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Google

also referred to as: alphabet

includes Google Search, Google Cloud, Google DeepMind, Google Bard, Google Chrome, Google TPU, Google Ads, Google Workspace, Google Gemini, Google AdSense, Google Play, Google Maps and 46 more

299 statements across 132 episodes · 100 bullish · 100 bearish · 32 people on the record · first statement Mar 15, 2020 by Chamath Palihapitiya · said 3,242 times in 350 episodes since 2020 · across every show →

Mentions by year, the whole family

brought up most by Jason Calacanis (1218), David Friedberg (717), Chamath Palihapitiya (574), David Sacks (300), Sundar Pichai (41), Brad Gerstner (36), Gavin Baker (26), Thomas Laffont (18)

tap a year for its mentions
00500501,0001002020202120222023202420252026episodesmentions
0501002020202120222023202420252026episodes it came up in
001050201002020202120222023202420252026episodesmentions per episode
2026 389 mentions in 57 episodes 7 per episode
2025 790 mentions in 83 episodes 10 per episode
2024 858 mentions in 57 episodes 15 per episode
2023 602 mentions in 51 episodes 12 per episode
2022 298 mentions in 48 episodes 6 per episode
2021 234 mentions in 40 episodes 6 per episode
2020 71 mentions in 14 episodes 5 per episode

every mention, scene by scene, with the transcript →

Everything said about Google, oldest first

Mar 15, 2020 negative
Opinion
Chamath: Facebook and Google destroyed traditional journalism
“We're in the business of editorializing, and we've been in that business since basically Facebook and Google, you know, Kind of destroyed the ability for journalism as it stands to remain intact.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Mar 15, 2020 ▶ 20:56 E0: COVID-19 Political, Economic & Social Ramifications featuring David Friedberg
Jul 11, 2020 negative
Opinion
The New York Times adopted anti-Trump bias to drive digital subscriptions
“I just thought the New York Times was just way too biased, and that they picked a side in order for their business to survive. And I actually believe that. I believe they picked the side of Trump, I'm sorry, the side of anti-Trump in order to get subscriptions…”
Jason Calacanis Jul 11, 2020 ▶ 55:41 E5: WHO's incompetence, kicking off Cold War II, China's grand plan, 100X'ing American efficiency
Jul 31, 2020 positive
Assertion Supported
Friedberg: Google's $100M acquisition of Applied Semantics built its revenue engine
“I left Google in in 2006, and a lot of the infrastructure that makes Google's you know, revenue engine was acquired. You know, we bought a company called Applied Semantics for a hundred million bucks, or a hundred something million dollars at the time which ul…”
David Friedberg Jul 31, 2020 ▶ 27:17 E6: Big Tech antitrust aftermath, potential effects of an M&A clampdown on Silicon Valley & more
Jul 31, 2020 bearish
Prediction Held up
Chamath predicts Amazon will face Facebook-level antitrust scrutiny within 5-10 years
“Amazon today I don't think is at risk just because its end market is so big, but I think within five or 10 years it definitely will be looked at through the same lens as Facebook and Google and actually just those two.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Jul 31, 2020 ▶ 1:10:15 E6: Big Tech antitrust aftermath, potential effects of an M&A clampdown on Silicon Valley & more
Jul 31, 2020 bearish
Opinion
Chamath ranks Facebook at highest regulatory risk and Amazon at lowest
“If you had to stack rank to risk, I think Facebook is number one at the top of the list. Then I think it's Google. Then I think it's Apple. And then I think far, far, far down is Amazon.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Jul 31, 2020 ▶ 10:50 E6: Big Tech antitrust aftermath, potential effects of an M&A clampdown on Silicon Valley & more
Jul 31, 2020 negative
Opinion
Sacks: Amazon is the scariest monopoly because it endlessly expands into adjacencies
“I think he's the scariest monopolist out of the whole bunch. You know, if you look at kind of Amazon versus say Google or Facebook or Apple, I mean, those other companies are sort of sticking to their original footprint. Whereas Amazon keeps expanding into new…”
David Sacks Jul 31, 2020 ▶ 1:13:30 E6: Big Tech antitrust aftermath, potential effects of an M&A clampdown on Silicon Valley & more
Oct 16, 2020 bearish
Prediction Open · timeframe Oct 2025
Chamath: Section 230 protections for major tech platforms are numbered
“But if I was a betting man, which I am, I think that section two 30 is, their days are numbered, and Facebook, Twitter, Google, all these companies are going to have to look more like newspapers and television stations.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Oct 16, 2020 ▶ 7:15 E10: Twitter & Facebook botch censorship (again), the publisher vs. distributor debate & more
Dec 4, 2020 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Friedberg: AlphaFold will significantly extend human lifespan through drug discovery
“And the output of that is going to be an incredible new tool for drug discovery that is going to extend human lifespan in an incredible way.”
David Friedberg Dec 4, 2020 ▶ 1:24:45 E14: Salesforce acquires Slack, DeepMind’s AlphaFold breakthrough, Trust Fund Socialists & more
Dec 4, 2020 neutral
Assertion Supported
Friedberg: Alphabet spends $4B-$5B annually on Other Bets
“Alphabet's burning four to five billion dollars a year on their quote unquote other bets line.”
David Friedberg Dec 4, 2020 ▶ 34:59 E14: Salesforce acquires Slack, DeepMind’s AlphaFold breakthrough, Trust Fund Socialists & more
Dec 18, 2020 negative
Assertion Supported
Sacks: Major tech platforms censor posts contradicting the WHO
“Google, YouTube, and even sites like LinkedIn or Nextdoor are now censoring People's statements if they contradict the WHO, apparently without irony, because nobody has contradicted the WHO more than the WHO itself.”
David Sacks Dec 18, 2020 ▶ 35:47 E15: “The Besties” All-In’s inaugural award show covering the best, worst & most memorable of 2020
Jan 11, 2021 positive
Opinion
Friedberg: Big Tech scale benefits consumers and shouldn't be broken up
“I also think consumers benefit from the scale that they operate at. And I don't think that they should be broken up. And I think that there's economic value to having Google be at the scale it's at and Amazon being at the scale it's at and Facebook being a sca…”
David Friedberg Jan 11, 2021 ▶ 1:27:19 E17: Big Tech bans Trump, ramifications for the First Amendment & the open Internet
Jan 23, 2021 neutral
Assertion Supported
Friedberg: Google used open-source Android to secure search dominance
“Google made Android open source. And by making the Android operating system open source, They were able to have their own forked versions that they were able to install on phones with partners like HTC and Samsung and others that they could then have their sea…”
David Friedberg Jan 23, 2021 ▶ 26:12 E18: Inauguration talk, breaking down the $1.9T stimulus, the case for recalling Gavin Newsom & more
Apr 17, 2021 neutral
Assertion Supported
Chamath: Average employee tenure is under 3.5 years at Uber, Tesla, Google
“The average tenure at Uber is 1.8 years. The average tenure at Tesla is 2.1 years. The average tenure at Google is 3.2 years.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Apr 17, 2021 ▶ 32:00 E29: Coinbase goes public, direct listings vs. IPOs, unions & more with Bestie Guestie Brad Gerstner
May 22, 2021 bearish
Opinion
Palihapitiya: Google could probably be run by 2,000 employees
“I've always thought like that company could probably run by 2000 people, but you know, there's 200,000 people. So the 198 other thousand of them need to find something to do.”
Chamath Palihapitiya May 22, 2021 ▶ 15:14 E33: Apple’s hypocrisy, America fails math, crypto’s regulatory correction, Clubhouse, UFOs & more
Jun 13, 2021 negative
Opinion
Sacks: Tech giants fear remote work hides thousands of unproductive employees
“And I think what this really comes down to is a fear on the part of Apple and Google and Facebook. They've got thousands of employees who aren't really working and are going to be able to completely hide.”
David Sacks Jun 13, 2021 ▶ 46:12 E35: Biogen's controversial Alzheimer's drug approval, the billionaire space race, Bitcoin & more
Jun 18, 2021
Assertion Partly supported
Chamath: Google and Facebook CPMs rose 28% to 30% in Q1 2021
“For the first time in the last quarter, both of these two companies, and they were the only two of big tech that announced an increase in pricing, right? They saw a diminishing of CPM inventory. And so they had to figure out ways to grow inventory as users sta…”
Chamath Palihapitiya Jun 18, 2021 ▶ 14:00 E36: New FTC Chair, breaking up big tech, government silent spying, Jon Stewart, wildfires & more
Jul 3, 2021 bearish
Opinion
Sacks: Amazon, Google, and Apple are clearly monopolies or duopolies
“Those companies are clearly Monopolies are duopolies in their spaces.”
David Sacks Jul 3, 2021 ▶ 1:15:49 E38: Bestie brawl, Robinhood's $70M fine & S-1, Delta variant, next gen candidates & more
Jul 3, 2021 positive
Opinion
Friedberg: Google deserves credit for virtually all of YouTube's success
“99.999% of YouTube success is because of Google, not because of YouTube.”
David Friedberg Jul 3, 2021 ▶ 1:16:48 E38: Bestie brawl, Robinhood's $70M fine & S-1, Delta variant, next gen candidates & more
Jul 23, 2021 negative
Opinion
Chamath: Google, Facebook, and Amazon hinder constructive capitalism
“I generally think that companies like Google and Facebook and Amazon unfortunately do not allow The constructive form of capitalism that people want in today's society.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Jul 23, 2021 ▶ 57:14 E41: Vaccine policy, Big Tech, DeepMind's latest breakthrough, wealth creation, opportunity & more
Jul 23, 2021 bearish
Opinion
Chamath: Google wastes enormous capital on trash projects
“I think Google has been an incredible company. They make money hand over fist, they waste an enormous amount of money and all kinds of trash.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Jul 23, 2021 ▶ 57:00 E41: Vaccine policy, Big Tech, DeepMind's latest breakthrough, wealth creation, opportunity & more
Jul 23, 2021 positive
Assertion Supported
Friedberg: Google invested over $1B in Waymo before self-driving was accepted
“Look at what Google did with Waymo. They put over a billion dollars in that project before everyone woke up and said, my God, self-driving is real.”
David Friedberg Jul 23, 2021 ▶ 1:01:21 E41: Vaccine policy, Big Tech, DeepMind's latest breakthrough, wealth creation, opportunity & more
Jul 23, 2021 neutral
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Friedberg claims DeepMind generates tens of billions in annual Google revenue
“There's a lot of work that DeepMind does to optimize ad targeting and ad spending and all this stuff. And they make tens of billions of dollars of incremental revenue for Google per year based on those capabilities.”
David Friedberg Jul 23, 2021 ▶ 50:36 E41: Vaccine policy, Big Tech, DeepMind's latest breakthrough, wealth creation, opportunity & more
Sep 14, 2021 positive
Assertion Contradicted
Chamath: UnitedHealth stock outperformed Facebook and Google over the past decade
“If you look at the stock prices of these companies, you would have made more money being long United Healthcare than you would have been owning Facebook, Google, any of these other tech companies in the last decade.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Sep 14, 2021 ▶ 26:49 E46: False Ivermectin narratives, regulatory grift, wartime mentality in solving issues & more
Oct 30, 2021 bullish
Opinion
Chamath: Google is the most incredible money-making machine ever created
“There is no better business in the world than Google. Single-handedly par excellence, the most incredible money-making machine that's ever been created, and a close second, as it turns out, is Microsoft.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Oct 30, 2021 ▶ 58:50 E53: Wealth tax, inflation as a capital allocator, big tech earnings, paternity leave & more
Oct 30, 2021
Opinion
Friedberg: Zuckerberg is much more product-driven than Larry Page was
“No, I think he's way more active and driven in terms of product direction than Larry ever was. So I don't think they're the same person and I wouldn't like in these two.”
David Friedberg Oct 30, 2021 ▶ 1:10:34 E53: Wealth tax, inflation as a capital allocator, big tech earnings, paternity leave & more
Nov 6, 2021 bullish
Disclosure
Palihapitiya is long Microsoft and Google, short rest of big tech
“I'm still long Microsoft and Google and short the rest of big tech, so I'm fine with it.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Nov 6, 2021 ▶ 7:48 E54: Spread trading big tech, capital allocation, Zillow's misfire, Progressives suffer losses
Nov 6, 2021 positive
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Chamath: John Doerr never sold distributed Amazon shares
“He had never sold a single share of Amazon that was distributed to him, and he had only sold a handful of shares of Google only to fund future capital requirements at Kleiner at the time.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Nov 6, 2021 ▶ 25:42 E54: Spread trading big tech, capital allocation, Zillow's misfire, Progressives suffer losses
Jan 8, 2022 positive
Assertion Contradicted
Chamath: Facebook, Google, Apple, Microsoft, Amazon raised under $250M combined
“Facebook, Google, Apple, Microsoft and Amazon raised collectively less than two hundred and fifty million dollars.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Jan 8, 2022 ▶ 54:02 E62: Elizabeth Holmes verdict, fraud origins & takeaways, navigating "The Great Markdown" & more
Jan 22, 2022
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Sachs: Facebook and Google do not hold a dominant position in tech labor
“Facebook and Google, no matter how powerful monopolies they may be, they don't have a dominant position in the labor market. This is not true. They're competing for the same engineers that every tech company is competing for.”
David Sacks Jan 22, 2022 ▶ 30:53 E64: Antitrust standards & enforcement, tech repricing, lab leak obfuscation, E63 reactions & more
Feb 5, 2022 neutral
Assertion Supported
Chamath: Google pays Apple $15B-$20B annually for search default status
“They pay Apple 15 or twenty billion dollars a year.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Feb 5, 2022 ▶ 49:08 E66: $FB's big drop, Rogan/Spotify mess, Xi/Putin meetup & supply chain issues with Ryan Petersen
Feb 5, 2022 negative
Insight
Friedberg: Internet platforms are de facto publishers, not neutral access tools
“And in all these cases, from Google, to YouTube, to Twitter, and now to Spotify, the idea of being just an access, a platform for access is proving to be wrong. All of them are de facto publishers.”
David Friedberg Feb 5, 2022 ▶ 1:12:35 E66: $FB's big drop, Rogan/Spotify mess, Xi/Putin meetup & supply chain issues with Ryan Petersen
Feb 12, 2022 bullish
Opinion
Chamath names Microsoft and Alphabet as the definitive Big Tech stock winners
“I think that Microsoft and Google are far and away the winners. Far and away the winners.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Feb 12, 2022 ▶ 1:00:56 E67: Revisiting Rogan, Canadian truckers' protest, fusion breakthrough, $MSFT's savvy move & more
Feb 12, 2022 positive
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Chamath: Microsoft's open app store strategy will pressure Apple and Google
“And I think this is a first step towards a really interesting play that Microsoft could pull, which is essentially to scorch the earth of app stores, which is Google's and Apple's really big money printer to make a completely open permissible platform with ver…”
Chamath Palihapitiya Feb 12, 2022 ▶ 1:02:34 E67: Revisiting Rogan, Canadian truckers' protest, fusion breakthrough, $MSFT's savvy move & more
Apr 16, 2022 neutral
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Sacks: Biden FTC would allow Big Tech to buy Twitter over Musk
“I think this administration does not want to see Twitter become a free speech company again. And so the political winds will blow towards letting, I think, Twitter be acquired by a big tech company, even if it means big tech gets bigger. Wait a second. So I th…”
David Sacks Apr 16, 2022 ▶ 26:49 E76: Elon vs. Twitter
May 30, 2022 bearish
Opinion
Hershenson: Former Google employees have a surprisingly low founder success rate
“And actually, I think the rate of success of people that came out of founder of Google, relatively speaking, is not that high.”
