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Amazon Web Services

also referred to as: aws

part of Amazon

16 statements across 13 episodes · 5 bullish · 6 bearish · 7 people on the record · first statement May 1, 2021 by Chamath Palihapitiya · said 158 times in 78 episodes since 2020 · across every show →

Mentions by year

brought up most by Jason Calacanis (56), Chamath Palihapitiya (47), David Friedberg (22), David Sacks (14), Brad Gerstner (4), Thomas Laffont (3), Jensen Huang (2), Gavin Baker (2)

tap a year for its mentions
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010202020202120222023202420252026episodes it came up in
001.5103202020202120222023202420252026episodesmentions per episode
2026 37 mentions in 19 episodes 2 per episode
2025 38 mentions in 13 episodes 3 per episode
2024 30 mentions in 18 episodes 2 per episode
2023 21 mentions in 11 episodes 2 per episode
2022 5 mentions in 2 episodes 3 per episode
2021 25 mentions in 13 episodes 2 per episode
2020 2 mentions in 2 episodes 1 per episode

every mention, scene by scene, with the transcript →

Everything said about Amazon Web Services, oldest first

May 1, 2021 bullish
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Chamath: Amazon's advertising business will surpass AWS within three years
“It'll be bigger than AWS in three years at this rate.”
Chamath Palihapitiya May 1, 2021 ▶ 1:14:18 E31: Post-vaccination virtue signaling, pandemic lessons, immigration, Caitlyn Jenner for CA & more
Oct 7, 2022 negative
Opinion
Sacks: Infrastructure providers and banks must not engage in viewpoint discrimination
“At the level of pipes, like an AWS, like a cloud flare, like a PayPal, like the ISPs, like the banks, they are not doing any. Content moderation, or they have no legitimate reason to be doing content moderation. None of those companies should be allowed to eng…”
David Sacks Oct 7, 2022 ▶ 1:16:26 E99: Cheating scandals, Twitter updates, rapid AI advancements, Biden's pardon, Section 230 & more
Dec 23, 2023 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Chamath: AI will be 10x to 100x more deflationary for startups than AWS
“The economic impact of AI is so massively deflationary. It may be An order or two orders of magnitude more deflationary Then AWS was, and that was massively accretive to the startup economy.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Dec 23, 2023 ▶ 1:06:08 E158: Global trade disrupted, Adobe/Figma canceled, realtors sued, Trump blocked
Feb 9, 2024 negative
Opinion
Chamath: AWS makes building production AI apps unfeasibly expensive
“For example, like AWS, if you look inside of how expensive it is to build an app there, I've tried, even when they give you credits, the credits they give you aren't sufficient enough to even pay for half the power. And then the way that they schedule and the …”
Chamath Palihapitiya Feb 9, 2024 ▶ 54:25 E165: Vision Pro: use or lose? Meta vs Snap, SaaS recovery, AI investing, rolling real estate crisis
Apr 12, 2024 neutral
Opinion
Friedberg: Enterprise cloud market has no lock-in for AWS, Azure, or GCP
“The cloud is a wide open competitive market right now. Like there is no AWS lock-in in this market. There's no Azure lock-in. There's no GCP lock-in”
David Friedberg Apr 12, 2024 ▶ 16:21 E174: Inflation stays hot, AI disclosure bill, Drone warfare, defense startups & more
Jul 23, 2024 negative
Opinion
Calacanis: Dropbox made a critical error building its own data centers
“Dropbox made this critical error. I don't know if you remember that Saks where they stood up their own data centers instead of, you know, they were just scared to have their data at, I guess, AWS or whatever it was.”
Jason Calacanis Jul 23, 2024 ▶ 11:17 The Besties Take Napa | All-In Special
Jun 21, 2025 bullish
Opinion
Lafont: Synthetic index of AWS, Azure, and GCP is all investors need
“Well, I think all four of us would agree that if we could synthetically own AWS, Azure, and GCP, if I could somehow automagically create an index of all three of those businesses, right, over the next five years, you wouldn't need to own anything else.”
