NATO

includes NATO Allies

40 statements across 29 episodes · 6 bullish · 18 bearish · 13 people on the record · first statement Dec 29, 2021 by David Friedberg · said 362 times in 77 episodes since 2021 · across every show →

Mentions by year, the whole family

brought up most by David Sacks (151), Jason Calacanis (107), Chamath Palihapitiya (36), David Friedberg (25), Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (6), Jeffrey Sachs (6), Glenn Greenwald (4), Brad Gerstner (3)

tap a year for its mentions
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01325202120222023202420252026episodes it came up in
00313625202120222023202420252026episodesmentions per episode
2026 18 mentions in 7 episodes 3 per episode
2025 51 mentions in 14 episodes 4 per episode
2024 79 mentions in 14 episodes 6 per episode
2023 84 mentions in 16 episodes 5 per episode
2022 128 mentions in 24 episodes 5 per episode
2021 2 mentions in 2 episodes 1 per episode

every mention, scene by scene, with the transcript →

Everything said about NATO, oldest first

Dec 29, 2021 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
David Friedberg predicts Vladimir Putin will strengthen his geopolitical position against NATO
“And I think Putin will become a stronger player on the global stage, particularly as it relates to his relationship with NATO. Over the next year and he's been a little bit quiet the last few years. He was kind of, I'd say, suppressed with sanctions and all th…”
David Friedberg Dec 29, 2021 ▶ 8:25 E61: 2022 Predictions! Business, politics, science, tech, crypto, & more
Jan 29, 2022 negative
Opinion
Sachs: Adding Ukraine or Georgia to NATO provides no US security benefit
“We should not want to add Ukraine or Georgia to NATO. That would do nothing to enhance the security of the United States.”
David Sacks Jan 29, 2022 ▶ 24:35 E65: VC markup dynamics, Russia/US tensions over Ukraine, Altos Labs raises $3B, Stripe mafia & more
Jan 29, 2022 positive
Opinion
Friedberg: Putin's behavior is rational and he seeks to avoid conflict
“His behavior is very rational in response to what's gone on for 30 years. And his requests are that he is feeling threatened and he is trying to avoid military conflict as much as he can.”
David Friedberg Jan 29, 2022 ▶ 28:56 E65: VC markup dynamics, Russia/US tensions over Ukraine, Altos Labs raises $3B, Stripe mafia & more
Feb 5, 2022 neutral
Opinion
Sacks: Reaffirming Ukraine won't join NATO would defuse tensions with Russia
“If we would just give up on that position or just reaffirm that Ukraine should not be admitted to NATO, it would enormously help defuse tensions with Russia.”
David Sacks Feb 5, 2022 ▶ 1:34:31 E66: $FB's big drop, Rogan/Spotify mess, Xi/Putin meetup & supply chain issues with Ryan Petersen
Feb 25, 2022
Assertion Supported
Sacks: Bill Burns's 2008 memo called Ukrainian NATO entry Russia's brightest red line
“In 2008, he wrote a memo To Condoleezza Rice, who was then the Secretary of State, and what he said is, this is about Ukrainian entry into NATO, he said, Ukrainian entry into NATO is the brightest of all red lines for the Russian elite, not just Putin.”
David Sacks Feb 25, 2022 ▶ 38:57 E70: EMERGENCY POD! Russia invades Ukraine: Reactions, Putin's ambition, Biden's response and more
Feb 25, 2022 negative
Prediction Open · timeframe Feb 2027
Sacks: Ukraine will not become a member of NATO
“Ukraine is not going to be a member of NATO.”
David Sacks Feb 25, 2022 ▶ 9:35 E70: EMERGENCY POD! Russia invades Ukraine: Reactions, Putin's ambition, Biden's response and more
Feb 25, 2022 neutral
What-if
Sacks: Affirming NATO exclusion for Ukraine might have defused conflict with Russia
“If we had been willing to basically affirm That we believe in Ukraine's sovereignty, but they are not a part of NATO. That might have diffused this conflict.”
David Sacks Feb 25, 2022 ▶ 3:12 E70: EMERGENCY POD! Russia invades Ukraine: Reactions, Putin's ambition, Biden's response and more
Feb 25, 2022 negative
Opinion
Sacks: Blinken stating NATO's door remains open was highly provocative
“Blinken came out with this statement, NATO's door is open and will remain open. It was perhaps the most provocative thing he could have said in that situation.”
David Sacks Feb 25, 2022 ▶ 9:47 E70: EMERGENCY POD! Russia invades Ukraine: Reactions, Putin's ambition, Biden's response and more
Mar 5, 2022
What-if
Calacanis: Preemptively ruling out Ukraine in NATO would have mattered
“If we had done it preemptively, it would have made a difference.”