Mar Hershenson May 30, 2022 ▶ 26:48 #AIS: Pear VC’s Mar Hershenson on making successful founders
May 30, 2022 neutral
Assertion Contradicted
Sacks: Pre-IPO PayPal employees created more unicorns than all Google alumni
“There are more unicorns founded by ex-PayPal people than ex-Google people, even though at sort of the PayPal mafia, if you define it as the pre-IPO group of people who worked at PayPal, there were only a couple of hundred in the Bay Area, whereas Google had li…”
David Sacks May 30, 2022 ▶ 27:15 #AIS: Pear VC’s Mar Hershenson on making successful founders
Jun 7, 2022 negative
Opinion
Early Silicon Valley was a monoculture of elite university and tech alumni
“And in Silicon Valley at the time, you know, it really, there is a very monocultural aspect of, you know, folks from a few schools, you know, folks having worked at a few companies and I had neither, you know, I worked, I went to Waterloo, which is in Canada, …”
Chamath Palihapitiya Jun 7, 2022 ▶ 55:46 #AIS: Bestie AMA with Valor's Antonio Gracias
Jun 23, 2022 negative
Opinion
Calacanis: Google employees are cowards for refusing Department of Defense contracts
“The people at Google are cowards for not doing DOD contracts.”
Jason Calacanis Jun 23, 2022 ▶ 54:27 #AIS: Palmer Luckey on Anduril
Aug 20, 2022
Insight
Sacks: Low-margin real estate businesses cannot survive unchecked spending
“You can get away with a lack of spending discipline if you're a 90% gross margin business like a Google, but when you're a real estate business who's got real cogs, not having spending discipline is actually a problem.”
David Sacks Aug 20, 2022 ▶ 20:04 E92: Adam Neumann's second act, a16z's $350M bet, housing policy, Inflation Reduction Act & more
Sep 10, 2022 negative
Assertion Contradicted
Friedberg: DTC marketing costs on Facebook and Google have doubled or tripled
“Cause in the last year, the cost of DTC direct to consumer marketing on Facebook and Google. Double, tripled. And a lot of the unit economics are falling apart on D to C businesses because of it you know, costs a lot more to acquire the customer than you make …”
David Friedberg Sep 10, 2022 ▶ 1:11:23 E95: Winter is Coming, Europe's energy crisis, Kim Kardashian's new PE firm & more
Sep 17, 2022 positive
Opinion
Friedberg: Google acquiring YouTube is the best managed acquisition ever
“It's been the greatest managed acquisition of all time, I should say.”
David Friedberg Sep 17, 2022 ▶ 25:31 E96: Adobe acquires Figma for $20B, TPB SPAC, FedEx CEO's recession warning, macro picture & more
Oct 7, 2022 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Sacks: Political search downranking will not spark a viable Google competitor
“Nobody's going to create a new Google because they're down ranking, you know, one to 10% of the search results for political reasons.”
David Sacks Oct 7, 2022 ▶ 1:23:02 E99: Cheating scandals, Twitter updates, rapid AI advancements, Biden's pardon, Section 230 & more
Oct 29, 2022
Disclosure
Friedberg: Early Google engineers volunteered on weekends to tag porn
“When I worked at Google, we used to have pizza weekends, where you would go into the office on the weekends, they give you free pizza, and everyone would tag, you know, you'd watch porn, and you would tag porn.”
David Friedberg Oct 29, 2022 ▶ 18:00 E102: Elon closes Twitter deal, $META uncertainty, Zuck's historic bet, big tech decline & more
Oct 29, 2022 neutral
Assertion Partly supported
Friedberg: Alphabet spends one-tenth of Meta's revenue proportion on side bets
“So on a relative basis, Alphabet is spending One 10th of what Meta is per dollar earned or top line revenue earned on their other bets category.”
David Friedberg Oct 29, 2022 ▶ 58:42 E102: Elon closes Twitter deal, $META uncertainty, Zuck's historic bet, big tech decline & more
Nov 19, 2022 bearish
Prediction Held up
Friedberg: Alphabet will inevitably lay off 5% to 10% of employees
“It is inevitable. There's going to be some cutting. So I think that there will likely be some reduction five percent, 10%, 10, 10,000 employees.”
David Friedberg Nov 19, 2022 ▶ 1:13:34 E105: Tech culture wars: Elon vs. SBF, Sabotaging Republicans with Trump
Nov 19, 2022 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Friedberg: Killing failed projects would add $600B to Alphabet's market cap
“One of the challenges I see with Alphabet is that they are so good at bringing the best talent to work on these innovation problems, but where they're not good is saying, you know what, this isn't working, it's time to move on. And if they did just that, if th…”
David Friedberg Nov 19, 2022 ▶ 1:09:11 E105: Tech culture wars: Elon vs. SBF, Sabotaging Republicans with Trump
Dec 3, 2022
Disclosure
Palihapitiya: Has built AI silicon for six years with ex-Google engineers
“I've been spending a lot of time Learning about this area, six years ago, a team that I partnered with who was at Google that built TPU, we've been building silicon for this space, so we've been kind of going from the ground up for the last six years.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Dec 3, 2022 ▶ 1:21:27 E106: SBF's media strategy, FTX culpability, ChatGPT, SaaS slowdown & more
Dec 3, 2022 negative
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Friedberg: Google search could be radically disrupted by natural language chat AI
“Google's core product, their search engine could be radically disrupted. . By an alternative set system or set of systems that have more of a natural language chat interface”
David Friedberg Dec 3, 2022 ▶ 1:18:32 E106: SBF's media strategy, FTX culpability, ChatGPT, SaaS slowdown & more
Dec 3, 2022 neutral
Assertion Contradicted
Friedberg: Google uses DeepMind for ad optimization and YouTube video ranking
“My understanding is DeepMind has been applied to everything from ads, ad, ad optimization, but also the ranking on YouTube videos to get people more engagement on YouTube, et cetera.”
David Friedberg Dec 3, 2022 ▶ 1:19:14 E106: SBF's media strategy, FTX culpability, ChatGPT, SaaS slowdown & more
Dec 10, 2022 neutral
Assertion Supported
Friedberg: Google Search ranking relies on significant manual intervention
“And it was always the secret at Google. How did the search results get ranked? And I can tell you, it's not just a pure algorithm that there was a lot of manual intervention, a lot of manual work.”
David Friedberg Dec 10, 2022 ▶ 14:40 E107: The Twitter Files Parts 1-2: shadow banning, story suppression, interference & more
Dec 16, 2022 negative
Opinion
Friedberg: Google could cut 75% of its headcount and keep operating
“I had said that there could probably be a significant headcount reduction of like, 75% at Google, and the business could keep operating.”
David Friedberg Dec 16, 2022 ▶ 47:54 E108: Doxing debate, Nuclear fusion breakthrough, state of the markets & more
Dec 24, 2022 bullish
Prediction Partly held up
Calacanis: Microsoft will release an OpenAI search engine impacting Google
“Microsoft, I think is going to release a and there's a prediction as well, a search engine with Open AI, that has a significant impact on Google's franchise.”
Jason Calacanis Dec 24, 2022 ▶ 29:33 E109: 2022 Bestie Awards Live from Twitter HQ
Jan 13, 2023 bullish
Prediction Held up
Chamath: Google will open source AI models to protect search
“I think that Google will open source their models because the most important thing that Google can do is reinforce the value of search. And the best way to do that is to scorch the earth with these models, which is to make them widely available and as free as …”
Chamath Palihapitiya Jan 13, 2023 ▶ 36:04 E111: Microsoft to invest $10B in OpenAI, generative AI hype, America's over-classification problem
Jan 27, 2023 negative
Opinion
Chamath: Apple and Google hold app store duopoly and search monopoly
“And so domestically in the United States and Western Europe, there's a de facto duopoly, complete control, completely inflexible, inelastic pricing. That is a monopoly. And then separately for search in the United States, it is also an effective monopoly.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Jan 27, 2023 ▶ 22:39 E113: DOJ tries to break up Google, vaccine questions, Ukraine escalation & more
Jan 27, 2023 negative
Opinion
Calacanis: Google exhibits monopoly behavior in search by self-preferencing
“No, I, there is monopoly behavior going on at Google, obviously, with search and putting their own content and services up top, and to Shemad's point, like, that's probably the easier target.”
Jason Calacanis Jan 27, 2023 ▶ 12:13 E113: DOJ tries to break up Google, vaccine questions, Ukraine escalation & more
Jan 27, 2023 bullish
Disclosure
Friedberg: Portfolio companies moved ad spend from Google and Meta to Amazon
“I know this from experience on a couple boards. I'm at where companies stopped spending on Facebook and Google and just started spending exclusively on Amazon.”
David Friedberg Jan 27, 2023 ▶ 16:19 E113: DOJ tries to break up Google, vaccine questions, Ukraine escalation & more
Jan 27, 2023 bearish
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Chamath predicts the DOJ antitrust lawsuit against Google will fail
“But by focusing on this, I think it's going to get deconstructed. It's going to fail.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Jan 27, 2023 ▶ 6:36 E113: DOJ tries to break up Google, vaccine questions, Ukraine escalation & more
Jan 27, 2023 negative
Opinion
Chamath: DOJ antitrust suits contort law instead of updating legislation
“I just feel these lawsuits right now are bordering on the mean spirited because these things have been tried. They've generally failed. And so the real solution, it always goes back to this and it's, Ugly and messy is you need to rewrite the actual laws to ref…”
Chamath Palihapitiya Jan 27, 2023 ▶ 14:32 E113: DOJ tries to break up Google, vaccine questions, Ukraine escalation & more
Jan 27, 2023 neutral
Assertion Partly supported
Chamath Palihapitiya cites market data showing Google holds 26.5% of digital ads
“Google controls 26.5% of a market. 43.4% of that market is with a diverse group of others. Meta has 18.4%, and Amazon has 11.7.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Jan 27, 2023 ▶ 4:47 E113: DOJ tries to break up Google, vaccine questions, Ukraine escalation & more
Jan 27, 2023 negative
What-if
Chamath: US government should have targeted Google search instead of ad tech
“If I were the US government, I would have actually focused on search because search is a monopoly for Google.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Jan 27, 2023 ▶ 6:06 E113: DOJ tries to break up Google, vaccine questions, Ukraine escalation & more
Jan 27, 2023 negative
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Friedberg: Breaking up Google's ad business will cause publishers to earn less
“And if you try and break this up, and if you actually do try and, you know, get into the weeds of this whole system and change it, the publishers ultimately will make less money.”
David Friedberg Jan 27, 2023 ▶ 11:06 E113: DOJ tries to break up Google, vaccine questions, Ukraine escalation & more
Jan 27, 2023 negative
Opinion
Chamath: DOJ antitrust lawsuit against Google is ill-founded and anti-entrepreneur
“Yeah, I think that this is a totally ill-founded lawsuit, and I think it just shows more of the personal enmity and anger that some people in the US government has towards entrepreneurs and entrepreneurship than anything else.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Jan 27, 2023 ▶ 4:03 E113: DOJ tries to break up Google, vaccine questions, Ukraine escalation & more
Feb 4, 2023
Assertion Contradicted
Chamath: Big tech giants raised under $250M total before IPOs
“Less than a quarter billion dollars.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Feb 4, 2023 ▶ 51:49 E114: Markets update: whipsaw macro picture, big tech, startup mass extinction event, VC reckoning
Feb 11, 2023 negative
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Sacks: Generative AI search could disrupt search advertising monetization models
“I think the whole monetization model might change.”
David Sacks Feb 11, 2023 ▶ 48:39 E115: The AI Search Wars: Google vs. Microsoft, Nordstream report, State of the Union
Feb 11, 2023
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Palihapitiya predicts Google's default search deal with Apple could cost $25 billion
“This year, this renegotiation for that deal could mean that Apple gets paid twenty-five billion dollars for giving away that right to Google.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Feb 11, 2023 ▶ 45:40 E115: The AI Search Wars: Google vs. Microsoft, Nordstream report, State of the Union
Feb 11, 2023 negative
Opinion
Calacanis argues Google has ten times more employees than needed
“And they have 10 times as many employees as they need to run the core business.”
Jason Calacanis Feb 11, 2023 ▶ 44:18 E115: The AI Search Wars: Google vs. Microsoft, Nordstream report, State of the Union
Feb 11, 2023 bullish
Assertion Contradicted
Palihapitiya: Google will generate nearly $100B free cash flow in 2023
“This is a business that this year will do almost a hundred billion dollars of free cashflow.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Feb 11, 2023 ▶ 43:46 E115: The AI Search Wars: Google vs. Microsoft, Nordstream report, State of the Union
Feb 11, 2023 neutral
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Friedberg: Google historically used bounce back rate as key quality metric
“So at Google, we used to have a key metric was the bounce back rate.”
David Friedberg Feb 11, 2023 ▶ 50:03 E115: The AI Search Wars: Google vs. Microsoft, Nordstream report, State of the Union
Feb 11, 2023 positive
Assertion Contradicted
Friedberg: Google AI improved data center energy efficiency by 40%
“They demonstrated last year that their AI improved data center energy efficiency by 40%.”
David Friedberg Feb 11, 2023 ▶ 35:14 E115: The AI Search Wars: Google vs. Microsoft, Nordstream report, State of the Union
Feb 11, 2023 neutral
Assertion Partly supported
Friedberg: Google pays Apple $15B annually for default iPhone search placement
“Today, Google pays Apple, fifteen billion dollars a year to be the default Search engine on iPhones on the Safari browser.”
David Friedberg Feb 11, 2023 ▶ 52:16 E115: The AI Search Wars: Google vs. Microsoft, Nordstream report, State of the Union
Feb 11, 2023 negative
Opinion
Chamath: Google should cannibalize its search business before competitors do
“Google should go and they should cannibalize their own business before it is cannibalized for them.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Feb 11, 2023 ▶ 1:23:48 E115: The AI Search Wars: Google vs. Microsoft, Nordstream report, State of the Union
Feb 11, 2023 negative
Assertion Supported
Calacanis: Alphabet stock fell 12% following AI demonstration
“They dropped 12% since this event.”
