Facebook

also referred to as: facebook meta · meta

includes Facebook Marketplace, Facebook Messenger, Facebook Zero, Facebook Beacon, Facebook Connect, Facebook Home, Facebook Oversight Board, Facebook Board

194 statements across 110 episodes · 46 bullish · 88 bearish · 22 people on the record · first statement Mar 15, 2020 by Chamath Palihapitiya · said 1,221 times in 268 episodes since 2020 · across every show →

Mentions by year, the whole family

brought up most by Jason Calacanis (435), Chamath Palihapitiya (413), David Sacks (150), David Friedberg (118), Brad Gerstner (19), Thomas Laffont (15), Balaji Srinivasan (8), Gavin Baker (7)

tap a year for its mentions
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030602020202120222023202420252026episodes it came up in
004308602020202120222023202420252026episodesmentions per episode
2026 85 mentions in 34 episodes 3 per episode
2025 165 mentions in 54 episodes 3 per episode
2024 204 mentions in 47 episodes 4 per episode
2023 175 mentions in 43 episodes 4 per episode
2022 235 mentions in 41 episodes 6 per episode
2021 249 mentions in 35 episodes 7 per episode
2020 108 mentions in 14 episodes 8 per episode

every mention, scene by scene, with the transcript →

Everything said about Facebook, oldest first

Mar 15, 2020 negative
Opinion
Chamath: Facebook and Google destroyed traditional journalism
“We're in the business of editorializing, and we've been in that business since basically Facebook and Google, you know, Kind of destroyed the ability for journalism as it stands to remain intact.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Mar 15, 2020 ▶ 20:56 E0: COVID-19 Political, Economic & Social Ramifications featuring David Friedberg
Mar 15, 2020 negative
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Calacanis: MySpace lacked Facebook's virality due to product friction
“MySpace didn't have that viral coefficient because the products were so they had so much friction.”
Jason Calacanis Mar 15, 2020 ▶ 38:25 E0: COVID-19 Political, Economic & Social Ramifications featuring David Friedberg
Jun 20, 2020 neutral
Opinion
Chamath: Facebook attracts middle America while Twitter serves rich coasts
“I think basically that Facebook is, is becoming middle America and Twitter is becoming sort of the coasts. And, you know, Facebook is basically a product of middle America plus kind of like countries outside the United States and, you know, Twitter's about, yo…”
Chamath Palihapitiya Jun 20, 2020 ▶ 45:57 E4: Politicizing the pandemic, Police reform, Twitter vs Facebook with David Sacks & David Friedberg
Jul 11, 2020 negative
Opinion
The New York Times adopted anti-Trump bias to drive digital subscriptions
“I just thought the New York Times was just way too biased, and that they picked a side in order for their business to survive. And I actually believe that. I believe they picked the side of Trump, I'm sorry, the side of anti-Trump in order to get subscriptions…”
Jason Calacanis Jul 11, 2020 ▶ 55:41 E5: WHO's incompetence, kicking off Cold War II, China's grand plan, 100X'ing American efficiency
Jul 11, 2020 positive
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Facebook banning political ads increases Joe Biden's likelihood of winning in 2020
“I think he's actually more likely to win based on news that just hit the wire, which we haven't talked about today, which is it looks like Facebook is going to ban all political ads this year.”
David Friedberg Jul 11, 2020 ▶ 1:30:22 E5: WHO's incompetence, kicking off Cold War II, China's grand plan, 100X'ing American efficiency
Jul 31, 2020 bearish
Prediction Held up
Chamath predicts Amazon will face Facebook-level antitrust scrutiny within 5-10 years
“Amazon today I don't think is at risk just because its end market is so big, but I think within five or 10 years it definitely will be looked at through the same lens as Facebook and Google and actually just those two.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Jul 31, 2020 ▶ 1:10:15 E6: Big Tech antitrust aftermath, potential effects of an M&A clampdown on Silicon Valley & more
Jul 31, 2020 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Sacks: Forced divestiture of Instagram would cripple Facebook
“And that, that's a tremendously threatening issue for Facebook, because if it is forced to divest Instagram, it would just be crippling for the company.”
David Sacks Jul 31, 2020 ▶ 9:30 E6: Big Tech antitrust aftermath, potential effects of an M&A clampdown on Silicon Valley & more
Jul 31, 2020 bearish
Opinion
Chamath ranks Facebook at highest regulatory risk and Amazon at lowest
“If you had to stack rank to risk, I think Facebook is number one at the top of the list. Then I think it's Google. Then I think it's Apple. And then I think far, far, far down is Amazon.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Jul 31, 2020 ▶ 10:50 E6: Big Tech antitrust aftermath, potential effects of an M&A clampdown on Silicon Valley & more
Jul 31, 2020 negative
Opinion
Chamath doubts anyone at social platforms fully understands their content algorithms
“And I would be very skeptical that anybody there really understands every single piece of content, how and why it gets weighted the way it does.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Jul 31, 2020 ▶ 1:04:04 E6: Big Tech antitrust aftermath, potential effects of an M&A clampdown on Silicon Valley & more
Jul 31, 2020 negative
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Chamath: Zuckerberg's neutral free speech stance is socially and technologically untenable
“I think Zuck's position is the most defensible, but it also is the most untenable because it's the most, it's the least technologically and socially palatable, but it is the most defensible and philosophically, in my opinion, the only position you can have, bu…”
Chamath Palihapitiya Jul 31, 2020 ▶ 42:40 E6: Big Tech antitrust aftermath, potential effects of an M&A clampdown on Silicon Valley & more
Jul 31, 2020 negative
Opinion
Sacks: Amazon is the scariest monopoly because it endlessly expands into adjacencies
“I think he's the scariest monopolist out of the whole bunch. You know, if you look at kind of Amazon versus say Google or Facebook or Apple, I mean, those other companies are sort of sticking to their original footprint. Whereas Amazon keeps expanding into new…”
David Sacks Jul 31, 2020 ▶ 1:13:30 E6: Big Tech antitrust aftermath, potential effects of an M&A clampdown on Silicon Valley & more
Jul 31, 2020 neutral