Jason Calacanis Mar 5, 2022 ▶ 32:36 E71: Russia/Ukraine deep dive: escalation, risk factors, financial fallout, exit ramps and more
Mar 5, 2022 negative
Insight
Sacks: Enforcing a Ukraine no-fly zone means direct war with Russia
“What a no-fly zone means is that you're going to shoot down Russian planes. That's what it means. You are going to war. It may not be boots on the ground. It's boots in the sky.”
David Sacks Mar 5, 2022 ▶ 7:10 E71: Russia/Ukraine deep dive: escalation, risk factors, financial fallout, exit ramps and more
Mar 26, 2022
Assertion Partly supported
Sacks: Zelensky revealed Blinken privately ruled out NATO membership for Ukraine
“Just this week, Zelensky in an interview with Fried Zakaria admitted he was told by Blinken You will not be part of NATO, but we don't want to admit that publicly.”
David Sacks Mar 26, 2022 ▶ 1:03:32 E73: Late-stage VC markdowns and mistakes, market strategy, Ukraine/Russia update with Brad Gerstner
Apr 1, 2022
Prediction Open · timeframe Apr 2027
Sacks predicts Russia-Ukraine war will end in Ukrainian neutrality and NATO exclusion
“Ukraine's gonna be neutral, they can't be part of NATO, they get some security guarantees from the West in exchange for that.”
David Sacks Apr 1, 2022 ▶ 1:30:03 E74: Market update, inverted yield curve, immigration, new SPAC rules, $FB smears TikTok and more
May 25, 2022 negative
Opinion
Garcia Martinez: NATO expanded due to Russian aggression, not vice versa
“Russia's not aggressive because, so hold on a second, let me finish the thought. Right, right, no, hold on. Russia's, let me respond to the point that you've sat there for two minutes staring at. Russia is not surrounded by NATO. Russia isn't aggressive becaus…”
Antonio Garcia Martinez May 25, 2022 ▶ 25:42 #AIS: Antonio Garcia Martinez & Glenn Greenwald debate Ukraine, moderated by David Sacks
Sep 1, 2022
Assertion Supported
Sacks: US broke 1990 pledge to Gorbachev not to expand NATO eastward
“Baker made the promise to Gorbachev, not one inch eastward. Gorbachev said, yes, ok, they can reunify, but we do not want NATO moving up to our border. Baker made that promise. We have brought NATO up to their border.”
David Sacks Sep 1, 2022 ▶ 1:19:21 E94: NFT volume plummets, California's overreach, FBI meddling, climate change & national security
Sep 10, 2022 negative
Assertion Partly supported
Sacks: NATO expansion contradicted U.S. assurances given to Mikhail Gorbachev
“This was basically a contradiction of the verbal assurances that James Baker and President George Herbert Walker Bush had given Gorbachev that we would not expand NATO one inch eastward.”
David Sacks Sep 10, 2022 ▶ 39:46 E95: Winter is Coming, Europe's energy crisis, Kim Kardashian's new PE firm & more
Sep 17, 2022 negative
Opinion
Sacks: US State Department failed to avoid war by refusing NATO guarantees
“The question is, did the US State Department do everything they could to avoid this war? And my point is, absolutely not. They should have taken this Ukraine issue off the table in writing before the invasion.”
David Sacks Sep 17, 2022 ▶ 1:16:11 E96: Adobe acquires Figma for $20B, TPB SPAC, FedEx CEO's recession warning, macro picture & more
Oct 14, 2022 neutral
Assertion Partly supported
Sacks: Prominent foreign policy figures historically warned against NATO expansion
“Back in the 19 nineties, you had people like George Kennan, who was the architect of our Cold War containment policy. You had William J. Perry was Bill Clinton's defense secretary. You had Henry Kissinger, you had John Mearsheimer, all warned that bringing NAT…”
David Sacks Oct 14, 2022 ▶ 24:21 E100: Reflecting on the first 100 shows, fan questions, nuclear threat, markets, Amazon & more
Feb 24, 2023 neutral
What-if
Chamath: Trump would have blocked NATO expansion, preventing Putin's invasion
“So I think he would have shut the door so ferociously on Ukraine and NATO, and anybody that crossed that line, he would have tarred and feathered publicly. And I think the end result would have been that Putin could have found an off ramp well before he invade…”
Chamath Palihapitiya Feb 24, 2023 ▶ 1:12:29 E117: Did Stripe miss its window? Plus: VC market update, AI comes for SaaS, Trump's savvy move
May 5, 2023 negative
Assertion Supported
RFK Jr. asserts the US broke a pledge not to expand NATO east
“We gave our word that we would not expand NATO one inch to the east, and now we've gone into 13 countries.”
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. May 5, 2023 ▶ 17:04 In conversation with Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Jun 24, 2023
Assertion Supported