Thomas Laffont Jun 21, 2025 ▶ 1:36:44 IPOs and SPACs are Back, Mag 7 Showdown, Zuck on Tilt, Apple's Fumble, GENIUS Act passes Senate
Oct 24, 2025 neutral
Assertion Partly supported
Friedberg compares revenue run rates and growth for AWS, Azure, and GCP
“AWS has a hundred twenty-four billion dollar revenue run rate. Microsoft, one hundred twenty billion, and Google Cloud, fifty four billion. But AWS, which is slightly larger than Microsoft, is only growing 17% year over year. Microsoft's 26% year over year, an…”
David Friedberg Oct 24, 2025 ▶ 30:03 NBA Gambling Scandal, Billionaire Tax, Tesla's Future, Amazon Robots, AWS Outage, Dangerous AI Bias
Oct 24, 2025 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Friedberg predicts recent AWS outage will accelerate enterprise multi-cloud adoption
“But the outage that happened this week, I think, starts to highlight for folks that they can't and shouldn't have a dependency on a single cloud service provider, and will only accelerate the diversification of companies into the other clouds.”
David Friedberg Oct 24, 2025 ▶ 31:03 NBA Gambling Scandal, Billionaire Tax, Tesla's Future, Amazon Robots, AWS Outage, Dangerous AI Bias
Oct 24, 2025 negative
Assertion Supported
Calacanis notes recent AWS outage crippled 2,000 companies for 15 hours
“Monday, massive AWS outage, 2000 companies, four million users unable to function on the internet for half a day, 15 hours, 20 hours.”
Jason Calacanis Oct 24, 2025 ▶ 28:53 NBA Gambling Scandal, Billionaire Tax, Tesla's Future, Amazon Robots, AWS Outage, Dangerous AI Bias
Oct 24, 2025 neutral
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Palihapitiya predicts AWS, Azure, and Google Cloud will split market evenly
“So there's all these reasons why eventually all these three big companies will converge effectively, roughly a third. We're going to debate the path to get there, but that's where they'll end up.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Oct 24, 2025 ▶ 33:04 NBA Gambling Scandal, Billionaire Tax, Tesla's Future, Amazon Robots, AWS Outage, Dangerous AI Bias
Nov 4, 2025 neutral
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Tareq Amin: Humain pays power tariffs equivalent to Google and AWS
“My rates, my tariff is equivalent to what Google would get to what AWS get.”
Tareq Amin Nov 4, 2025 ▶ 14:48 Inside Saudi Arabia’s AI Ambition: Tareq Amin on Building a New Tech Superpower
Mar 6, 2026
Disclosure
Chamath: Software company's AI costs tripled since November 2025
“Our costs have more than tripled since November of 25. Between the inference cost that we pay AWS, which is ginormous, between our cost with cursor, between anthropic, we are just spending millions.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Mar 6, 2026 ▶ 56:01 War with Iran + Pentagon vs Anthropic with Under Secretary of War Emil Michael
Mar 13, 2026 negative
Assertion Contradicted
Chamath: Agent-written code caused three or four SEV-1 outages at AWS
“Why does Amazon issue an edict that says you cannot use this stuff inside of AWS unless a human now reviews and approves it? Because what happened? They had three or four SEV-ONE faults from a bunch of code that was written by agents that brought down AWS.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Mar 13, 2026 ▶ 34:14 Iran War, Oil Shock, Off Ramps, AI's Revenue Explosion and PR Nightmare
Mar 19, 2026 bullish
Prediction Held up
Huang: AWS will purchase 1 million Nvidia chips in coming years
“In the case of AWS, I think they just announced, I think it was yesterday, that they're gonna buy a million chips in the next couple years.”
Jensen Huang Mar 19, 2026 ▶ 44:20 Jensen Huang: Nvidia's Future, Physical AI, Rise of the Agent, Inference Explosion, AI PR Crisis
Jun 4, 2026 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Laffont: Top AI platform revenue could surpass Microsoft by 2028
“We estimate that only, not only is it bigger than Azure, but by the end of the year it could be bigger than AWS and potentially bigger than all of Microsoft. By twenty-twenty-eight.”
Thomas Laffont Jun 4, 2026 ▶ 6:56 Thomas Laffont: The $4T AI IPO Wave Is Coming… and We’ve Never Seen Anything Like It
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