have an issuer, right?”
Dalio: I hold Bitcoin as a diversifier, but I am a gold guy
“Yeah, I have some. Not, not nearly as much as gold. I'm, you know, that's kind of my diversifier. I try to find what are the, I have to have some, I'm, but I'm a gold guy much more than I am a Bitcoin guy.”
Calacanis: Borrowing billions to corner Bitcoin is antithetical to Bitcoin's purpose
“Financial strategy of taking out billions of dollars in loans and then trying to corner the market and be the largest shareholder of Bitcoin, which is antithetical to the concept of Bitcoin, somebody cornering the market, also taking out loans and something th…”
Calacanis asserts MicroStrategy's valuation multiple over its Bitcoin holdings is unsustainable
“Then I looked at micro strategies and that made no sense to me that they were trading at two, three, four times The book value of their Bitcoin. And I think that's not sustainable.”
Paul Tudor Jones is long gold, Bitcoin, commodities, and the NASDAQ
“I'm long gold. I'm long Bitcoin. I think commodities are so ridiculously under owned. So I'm long commodities. I think most young people find their inflation hedges via the NASDAQ. That's also been great. It's probably some combination. I probably have some ba…”
Friedberg: Bitcoin is not used for transactions, but acts as store of value
“I think the real question is in the last couple of years, have we really seen a change in Bitcoin? Being used for transactions or for commerce in any meaningful way. I think the answer is still likely not. And it's really a stored value system and it's become …”
Palihapitiya invested up to $30M into Bitcoin at $50 per coin
“In a three hundred million dollar fund, I put 25 or thirty million dollars into Bitcoin at 50 bucks a coin.”
Sacks: Oppressive government policies increase Bitcoin's value as digital gold
“I think that sort of digital gold is a phenomenal use case of Bitcoin, and the more oppressive all these countries become, the more they increase the value of that use case.”
Palihapitiya: Any fatal Bitcoin exploit would have happened in its first three years
“The way that it would have happened in the first two or three years.”
Calacanis: China will successfully eliminate Bitcoin within its borders
“They're not going to stop Bitcoin in the West, but they will stop it in China.”
Sacks: The May 2021 Bitcoin crash is a good buying opportunity
“This is probably a pretty good buying opportunity. We've seen these crashes and Bitcoin many, many times over the years, it plummets down and then it goes back up and it eventually goes back up and reaches a new peak. So this is probably a pretty good entry po…”
Sacks: China will not succeed in stamping out Bitcoin
“And China can do its best to try and stamp it out, but I don't think they'll be successful at that.”
Sacks: Epstein asked Jason Calacanis for intros to Bitcoin founders in 2011
“What happened was that Jason hosted an episode of This Week in Startups, roughly, I think, in 2011 with a couple of the Bitcoin core founders, and then Epstein reached out to him for an introduction to those people.”
CZ: No matter when you buy Bitcoin, you always feel late
“No, it doesn't matter when you get into Bitcoin, you always feel late. Right. Because everyone you talk to has in the Bitcoin industry has bought before you.”