Sacks: Istanbul outline required Russian withdrawal for Ukrainian NATO neutrality
“What the deal would have provided is that the Russians would move back to pre-war lines if the Ukrainians would agree not to become a member of NATO.”
David Sacks Jun 24, 2023 ▶ 20:50 E134: Ukraine counteroffensive, China tensions, COVID Patient Zero, RFK Jr reaction & more
Jul 14, 2023 negative
Assertion Contradicted
Sacks: NATO members must spend 2% GDP on approved Western defense contractors
“Because all these countries, when they join NATO, agree to spend two percent of their GDP on defense. And they can only spend that money on defense contractors who are interoperable with the NATO platform, which is basically these approved Western contractors.”
David Sacks Jul 14, 2023 ▶ 1:17:14 E137: Inflation cools, market rips, Ripple/MSFT beat regulators, NATO summit, cocktails of youth
Jul 14, 2023 negative
Opinion
Sacks: Adding countries to NATO is a liability, not an asset, for the US
“Every time you add a country to NATO, you're making a commitment for Americans to have to go defend that country. And I would argue that's a liability, not an asset for America.”
David Sacks Jul 14, 2023 ▶ 1:17:03 E137: Inflation cools, market rips, Ripple/MSFT beat regulators, NATO summit, cocktails of youth
Jul 21, 2023 neutral
What-if
Ramaswamy: Refusing NATO expansion would have prevented Russian invasion of Ukraine
“Because I don't think that we would have, if I was president, I don't think we would have gotten to the point of those things rolling in. Angela Merkel made some disastrous comments. Putin made a hard demand. We would have said hard no to Ukraine joining NATO,…”
Vivek Ramaswamy Jul 21, 2023 ▶ 34:00 In conversation with Vivek Ramaswamy
Sep 8, 2023 bullish
Prediction Open · timeframe Sep 2028
Chris Christie: Ukraine joining NATO is a foregone conclusion
“I think it is now a foregone conclusion that Ukraine will be admitted to NATO, and frankly, it's got to be now, I think, one of the penalties and one of the prices that Putin pays for his aggression.”
Chris Christie Sep 8, 2023 ▶ 28:05 In conversation with Chris Christie
Nov 11, 2023 neutral
Disclosure
Kushner: Trump administration armed Ukraine while discouraging NATO membership pursuit
“We armed Ukraine, but we also told Ukraine, you know, don't even think about raising NATO as a membership, as a way to go.”
Jared Kushner Nov 11, 2023 ▶ 1:28:54 Jared Kushner: Israel-Hamas War, paths forward, macro picture, AI
Jan 6, 2024 negative
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Friedberg: Turkey faces risk of being challenged in NATO in 2024
“I think there's a risk that Turkey gets challenged to leave NATO. That a lot of what's going on right now where Turkey is siding with Hamas, this has obviously been talked about and rumored about for a long time. There's no real mechanism, by the way, for kick…”
David Friedberg Jan 6, 2024 ▶ 47:01 E160: 2024 Predictions! Markets, tech, politics, and more
Feb 17, 2024 positive
Opinion
Chamath: Bill Clinton is too thoughtful to casually suggest Russia join NATO
“And also Clinton, who is so steeped in history, And policy is not somebody that would say something like that in an uncalculated way only to pull back. That does not seem, and I know Bill Clinton, that is not who he is. So just in that context, he is a very th…”
Chamath Palihapitiya Feb 17, 2024 ▶ 1:37:48 E166: Mind-blowing AI Video: OpenAI launches Sora + Is Biden too old? Tucker/Putin interview & more
Feb 17, 2024 negative
Assertion Partly supported
Sacks: The US reneged on promise to Gorbachev not to expand NATO
“The US reneged on this promise to Gorbachev not to expand NATO one inch eastward. And instead we began multiple waves of NATO expansion.”
David Sacks Feb 17, 2024 ▶ 1:39:10 E166: Mind-blowing AI Video: OpenAI launches Sora + Is Biden too old? Tucker/Putin interview & more
Apr 5, 2024
Insight
Sacks: NATO membership depends on member interests, not candidate rights
“Countries don't have a right to join NATO any more than I have a right to join Augusta Country Club. Just because I'm a golf player doesn't mean I get to join Augusta, okay? It's up to the current membership of Augusta or NATO to decide whether they're going t…”
David Sacks Apr 5, 2024 ▶ 1:27:42 E173: Google buying HubSpot? FTX depositors not made whole, AI job fears, Ukraine joining NATO
Apr 5, 2024
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Friedberg: White House will confirm Blinken's Ukraine-NATO remarks as official policy