Assertion Supported
Chamath: Social platforms' system integrity tools have eliminated 6 billion fake accounts
“I mean, obviously they have system integrity tools to figure this out. That's, there's no way you could have eliminated six billion accounts if that wasn't true.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Jul 31, 2020 ▶ 1:04:20 E6: Big Tech antitrust aftermath, potential effects of an M&A clampdown on Silicon Valley & more
Jul 31, 2020 negative
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Chamath: Facebook's fake account problem is just as bad as Twitter's
“I think that there's a fake account issue on Facebook that's just as bad as Twitter.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Jul 31, 2020 ▶ 52:52 E6: Big Tech antitrust aftermath, potential effects of an M&A clampdown on Silicon Valley & more
Oct 3, 2020 negative
Opinion
Sacks: Facebook is like cigarettes, but Twitter is like fentanyl
“Twitter is a Sewer of political diatribe and polemical hate, you know, it's, I don't know anyone who feels better you know, after spending time on Twitter, you know, if Facebook is like cigarettes, you know, I don't know what Twitter is. I mean, it's like fent…”
David Sacks Oct 3, 2020 ▶ 51:51 E9: Trump has COVID, First debate reactions, Coinbase letter response & more
Oct 16, 2020
Opinion
Chamath: Section 230 claims are harder to bring against Reddit
“I think it's very hard to pin a section two 30 claim on Reddit as easy as it is YouTube, Facebook, and Twitter.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Oct 16, 2020 ▶ 24:26 E10: Twitter & Facebook botch censorship (again), the publisher vs. distributor debate & more
Oct 16, 2020 bearish
Prediction Open · timeframe Oct 2025
Chamath: Section 230 protections for major tech platforms are numbered
“But if I was a betting man, which I am, I think that section two 30 is, their days are numbered, and Facebook, Twitter, Google, all these companies are going to have to look more like newspapers and television stations.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Oct 16, 2020 ▶ 7:15 E10: Twitter & Facebook botch censorship (again), the publisher vs. distributor debate & more
Oct 16, 2020 negative
What-if
Sacks: Consistent moderation rules would have blocked Trump tax return coverage
“Because if they were to apply these standards evenly, they would have blocked the Trump tax returns for the exact same reason.”
David Sacks Oct 16, 2020 ▶ 30:32 E10: Twitter & Facebook botch censorship (again), the publisher vs. distributor debate & more
Oct 16, 2020 negative
Disclosure
Chamath: Social algorithms intentionally amplify or suppress content beyond raw clicks
“For example, I can tell you very clearly that we would choose a priori stuff that we knew you would click on. It wasn't necessarily the most heavily clicked. We could make things that were lightly clicked, more clicked. We could make things that were more clic…”
Chamath Palihapitiya Oct 16, 2020 ▶ 14:37 E10: Twitter & Facebook botch censorship (again), the publisher vs. distributor debate & more
Nov 4, 2020 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Sacks: Twitter and Jack Dorsey will be political scapegoats post-election
“I think this time around it's going to be Twitter because they have been so arrogant and their assertion of their right to censor viewpoints they don't lock. And if the Republicans hold on to the Senate and or the presidency, I think you're going to see Jack D…”
David Sacks Nov 4, 2020 ▶ 1:28:12 E11: Election Night Special featuring Phil Hellmuth, Bill Gurley, Brad Gerstner & more!
Dec 4, 2020 positive
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Chamath: Slack's 10M users generate more daily engagement than Facebook's 2B
“These guys have more usage on a daily basis than Facebook, which is stunning because you know, these guys have ten million da use and Facebook has two billion.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Dec 4, 2020 ▶ 5:39 E14: Salesforce acquires Slack, DeepMind’s AlphaFold breakthrough, Trust Fund Socialists & more
Dec 4, 2020 neutral
Disclosure
Chamath: Sold Facebook position in 2014 to buy Amazon and Tesla
“I sold it on Facebook in 2014 and bought Amazon and Tesla.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Dec 4, 2020 ▶ 24:45 E14: Salesforce acquires Slack, DeepMind’s AlphaFold breakthrough, Trust Fund Socialists & more
Dec 18, 2020 negative
Opinion
Chamath: Facebook, Twitter, and Medium suppressed facts and science in 2020
“The amount of people that have been muzzled, stifled, the amount of fact and science that literally just gets judged willy-nilly by our distribution points like Facebook and Twitter and Medium. It's really scary. So censorship made a roaring comeback in 2020.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Dec 18, 2020 ▶ 34:30 E15: “The Besties” All-In’s inaugural award show covering the best, worst & most memorable of 2020
Jan 8, 2021 negative
Assertion Contradicted
Chamath says a large Facebook group coordinated the Capitol siege
“You couldn't have seen this Facebook group called, you know, hashtag storm the capital, which had tens of thousands, maybe hundreds of thousands of members in there plotting and scheming, selling merchandise called storm the capital. You know, these guys were …”
Chamath Palihapitiya Jan 8, 2021 ▶ 8:45 E16: Reflecting on the riots at the US Capitol, plus: Georgia runoffs, vaccine distribution & more
Jan 11, 2021 bearish
Prediction Open · timeframe Jan 2026
Sacks predicts Facebook and major tech platforms will be broken up
“You're going to get broken up anyway.”
David Sacks Jan 11, 2021 ▶ 1:20:08 E17: Big Tech bans Trump, ramifications for the First Amendment & the open Internet
Jan 11, 2021 positive
Opinion
Friedberg: Big Tech scale benefits consumers and shouldn't be broken up
“I also think consumers benefit from the scale that they operate at. And I don't think that they should be broken up. And I think that there's economic value to having Google be at the scale it's at and Amazon being at the scale it's at and Facebook being a sca…”
David Friedberg Jan 11, 2021 ▶ 1:27:19 E17: Big Tech bans Trump, ramifications for the First Amendment & the open Internet
Jan 23, 2021 neutral
Assertion Supported
Jason: Facebook funds its Oversight Board with $120M–$130M over six years
“They are funded by Facebook with 120 or one hundred thirty million dollars over the next six years. So they're getting like twenty million dollars a year to run this.”