Jason Calacanis Feb 11, 2023 ▶ 33:54 E115: The AI Search Wars: Google vs. Microsoft, Nordstream report, State of the Union
Feb 11, 2023
Assertion Partly supported
Chamath: Google spent around $45 billion on search traffic acquisition in 2022
“Last year they spent, I think, forty-five billion or so, so about 21%.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Feb 11, 2023 ▶ 45:49 E115: The AI Search Wars: Google vs. Microsoft, Nordstream report, State of the Union
Feb 11, 2023 neutral
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Palihapitiya predicts Google losing search market share kills FTC antitrust cases
“Microsoft taking five or 600 basis points of share is the best way to ensure that the FTC has zero credibility in going after Google or anybody else in tech. Those, all of those things I think are DOA.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Feb 11, 2023 ▶ 1:29:09 E115: The AI Search Wars: Google vs. Microsoft, Nordstream report, State of the Union
Feb 24, 2023 bullish
Prediction Held up
Sacks predicts Google and Big Tech will win Supreme Court Section 230 case
“So it looks to me like Google and big tech are going to win this one.”
David Sacks Feb 24, 2023 ▶ 1:00:22 E117: Did Stripe miss its window? Plus: VC market update, AI comes for SaaS, Trump's savvy move
Mar 11, 2023 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Calacanis: SVB contagion will kill tens of thousands of jobs
“Tens of thousands of highly paid workers, and not just tech workers, are going to be out of jobs, and they don't have jobs waiting for them at Amazon, or Google to bail them out, and this is the start of a contagion, if it doesn't get stopped, I believe that.”
Jason Calacanis Mar 11, 2023 ▶ 1:00:00 E119: Silicon Valley Bank implodes: startup extinction event, contagion risk, culpability, and more
Mar 31, 2023 bullish
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Friedberg: Google has the lowest AI model serving and training costs
“Google has arguably the best corpus of data upon which to train, the best capabilities, the best toolkit, the best hardware, the lowest cost for running these sorts of models, the lowest cost for serving them, etc, etc.”
David Friedberg Mar 31, 2023 ▶ 40:47 E122: Is AI the next great computing platform? ChatGPT vs. Google, containing AGI & RESTRICT Act
Mar 31, 2023 bearish
Prediction Partly held up
Calacanis: Google will roll over ChatGPT using its distribution advantage
“So I think that Google will roll. I think they're going to roll ChatGPT.”
Jason Calacanis Mar 31, 2023 ▶ 33:10 E122: Is AI the next great computing platform? ChatGPT vs. Google, containing AGI & RESTRICT Act
Mar 31, 2023 neutral
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Sacks: Google will be a top four AI player but won't steamroll OpenAI
“Do I think that Google will be one of the top four players in AI? Absolutely. But this idea that is going to come and steamroll open AI, I'm not buying it.”
David Sacks Mar 31, 2023 ▶ 45:04 E122: Is AI the next great computing platform? ChatGPT vs. Google, containing AGI & RESTRICT Act
Mar 31, 2023 negative
Assertion Supported
Sacks: Former employee claimed Google trained its AI using ChatGPT
“And the proof of that is there was just a lawsuit a couple of days ago, or at least a claim by a former employee of Google who quit because he said that they were using ChatGPT to train Their AI.”
David Sacks Mar 31, 2023 ▶ 34:58 E122: Is AI the next great computing platform? ChatGPT vs. Google, containing AGI & RESTRICT Act
Mar 31, 2023 negative
Opinion
Chamath: Google's middle management prioritizes ethical debates over survival
“I think the problem at Google is not Sundar or Larry or Sergey. I think it's more in the deep bowels of middle management of that company, which is that there's just far too many people that probably have an opinion and their opinion is not shrouded in surviva…”
Chamath Palihapitiya Mar 31, 2023 ▶ 48:21 E122: Is AI the next great computing platform? ChatGPT vs. Google, containing AGI & RESTRICT Act
Mar 31, 2023 bearish
Opinion
Friedberg: Google's defensive executive culture puts its entire business at risk
“There is an institutional problem at Google at the top level, which does need to be solved, which is this position of constantly being in defense against the scrutiny, again, of regulators and public policy folks and, you know, all these different groups that …”
David Friedberg Mar 31, 2023 ▶ 45:51 E122: Is AI the next great computing platform? ChatGPT vs. Google, containing AGI & RESTRICT Act
Apr 28, 2023 positive
Opinion
Friedberg: Google has a massive structural AI advantage over Microsoft
“I think Google has such an incredible AI advantage over Microsoft. And, you know, Microsoft is almost solely dependent on open AI, this small startup company, and all of Bing chats is powered by it. And Microsoft hasn't built out the infrastructure, the team, …”
David Friedberg Apr 28, 2023 ▶ 5:17 E126: Big Tech blow-out, Powell’s recession warning, lab-grown meat, RFK Jr shakes up race & more
Apr 28, 2023 bearish
Opinion
Chamath: Big Tech companies have passed peak growth and become cash cows
“I think we're now well past peak big tech. Their valuations may still go up because they generate such an enormous amount of cash flow. But these are exactly those kinds of businesses now. They are X growth, large cash flow businesses.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Apr 28, 2023 ▶ 8:00 E126: Big Tech blow-out, Powell’s recession warning, lab-grown meat, RFK Jr shakes up race & more
Apr 28, 2023 positive
Assertion Supported
Calacanis: Google Cloud achieved profitability for the first time in Q1 2023
“Google announced a seventy billion dollar stock buyback plan and that their cloud unit was profitable for the first time in its history.”
Jason Calacanis Apr 28, 2023 ▶ 1:18 E126: Big Tech blow-out, Powell’s recession warning, lab-grown meat, RFK Jr shakes up race & more
May 12, 2023 neutral
Assertion Supported
Calacanis notes Google's PaLM 2 will power 25 products
“Google's language model is going to power. 25 products, including Bard, which is got coding capabilities now, I guess to go up against GitHub's co-pilot.”
Jason Calacanis May 12, 2023 ▶ 3:21 E128: Google enters AI wars, Druck’s warning, Trump crushes CNN & more
May 12, 2023 bullish
Assertion Partly supported
Friedberg notes Google added $150B in market cap after AI announcements
“Google's market caps up a hundred and fifty billion dollars. In the last two days.”
David Friedberg May 12, 2023 ▶ 5:11 E128: Google enters AI wars, Druck’s warning, Trump crushes CNN & more
May 12, 2023 positive
Insight
Palihapitiya says Google's distribution advantage beats raw AI model performance
“And so if they take BART and they have the confidence now to just integrate it into Gmail or integrate it into these other points where they already have hundreds of millions of users, that's like a really tough distribution barrier to overcome. That's the nex…”
Chamath Palihapitiya May 12, 2023 ▶ 15:11 E128: Google enters AI wars, Druck’s warning, Trump crushes CNN & more
May 26, 2023 bearish
Prediction Partly held up
Palihapitiya: Nvidia's margins will compress as major tech companies build custom chips
“In the end, Nvidia's gains today will be then spread across Nvidia. Facebook will have their own chip. Amazon will have their own chip. Google already does. Apple will have their own chip. All the memory companies will be in this space, right? So then the prof…”
Chamath Palihapitiya May 26, 2023 ▶ 1:04:45 E130: DeSantis's Twitter Spaces, debt ceiling, Nvidia rips, state of VC, startup failure & more
Jun 16, 2023 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Jason Calacanis predicts Google will eventually beat ChatGPT in AI search
“I think Google is going to be chat GPT for I'm saying it right here right now. I think they're going to beat them, because I think that they're better at indexing all this information and understanding it than anybody on the planet.”
Jason Calacanis Jun 16, 2023 ▶ 48:03 E133: Market melt-up, IPO update, AI startups overheat, Reddit revolts & more with Brad Gerstner
Jun 16, 2023 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Brad Gerstner predicts AI will force Google to cannibalize search revenue
“The top of the funnel is up for grabs and all of those dollars over a period, again, a five years, seven years is going to get redistributed and make no mistake. Google is well positioned to make its claim for that, but its claim is going to come at the expens…”
Brad Gerstner Jun 16, 2023 ▶ 35:26 E133: Market melt-up, IPO update, AI startups overheat, Reddit revolts & more with Brad Gerstner
Jun 16, 2023 bullish
Disclosure
Brad Gerstner reveals Altimeter bought back Google stock around Google I/O
“I said on CNBC that we had sold our shares. We bought back some of the shares around Google IO because we do think they're going to be a player.”
Brad Gerstner Jun 16, 2023 ▶ 49:13 E133: Market melt-up, IPO update, AI startups overheat, Reddit revolts & more with Brad Gerstner
Jun 24, 2023 neutral
Assertion Supported
JCal: Seven tech stocks drive most of 2023 stock market gains
“Seven stocks make up the mo- most of the gains this year. Meta, Tesla, Nvidia, Amazon, Alphabet, Microsoft, and Apple.”
Jason Calacanis Jun 24, 2023 ▶ 8:33 E134: Ukraine counteroffensive, China tensions, COVID Patient Zero, RFK Jr reaction & more
Jul 14, 2023 negative
Opinion
Sacks: Google should be shattered into a thousand pieces
“I said that after they banned the Jordan Peterson RFK interview, that we should shatter Google into a thousand pieces and scatter to the winds.”
David Sacks Jul 14, 2023 ▶ 49:22 E137: Inflation cools, market rips, Ripple/MSFT beat regulators, NATO summit, cocktails of youth
Aug 11, 2023 neutral
Assertion Partly supported
Gerstner notes Google raised only $23M in venture capital before its IPO
“Twenty three million of total venture raised, I think, prior to IPO.”
Brad Gerstner Aug 11, 2023 ▶ 1:20:44 E141: State of Series A's, VC dry powder, IPO window opens + more with Bill Gurley & Brad Gerstner
Sep 16, 2023 negative
Assertion Supported
Gurley: Four of Elizabeth Warren's top ten donors are big tech companies
“Four of the top 10 contributors to Elizabeth Warren are Alphabet, Apple, Microsoft, Amazon.”
Bill Gurley Sep 16, 2023 ▶ 20:18 All-In Summit: Bill Gurley presents 2,851 Miles
Sep 22, 2023
Assertion Partly supported
Friedberg: 99.9% of market value for Apple, Microsoft, and Google came post-IPO
“99.9% of their total market value. Was realized post IPO”
David Friedberg Sep 22, 2023 ▶ 36:19 E146: Did the Fed break the VC model? Plus IPOs, M&A, revaluing unicorns & more
Sep 26, 2023 positive
Disclosure
Khosla funded OpenAI to counter Chinese AI efforts from Baidu
“And then there was an effort at Baidu. Right. And I was very worried the Chinese might win that. I'm hawkish on China. I have no trust there. And I love Graham Allison's book Destined for War. I'm a complete believer in that thesis. But I thought it'd be valua…”
Vinod Khosla Sep 26, 2023 ▶ 18:03 All-In Summit: In conversation with Vinod Khosla
Sep 29, 2023 positive
Opinion
Calacanis: The idea that Google is moving slowly in AI may be antiquated
“So this idea that Google is going to be displaced or they're moving slow, that might be antiquated information.”
Jason Calacanis Sep 29, 2023 ▶ 1:14:14 E147: TED goes woke, Canada's Nazi blunder, AI adds vision, plus: who owns OpenAI?
Oct 20, 2023 bearish
Prediction Held up
Sachs: Tech giants will comply with EU DSA rather than exit
“Europe is too big a market for Google or any other major tech company to exit. There's just no way. What they're going to do is comply.”
David Sacks Oct 20, 2023 ▶ 58:33 E150: Israel/Gaza escalating or not? EU censorship regime, Penn donors revolt, GLP-1 hype cycle
Dec 8, 2023 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Sachs: Google's AI market share will never rival its search dominance
“Even if they turn out to be good or great in AI, their AI franchises is never going to be as dominant as their search franchise was in that market.”
David Sacks Dec 8, 2023 ▶ 1:06:15 E156: Ivy League antisemitism, macro, SaaS recovery, Gemini, Figma deal delay + big Friedberg update
Dec 16, 2023 neutral
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Friedberg: Epic's win against Google will not trigger major app store changes
“I think Google's got a pretty strong case on appeal, and it seems like, you know, it's gonna be very hard to kind of see a massive change In app store behavior as a result of this case, even though it's been hyped up to be that.”
David Friedberg Dec 16, 2023 ▶ 15:36 E157: Epic legal win, OpenAI's news deal, FCC targets Elon, the limits of free speech & more
Dec 16, 2023 negative
Opinion
Sacks: Apple and Google app stores are monopolies and a mobile duopoly
“These app stores are absolutely monopolies within their ecosystem, and Apple and Google Android are absolutely a duopoly within the mobile space.”
David Sacks Dec 16, 2023 ▶ 17:50 E157: Epic legal win, OpenAI's news deal, FCC targets Elon, the limits of free speech & more
Dec 16, 2023 neutral
Assertion Supported
Calacanis: Google paid Activision $360M to stay in the Play Store
“Google paid Activision three hundred sixty million dollars to keep in the Play Store.”
Jason Calacanis Dec 16, 2023 ▶ 10:47 E157: Epic legal win, OpenAI's news deal, FCC targets Elon, the limits of free speech & more
Jan 13, 2024 neutral
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Friedberg reveals Sergey Brin pitched a Google search-data hedge fund
“When I was at Google in Oh, four or so Sergei Was kind of throwing around the idea. Why don't we start a hedge fund? Because we have all this data about what people are searching for, and we can see all of this consumer behavior, and we could trade on that and…”
David Friedberg Jan 13, 2024 ▶ 58:30 E161: US strikes Houthis, market instability, Q1 rate cuts in doubt, Carta's major mishap, DEI
Jan 19, 2024 bullish
Opinion
Chamath: Facebook and Google are the only true winners of streaming churn
“So the only winner in all of this is Facebook and Google. The only winners are Facebook and Google, because that's where the ads will appear to try to reacquire these folks, right?”
Chamath Palihapitiya Jan 19, 2024 ▶ 1:04:15 E162: Live from Davos! Milei goes viral, Adam Neumann's headwinds, streaming's broken model & more
Jan 26, 2024 negative
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Calacanis: Digital ad gains shift to Google, Meta, TikTok, Amazon, and Uber
“All the gains in advertising have gone to those two firms and now TikTok obviously. And Amazon, Uber building respectable ad businesses as well. So all of that takes ads out of publications and puts it closer to the point of purchase, right?”
Jason Calacanis Jan 26, 2024 ▶ 18:44 E163: Market rips, Media RIFs, Texas defies Biden, Fintech reckoning, ARkStorm 2.0 & more
Feb 23, 2024 negative
Opinion
Sacks: Gemini's flaws accurately reflect the political biases of its creators
“This idea that Gemini turned out this way by accident or because they didn't, because they rushed it out. I don't really believe that. I believe that what happened is Gemini accurately reflects the biases of the people who created it.”
David Sacks Feb 23, 2024 ▶ 55:30 E167: Google's Woke AI disaster, Nvidia smashes earnings (again), Groq's LPU breakthrough & more
Feb 23, 2024 negative
Assertion Supported
Calacanis: Google's Gemini AI refused to generate images of white people
“But earlier this week, users on X started noticing that Gemini would not generate images of white people, even when prompted.”