“At the next White House press conference, you will hear the question asked by reporters, is this the White House position? And they will say, yes, it is.”
David Friedberg Apr 5, 2024 ▶ 1:21:50 E173: Google buying HubSpot? FTX depositors not made whole, AI job fears, Ukraine joining NATO
Apr 5, 2024 negative
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Friedberg: Admitting Ukraine to NATO will cause a global world war
“I think the statements are correct, that Ukraine joining NATO escalates conflict, and we will find ourselves in a de facto global conflict, world war.”
David Friedberg Apr 5, 2024 ▶ 1:16:56 E173: Google buying HubSpot? FTX depositors not made whole, AI job fears, Ukraine joining NATO
Apr 5, 2024
What-if
Calacanis: US should have deferred Ukraine's NATO membership by 20 years
“Clearly the right move here would have been to kick the can down the road and just tell Putin, we'll take it off. We'll take needle off the table for 10 years or 20 years, and then we could have outlasted Putin.”
Jason Calacanis Apr 5, 2024 ▶ 1:28:40 E173: Google buying HubSpot? FTX depositors not made whole, AI job fears, Ukraine joining NATO
Jun 20, 2024 negative
Opinion
Trump says talk of Ukraine joining NATO caused the Russia-Ukraine war
“So for 20 years, I heard that NATO if Ukraine goes into NATO, it's a real problem for Russia. I've heard that for a long time. And I think that's really why this war started.”
Donald J. Trump Jun 20, 2024 ▶ 22:58 In conversation with President Trump
Jun 20, 2024 negative
Assertion Contradicted
Sacks: Blinken told Russia US wanted Ukraine in NATO with nuclear weapons
“And you know, it turns out that the month before the Russians invaded, Blinken told Lavrov that the administration was not only going to bring Ukraine into NATO, but that they thought it was okay for the United States to put nuclear weapons in Ukraine.”
David Sacks Jun 20, 2024 ▶ 24:01 In conversation with President Trump
Oct 3, 2024 positive
Opinion
Mark Cuban: US should provide financial aid to Ukraine rather than deploy soldiers
“Ukraine, I don't want to see American blood spilled, and as long as there's a NATO, and I agree there should be a NATO, I'd rather see us spend money than put soldiers in harm's way.”
Mark Cuban Oct 3, 2024 ▶ 1:08:20 Mark Cuban: Love/Hate Relationship with Trump, Why He's Backing Kamala Harris
Nov 23, 2024 neutral
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Sacks: Russia only had two explicit red lines in Ukraine conflict
“If you actually listen to what the Russians have said, there's only been two red lines. The first red line was they said they would not accept NATO expanding to Ukraine, and they proved their seriousness on that issue by invading Ukraine in February of 2022. T…”
David Sacks Nov 23, 2024 ▶ 49:46 DOGE unveils a roadmap, Unlocking GDP Growth, WW3 escalation, Fat cell memory
Mar 8, 2025 negative
Opinion
Friedberg: NATO is no longer as necessary in a world of abundance
“So I would argue maybe NATO in a multipolar world of abundance isn't as necessary as it has been in the past century, which was a world that was limited in resources, Fighting for access and a growing global population, particularly in the developed world in t…”
David Friedberg Mar 8, 2025 ▶ 1:22:52 Tariffs, Trump's Economic Endgame, Market Chaos, Bitcoin Reserve, CoreWeave IPO
Jul 23, 2025 positive
Disclosure
Vance: Foreign leader proposed non-European NATO alternative using US tech stack
“A foreign leader came to me relatively recently, this is actually last week small country, but very important country strategically, very good ally of the United States, and basically pitched me On creating a NATO alternative outside of Europe, but where count…”
JD Vance Jul 23, 2025 ▶ 13:11 Winning the AI Race Part 2: Vice President JD Vance
Dec 13, 2025 negative
Opinion
Tucker Carlson calls NATO the most destructive force the US belongs to
“NATO is like the single most destructive force that we're a part of, way more than the UN.”
Tucker Carlson Dec 13, 2025 ▶ 1:29:56 Tucker Carlson: Rise of Nick Fuentes, Paramount vs Netflix, Anti-AI Sentiment, Hottest Takes
Aug 29, 2026 negative
Opinion
Sacks: Claims of Russian ambitions to conquer Europe are baseless threat inflation
“This is the same kind of threat inflation that we've heard for years from neocons about Russia's supposedly Imperial ambitions to conquer all of Europe. There's simply no basis for believing it.”
David Sacks Aug 29, 2026 ▶ 1:17:33 Nvidia's Historic Quarter, SaaS Comeback, Bessent vs Druck, America's Debt Crisis, Cancer Vaccine
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