Jason Calacanis Jan 23, 2021 ▶ 24:07 E18: Inauguration talk, breaking down the $1.9T stimulus, the case for recalling Gavin Newsom & more
Jan 23, 2021 bearish
Opinion
Sacks: Deplatforming by Facebook and Twitter strips citizens of speech rights
“The town square is now owned by Facebook and Twitter. The town square got privatized and our speech rights are now in the hands of Mark Zuckerberg and Jack Dorsey as a practical matter. I mean, you do not have speech rights in the modern world if you get depla…”
David Sacks Jan 23, 2021 ▶ 29:25 E18: Inauguration talk, breaking down the $1.9T stimulus, the case for recalling Gavin Newsom & more
Jan 23, 2021 negative
Opinion
Chamath: Facebook's Oversight Board is a fig leaf for Big Tech
“I don't think it should be people like this making any decision like this. And in many ways, it's a fig leaf for these companies to pretend they're doing the right thing while they're really shirking the real responsibility.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Jan 23, 2021 ▶ 25:36 E18: Inauguration talk, breaking down the $1.9T stimulus, the case for recalling Gavin Newsom & more
Mar 27, 2021 negative
Opinion
David Sacks: Zuckerberg's Section 230 proposal is regulatory capture protecting Facebook
“Small startups can't hire 30,000 people to do content moderation. So this is like classic regulatory capture, but done brazenly in the open at a congressional hearing.”
David Sacks Mar 27, 2021 ▶ 43:01 E27: The Great Inflation Debate, Amazon gets spicy on Twitter, rethinking supply chains & more
May 22, 2021 neutral
Disclosure
Palihapitiya: Facebook force stack-ranked to fire bottom 5-10% of employees
“When I was at Facebook, we used to convene the senior team. And, you know, I was like, I want, I really want to fire the bottom five or 10% of the company. And we would force stack rank and we did it for about three or four years.”
Chamath Palihapitiya May 22, 2021 ▶ 20:25 E33: Apple’s hypocrisy, America fails math, crypto’s regulatory correction, Clubhouse, UFOs & more
Jun 13, 2021 negative
Opinion
Sacks: Tech giants fear remote work hides thousands of unproductive employees
“And I think what this really comes down to is a fear on the part of Apple and Google and Facebook. They've got thousands of employees who aren't really working and are going to be able to completely hide.”
David Sacks Jun 13, 2021 ▶ 46:12 E35: Biogen's controversial Alzheimer's drug approval, the billionaire space race, Bitcoin & more
Jun 18, 2021
Assertion Partly supported
Chamath: Google and Facebook CPMs rose 28% to 30% in Q1 2021
“For the first time in the last quarter, both of these two companies, and they were the only two of big tech that announced an increase in pricing, right? They saw a diminishing of CPM inventory. And so they had to figure out ways to grow inventory as users sta…”
Chamath Palihapitiya Jun 18, 2021 ▶ 14:00 E36: New FTC Chair, breaking up big tech, government silent spying, Jon Stewart, wildfires & more
Jul 3, 2021 bullish
Opinion
Sacks: Facebook has the weakest antitrust breakup case among Big Tech
“I do think that of all the big tech companies, the argument for breaking up Facebook is the weakest”
David Sacks Jul 3, 2021 ▶ 1:15:23 E38: Bestie brawl, Robinhood's $70M fine & S-1, Delta variant, next gen candidates & more
Jul 23, 2021 negative
Opinion
Chamath: Google, Facebook, and Amazon hinder constructive capitalism
“I generally think that companies like Google and Facebook and Amazon unfortunately do not allow The constructive form of capitalism that people want in today's society.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Jul 23, 2021 ▶ 57:14 E41: Vaccine policy, Big Tech, DeepMind's latest breakthrough, wealth creation, opportunity & more
Jul 23, 2021
Disclosure
Chamath left $2B to $3B in stock when quitting Facebook
“The minute I realized that I was basically going to become, you know, a billionaire because of my Facebook stock, I fucking quit. And the craziest thing about it is I left so much stock on the table. It's like two, three billion dollars of fucking stock.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Jul 23, 2021 ▶ 1:24:28 E41: Vaccine policy, Big Tech, DeepMind's latest breakthrough, wealth creation, opportunity & more
Jul 23, 2021
What-if
Sacks: Retained Facebook investment stock would be worth $1B today
“I was an investor in Facebook. If I had just kept all of that stock, that'd be worth a billion dollars today.”
David Sacks Jul 23, 2021 ▶ 1:32:55 E41: Vaccine policy, Big Tech, DeepMind's latest breakthrough, wealth creation, opportunity & more
Jul 23, 2021
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Chamath: Facebook attempted to hire David Sacks as VP of Product
“We, you know, we tried to hire Sachs as VP of product at Facebook.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Jul 23, 2021 ▶ 1:32:15 E41: Vaccine policy, Big Tech, DeepMind's latest breakthrough, wealth creation, opportunity & more
Sep 14, 2021 positive
Assertion Contradicted
Chamath: UnitedHealth stock outperformed Facebook and Google over the past decade
“If you look at the stock prices of these companies, you would have made more money being long United Healthcare than you would have been owning Facebook, Google, any of these other tech companies in the last decade.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Sep 14, 2021 ▶ 26:49 E46: False Ivermectin narratives, regulatory grift, wartime mentality in solving issues & more
Sep 14, 2021 negative
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Sacks: Twitter and Facebook do not punish left-wing misinformation
“Twitter and Facebook do not punish people on the left for misinformation. That is a penalty. They only meter out for people who disagree with their cultural and political biases.”
David Sacks Sep 14, 2021 ▶ 6:32 E46: False Ivermectin narratives, regulatory grift, wartime mentality in solving issues & more
Sep 18, 2021 bearish
Opinion
Palihapitiya: Facebook faces probable civil and potential criminal liability
“There could be criminal liability. There's probably civil liability.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Sep 18, 2021 ▶ 37:36 E47: Facebook's week from hell, Ellen Pao on sexism in Elizabeth Holmes coverage, Newsom wins & more
Sep 18, 2021 negative
Opinion
Sacks: Legacy media exaggerates social media risks due to financial disruption
“There's a lot of people who hate social networking in the traditional legacy media because they've been disrupted Buy Facebook, buy these social media companies, and so they're looking. They took their money, and they're looking to publicize any article about …”
David Sacks Sep 18, 2021 ▶ 56:34 E47: Facebook's week from hell, Ellen Pao on sexism in Elizabeth Holmes coverage, Newsom wins & more
Sep 18, 2021 negative
Disclosure
Chamath: I ban my children from using major social media platforms
“My blunt force instruments are you're not allowed to have well, the ones that we've, we, they're not allowed to have TikTok, Snapchat, Facebook, Instagram, Twitter.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Sep 18, 2021 ▶ 1:04:22 E47: Facebook's week from hell, Ellen Pao on sexism in Elizabeth Holmes coverage, Newsom wins & more
Sep 18, 2021 neutral
Opinion
Sacks: Social media exacerbates body image issues but did not create them
“I mean, I just, you know, I, yes, I think there's like a kernel of truth here in terms of, yes, it does exacerbate body image issues, but I don't believe that Facebook Or social media created those issues.”