Jason Calacanis Feb 23, 2024 ▶ 50:27 E167: Google's Woke AI disaster, Nvidia smashes earnings (again), Groq's LPU breakthrough & more
Feb 23, 2024 negative
Opinion
Sacks: Gemini's image errors reflect Google's bureaucratic corporate culture
“The ridiculous images generated by Gemini aren't an anomaly. They're a self portrait of Google's bureaucratic corporate culture.”
David Sacks Feb 23, 2024 ▶ 1:04:37 E167: Google's Woke AI disaster, Nvidia smashes earnings (again), Groq's LPU breakthrough & more
Feb 23, 2024 neutral
Insight
Friedberg: General-purpose AI Q&A services must offer personalization to succeed
“The only way that a company like Google or others that are trying to create a general purpose knowledge Q&A type service are going to be successful is if they enable some degree of personalization where the values and the choice about whether or not I want to …”
David Friedberg Feb 23, 2024 ▶ 58:00 E167: Google's Woke AI disaster, Nvidia smashes earnings (again), Groq's LPU breakthrough & more
Feb 23, 2024 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Sacks: Google will not remove Gemini's bias, only make it more subtle
“Now, I think what's going to happen now is in light of this, the reaction to the rollout is, do I think they're going to get rid of the bias? No, they're going to make it more subtle. That is what I think is disturbing about it. I mean, they should have this m…”
David Sacks Feb 23, 2024 ▶ 55:45 E167: Google's Woke AI disaster, Nvidia smashes earnings (again), Groq's LPU breakthrough & more
Mar 1, 2024 neutral
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Friedberg: AI companies will learn to price and license data like Netflix
“Just like over time, Netflix got better at figuring out what content to buy and what to pay for it, and they're the best at it. I think so too will Google and others figure out what data is actually particularly useful, what it's worth, and what to pay for it.”
David Friedberg Mar 1, 2024 ▶ 48:33 E168: Can Google save itself? Abolish HR, AI takes over Customer Support, Reddit IPO teardown
Mar 1, 2024 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Palihapitiya: Average small website will earn only hundreds from AI licensing
“What Google will be able to pay you will probably be pretty de minimisly small if you're small right now. So, you know, to your point, if the upper bound is sixty million for Reddit, then the average website is going to get a few hundred bucks”
Chamath Palihapitiya Mar 1, 2024 ▶ 45:35 E168: Can Google save itself? Abolish HR, AI takes over Customer Support, Reddit IPO teardown
Mar 1, 2024 negative
What-if
Calacanis: News industry could have forced Google payouts through a federation
“This is why the news industry should have always had a federation, because they could have just said to Google, hey, we're going to de-index ourselves from the Google search engine, and so you won't have the New York Times, Washington Post, LA Times, you're ju…”
Jason Calacanis Mar 1, 2024 ▶ 52:59 E168: Can Google save itself? Abolish HR, AI takes over Customer Support, Reddit IPO teardown
Mar 1, 2024 bearish
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Palihapitiya: Google market cap will drop 50% if search share drops 1%
“If you see perplexity or anybody else clip off 50 basis points or a hundred basis points of share in search. This thing is going straight down by 50%.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Mar 1, 2024 ▶ 23:01 E168: Can Google save itself? Abolish HR, AI takes over Customer Support, Reddit IPO teardown
Mar 1, 2024 negative
Assertion Supported
Sacks: Over 90% of Google employee political contributions go to Democrats
“When everybody is left to center, I mean, just look at something like political contributions, right? It's 90 something percent are democratic. I mean, like high nineties.”
David Sacks Mar 1, 2024 ▶ 28:57 E168: Can Google save itself? Abolish HR, AI takes over Customer Support, Reddit IPO teardown
Mar 1, 2024 bullish
Assertion Partly supported
Friedberg: Alphabet trades at 17x 2025 earnings, cheaper than all tech peers
“It's trading at just 17 times 20 25 consensus earnings, which is cheaper than all the other big tech companies by far, and it's still growing. Core business is growing. Cloud is growing 20%. Search is growing 15%. All these other businesses, YouTube's growing …”
David Friedberg Mar 1, 2024 ▶ 12:10 E168: Can Google save itself? Abolish HR, AI takes over Customer Support, Reddit IPO teardown
Mar 1, 2024
Assertion Supported
Palihapitiya: Google pays Apple $18B to $20B annually for default search
“On the iPhone, it's somewhere between 18 and 20 odd billion dollars a year is what now Google pays Apple.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Mar 1, 2024 ▶ 42:59 E168: Can Google save itself? Abolish HR, AI takes over Customer Support, Reddit IPO teardown
Mar 1, 2024 neutral
Assertion Supported
Friedberg: Search ad revenue generates ~100% of Google's true operating profit
“And so the search margin, the ad revenue on search, Is, you know, probably a hundred percent of the true operating profit of the business.”
David Friedberg Mar 1, 2024 ▶ 9:02 E168: Can Google save itself? Abolish HR, AI takes over Customer Support, Reddit IPO teardown
Mar 1, 2024 neutral
Assertion Partly supported
Friedberg: Google's ad syndication generates $10B quarterly with 70-80% payouts
“That business makes about ten billion a quarter at Google. And they're paying, call it, 70 to 80 cents on every dollar back out to the owners of that traffic, the folks where that traffic is derived from.”
David Friedberg Mar 1, 2024 ▶ 46:29 E168: Can Google save itself? Abolish HR, AI takes over Customer Support, Reddit IPO teardown
Mar 8, 2024 negative
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Chamath: Facebook, Google, Apple, and TikTok are all infiltrated by foreign intelligence
“Facebook is infiltrated. Google is infiltrated. Apple is infiltrated. TikTok is infiltrated. So on that dimension, I think that it should be considered a hundred percent certainty that this data is getting back to not just the Chinese, but multiple state spons…”
Chamath Palihapitiya Mar 8, 2024 ▶ 1:11:12 E169: Elon sues OpenAI, Apple's decline, TikTok ban, Bitcoin $100K?, Science corner: Microplastics
Mar 8, 2024
Assertion Supported
Chamath: Elon Musk was instrumental in recruiting Ilya Sutskever to OpenAI
“They used his name pretty aggressively to get more money, and he was very instrumental in getting some of the early critical hires, particularly Ilya, which has been, I think, well-documented, to leave Google, right?”
Chamath Palihapitiya Mar 8, 2024 ▶ 6:09 E169: Elon sues OpenAI, Apple's decline, TikTok ban, Bitcoin $100K?, Science corner: Microplastics
Mar 16, 2024 neutral
Assertion Contradicted
Friedberg: Google's terms of service prohibit training its AI on YouTube
“Under the terms of service, Google's not allowed to train on YouTube data.”
David Friedberg Mar 16, 2024 ▶ 26:19 E170: Tech's Vibe Shift, TikTok ban debate, Vertical AI boom, Florida bans lab-grown meat & more
Mar 22, 2024 neutral
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Friedberg: Apple is building in-house AI, using Google deal as paid stopgap
“It seems to me like there's, if Apple's doing the right thing, which I'm sure they are, they're probably building their own alternative platform here. They realize it's going to take them some time in the interim. They want to have a stopgap. And my guess is b…”
David Friedberg Mar 22, 2024 ▶ 26:01 E171: DOJ sues Apple, AI arms race, Reddit IPO, Realtor settlement & more
Mar 22, 2024 neutral
Insight
Calacanis: Apple-Google AI deal cements alliance to counter Microsoft
“What I do think about this deal that's really interesting is it's sort of cementing the Google and the Apple Alliance against Microsoft and Microsoft has big, you know, AI ambition. So this is kind of interesting. If you lock in the duopoly of Google and Apple…”
Jason Calacanis Mar 22, 2024 ▶ 31:48 E171: DOJ sues Apple, AI arms race, Reddit IPO, Realtor settlement & more
Apr 5, 2024 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Chamath: Google acquiring HubSpot would take three years for antitrust approval
“If it took Google almost two years to get a, an accelerometer on a wrist to prove from antitrust, this is going to take three years.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Apr 5, 2024 ▶ 43:39 E173: Google buying HubSpot? FTX depositors not made whole, AI job fears, Ukraine joining NATO
Apr 5, 2024 positive
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Friedberg: Google Analytics generated roughly $500M in incremental ad revenue
“At the time, we saw an incremental roughly five hundred million dollars in revenue in ad spend with folks who installed Google Analytics from before versus after because they then started to change their websites and tweak their sales flow or their marketing f…”
David Friedberg Apr 5, 2024 ▶ 41:36 E173: Google buying HubSpot? FTX depositors not made whole, AI job fears, Ukraine joining NATO
Apr 5, 2024 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Sacks: Traditional antitrust guidelines would allow Google to acquire HubSpot
“And I think that a Republican antitrust enforcer would probably be guided by market share considerations first and foremost. And so in this case, since Google does not have a CRM play, then based on a traditional definition of antitrust, they would be able to …”
David Sacks Apr 5, 2024 ▶ 46:40 E173: Google buying HubSpot? FTX depositors not made whole, AI job fears, Ukraine joining NATO
Apr 5, 2024 bearish
Insight
Friedberg: Massive corporate acquisitions typically signal a slowdown in organic growth
“When a big company like this makes a big acquisition offer like this, as much as I know Google's business, I think it's a generalization that can be drawn here. It's usually a negative signal about organic growth.”
David Friedberg Apr 5, 2024 ▶ 35:40 E173: Google buying HubSpot? FTX depositors not made whole, AI job fears, Ukraine joining NATO
Apr 5, 2024 negative
Opinion
Sacks: Enterprise software is the most neglected part of Google's business
“If you think about the business that this is most like, it would be G suite and because it's an enterprise play and that's the most neglected part of Google's business.”
David Sacks Apr 5, 2024 ▶ 39:46 E173: Google buying HubSpot? FTX depositors not made whole, AI job fears, Ukraine joining NATO
Apr 5, 2024 neutral
Opinion
Calacanis: Google wants HubSpot for customer data, not a SaaS business
“That's what's actually happening here. It's, they don't want a SaaS business. They want the data. They want to retarget folks, and then they want to make, close more sales and be more efficient than TikTok and Facebook and Meta.”
Jason Calacanis Apr 5, 2024 ▶ 40:40 E173: Google buying HubSpot? FTX depositors not made whole, AI job fears, Ukraine joining NATO
Apr 5, 2024 negative
Opinion
Chamath: HubSpot is not strategically valuable for Google
“I would not characterize HubSpot as strategically valuable for Google. I think it's an important ecosystem player, and it's probably better off as an independent company.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Apr 5, 2024 ▶ 28:28 E173: Google buying HubSpot? FTX depositors not made whole, AI job fears, Ukraine joining NATO
Apr 5, 2024 neutral
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Sacks: Google's successful acquisitions have been horizontal platform plays like Android
“I mean, the acquisitions where Google has been really successful have been broad, horizontal platform plays like Android.”
David Sacks Apr 5, 2024 ▶ 39:28 E173: Google buying HubSpot? FTX depositors not made whole, AI job fears, Ukraine joining NATO
Apr 12, 2024
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Chamath: AI developers will train on everything if Google doesn't sue OpenAI
“So if this multi-trillion dollar company doesn't draw a line in the sand, then none of this matters and everybody's going to train on everything.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Apr 12, 2024 ▶ 51:21 E174: Inflation stays hot, AI disclosure bill, Drone warfare, defense startups & more
Apr 19, 2024 neutral
Prediction Held up
Chamath: Google will not cancel Project Nimbus and attention will fade
“I think in a week from now, everybody will forget what project Nimbus is. The odds that it gets canceled are less than zero and everybody will move on.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Apr 19, 2024 ▶ 34:23 Google fires protestors, NPR chaos, Humane's AI Pin, Startup tax crisis, sports betting scandal
Apr 19, 2024 neutral
Opinion
Sacks: Google had no choice but to fire protesting employees
“Well, Google had no choice but to fire these employees. They were being disruptive, and they were trespassing, and Google has a business to run, so this is what any business would do, and I don't think they deserve either credit or blame for taking the action …”
David Sacks Apr 19, 2024 ▶ 22:21 Google fires protestors, NPR chaos, Humane's AI Pin, Startup tax crisis, sports betting scandal
Apr 26, 2024 bullish
Opinion
Chamath: Meta and Google are no longer lagging behind OpenAI
“Because I think up until this point, you could have said that they and Google were sort of lagging behind OpenAI, but I don't think that's the case.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Apr 26, 2024 ▶ 7:59 Meta's scorched earth approach to AI, Tesla's future, TikTok bill, FTC bans noncompetes, wealth tax
Apr 26, 2024 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Chamath: Google search market share could drop to high 70s
“Everybody takes a point here and a point there and all of a sudden Google could be in the high seventies of search and that would be economically disastrous for their stock.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Apr 26, 2024 ▶ 19:45 Meta's scorched earth approach to AI, Tesla's future, TikTok bill, FTC bans noncompetes, wealth tax
May 3, 2024 positive
Assertion Partly supported
Calacanis: Google revenue grew from $20M to $22B during Sandberg's tenure
“When she joined Google in 2001, it had twenty million in revenue. They were private. And when she left in 2008, they had twenty two billion dollars in revenue.”
Jason Calacanis May 3, 2024 ▶ 1:49 Sheryl Sandberg, plus open-source AI gene editing explained
May 10, 2024 neutral
Assertion Supported
Friedberg: Google kept AlphaFold 3 proprietary instead of open-sourcing the code
“They've basically kept all the IP for AlphaFold III in Isomorphic. So Google is going to monetize the heck out of this capability. And what they made available was not open source code, but a web-based viewer that scientists for, quote, non-commercial purposes…”
David Friedberg May 10, 2024 ▶ 1:33:50 Sam Altman: Getting Fired (and Re-Hired) by OpenAI, Agents, AI Copyright issues
May 10, 2024 neutral
Insight
Calacanis: Tech companies open-source when behind and closed-source when ahead
“Open source when you're behind, closed source, lock it up when you're ahead.”
Jason Calacanis May 10, 2024 ▶ 1:38:10 Sam Altman: Getting Fired (and Re-Hired) by OpenAI, Agents, AI Copyright issues
May 10, 2024 positive
Opinion
Friedberg: Google's AlphaFold 3 is a breathtaking moment for biology and medicine
“Alpha fold three that was just announced today and demonstrated by Google is a real I would say breathtaking moment for biology, for bioengineering, for human health, for medicine.”
David Friedberg May 10, 2024 ▶ 1:30:20 Sam Altman: Getting Fired (and Re-Hired) by OpenAI, Agents, AI Copyright issues
May 17, 2024 bearish
Prediction Held up
Calacanis predicts Google will face major publisher lawsuits over AI Overviews
“And I think that we're going to see a major lawsuit here.”
Jason Calacanis May 17, 2024 ▶ 1:23:29 GPT-4o launches, Glue demo, Ohalo breakthrough, Druck's Argentina bet, did Google kill Perplexity?