David Sacks Sep 18, 2021 ▶ 38:50 E47: Facebook's week from hell, Ellen Pao on sexism in Elizabeth Holmes coverage, Newsom wins & more
Sep 25, 2021 negative
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Balaji: US government control of Facebook will lead to backdoor surveillance
“But the US government gaining more control over Facebook is not a solution to Facebook's real problems. It's just going to mean backdoor surveillance of everything.”
Balaji Srinivasan Sep 25, 2021 ▶ 1:04:08 Balaji Srinivasan: role of decentralization, China/US breakdown & more
Sep 25, 2021 neutral
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Chamath: Facebook SEC whistleblower may make billions of dollars
“I actually think this whistleblower may make billions of dollars.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Sep 25, 2021 ▶ 1:02:03 Balaji Srinivasan: role of decentralization, China/US breakdown & more
Sep 25, 2021 positive
Opinion
Balaji: Facebook is probably more beneficial overall than critics acknowledge
“I actually think on net, it's probably being more beneficial than many people say, but I don't believe that the federal government is a solution to those problems.”
Balaji Srinivasan Sep 25, 2021 ▶ 1:04:38 Balaji Srinivasan: role of decentralization, China/US breakdown & more
Sep 25, 2021 neutral
Assertion Supported
Sacks: Russian 2016 Facebook ad impressions were an infinitesimal fraction of total
“When you actually look at the number of impressions that were created by the sum total of all of the so, the so-called disinformation of all these ads, It is a fractionally small, infinitesimal drop in the ocean compared to the total number impressions on Face…”
David Sacks Sep 25, 2021 ▶ 1:15:48 Balaji Srinivasan: role of decentralization, China/US breakdown & more
Oct 9, 2021 neutral
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Friedberg: Heavy platform regulation will drive users to unregulated decentralized alternatives
“If they start putting the regulatory hammer down on these quote unquote, platforms telling them what they can and cannot make available to their users, there will be another platform that will emerge. And that platform may end up being in this kind of decentra…”
David Friedberg Oct 9, 2021 ▶ 1:03:02 E50: Crypto investing deep dive, Facebook's whistleblower fallout, Chappelle's new special & more
Oct 9, 2021 negative
What-if
Chamath: Fulfilling government moderation demands would collapse Facebook's valuation to $250B
“Here's what I can tell you conclusively. If Facebook wanted to solve these issues in the ways that the government expects in their head for these problems to be solved, Facebook market cap would be two hundred and fifty billion dollars, and they'd have a milli…”
Chamath Palihapitiya Oct 9, 2021 ▶ 1:14:58 E50: Crypto investing deep dive, Facebook's whistleblower fallout, Chappelle's new special & more
Oct 9, 2021 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Chamath: Facebook will have to navigate Microsoft-style regulatory oversight
“And so this is the point, which is, I think, practically speaking, the beginning of what Microsoft went through, Facebook is going to have to navigate.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Oct 9, 2021 ▶ 1:01:35 E50: Crypto investing deep dive, Facebook's whistleblower fallout, Chappelle's new special & more
Oct 9, 2021 negative
Opinion
Chamath: Haugen's regulatory proposals were worse than breaking up Facebook
“Her suggestions were worse than breaking up Facebook.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Oct 9, 2021 ▶ 41:41 E50: Crypto investing deep dive, Facebook's whistleblower fallout, Chappelle's new special & more
Oct 9, 2021 neutral
Opinion
Chamath: Getting laws passed with regulators is Facebook's path to salvation
“So they need to get this pin down quickly, get in front of regulators, get some laws passed, whether it's section two 30 or whatever. That's the path to salvation for Facebook.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Oct 9, 2021 ▶ 44:27 E50: Crypto investing deep dive, Facebook's whistleblower fallout, Chappelle's new special & more
Oct 30, 2021 bearish
Assertion Supported
Calacanis: Leaked memo shows Facebook projected 45% US teen drop
“Well, they're losing young people at an extraordinary rate on Facebook. US teenagers were projected to decrease by 45% over the next two years.”
Jason Calacanis Oct 30, 2021 ▶ 1:08:29 E53: Wealth tax, inflation as a capital allocator, big tech earnings, paternity leave & more
Oct 30, 2021
Assertion Supported
Friedberg: Apple ad revenue is surging while iOS privacy hobbles Facebook
“For example, this Apple, you know, ad revenue business, I think is climbing by billions of dollars while Facebook's core business is being affected by the cookie tracking policy change on Apple iOS.”
David Friedberg Oct 30, 2021 ▶ 1:12:28 E53: Wealth tax, inflation as a capital allocator, big tech earnings, paternity leave & more
Oct 30, 2021 positive
Opinion
Sacks: Facebook whistleblower leaks were an orchestrated political hit
“Because I think like all this, these leaks from the so-called whistleblower, I think this is a completely orchestrated political hit, and they should just fight back and push back on it.”
David Sacks Oct 30, 2021 ▶ 1:08:02 E53: Wealth tax, inflation as a capital allocator, big tech earnings, paternity leave & more
Oct 30, 2021 negative
Opinion
Calacanis: Developers are crazy to build on Meta's metaverse over decentralized platforms
“I think any developer who puts any amount of their effort into supporting in any way, Zuckerberg's view of the metaverse is crazy when they could do it on a distributed decentralized crypto based open source platform.”
Jason Calacanis Oct 30, 2021 ▶ 1:05:46 E53: Wealth tax, inflation as a capital allocator, big tech earnings, paternity leave & more
Oct 30, 2021
Opinion
Friedberg: Zuckerberg is much more product-driven than Larry Page was
“No, I think he's way more active and driven in terms of product direction than Larry ever was. So I don't think they're the same person and I wouldn't like in these two.”
David Friedberg Oct 30, 2021 ▶ 1:10:34 E53: Wealth tax, inflation as a capital allocator, big tech earnings, paternity leave & more
Oct 30, 2021
Disclosure
Chamath created Facebook's 4-month parental leave but took three weeks
“I came up with four months for either the father or the mother, irrespective of the context. And that's how we started the original policy. Four years later, though, when I had my first kid, I took like three weeks and I came back because the grind was too har…”
Chamath Palihapitiya Oct 30, 2021 ▶ 20:32 E53: Wealth tax, inflation as a capital allocator, big tech earnings, paternity leave & more
Dec 23, 2021 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Calacanis: Apple and open-source platforms will handily beat Meta in VR
“I think that their VR efforts, AR efforts will be beaten handily by Apple and by the metaverse and You know, open source slash decentralized solutions.”
Jason Calacanis Dec 23, 2021 ▶ 30:06 E60: The 2021 Bestie Awards PLUS Jack Dorsey starts the Web3 Wars
Jan 8, 2022
Disclosure
Chamath: Facebook kept financials on an air-gapped offline computer
“We actually kept The financials on a physical computer that was not connected to the internet so the people that wanted it would actually have to come to our office and then we would put them in like a windowless room without their phone or something.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Jan 8, 2022 ▶ 23:37 E62: Elizabeth Holmes verdict, fraud origins & takeaways, navigating "The Great Markdown" & more
Jan 8, 2022 positive
Assertion Contradicted
Chamath: Facebook, Google, Apple, Microsoft, Amazon raised under $250M combined
“Facebook, Google, Apple, Microsoft and Amazon raised collectively less than two hundred and fifty million dollars.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Jan 8, 2022 ▶ 54:02 E62: Elizabeth Holmes verdict, fraud origins & takeaways, navigating "The Great Markdown" & more
Jan 22, 2022
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Sachs: Facebook and Google do not hold a dominant position in tech labor
“Facebook and Google, no matter how powerful monopolies they may be, they don't have a dominant position in the labor market. This is not true. They're competing for the same engineers that every tech company is competing for.”
David Sacks Jan 22, 2022 ▶ 30:53 E64: Antitrust standards & enforcement, tech repricing, lab leak obfuscation, E63 reactions & more
Jan 22, 2022 negative
Opinion
Sachs: Facebook's Instagram acquisition extended its monopoly into mobile
“When Facebook bought Instagram at that time, it didn't seem to be a problem, but it definitely allowed them to extend their monopoly from the desktop into mobile, and it probably should be scrutinized harder.”
David Sacks Jan 22, 2022 ▶ 29:56 E64: Antitrust standards & enforcement, tech repricing, lab leak obfuscation, E63 reactions & more
Feb 5, 2022 negative
Opinion
Chamath: Facebook does not have a monopoly in digital advertising
“There is a vibrant and growing advertising ecosystem, by no means could you claim that Facebook has any real monopoly on that, number one.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Feb 5, 2022 ▶ 1:06:40 E66: $FB's big drop, Rogan/Spotify mess, Xi/Putin meetup & supply chain issues with Ryan Petersen
Feb 5, 2022 negative
Opinion
Sacks: Facebook's Meta rebrand could only happen in a bubble market
“That kind of decision could only be made in a bubbly frothy market. You would never make that decision in the kind of down market you have today”
David Sacks Feb 5, 2022 ▶ 54:03 E66: $FB's big drop, Rogan/Spotify mess, Xi/Putin meetup & supply chain issues with Ryan Petersen
Apr 1, 2022 negative
Opinion
Sacks: Concerns over Facebook should be ten times greater for TikTok
“Whatever problems people have with Facebook, they should have them like, 10 x with TikTok.”
David Sacks Apr 1, 2022 ▶ 1:12:32 E74: Market update, inverted yield curve, immigration, new SPAC rules, $FB smears TikTok and more
May 13, 2022 neutral
Assertion Partly supported
Chamath: Facebook took a 40% valuation haircut during the 2008 crisis
“I remember we raised money from Microsoft at a 15.3 billion dollar valuation. The great financial crisis took hold and Mark to his credit reset the valuation. We were already profitable, so we didn't necessarily need to raise that money, but we, I think we rai…”
Chamath Palihapitiya May 13, 2022 ▶ 1:23:28 E80: Recession deep dive: VC psychology, macro risks, Tiger Global, predictions and more
May 30, 2022 positive
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Chamath: Facebook Growth Circle ran thousands of failed experiments weekly
“At Facebook we created, I created this thing called Growth Circle. We used to run thousands of experiments a week, and we used to have folks present every week, and it was just three hours of monotonous failure, right?”
Chamath Palihapitiya May 30, 2022 ▶ 29:38 #AIS: Pear VC’s Mar Hershenson on making successful founders
Jun 23, 2022
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Luckey confirms a direct causal line from 2016 donation to Facebook ouster
“As you know, these things are very complex, but more or less, yes. I mean, there's a direct causal line from that to me being put on leave to me not being allowed to come back and then pushed out.”
Palmer Luckey Jun 23, 2022 ▶ 32:49 #AIS: Palmer Luckey on Anduril
Aug 20, 2022 positive
Assertion Supported
Friedberg: Saudi Aramco made $48B net profit in a single quarter
“Saudi Aramco reported their earnings. The largest earnings ever for a company Forty-eight billion dollars of net profit in a quarter. That is more profit than Microsoft, Apple, Facebook, and Tesla combined in a single quarter.”
David Friedberg Aug 20, 2022 ▶ 47:23 E92: Adam Neumann's second act, a16z's $350M bet, housing policy, Inflation Reduction Act & more
Sep 1, 2022 negative
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Sacks: FBI urged Facebook to censor laptop story despite possessing authentic device
“The real point here is that the FBI went to Facebook to censor a story that they must have known was true because they had the laptop in their possession.”