May 17, 2024 bullish
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Friedberg: Meta and Amazon lack high-value call options like Google's Waymo
“Meta and Amazon do not have an isomorphic lab and Waymo sitting inside their business that suddenly pops to a couple hundred billion of market cap. And Google does have a few of those.”
David Friedberg May 17, 2024 ▶ 1:29:36 GPT-4o launches, Glue demo, Ohalo breakthrough, Druck's Argentina bet, did Google kill Perplexity?
May 17, 2024 positive
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Calacanis: Generative AI will increase total search queries and user engagement
“My belief is that this is going to result in more searches and more knowledge engagement because once you Get how to cook your steak and get the right temperature, right? For medium rare. It's going to anticipate your next three questions better. So now to say…”
Jason Calacanis May 17, 2024 ▶ 1:25:52 GPT-4o launches, Glue demo, Ohalo breakthrough, Druck's Argentina bet, did Google kill Perplexity?
May 17, 2024 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Sacks: Perplexity is screwed unless acquired after Google copied AI citations
“I think they're kind of screwed now, unless they get an acquisition deal.”
David Sacks May 17, 2024 ▶ 1:32:42 GPT-4o launches, Glue demo, Ohalo breakthrough, Druck's Argentina bet, did Google kill Perplexity?
May 17, 2024 positive
Prediction Held up
Calacanis: Google will roll out AI Overviews to most users by end of 2024
“Basically it's perplexity for most users by the end of the year, they're going to have this.”
Jason Calacanis May 17, 2024 ▶ 1:22:51 GPT-4o launches, Glue demo, Ohalo breakthrough, Druck's Argentina bet, did Google kill Perplexity?
May 17, 2024 bullish
Prediction Open · timeframe May 2027
Sacks predicts Alphabet will reach $5 trillion market cap despite missteps
“They can make 10 mistakes, but their monopoly is so strong that they can finally get it right by copying the innovator, and they're probably gonna become a five billion dollar company now. Sorry, five trillion dollar company.”
David Sacks May 17, 2024 ▶ 1:34:37 GPT-4o launches, Glue demo, Ohalo breakthrough, Druck's Argentina bet, did Google kill Perplexity?
Jul 26, 2024 positive
Assertion Supported
Friedberg: Google Cloud generated $10.3B revenue and $1.2B profit last quarter
“GCP in the last quarter did 10.3 billion in revenue, which is up from eight billion in revenue the year before in the same quarter the year before. And importantly, in this past quarter, they're running at a 1.2 billion dollar operating profit out of GCP.”
David Friedberg Jul 26, 2024 ▶ 10:00 Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
Jul 26, 2024
Assertion Supported
Calacanis: Wiz reached $500M ARR and $12B valuation prior to Google offer
“Wiz was valued at twelve billion in its most recent funding round. They've got about five hundred million in ARR.”
Jason Calacanis Jul 26, 2024 ▶ 4:06 Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
Aug 9, 2024 negative
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Friedberg: Strong push coming to curb power of Meta, X, and Google
“I think that because of how inflamed people are at the influence that these companies have meta and Twitter and Google, there is going to be a strong push to do a lot more than what the narrow focus of the ruling in this particular case to do something much mo…”
David Friedberg Aug 9, 2024 ▶ 1:19:36 Yen Carry Trade, Recession odds grow, Buffett cash pile, Google ruled monopoly, Kamala picks Walz
Aug 9, 2024 negative
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Sacks predicts Republicans will support breaking up Google
“And I think Republicans will be on board with that because frankly, Google's a threat to democracy.”
David Sacks Aug 9, 2024 ▶ 1:01:32 Yen Carry Trade, Recession odds grow, Buffett cash pile, Google ruled monopoly, Kamala picks Walz
Aug 9, 2024 negative
Opinion
Chamath: Google ruling is tech's most important antitrust case since Microsoft in 2000
“I think that this Google thing is the most important thing that's happened in tech since the Microsoft DOJ decision in 2000.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Aug 9, 2024 ▶ 58:14 Yen Carry Trade, Recession odds grow, Buffett cash pile, Google ruled monopoly, Kamala picks Walz
Aug 9, 2024 negative
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Sacks: Over 90% of Google employees are liberal Democrats
“The fact of the matter is the vast, vast majority, well over 90% of the employees at Google are liberal Democrats, and the Google search does rely on manual actions, and the people performing those actions are, again, overwhelmingly from one side of the politi…”
David Sacks Aug 9, 2024 ▶ 1:20:06 Yen Carry Trade, Recession odds grow, Buffett cash pile, Google ruled monopoly, Kamala picks Walz
Aug 9, 2024 negative
Prediction Held up
Palihapitiya: Google breakup unlikely, Microsoft-style consent decree very likely
“Again, the big O outcome of breaking up the company, like what happened in Mabel, I don't think that's going to happen here. A little O outcome that is a consent decree similar to the one that Microsoft had to sign is very likely.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Aug 9, 2024 ▶ 1:17:31 Yen Carry Trade, Recession odds grow, Buffett cash pile, Google ruled monopoly, Kamala picks Walz
Aug 9, 2024
Assertion Supported
Friedberg: Google pays Apple $20B per year for default search placement
“Google's paying Apple twenty billion dollars a year to be the default search engine.”
David Friedberg Aug 9, 2024 ▶ 49:39 Yen Carry Trade, Recession odds grow, Buffett cash pile, Google ruled monopoly, Kamala picks Walz
Aug 9, 2024 bullish
Prediction Open · timeframe Aug 2027
Calacanis: Apple will buy a search engine and expand its advertising network
“My prediction is Apple buys a search engine and they go it alone and expand their advertising network like Amazon, Uber, and other companies have.”
Jason Calacanis Aug 9, 2024 ▶ 57:59 Yen Carry Trade, Recession odds grow, Buffett cash pile, Google ruled monopoly, Kamala picks Walz
Aug 9, 2024 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Chamath: Google antitrust ruling could wipe out $1T from Apple's value
“If this antitrust ruling against Google stands, that alone could be worth upwards of half a trillion to a trillion dollars, depending on what multiple you want to put on that 20.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Aug 9, 2024 ▶ 54:28 Yen Carry Trade, Recession odds grow, Buffett cash pile, Google ruled monopoly, Kamala picks Walz
Aug 16, 2024 neutral
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Chamath gives single-digit odds to Google being broken up by DOJ
“When I kind of was thinking about it last week, I really thought this was a single digit probability. I still think it's a single digit probability.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Aug 16, 2024 ▶ 13:28 Break up Google, Starbucks CEO out, Kamala’s price controls, Boeing disaster, Kursk offensive
Aug 16, 2024 negative
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Eric Schmidt: Google prioritized work-life balance over winning
“Google decided that work-life balance and going home early and working from home was more important than winning.”
Eric Schmidt Aug 16, 2024 ▶ 45:52 Break up Google, Starbucks CEO out, Kamala’s price controls, Boeing disaster, Kursk offensive
Aug 16, 2024 bullish
Opinion
Calacanis values YouTube at $400B and Waymo at $50B as spin-offs
“YouTube and Waymo, those would be like a four hundred billion dollar company, a fifty billion dollar company.”
Jason Calacanis Aug 16, 2024 ▶ 19:03 Break up Google, Starbucks CEO out, Kamala’s price controls, Boeing disaster, Kursk offensive
Aug 16, 2024 neutral
Opinion
Calacanis: Google has a search monopoly but not an ad monopoly
“They do have a massive monopoly in search. That's absolutely true and the Justice Department, I think, is well within their rights to take a deep dive on that. They don't have it in ads.”
Jason Calacanis Aug 16, 2024 ▶ 17:40 Break up Google, Starbucks CEO out, Kamala’s price controls, Boeing disaster, Kursk offensive
Aug 16, 2024 negative
Opinion
Sacks: Google should be broken up into four separate companies
“Our workshopping this issue has pretty much convinced me that it should be four companies. Search, advertising, YouTube, and Android, because I think Android could be a standalone business because of the value of the search default.”
David Sacks Aug 16, 2024 ▶ 27:39 Break up Google, Starbucks CEO out, Kamala’s price controls, Boeing disaster, Kursk offensive
Aug 16, 2024
Prediction Open · timeframe Aug 2027
Calacanis: Apple will launch its own search engine to compete with Google
“I believe Apple's gonna launch their own search engine and compete heads up with Google, and so I think that's gonna be the very interesting thing that happens in this market.”
Jason Calacanis Aug 16, 2024 ▶ 21:18 Break up Google, Starbucks CEO out, Kamala’s price controls, Boeing disaster, Kursk offensive
Sep 10, 2024 neutral
Opinion
Vance: Big Tech favors Democrats while Little Tech startups lean Republican
“Big tech has become increasingly pro-Democrat. Little tech has become increasingly pro-Republican, right? So if you're an upstart, if you're in crypto, if you're like a small AI company, I think you're much more likely to be pro-Republican. If you're a monopol…”
JD Vance Sep 10, 2024 ▶ 23:08 JD Vance | All-In Summit 2024
Sep 10, 2024
Disclosure
Sergey Brin confirms he works at Google 'pretty much every day'
“Honestly, like, pretty much every day.”
Sergey Brin Sep 10, 2024 ▶ 2:18 Sergey Brin | All-In Summit 2024
Sep 10, 2024 positive
Assertion Supported
Brin: Google AI achieved a silver medal score at the Math Olympiad
“Like the International Math Olympiad that we participate in, we got silver medal as an AI, actually one point away from gold.”
Sergey Brin Sep 10, 2024 ▶ 6:58 Sergey Brin | All-In Summit 2024
Sep 10, 2024
Disclosure
Sergey Brin: Google Cloud turns away customers due to compute shortages
“For us, we're kind of building out compute as quickly as we can, and we just have a huge amount of demand. I mean, for example, our cloud customers just want a huge amount of TPUs, GPUs, you name it. You know, we just can't, we have to turn down customers beca…”
Sergey Brin Sep 10, 2024 ▶ 9:24 Sergey Brin | All-In Summit 2024
Sep 10, 2024 negative
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Sergey Brin admits Google was 'quite a ways behind' when ChatGPT launched
“We've come a long way since you know, a couple whatever years ago when ChatGPT launched and we were quite a ways behind.”
Sergey Brin Sep 10, 2024 ▶ 19:15 Sergey Brin | All-In Summit 2024
Sep 10, 2024 negative
Opinion
Sergey Brin admits Google was 'too timid' to deploy language models
“We were too timid to deploy them”
Sergey Brin Sep 10, 2024 ▶ 16:18 Sergey Brin | All-In Summit 2024
Sep 15, 2024 bullish
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Benioff claims Agentforce doubled Google's AI accuracy in a head-to-head benchmark
“In a head-to-head benchmark of Salesforce's agent force against Google's AI, we two X them on accuracy”
Marc Benioff Sep 15, 2024 ▶ 27:11 Marc Benioff | All-In Summit 2024
Sep 23, 2024
Assertion Partly supported
Arora: Google European revenue briefly exceeded its US revenue
“And that's one of the few tech companies in the world whose European revenue was higher than the US revenue for a brief period of time.”
Nikesh Arora Sep 23, 2024 ▶ 5:34 Nikesh Arora | All-In Summit 2024
Sep 23, 2024 positive
Assertion Supported
Chamath Palihapitiya: Google revenue grew from $3B to $66B under Nikesh Arora
“Revenue went from three billion. I checked this actually just to make sure cause I have it staggering to sixty six billion when you left.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Sep 23, 2024 ▶ 1:32 Nikesh Arora | All-In Summit 2024
Sep 23, 2024 neutral
Assertion Supported
Arora: Yahoo Japan and Google run separate ad systems on Google search
“In Japan today, Yahoo Japan is powered by Google, and Google's powered by Google, but the advertising systems are different, hence it's non-competitive.”
Nikesh Arora Sep 23, 2024 ▶ 9:03 Nikesh Arora | All-In Summit 2024
Sep 27, 2024 positive
Assertion Contradicted
Calacanis: Google, Uber, Airbnb, Meta doubled revenue per employee in 2-3 years
“If you look at Google, Uber, Airbnb, and Facebook Meta, They have the same number or less employees than they did three years ago, but they're all growing in that 20 to 30% a year, which means in but two to three years, each of those companies has doubled reve…”
Jason Calacanis Sep 27, 2024 ▶ 40:07 OpenAI's $150B conversion, Meta's AR glasses, Blue-collar boom, Risk of nuclear war
Oct 3, 2024 negative
Opinion
Cuban: Breaking up Google and Meta hurts US AI competitiveness
“The most important thing from a technological perspective in this country today Is that we win AI. That is going to find everything militarily for us and economically for us, and that when you try to break up companies like Google and Facebook, you diminish ou…”
Mark Cuban Oct 3, 2024 ▶ 53:54 Mark Cuban: Love/Hate Relationship with Trump, Why He's Backing Kamala Harris
Oct 3, 2024 positive
Opinion
Cuban: Google's Gemini 1.5, NotebookLM, and Meta open source are insanely good
“Notebook is insanely good. Gemini, 1.5 is insanely good. Meta as open source and what they're doing is getting better and better.”
Mark Cuban Oct 3, 2024 ▶ 2:01:16 Mark Cuban: Love/Hate Relationship with Trump, Why He's Backing Kamala Harris
Oct 3, 2024 bullish
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Chamath: Big Tech incumbents consistently win when threatened by upstarts
“And I think in, in the last 20 or 25 years, what you've seen is those companies, when their backs are against the wall, they use money, they're sharp elbowed, but the consistent thing is they've won.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Oct 3, 2024 ▶ 2:02:55 Mark Cuban: Love/Hate Relationship with Trump, Why He's Backing Kamala Harris
Oct 11, 2024 bearish
Prediction Held up
Palihapitiya predicts DOJ will force structural remedies on Google
“There'll be some form of forced remedy.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Oct 11, 2024 ▶ 43:19 Hurricane fallout, AlphaFold, Google breakup, Trump surge, VC giveback, TikTok survey
Oct 11, 2024 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Palihapitiya: DOJ will target Meta for breakup after Google
“So I think that they, if given their druthers, they being the powers that be in Washington, will probably want to take a run at both of these companies. They'll start with the one that they think they can disassemble the quickest, and then they'll go to Meta a…”
Chamath Palihapitiya Oct 11, 2024 ▶ 46:26 Hurricane fallout, AlphaFold, Google breakup, Trump surge, VC giveback, TikTok survey
Oct 11, 2024 bullish
Opinion
Sacks: Breaking up Google into three companies would benefit shareholders
“I think it's still a good thing to be looking at breaking up Google. I actually think that would be good. At the end of the day, it might even be good for shareholders. This thing should be probably three separate companies like we've talked about in our previ…”
David Sacks Oct 11, 2024 ▶ 45:08 Hurricane fallout, AlphaFold, Google breakup, Trump surge, VC giveback, TikTok survey
Nov 1, 2024 neutral
Prediction Open · timeframe Nov 2029
Chamath: Google will eventually be broken up into separate units
“Where it lies is this business is in a position where you can probably demarcate four or five logical business units. Again, I'm not saying that it should happen, but it will happen.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Nov 1, 2024 ▶ 32:48 Inflated GDP?, Google earnings, How the media lost trust, Rogan/Trump search controversy, Election!