David Sacks Sep 1, 2022 ▶ 46:37 E94: NFT volume plummets, California's overreach, FBI meddling, climate change & national security
Sep 10, 2022 negative
Assertion Contradicted
Friedberg: DTC marketing costs on Facebook and Google have doubled or tripled
“Cause in the last year, the cost of DTC direct to consumer marketing on Facebook and Google. Double, tripled. And a lot of the unit economics are falling apart on D to C businesses because of it you know, costs a lot more to acquire the customer than you make …”
David Friedberg Sep 10, 2022 ▶ 1:11:23 E95: Winter is Coming, Europe's energy crisis, Kim Kardashian's new PE firm & more
Oct 1, 2022 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Calacanis: Big tech non-core project cuts will heavily benefit startups
“No, but to the point of competition, you you're seeing cuts to, you know, all the non core projects at these big companies. This is going to be great for startups, right? Like the idea that Facebook could focus on, you know, a fourth, fifth, sixth thing is goi…”
Jason Calacanis Oct 1, 2022 ▶ 21:22 E98: Big tech starts making cuts, Fed incompetency, global debt, Russia/Ukraine & more
Oct 7, 2022 neutral
Assertion Contradicted
Chamath: The title 'data scientist' originated from his team at Facebook
“As classically used in Silicon Valley, it came from Facebook and it came from my team in a critical moment.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Oct 7, 2022 ▶ 37:00 E99: Cheating scandals, Twitter updates, rapid AI advancements, Biden's pardon, Section 230 & more
Oct 22, 2022 neutral
Assertion Supported
Gerstner: A 20% Meta layoff merely resets headcount expenses to 2021 levels
“A 20% RIF At Meta would literally only take them back to where their personnel expense was in 2021.”
Brad Gerstner Oct 22, 2022 ▶ 27:33 E101: Ye acquires Parler, Snap drops 30%, macro outlook, VC metrics, valuing stocks & more
Oct 22, 2022 bullish
Prediction Held up
Palihapitiya: Meta will inevitably adopt the operational cost discipline of its peers
“The only big four horsemen that hasn't really gotten the script yet is meta, but they will, it's just, we're just debating when.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Oct 22, 2022 ▶ 23:17 E101: Ye acquires Parler, Snap drops 30%, macro outlook, VC metrics, valuing stocks & more
Oct 29, 2022 negative
Opinion
Friedberg: Zuckerberg should buy Epic Games for $50B instead of building metaverse
“If Zuck was a smart guy, he would go to Tencent and cut him a check and buy the whole thing for fifty billion and, you know, buy those guys.”
David Friedberg Oct 29, 2022 ▶ 44:23 E102: Elon closes Twitter deal, $META uncertainty, Zuck's historic bet, big tech decline & more
Oct 29, 2022 neutral
Assertion Supported
Friedberg: Twitter was acquired at $172 per MAU versus Meta's $81
“I just sent you guys this link from this analyst and he said that Twitter was bought at 172 dollars per monthly active user compared to 81 dollars per monthly active user at Meta where they sit today.”
David Friedberg Oct 29, 2022 ▶ 7:23 E102: Elon closes Twitter deal, $META uncertainty, Zuck's historic bet, big tech decline & more
Oct 29, 2022 bullish
Opinion
Chamath: Meta is a value play with substantial stock upside
“There's a value play here and there's a lot of upside, which I think there is actually, you know, this company can throw off an enormous amount of cash.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Oct 29, 2022 ▶ 1:00:01 E102: Elon closes Twitter deal, $META uncertainty, Zuck's historic bet, big tech decline & more
Oct 29, 2022 neutral
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Sacks: Meta's collapse will probably not change Silicon Valley governance
“Probably nothing. It's not going to change anything.”
David Sacks Oct 29, 2022 ▶ 46:48 E102: Elon closes Twitter deal, $META uncertainty, Zuck's historic bet, big tech decline & more
Oct 29, 2022 bearish
Opinion
Chamath: Meta is a dumpster fire in a deep, dangerous situation
“Meta is its own bag of, you know, it's a little bit of an unfortunately. You know, a bit of a dumpster fire. It's got a liability attached to it. Well, and I'll explain why, because the meta problem is, it's a deep and a very dangerous situation that they've p…”
Chamath Palihapitiya Oct 29, 2022 ▶ 7:40 E102: Elon closes Twitter deal, $META uncertainty, Zuck's historic bet, big tech decline & more
Oct 29, 2022 neutral
Assertion Partly supported
Friedberg: Alphabet spends one-tenth of Meta's revenue proportion on side bets
“So on a relative basis, Alphabet is spending One 10th of what Meta is per dollar earned or top line revenue earned on their other bets category.”
David Friedberg Oct 29, 2022 ▶ 58:42 E102: Elon closes Twitter deal, $META uncertainty, Zuck's historic bet, big tech decline & more
Oct 29, 2022 negative
What-if
Calacanis: Zuckerberg should have made Sandberg CEO of Facebook
“He should have put Sheryl Sandberg, a CEO of the Facebook corporation. He should have became CEO of Meta, and then he should have ran that other business to print even more profits.”
Jason Calacanis Oct 29, 2022 ▶ 56:52 E102: Elon closes Twitter deal, $META uncertainty, Zuck's historic bet, big tech decline & more
Oct 29, 2022 negative
Assertion Supported
Chamath: Meta spent more on Reality Labs than Apple spent building iPhone
“Look, Tesla's reinventing an entire category, trillions of dollars of energy generation and transportation, but they did it on in one year of meta reality lab spend. Apple reinvented an entire compute platform on one quarter of Meta's Reality Lab spend.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Oct 29, 2022 ▶ 54:38 E102: Elon closes Twitter deal, $META uncertainty, Zuck's historic bet, big tech decline & more
Oct 29, 2022
Assertion Supported
Chamath: Apple spent $396B on share buybacks while Meta spent $100B
“They've spent three hundred and ninety six billion dollars since 2016 to buy back stock. In the same time, Facebook has spent almost a hundred billion.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Oct 29, 2022 ▶ 34:04 E102: Elon closes Twitter deal, $META uncertainty, Zuck's historic bet, big tech decline & more
Oct 29, 2022 bearish
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Chamath: Meta's Reality Labs spend is largest capital allocation program in history
“It now is becoming the single largest capital allocation program in capitalism history. Nothing comes close.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Oct 29, 2022 ▶ 37:52 E102: Elon closes Twitter deal, $META uncertainty, Zuck's historic bet, big tech decline & more
Nov 12, 2022 neutral
Opinion
Chamath: Meta's 11,000 job cuts do not matter to the broader economy
“I don't I don't think Facebook matters that much to be honest. Well, but it matters that big tech is and they're taking matters to us, but it doesn't matter to the economy to be completely honest.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Nov 12, 2022 ▶ 1:08:17 E104: FTX collapse with Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong + election results, macro update & more
Dec 10, 2022 negative
Assertion Partly supported
Sacks: FBI warned social networks to suppress authentic Hunter Biden laptop story
“A very important piece of this was the pre-bunking that the FBI went to Facebook and Twitter and social networks and said, be on the lookout for a story about Hunter Biden. It is Russian disinformation. And they primed these social networks to suppress that st…”
David Sacks Dec 10, 2022 ▶ 39:30 E107: The Twitter Files Parts 1-2: shadow banning, story suppression, interference & more
Dec 10, 2022 neutral
Assertion Supported
Calacanis: Twitter and Facebook did not know if laptop story was hacked
“Twitter and Facebook did not know.”