Nov 16, 2024 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Friedberg: Google will avoid major acquisitions to dodge regulatory fallout
“I don't think that Google's in a place right now where they can go out and make a bunch of acquisitions. They're gonna do everything they can to avoid the regulatory sledgehammer that's coming their way.”
David Friedberg Nov 16, 2024 ▶ 13:58 Trump's market impact: Bitcoin, M&A, IPOs + transition picks; Polymarket CEO raided by FBI
Nov 16, 2024 negative
Opinion
Sacks: Google should be broken up
“So my view is that Google should be broken up.”
David Sacks Nov 16, 2024 ▶ 19:02 Trump's market impact: Bitcoin, M&A, IPOs + transition picks; Polymarket CEO raided by FBI
Dec 13, 2024 neutral
Opinion
Friedberg: Google's quantum computing announcement reveals no novel physics
“So what's kind of happening, I think, in that language J. Cal is nothing novel was kind of discovered or represented. That's just quantum mechanics.”
David Friedberg Dec 13, 2024 ▶ 40:39 Trump's Cabinet, Google's Quantum Chip, Apple's Flop, TikTok, State of VC
Dec 20, 2024 bullish
Insight
Levie: YouTube screen-sharing video library gives Google a browser AI advantage
“There was another release last week of experimental project for browser use by Gemini, which is another advantage because YouTube has obviously an incredible amount of screen sharing data and videos.”
Aaron Levie Dec 20, 2024 ▶ 1:31:59 DOGE kills its first bill, Zuck vs OpenAI, Google's AI comeback
Dec 20, 2024
Assertion Contradicted
Calacanis: Google must update terms of service to train AI on YouTube
“I don't think they're allowed to, is what I heard from the insiders. They have to redo the terms of service to get explicit permission to use it.”
Jason Calacanis Dec 20, 2024 ▶ 1:30:31 DOGE kills its first bill, Zuck vs OpenAI, Google's AI comeback
Dec 20, 2024 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Chamath: Big tech and Elon Musk will win the AI hardware war
“In a capital war, I think the big companies like Google, Amazon, Microsoft, Meta, And brands like Elon will always be able to attract effectively infinite capital, and their cost of capital goes to zero, which means they'll be able to win this hardware war.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Dec 20, 2024 ▶ 1:01:34 DOGE kills its first bill, Zuck vs OpenAI, Google's AI comeback
Dec 20, 2024 bullish
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Friedberg: Google shifted strategy to launch early and aggressively in AI
“And what they've done is they've changed the posture in the last two years. And now the posture is launch early, launch aggressively, push hard. We have to win this battle or we're going to get eaten alive.”
David Friedberg Dec 20, 2024 ▶ 1:33:55 DOGE kills its first bill, Zuck vs OpenAI, Google's AI comeback
Jan 4, 2025 bearish
Prediction Held up
Baker predicts Google Cloud will not lead 2025 cloud dollar revenue growth
“Well, it probably won't be Google, because if they had the largest dollar gain, it would mean they were growing at an, at insane rates”
Gavin Baker Jan 4, 2025 ▶ 1:45:05 2025 Predictions: Tech, Business, Media, Politics!
Jan 4, 2025 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Calacanis predicts Tesla and Google will be 2025's biggest business winners
“My biggest business winner prediction for 2025 is Tesla and Google.”
Jason Calacanis Jan 4, 2025 ▶ 29:02 2025 Predictions: Tech, Business, Media, Politics!
Jan 18, 2025 negative
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Mark Pincus: MBA jobs at Meta and Google have dried up
“Everyone wants a job at Meta or Google, and that's the get rich quick place, and it's, I don't even think that's necessarily true anymore, and they can't get those jobs because those companies are now trying to get rid of middle management. So those jobs have …”
Mark Pincus Jan 18, 2025 ▶ 1:22:59 Red-pilled Billionaires, LA Fire Update, Newsom's Price Caps, TikTok Ban, Jobless MBAs
Feb 7, 2025 bullish
Opinion
Friedberg: Google's $75B CapEx signals high confidence in returns
“I would view the seventy five billion dollar capex actually as a very positive signal for the company. I think that it means that they have a really strong line of sight on how they're going to have full utilization and great return on this.”
David Friedberg Feb 7, 2025 ▶ 1:15:33 DOGE vs USAID, Crypto Framework, Google's $75B AI Spend, US Sovereign Wealth Fund, GLP-1s
Feb 7, 2025 positive
Opinion
Chamath: Meta is the only company matching Google in AI ad optimization
“The other thing that Google has is a money machine that directly benefits from these AI driven optimizations on ad targeting. The only other company that has anywhere close to the same credibility is Meta.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Feb 7, 2025 ▶ 1:11:23 DOGE vs USAID, Crypto Framework, Google's $75B AI Spend, US Sovereign Wealth Fund, GLP-1s
Mar 20, 2025 positive
Disclosure
Lutnick: Google, Microsoft, and Amazon are building U.S. government software for free
“I go to the heads of Google and Microsoft and Amazon. They're all For America. Building for us. Right. For free. Right. To make America better.”
Howard Lutnick Mar 20, 2025 ▶ 1:18:40 Howard Lutnick | All-In DC
Mar 22, 2025
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Calacanis: Wiz previously turned down a $23 billion offer from Google
“Wiz turned down twenty three billion dollars from Google.”
Jason Calacanis Mar 22, 2025 ▶ 34:01 White House BTS, Google buys Wiz, Treasury vs Fed, Space Rescue
Mar 22, 2025 neutral
Assertion Supported
Calacanis: Google's Wiz deal includes a $3.2B cash breakup fee
“It's 10% of the deal size, 3.2 billion dollars in cash. They don't get an investment. If this deal doesn't go through, Google has to give whiz 3.2 billion dollars in cash.”
Jason Calacanis Mar 22, 2025 ▶ 49:31 White House BTS, Google buys Wiz, Treasury vs Fed, Space Rescue
Mar 22, 2025 positive
Assertion Supported
Calacanis: Google acquired Wiz for $32 billion in cash
“Google has acquired Wiz for 30 two billion dollars in cash.”
Jason Calacanis Mar 22, 2025 ▶ 33:01 White House BTS, Google buys Wiz, Treasury vs Fed, Space Rescue
Apr 26, 2025 neutral
Assertion Contradicted
Chamath: Alphabet owns a 10% stake in SpaceX
“And they own 10% of SpaceX, by the way.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Apr 26, 2025 ▶ 52:57 Trump Rally or Bessent Put? Elon Back at Tesla, Google's Gemini Problem, China's Thorium Discovery
May 9, 2025 neutral
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Calacanis: Sergey Brin works around 70 hours a week at Alphabet
“He's working, like, 70 hours a week over at, ah, Alphabet”
Jason Calacanis May 9, 2025 ▶ 3:05 Fed Hesitates on Tariffs, The New Mag 7, Death of VC, Google's Value in a Post-Search World
May 9, 2025 neutral
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Calacanis: Google will execute large layoffs and mandate return-to-office
“I think they're going to cut a large number of employees, get people to return back to office.”
Jason Calacanis May 9, 2025 ▶ 44:58 Fed Hesitates on Tariffs, The New Mag 7, Death of VC, Google's Value in a Post-Search World
May 9, 2025 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Chamath Palihapitiya predicts markets will price in Google search decay
“All I'm saying is that the market will now start to price this decay in.”
Chamath Palihapitiya May 9, 2025 ▶ 54:22 Fed Hesitates on Tariffs, The New Mag 7, Death of VC, Google's Value in a Post-Search World
May 16, 2025 positive
Assertion Supported
Pichai: YouTube is likely the largest podcasting service in the world
“I think we are the largest podcasting service in the world.”
Sundar Pichai May 16, 2025 ▶ 14:48 Sundar Pichai, CEO of Alphabet | The All-In Interview
May 16, 2025 neutral
Disclosure
Alphabet's $75B 2025 CapEx is primarily for servers and data centers
“On the seventy-five billion dollars in capex for twenty-twenty-five, you know, obviously majority of that goes into servers, data centers and so on servers being the vast portion of it.”
Sundar Pichai May 16, 2025 ▶ 18:40 Sundar Pichai, CEO of Alphabet | The All-In Interview
May 16, 2025 positive
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Google DeepMind engineers work in person at least 5 days weekly
“When I walk into the GDM building, you know, some of our earliest engineers are all sitting there. Working together. People come in five days a week at a minimum, right?”
Sundar Pichai May 16, 2025 ▶ 51:55 Sundar Pichai, CEO of Alphabet | The All-In Interview
May 16, 2025 positive
Assertion Supported
Pichai: Former Google employees have started over 2,000 companies
“I'm equally proud of the fact that I think Google has left to start over 2000 companies, right?”
Sundar Pichai May 16, 2025 ▶ 54:52 Sundar Pichai, CEO of Alphabet | The All-In Interview
May 16, 2025 neutral
Disclosure
Pichai: Google intensely debated acquiring Netflix at one point
“Maybe Netflix, right? Like we debated Netflix at some point super intensely inside.”
Sundar Pichai May 16, 2025 ▶ 1:01:11 Sundar Pichai, CEO of Alphabet | The All-In Interview
May 16, 2025 positive
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Pichai: Some Alphabet subsidiaries will eventually spin off and IPO
“Some of them will leave and IPO out because maybe that's the best way they can make progress.”
Sundar Pichai May 16, 2025 ▶ 58:56 Sundar Pichai, CEO of Alphabet | The All-In Interview
May 16, 2025 positive
Assertion Supported
Pichai: Google's Ironwood TPU pod delivers over 40 exaflops
“Ironwood, which is our latest in our TPU series, a single part of Ironwood is over 40 exaflops, right?”
Sundar Pichai May 16, 2025 ▶ 17:42 Sundar Pichai, CEO of Alphabet | The All-In Interview
May 16, 2025 positive
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Pichai: Search query serving costs fell dramatically over 18 months
“We've actually seen, like, you know, for a given query, the cost to serve that query has fallen dramatically in an 18 month time frame.”
Sundar Pichai May 16, 2025 ▶ 11:22 Sundar Pichai, CEO of Alphabet | The All-In Interview
May 16, 2025 neutral
Disclosure
Pichai: Half of Google's 2025 compute CapEx is for Google Cloud
“Looking at twenty-twenty-five and looking at the compute part of the span half of that is going towards our cloud business in twenty-twenty-five.”
Sundar Pichai May 16, 2025 ▶ 18:55 Sundar Pichai, CEO of Alphabet | The All-In Interview
May 16, 2025 positive
Assertion Supported
Pichai: YouTube and Google Cloud reached $110B run rate last year
“Last year, we exited a combination of YouTube and cloud at hundred and ten billion dollars.”
Sundar Pichai May 16, 2025 ▶ 14:29 Sundar Pichai, CEO of Alphabet | The All-In Interview
May 16, 2025 positive
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Pichai: Google benchmarked DeepSeek against Flash and Flash was as efficient
“Interestingly for us internally, we benchmarked it to Flash and, you know, Flash was, ah, as efficient or, you know, you could argue in some ways better.”
Sundar Pichai May 16, 2025 ▶ 34:41 Sundar Pichai, CEO of Alphabet | The All-In Interview
May 20, 2025
Disclosure
Brin: Google sold robotics startups because AI software lagged behind hardware
“I mean, I think we've you know, acquired and later sold like five or so robotics companies and you know, Boston being one of them. I guess if I look back on it, we built the hardware. We also had this more recently. We built out everyday robotics internally, a…”
Sergey Brin May 20, 2025 ▶ 12:57 Sergey Brin, Google Co-Founder | All-In Live from Miami
May 20, 2025
Assertion Supported
Calacanis: Google has 5 or 6 products with over 2B users each
“Now you have over two billion people using, I think, six products or five products have over two billion.”
Jason Calacanis May 20, 2025 ▶ 2:24 Sergey Brin, Google Co-Founder | All-In Live from Miami
May 20, 2025 positive
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Brin: Google's free AI tiers typically match the previous generation's pro tier
“Every time we've gone forward a generation, then the sort of the new free tier is usually as good as the previous pro tier and sometimes better.”
Sergey Brin May 20, 2025 ▶ 30:50 Sergey Brin, Google Co-Founder | All-In Live from Miami
May 20, 2025
Disclosure
Brin: Google mostly uses custom TPUs over GPUs for Gemini
“Well, we mostly, for Gemini, we mostly use our own TPUs.”
Sergey Brin May 20, 2025 ▶ 25:41 Sergey Brin, Google Co-Founder | All-In Live from Miami
May 20, 2025 neutral
Disclosure
Brin: Google's newest, most computationally expensive AI models won't be free
“I don't think we're gonna like necessarily our latest and greatest models, which are, you know, take a lot of computation. I don't think we're gonna just be free to everybody right off the bat.”
Sergey Brin May 20, 2025 ▶ 30:39 Sergey Brin, Google Co-Founder | All-In Live from Miami
May 20, 2025 negative
Disclosure
Brin: Google internal policy briefly banned engineers from using Gemini
“Okay, I, like recently, I just had a big tiff inside the company, because we have this list of what you're allowed to use to code, and what you're not allowed to use to code, and Gemini was on the null list.”
Sergey Brin May 20, 2025 ▶ 15:16 Sergey Brin, Google Co-Founder | All-In Live from Miami
May 20, 2025
Disclosure
Brin: Open-plan offices make AI voice mode hard to use at work
“During work, I can't really use voice mode too much. I usually use it on the drive.”
Sergey Brin May 20, 2025 ▶ 28:44 Sergey Brin, Google Co-Founder | All-In Live from Miami
May 20, 2025
Disclosure
Brin returned to Google with no real executive responsibilities
“Feels privileged to be able to. Kind of go back to the company, not have. Any real executive responsibilities, but be able to actually go deep into every little pocket.”
Sergey Brin May 20, 2025 ▶ 4:43 Sergey Brin, Google Co-Founder | All-In Live from Miami
May 20, 2025
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Brin says returning code contributions were just minor access-related changelists
“The code I submitted wasn't very exciting. I think I needed to, like, add myself to get access to some things and, you know, a minor CL here or there.”
Sergey Brin May 20, 2025 ▶ 4:08 Sergey Brin, Google Co-Founder | All-In Live from Miami
May 20, 2025 positive
Disclosure
Brin: Google is internally testing third-party AI coding tools like Cursor
“No, we're trying to, you know, roll out every possible kind of AI and trying external ones, you know, be whatever the cursors of the world, all, all of those to just see what really makes people more productive.”
Sergey Brin May 20, 2025 ▶ 16:49 Sergey Brin, Google Co-Founder | All-In Live from Miami
May 24, 2025 neutral
Assertion Supported
Friedberg: Google launched $250/month AI Ultra subscription tier
“And they have this product offering called AI Ultra for 250 dollars a month that includes, you know, YouTube Premium. It includes 30 terabytes of storage on your Google account. It includes access to Flow, which is their movie creating AI model”
David Friedberg May 24, 2025 ▶ 40:22 Bond crisis looming? GOP abandons DOGE, Google disrupts Search with AI, OpenAI buys Jony Ive's IO
May 24, 2025 bullish
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Palihapitiya: Google will make AI search default within a year
“I suspect it'll be done in less than a year. And for a large swath of users, they are going to put AI in the front door. I think that's a fait accompli.”
Chamath Palihapitiya May 24, 2025 ▶ 45:07 Bond crisis looming? GOP abandons DOGE, Google disrupts Search with AI, OpenAI buys Jony Ive's IO
May 31, 2025 positive
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Palihapitiya: Meta and Google can fund frontier AI model development indefinitely
“Meta and Google, frankly, sit on these money gushers where they just generate so much capital that they can fund these things to infinity.”
Chamath Palihapitiya May 31, 2025 ▶ 9:54 AI Doom vs Boom, EA Cult Returns, BBB Upside, US Steel and Golden Votes
Jun 21, 2025 bullish
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Friedberg: Google develops graph-based AI models no competitors are close to
“There's a pretty sizable family of models, including a lot of these graph based models that are being used in really novel applications that no one else is even close to. No one's spending time on.”
David Friedberg Jun 21, 2025 ▶ 40:11 IPOs and SPACs are Back, Mag 7 Showdown, Zuck on Tilt, Apple's Fumble, GENIUS Act passes Senate
Jun 21, 2025 negative
Opinion
Chamath: Apple is missing out on top AI and machine learning talent
“I have to think that Apple is not getting any of those people. So by the time you end up at Apple, It's just a different caliber of person.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Jun 21, 2025 ▶ 44:23 IPOs and SPACs are Back, Mag 7 Showdown, Zuck on Tilt, Apple's Fumble, GENIUS Act passes Senate
Jun 21, 2025 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Chamath: Tesla and Google will lead AI superintelligence over next five years
“Tesla's one and Google's two. And the reason is because they are the closest to having that vertically integrated stack that I spoke about.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Jun 21, 2025 ▶ 30:47 IPOs and SPACs are Back, Mag 7 Showdown, Zuck on Tilt, Apple's Fumble, GENIUS Act passes Senate
Jun 21, 2025 bullish
Opinion
Friedberg ranks Google #1 among Mag 7 tech stocks for risk-adjusted returns
“The alpha and the beta adjusted Returns. I would put Google number one.”
David Friedberg Jun 21, 2025 ▶ 39:28 IPOs and SPACs are Back, Mag 7 Showdown, Zuck on Tilt, Apple's Fumble, GENIUS Act passes Senate
Jun 24, 2025 bullish
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Friedberg says Google leads in graph-based models with zero close competitors
“There's a pretty sizable family of models, including a lot of these graph based models that are being used in really novel applications that no one else is even close to. No one's spending time on.”
David Friedberg Jun 24, 2025 ▶ 10:32 Which Company Is Going To Win The AI Race? - David Friedberg
Jun 24, 2025 bullish
Opinion
Chamath: Google is well positioned to pivot monetization from clicks to tokens
“Google is extremely well positioned to pivot that to price per token. And I think that they have some emergent classes of physical AI, but they have the largest pool of people where they can generate a price per token value framework through YouTube, through G…”
Chamath Palihapitiya Jun 24, 2025 ▶ 2:45 Which Company Is Going To Win The AI Race? - David Friedberg
Jul 4, 2025 negative
Insight
Friedberg: A state patchwork of AI regulations makes national service practically impossible
“Having a patchwork of regulations on, for example, model development or telling software companies what software they can deploy would make it practically impossible for internet service providers like a Google or an OpenAI to service Customers across state bo…”
David Friedberg Jul 4, 2025 ▶ 5:57 Big Beautiful Bill, Elon/Trump, Dollar Down Big, Harvard's Money Problems, Figma IPO
Jul 11, 2025 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Rabois predicts Google Search will lose to AI competitors like ChatGPT
“I think Google's also, Google search, cross-search, is toast. And since they have Chrome and they theoretically have a quality team in Gemini, they should be putting these two things together and hoping to compete with Chad GPT. They're going to lose the searc…”
Keith Rabois Jul 11, 2025 ▶ 49:15 Grok 4 Wows, The Bitter Lesson, Third Party, AI Browsers, SCOTUS backs POTUS on RIFs
Jul 19, 2025
Assertion Supported
Friedberg: Google alone is spending $70 billion in CapEx this year
“Google alone is doing seventy billion this year.”
David Friedberg Jul 19, 2025 ▶ 30:38 Trump vs Powell, Solving the Debt Crisis, The $10T AGI Prize, GENIUS Act Becomes Law
Jul 19, 2025 bullish
Assertion Supported
Baker: Grok 4 performed twice as well as competitors on ARC-AGI II
“And so RKGI-II, it has not seen the questions before, and it did roughly twice as good as, you know, the state-of-the-art Google Open AI and anthropic models.”
Gavin Baker Jul 19, 2025 ▶ 20:25 Trump vs Powell, Solving the Debt Crisis, The $10T AGI Prize, GENIUS Act Becomes Law
Jul 19, 2025
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Baker: AI labs without major distribution partnerships must build browsers
“And if you're not going to strike a partnership with one of those distribution channels, you will eventually need to do your own browser”
Gavin Baker Jul 19, 2025 ▶ 37:57 Trump vs Powell, Solving the Debt Crisis, The $10T AGI Prize, GENIUS Act Becomes Law
Jul 24, 2025 positive
Assertion Supported
Trump claims Big Tech is investing $320 billion in AI infrastructure
“Meta, Amazon, Google, Microsoft are all investing three hundred and twenty billion dollars or more in data centers and AI infrastructure this year.”
Donald J. Trump Jul 24, 2025 ▶ 38:29 Winning the AI Race Part 5: President Trump on the AI Action Plan
Aug 9, 2025 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Calacanis: China will try to beat the US using commercial capitalism
“They're going to try to beat us on capitalism and then use brands like we've used brands like Apple and Google to defeat us.”
Jason Calacanis Aug 9, 2025 ▶ 30:40 OpenAI's GPT-5 Flop, AI's Unlimited Market, China's Big Advantage, Rise in Socialism, Housing Crisis
Aug 9, 2025 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Gavin Baker expects Google to release an impressive new Gemini model
“I would expect there to be a very, you know, an impressive new Gemini model, and we'll see how that lands relative to both Grok and GPT five.”
Gavin Baker Aug 9, 2025 ▶ 13:14 OpenAI's GPT-5 Flop, AI's Unlimited Market, China's Big Advantage, Rise in Socialism, Housing Crisis
Sep 12, 2025 positive
Assertion Supported
Hassabis says billions of people now interact with Google Gemini models
“So, you know, billions of people now interact with Gemini models, whether that's through AI overview, AI mode, or the Gemini app.”
Demis Hassabis Sep 12, 2025 ▶ 3:25 Inside Google DeepMind: AGI, Robotics, & World Models Explained - Demis Hassabis
Oct 2, 2025
Assertion Partly supported
Chamath: Trump pressured European regulators on Google's behalf after tech dinner
“One of the things that was mentioned was just the overwhelming pressure that the Europeans were putting on Google. I don't know if you remember this. And the day after, beyond making some calls, what he did was he put a pretty meaningful pressure campaign That…”
Chamath Palihapitiya Oct 2, 2025 ▶ 18:40 Ro Khanna Calls Out Both Parties: Immigration, Tech & Free Speech
Oct 24, 2025 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Palihapitiya predicts Google's undervalued assets will force business unit spin-offs
“But now you're going to get to this thing where the intrinsic value of everything they have will far exceed the actual value that it trades at. And so there'll always be these fissures of pressure. And then if one of these things requires a lot of money, there…”
Chamath Palihapitiya Oct 24, 2025 ▶ 36:47 NBA Gambling Scandal, Billionaire Tax, Tesla's Future, Amazon Robots, AWS Outage, Dangerous AI Bias
Oct 24, 2025 negative
Assertion Contradicted
Friedberg claims users abandoned Google Gemini over historically inaccurate, biased outputs
“When Gemini put out saying George Washington was black, people stopped using it. They're like, this thing's a joke.”
David Friedberg Oct 24, 2025 ▶ 1:12:30 NBA Gambling Scandal, Billionaire Tax, Tesla's Future, Amazon Robots, AWS Outage, Dangerous AI Bias
Oct 24, 2025 positive
Assertion Supported
Calacanis notes Google's revenue hit $350 billion despite a shrinking headcount
“Right now, they are in 2025 at 187,000. They were at 190,000 people in 2022. And their revenue has just gone from 283 to three hundred fifty billion in basically three years.”
Jason Calacanis Oct 24, 2025 ▶ 39:00 NBA Gambling Scandal, Billionaire Tax, Tesla's Future, Amazon Robots, AWS Outage, Dangerous AI Bias
Oct 24, 2025 negative
Opinion
Palihapitiya warns failing to IPO Waymo sets bad precedent for investors
“Now it's up to Google to live up to their part of the bargain, because if it doesn't get liquid, it sets a very bad precedent for everybody that committed capital into that company.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Oct 24, 2025 ▶ 38:13 NBA Gambling Scandal, Billionaire Tax, Tesla's Future, Amazon Robots, AWS Outage, Dangerous AI Bias
Oct 27, 2025 positive
Assertion Supported
Martinis: Chinese researchers successfully replicated Google's quantum supremacy experiment
“When I have read the papers that duplicated what we did at Google, On the quantum supremacy experiment. You know, they know what they're doing. I mean, they go through the theory, they talk about, a lot of it is very similar to what we're doing, but they know …”
John Martinis Oct 27, 2025 ▶ 41:17 Nobel Prize in Physics Winner: The Quantum Leap That Changed Everything - John Martinis
Oct 27, 2025
Disclosure
Martinis: Google offered the funding and retention needed for quantum hardware
“Although academia was great, it would be hard to get the team together and keep them together for a long time to build this complicated machine, and Google had the money, ok?”
John Martinis Oct 27, 2025 ▶ 29:19 Nobel Prize in Physics Winner: The Quantum Leap That Changed Everything - John Martinis
Oct 27, 2025 positive
Assertion Supported
Martinis: Google's 53-qubit experiment successfully demonstrated quantum supremacy
“We published this quantum supremacy experiment with 53 qubits, where we made a lot of qubits, and we made them really good, and, you know, fast and whatever, so that we could run some algorithm, mathematical algorithm, that what, we produced some output that w…”
John Martinis Oct 27, 2025 ▶ 29:50 Nobel Prize in Physics Winner: The Quantum Leap That Changed Everything - John Martinis
Oct 31, 2025 neutral
Disclosure
Musk: OpenAI was created as a counterweight to Google's AI monopoly
“The reason I wanted to create OpenAI was to serve as a counterweight to Google, because at the time Google was sort of, essentially had unilateral power in AI, that all the AI, essentially.”
Elon Musk Oct 31, 2025 ▶ 52:43 Elon Musk: OpenAI Betrayal, His Future at Tesla, and the Next Big Thing — Grokipedia
Oct 31, 2025 negative
Disclosure
Musk texted Sundar Pichai over Google Search omitting Grokipedia at launch
“I did send, I did text Sundar because, you know, even sort of a day after launch, if you typed in Grokipedia, Google would just say, did you mean Wikipedia? Wikipedia, yeah, yeah. And it wouldn't even bring Grokipedia up at all.”
Elon Musk Oct 31, 2025 ▶ 16:07 Elon Musk: OpenAI Betrayal, His Future at Tesla, and the Next Big Thing — Grokipedia
Nov 4, 2025 neutral
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Tareq Amin: Humain pays power tariffs equivalent to Google and AWS
“My rates, my tariff is equivalent to what Google would get to what AWS get.”
Tareq Amin Nov 4, 2025 ▶ 14:48 Inside Saudi Arabia’s AI Ambition: Tareq Amin on Building a New Tech Superpower
Nov 7, 2025 neutral
Prediction Held up
Apple will cede its AI business to Google, Chamath predicts
“Apple is now in this really interesting place where it seems like they're going to seed their AI business to Google and pay them billions of dollars a year like they get paid billions of dollars a year for search from them.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Nov 7, 2025 ▶ 7:24 Does OpenAI Need a Bailout? Mamdani Wins, Socialism Rising, Filibuster Nuclear Option
Nov 14, 2025 neutral
Assertion Partly supported
Friedberg: Google generated $120B in operating profit over past 12 months
“Google in the last 12 months, Made a hundred and twenty billion dollars in operating profit.”
David Friedberg Nov 14, 2025 ▶ 5:14 Home Affordability Crisis, Palantir's Advantage, Big Short on AI, H-1B Abuse, Solar Storm Hits Earth
Nov 22, 2025 bullish
Assertion Supported
Chamath: Google's AI chat market share doubled to 16% in one month
“Google is, I don't know if you saw the stats, but they went from like eight percent share to like 16% share of the entire chat market as of like this last month.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Nov 22, 2025 ▶ 36:41 Epstein Files Fallout, Nvidia Risks, Burry's Bad Bet, Google's Breakthrough, Tether's Boom
Nov 22, 2025 neutral
What-if
Friedberg: Depreciating Google's chips over 3 years reduces net profit 10-12%
“In Google's case, their total net profit would come down by roughly 10 to 12%.”
David Friedberg Nov 22, 2025 ▶ 28:04 Epstein Files Fallout, Nvidia Risks, Burry's Bad Bet, Google's Breakthrough, Tether's Boom
Nov 22, 2025 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Chamath: Google will cannibalize its search business with AI
“What this creates Is the setup where now they can cannibalize themselves versus having their market cannibalized for them. That's still going to be a very tough decision for Google to make and it's going to happen.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Nov 22, 2025 ▶ 37:51 Epstein Files Fallout, Nvidia Risks, Burry's Bad Bet, Google's Breakthrough, Tether's Boom
Nov 22, 2025 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Calacanis: Google search will grow, while OpenAI will lose market share
“I think the search franchise is going to grow, and that Google is not going to lose to ChatGPT, and I think the big loser in all this is going to be OpenAI, because they started with a hundred percent of the market, and they're only going down, and they're fac…”
Jason Calacanis Nov 22, 2025 ▶ 38:21 Epstein Files Fallout, Nvidia Risks, Burry's Bad Bet, Google's Breakthrough, Tether's Boom
Dec 6, 2025 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Calacanis: Consumer paid subscriptions for AI chat will fall to zero
“Right now, 80% of the revenue comes from 20 dollar subscriptions. That's going to get decimated to zero. I don't think consumers are going to pay For this product, just like they won't pay for search, and they won't pay for a browser, because Google and Meta w…”
Jason Calacanis Dec 6, 2025 ▶ 16:08 OpenAI's Code Red, Sacks vs New York Times, New Poverty Line?
Dec 6, 2025 bearish
Prediction Open · timeframe Dec 2030
Calacanis: Google will make top Gemini models free for life
“They're going to make Gemini free for life for the best models. That's my prediction for Google, and I think Meta will be right behind them.”