Jason Calacanis Dec 10, 2022 ▶ 46:39 E107: The Twitter Files Parts 1-2: shadow banning, story suppression, interference & more
Dec 16, 2022 neutral
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Calacanis: Coordinated tech bans dramatically reduce individual reach
“When they got banned across all systems, it was dramatic in terms of the reach of the that information. So because of the size and scale of YouTube, Facebook, Twitter, etc, when they act in coordination, They can, ah, have a dramatic impact.”
Jason Calacanis Dec 16, 2022 ▶ 17:12 E108: Doxing debate, Nuclear fusion breakthrough, state of the markets & more
Dec 16, 2022 negative
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Sacks: Twitter's plane-tracking ban will prove futile
“I think this policy with regard to planes specifically is going to be futile. It's going to be at best harm reduction because as long as there's many ways to publish this information on Reddit, it's on Facebook.”
David Sacks Dec 16, 2022 ▶ 16:26 E108: Doxing debate, Nuclear fusion breakthrough, state of the markets & more
Dec 24, 2022 bullish
Disclosure
Calacanis bought Meta stock at $94 per share
“I bought the stock at 94.”
Jason Calacanis Dec 24, 2022 ▶ 1:53:24 E109: 2022 Bestie Awards Live from Twitter HQ
Jan 13, 2023 negative
Opinion
Chamath: Meta's recent protein-folding AI model is not that good
“I mean, Facebook released this kind of like rando version of alpha fold recently. It's not that good.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Jan 13, 2023 ▶ 43:51 E111: Microsoft to invest $10B in OpenAI, generative AI hype, America's over-classification problem
Jan 27, 2023 bullish
Disclosure
Friedberg: Portfolio companies moved ad spend from Google and Meta to Amazon
“I know this from experience on a couple boards. I'm at where companies stopped spending on Facebook and Google and just started spending exclusively on Amazon.”
David Friedberg Jan 27, 2023 ▶ 16:19 E113: DOJ tries to break up Google, vaccine questions, Ukraine escalation & more
Jan 27, 2023 neutral
Assertion Partly supported
Chamath Palihapitiya cites market data showing Google holds 26.5% of digital ads
“Google controls 26.5% of a market. 43.4% of that market is with a diverse group of others. Meta has 18.4%, and Amazon has 11.7.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Jan 27, 2023 ▶ 4:47 E113: DOJ tries to break up Google, vaccine questions, Ukraine escalation & more
Feb 4, 2023 bullish
Disclosure
Calacanis: Bought Meta stock at $94 per share during layoffs
“I actually bought it based the day they had the layoffs, I put in a buy order and it was closed at 94 dollars and now it's at a 193.”
Jason Calacanis Feb 4, 2023 ▶ 27:11 E114: Markets update: whipsaw macro picture, big tech, startup mass extinction event, VC reckoning
Feb 4, 2023
Assertion Contradicted
Chamath: Big tech giants raised under $250M total before IPOs
“Less than a quarter billion dollars.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Feb 4, 2023 ▶ 51:49 E114: Markets update: whipsaw macro picture, big tech, startup mass extinction event, VC reckoning
Feb 24, 2023 positive
Opinion
Chamath: Quora CEO Adam D'Angelo is the smartest person he worked with
“I've worked with, I've known D'Angelo for 17 years now. He was the CTO of Facebook when I worked there. The single smartest and best, single smartest person I worked with. And then separately, one of the most absolute genuinely best human beings in the world.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Feb 24, 2023 ▶ 1:29:11 E117: Did Stripe miss its window? Plus: VC market update, AI comes for SaaS, Trump's savvy move
Feb 24, 2023
What-if
Palihapitiya: Facebook could have disrupted iOS and Android by IPOing earlier
“When you look subsequently at how much money they've spent in AR and VR, spending half a quarters of that cash could have given them the chance to disrupt Android and iOS in 2010 and 11, which in hindsight is obviously a no brainer bet, right?”
Chamath Palihapitiya Feb 24, 2023 ▶ 4:52 E117: Did Stripe miss its window? Plus: VC market update, AI comes for SaaS, Trump's savvy move
Feb 24, 2023
Insight
Palihapitiya: Startups should question the trend of delaying IPOs as long as possible
“So even though I think we at Facebook were the ones to really put this in the water table about not going public, I think a lot of startups should have gone back to first principles to really question whether waiting as long as possible actually makes sense.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Feb 24, 2023 ▶ 5:08 E117: Did Stripe miss its window? Plus: VC market update, AI comes for SaaS, Trump's savvy move
Mar 3, 2023 neutral
Assertion Partly supported
Gerstner: Meta will spend $20B in a single year on AR/VR
“Meta's gonna spend twenty billion in one year alone on AR VR.”
Brad Gerstner Mar 3, 2023 ▶ 12:02 E118: AI FOMO frenzy, macro update, Fox vs Dominion, US vs China & more with Brad Gerstner
Mar 31, 2023 bearish
Prediction Held up
Calacanis: Facebook and LinkedIn will block ChatGPT from accessing their data
“Somebody like Facebook, when they release their language model, which they're about to, is not going to allow ChatGPT to have any access to the Facebook corpus of data. And then LinkedIn will do the same. They'll block any access to ChatGPT to their data.”