Jason Calacanis Dec 6, 2025 ▶ 15:33 OpenAI's Code Red, Sacks vs New York Times, New Poverty Line?
Dec 24, 2025 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Jason Calacanis predicts Google will eventually kill ChatGPT
“Hey, ChatGPT is probably gonna get killed by Google, ah, so.”
Jason Calacanis Dec 24, 2025 ▶ 51:43 All-In x Kill Tony: A Hilarious Holiday Special
Jan 10, 2026 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Calacanis: OpenAI will continue losing market share to Google and xAI
“And for my contrarian, I was thinking about going with OpenAI losing their lead and not being the number one company again, because I do think that will be the trend that they will have the, they'll continue to give up Their market share to other players, incl…”
Jason Calacanis Jan 10, 2026 ▶ 1:02:14 All-In's 2026 Predictions
Jan 31, 2026 bullish
Opinion
Sachs: Google is tremendously positioned to win personal AI assistants
“So I think Google is in a tremendous position to offer a personal AI system that's connected with your email and calendar.”
David Sacks Jan 31, 2026 ▶ 52:56 ICE Chaos in Minneapolis, Clawdbot Takeover, Why the Dollar is Dropping
Mar 6, 2026 bullish
Opinion
Emil Michael: Google holds long-term AI advantage due to owned cloud infrastructure
“I do think Google has a long-term strategic advantage, not because, not only because of their consumer thing, but because they have their own cloud. So between them, they don't have the margin on top of the cloud that Anthropical have to pass on, so it's an in…”
Emil Michael Mar 6, 2026 ▶ 1:06:11 War with Iran + Pentagon vs Anthropic with Under Secretary of War Emil Michael
Mar 6, 2026 neutral
Assertion Supported
Emil Michael: Pentagon is working to bring Google AI to classified networks
“We have Google for all lawful use cases on, on classified networks, and we're trying to move them to classified networks. They're just, They have to build out infrastructure because this stuff's complicated.”
Emil Michael Mar 6, 2026 ▶ 52:30 War with Iran + Pentagon vs Anthropic with Under Secretary of War Emil Michael
Mar 6, 2026 neutral
Prediction Held up
Friedberg: Google will replicate Anthropic Cowork within 90 days
“I will also say that it's only going to take 90 days for Google to flip on a virtual version of co-work.”
David Friedberg Mar 6, 2026 ▶ 1:04:33 War with Iran + Pentagon vs Anthropic with Under Secretary of War Emil Michael
Mar 6, 2026 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Friedberg: Google will sweep market after integrating co-work into G Suite
“And once Google, like, has this integrated with G Suite and you have a virtual hosted version of co-work, I think Google sweeps the market with this same competitor.”
David Friedberg Mar 6, 2026 ▶ 1:04:40 War with Iran + Pentagon vs Anthropic with Under Secretary of War Emil Michael
Mar 17, 2026 bullish
Opinion
Kalanick: Tesla is the Google of the physical AI era
“They are the Google of this era, which is what I mean by that is in the 2000, if you were doing a startup in the 2000, the first question you would get. Is why isn't Google going to kill you? Or why isn't Google just going to do it? They're not going to know t…”
Travis Kalanick Mar 17, 2026 ▶ 10:24 Two Legendary Founders: Travis Kalanick & Michael Dell Live from Austin, Texas
Mar 23, 2026
Insight
Srinivas: Big Tech AI labs cannot aggregate rival models without admitting failure
“It makes no sense for them. It would be an admission that all the data centers in CapEx they've built out still couldn't produce them the best model.”
Aravind Srinivas Mar 23, 2026 ▶ 48:41 Four CEOs on the Future of AI: CoreWeave, Perplexity, Mistral, and IREN
Mar 27, 2026 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Calacanis: All consumer AI queries will eventually be free
“My base case here is that all consumer queries are going to be free. Apple's going to make them free. They're already free for Google. I think Meta is going to make them free and actually have a decent product soon, and Microsoft, same thing.”
Jason Calacanis Mar 27, 2026 ▶ 20:24 Anthropic's Generational Run, OpenAI Panics, AI Moats, Meta Loses Major Lawsuits
Mar 27, 2026 bullish
Insight
Sacks: Google has a major trust advantage for autonomous AI agents
“I also think that Google is in an outstanding position to do the whole open claw thing. Because they already have access to your calendar, your documents, your email. So the agent doesn't really have to earn your trust because you already trust Google with all…”
David Sacks Mar 27, 2026 ▶ 25:31 Anthropic's Generational Run, OpenAI Panics, AI Moats, Meta Loses Major Lawsuits
Apr 10, 2026 positive
Assertion Supported
Gerstner: Google, OpenAI, and Anthropic actively coordinate on safety
“The Frontier Model Forum, which was put together in 23 is cooperating on anti and adversarial distillation stuff as we speak, right? They don't want to make it easy on, you know, so Google and OpenAI and Anthropic, they're coordinating on this stuff.”
Brad Gerstner Apr 10, 2026 ▶ 18:56 Anthropic’s $30B Ramp, Mythos Doomsday, OpenClaw Ankled, Iran War Ceasefire, Israel's Influence
Apr 10, 2026 bullish
Prediction Held up
Gerstner predicts OpenAI and Google will sandbox frontier AI models
“I think that OpenAI will end up doing the same thing. I think Google will end up doing the same thing.”
Brad Gerstner Apr 10, 2026 ▶ 8:26 Anthropic’s $30B Ramp, Mythos Doomsday, OpenClaw Ankled, Iran War Ceasefire, Israel's Influence
May 1, 2026 negative
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Sacks: Google taking market share caused OpenAI to miss consumer targets
“I would say that if there's a single reason why open AI did not hit its user targets and its revenue targets, certainly around consumer, you'd have to say it's because Google managed to take meaningful share.”
David Sacks May 1, 2026 ▶ 18:39 OpenAI Misses Targets, Codex vs Claude, Elon vs Sam Trial, Big Hyperscaler Beats, Peptide Craze
May 1, 2026 neutral
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Friedberg: Consumer AI will be a ChatGPT-Google fight, Anthropic third
“The consumer market looks like it's trending towards a chat GPT slash Google fight for first place and second place, and then probably anthropic in third place, and maybe Elon emerges and takes off enabled by his compute capacity.”
David Friedberg May 1, 2026 ▶ 13:58 OpenAI Misses Targets, Codex vs Claude, Elon vs Sam Trial, Big Hyperscaler Beats, Peptide Craze
May 22, 2026 neutral
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Gavin Baker: Only xAI, Google, OpenAI, and Anthropic are AI frontier companies
“And the companies on the frontier are XAI with one build of Grok 4.3, which is a five hundred billion parameter model. Google, 3.1 pro, and then OpenAI and Anthropic, and that's it. Those are the companies on the frontier.”
Gavin Baker May 22, 2026 ▶ 53:14 SpaceX’s $2T Case, Nvidia’s Shock Selloff, America Turns on AI, Trump Pulls AI Order, Bond Crisis?
May 22, 2026 negative
Assertion Supported
Calacanis: Google included 4GB Gemini Nano in Chrome without telling users
“Chrome included Gemini or Google included in their Chrome browser, the Gemini Nano model without telling anybody four gigabytes on your computer.”
Jason Calacanis May 22, 2026 ▶ 9:25 SpaceX’s $2T Case, Nvidia’s Shock Selloff, America Turns on AI, Trump Pulls AI Order, Bond Crisis?
May 22, 2026 bullish
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Gavin Baker: Major tech firms are convinced orbital compute will become reality
“Google, Anthropic, Amazon, NVIDIA. They are all very convinced that orbital compute is going to be reality, and obviously SpaceX is extraordinarily well positioned for that.”
Gavin Baker May 22, 2026 ▶ 52:41 SpaceX’s $2T Case, Nvidia’s Shock Selloff, America Turns on AI, Trump Pulls AI Order, Bond Crisis?
May 29, 2026
Assertion Supported
Calacanis: Amazon, Google, and Meta lobbied Vatican on AI encyclical
“The folks at Amazon, Google, and Meta lobbied the Vatican on April, 29th to soften the language in his missive.”
Jason Calacanis May 29, 2026 ▶ 19:32 Anthropic's Digital God, Pope vs AI, Job Loss Narrative Flips, Open Source Crackdown Coming?
Jun 2, 2026
Insight
Friar: Markets reward long-term durability over being first to IPO
“In the end, the market is a weighing machine, not a popularity machine. No one remembers who went first, Google or Yahoo, Lyft or Uber”
Sarah Friar Jun 2, 2026 ▶ 2:32 OpenAI CFO Sarah Friar: IPO, AI Rivalries, New Device, and Spending $100B+ on Compute
Jun 4, 2026
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Laffont: About 25% of Meta and Google ads are currently AI-enabled
“We estimate, currently, that about a quarter of ads served by Meta and Google are AI-enabled.”
Thomas Laffont Jun 4, 2026 ▶ 15:38 Thomas Laffont: The $4T AI IPO Wave Is Coming… and We’ve Never Seen Anything Like It
Jun 6, 2026 positive
Disclosure
Planet Labs launched NVIDIA GPUs in space and is testing Google TPUs
“So we're partnering, ah, with Google to launch some of their TPUs into space. We've already launched NVIDIA's, ah, some of NVIDIA's GPUs into space. We're launching Google's TPUs into space on an early test.”
Will Marshall Jun 6, 2026 ▶ 17:19 The IPO Comeback: Why Tech Giants Are Finally Going Public | All-In Liquidity IPO Panel
Jun 8, 2026 bullish
Prediction Open · timeframe Jun 2031
Arora: Google will be the first $10 trillion company
“I think Google's underrated. I think it's going to be the first 10 trillion dollar company in our lifetime.”
Nikesh Arora Jun 8, 2026 ▶ 21:39 Palo Alto Networks CEO: "AI Found 5 Years of Bugs in 6 Weeks"
Jun 9, 2026 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Maris: Google slashing Gemini prices by 80% would crush AI competitors
“Well, if you're a company, and you can go to Google and Gemini, and you can pay 80% less for that Basically identical product. Why wouldn't you do that? And then the compression and the pressure on those other businesses goes super critical.”
Bill Maris Jun 9, 2026 ▶ 15:01 Bill Maris: How Google Could Crush AI Competitors, Why Small Funds Win, and AI's Atari Stage
Jun 9, 2026
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Google forbade using the term 'AI' for years after GV launched
“At that time, Google would not let us use the term AI. And this persisted for many years.”
Bill Maris Jun 9, 2026 ▶ 6:54 Bill Maris: How Google Could Crush AI Competitors, Why Small Funds Win, and AI's Atari Stage
Jul 21, 2026 negative
Assertion Supported
Cuban: Tech leaders like Google and Meta are borrowing billions
“What's happening now is the market leaders, Google, et cetera, Meta, they're borrowing hundreds of millions, billions of dollars.”
Mark Cuban Jul 21, 2026 ▶ 2:14 Mark Cuban on the AI Bubble: Who Actually Gets Wiped Out?
Jul 24, 2026 bullish
Insight
Chamath: AI model fragmentation directly benefits Google's custom silicon
“The best thing that can happen to them is 500 different models proliferate, and they support all of them because they will make so much money at the silicon layer.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Jul 24, 2026 ▶ 1:10:48 The Fight Over Open Source AI, Anthropic's $1.5B Payout, NYC Socialists: Evictions = Violence?
Jul 24, 2026
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Friedberg: Early Google benchmarked against millions of Yahoo and Microsoft search results
“At Google in the early days, we would submit millions of search queries to Yahoo and Microsoft search engines to see what the results sets were. And we would compare our results against their results as a way of improving our search engine rankings and our alg…”
David Friedberg Jul 24, 2026 ▶ 15:57 The Fight Over Open Source AI, Anthropic's $1.5B Payout, NYC Socialists: Evictions = Violence?
Jul 24, 2026 neutral
Assertion Partly supported
Calacanis: Publishers are opting out of Google Search over AI crawler
“There's a new trend happening now, Friedberg. There, a lot of content providers are saying to Google, take us out of the index, because Google has one bot, and that bot does the Google crawl, and that bot also does the AI crawl.”
Jason Calacanis Jul 24, 2026 ▶ 1:02:56 The Fight Over Open Source AI, Anthropic's $1.5B Payout, NYC Socialists: Evictions = Violence?
Jul 24, 2026 positive
Assertion Supported
Chamath Palihapitiya: Google compounded money at 32% ROIC over 20 years
“When you are a machine and a group of people and a business model that compounds money at 32% over a twenty-year average, you give these guys the benefit of the doubt.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Jul 24, 2026 ▶ 1:09:59 The Fight Over Open Source AI, Anthropic's $1.5B Payout, NYC Socialists: Evictions = Violence?
Jul 24, 2026 bullish
Opinion
Friedberg: Google is the best public market stock for betting on AI
“So if you want to bet an AI, I think the best public market stock to own is Google.”
David Friedberg Jul 24, 2026 ▶ 1:14:43 The Fight Over Open Source AI, Anthropic's $1.5B Payout, NYC Socialists: Evictions = Violence?
Aug 7, 2026 neutral
Assertion Supported
Friedberg: Google committed $200B in CapEx to AI data centers this year
“Google has made a commitment to deploy two hundred billion dollars in capex this year in AI infrastructure data center build out.”
David Friedberg Aug 7, 2026 ▶ 3:50 Google’s AI Brain Drain, SpaceX's Huge Quarter, Airtable’s 90% Collapse, US Data Fuels China AI
Aug 7, 2026 bullish
Assertion Partly supported
Calacanis: Gemini surpassed 950 million MAUs in Q2
“In Q two, Gemini had over 950 monthly active users tripling year over year.”
Jason Calacanis Aug 7, 2026 ▶ 13:34 Google’s AI Brain Drain, SpaceX's Huge Quarter, Airtable’s 90% Collapse, US Data Fuels China AI
Aug 7, 2026 positive
Opinion
Sacks: Frontier AI intelligence is now an Anthropic-OpenAI duopoly
“Now we're really down to just anthropic and open AI. So the market for frontier intelligence has become a duopoly.”
David Sacks Aug 7, 2026 ▶ 10:13 Google’s AI Brain Drain, SpaceX's Huge Quarter, Airtable’s 90% Collapse, US Data Fuels China AI
Aug 7, 2026 positive
Assertion Supported
Friedberg: Google owns significant stakes in SpaceX and Anthropic
“They have a significant ownership stake in SpaceX and in Anthropic, and they can work with all the open weights models.”
David Friedberg Aug 7, 2026 ▶ 6:08 Google’s AI Brain Drain, SpaceX's Huge Quarter, Airtable’s 90% Collapse, US Data Fuels China AI
Aug 7, 2026 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Calacanis: Google will lead in consumer AI usage by far this year
“They will be the number one AI company in terms of consumer usage by far, I think, this year.”
Jason Calacanis Aug 7, 2026 ▶ 13:40 Google’s AI Brain Drain, SpaceX's Huge Quarter, Airtable’s 90% Collapse, US Data Fuels China AI
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