Jason Calacanis Mar 31, 2023 ▶ 29:42 E122: Is AI the next great computing platform? ChatGPT vs. Google, containing AGI & RESTRICT Act
Apr 28, 2023 bearish
Opinion
Chamath: Big Tech companies have passed peak growth and become cash cows
“I think we're now well past peak big tech. Their valuations may still go up because they generate such an enormous amount of cash flow. But these are exactly those kinds of businesses now. They are X growth, large cash flow businesses.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Apr 28, 2023 ▶ 8:00 E126: Big Tech blow-out, Powell’s recession warning, lab-grown meat, RFK Jr shakes up race & more
May 26, 2023 bearish
Prediction Partly held up
Palihapitiya: Nvidia's margins will compress as major tech companies build custom chips
“In the end, Nvidia's gains today will be then spread across Nvidia. Facebook will have their own chip. Amazon will have their own chip. Google already does. Apple will have their own chip. All the memory companies will be in this space, right? So then the prof…”
Chamath Palihapitiya May 26, 2023 ▶ 1:04:45 E130: DeSantis's Twitter Spaces, debt ceiling, Nvidia rips, state of VC, startup failure & more
Jun 16, 2023 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Chamath Palihapitiya predicts internet value will shift to creators and moderators
“I think in this current version of the internet, The value is going to go and again, further, further, further erode away from the centralized apps and more towards the individual people, or in this case, these hubbid spokes, these mods, and not to the central…”
Chamath Palihapitiya Jun 16, 2023 ▶ 1:14:37 E133: Market melt-up, IPO update, AI startups overheat, Reddit revolts & more with Brad Gerstner
Jun 16, 2023 neutral
Insight
David Friedberg says user-generated networks gain no structural value from third-party apps
“That works well in some contexts, like an Apple app store context, but in the context where there is a network unto itself, like Facebook, Twitter, and Reddit, meaning that there is already a user network that is generating value in the form of the content tha…”
David Friedberg Jun 16, 2023 ▶ 1:07:53 E133: Market melt-up, IPO update, AI startups overheat, Reddit revolts & more with Brad Gerstner
Jun 24, 2023 neutral
Assertion Supported
JCal: Seven tech stocks drive most of 2023 stock market gains
“Seven stocks make up the mo- most of the gains this year. Meta, Tesla, Nvidia, Amazon, Alphabet, Microsoft, and Apple.”
Jason Calacanis Jun 24, 2023 ▶ 8:33 E134: Ukraine counteroffensive, China tensions, COVID Patient Zero, RFK Jr reaction & more
Jun 24, 2023 negative
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Chamath says Mark Zuckerberg burned a quarter-trillion dollars at Meta
“The guy burned a quarter trillion dollars and then found a way to stop it.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Jun 24, 2023 ▶ 14:48 E134: Ukraine counteroffensive, China tensions, COVID Patient Zero, RFK Jr reaction & more
Jul 1, 2023
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Chamath predicts corporate DEI and ESG programs will be outlawed
“The second order derivative is now what lawsuits get launched and what are the implications for private companies, right? So right now this affects any institution that receives federal funding, and that includes all the universities. So there's no private or …”
Chamath Palihapitiya Jul 1, 2023 ▶ 29:26 E135: Wagner rebels, SCOTUS ends AA, AI M&A, startups gone bad, spacetime warps & more
Jul 9, 2023 bullish
Prediction Partly held up
Gerstner: Meta will launch major AI models and agents within six weeks
“Over the next four to six weeks. They're going to have massive launches out of the AI side of the business. I expect a lot more support for their open AI model or for their open LLM. I also think they're going to launch a bunch of agents on WhatsApp and Instag…”
Brad Gerstner Jul 9, 2023 ▶ 8:00 E136: Hacking the pod, Threads launches, Fed minutes, immigration, balloon farce, heart health
Jul 9, 2023 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Chamath: Threads will be dead on arrival as a standalone app
“As a standalone product, I tend to think it's DOA for the most part.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Jul 9, 2023 ▶ 13:05 E136: Hacking the pod, Threads launches, Fed minutes, immigration, balloon farce, heart health
Jul 14, 2023 bearish
Opinion
Chamath: FTC wastes taxpayer money funding frivolous lawsuits tech giants win
“And I think it just wastes taxpayer money by funding these frivolous lawsuits that then sophisticated organizations like Microsoft and meta just win.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Jul 14, 2023 ▶ 46:31 E137: Inflation cools, market rips, Ripple/MSFT beat regulators, NATO summit, cocktails of youth
Aug 11, 2023 bullish
Disclosure
Gerstner: Altimeter bought Meta during 2022 public market collapse
“In 2022, we had this massive correction in the public markets. We believed that they overshot. In part, we believed that because we didn't think we were going to have hyperinflation forever, et cetera. And so you and I invested in, you know, Meta and a lot of …”
Brad Gerstner Aug 11, 2023 ▶ 1:10:26 E141: State of Series A's, VC dry powder, IPO window opens + more with Bill Gurley & Brad Gerstner
Sep 1, 2023 positive
Disclosure
Chamath: Tiger Global's Chase Coleman seeded my first angel fund
“Chase is a incredible person. I've said this before. He helped me get into the business of investing. He seeded my first angel fund. I was pretty helpful, I think, in getting them on the cap table at Facebook.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Sep 1, 2023 ▶ 23:17 E144: Biden targets Elon, BRICS challenges the West, Tiger hit piece & more
Sep 16, 2023 negative
Insight
Gurley: AI incumbents attack open-source AI because it threatens their market power
“They're spreading a negative open source message, and I think it's precisely because they know it's their biggest threat, and I think what Meta's done with Llama II.”
Bill Gurley Sep 16, 2023 ▶ 21:26 All-In Summit: Bill Gurley presents 2,851 Miles
Nov 17, 2023
Disclosure
Zuckerberg told Phillips that verifying Facebook accounts is a competitive disadvantage
“I asked Mark Zuckerberg after a financial services hearing a couple years ago, you know, why, why doesn't Facebook just verify accounts, make this so much easier to hold people accountable and have higher standards of accountability? And he said it would be a …”
Dean Phillips Nov 17, 2023 ▶ 43:54 In conversation with Dean Phillips
Dec 1, 2023
Disclosure
Chamath: Zuckerberg and I exclusively signed Facebook's Irish IP transfer deal
“You know, at Facebook, there was a moment where we divested all of our IP to a subsidiary in Ireland. And for tax reasons, and there were two signatories to that deal. It was me and Zuck.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Dec 1, 2023 ▶ 1:45:37 Tucker Carlson: State of America, leaving Fox News, Media Control, Politics, and more
Dec 23, 2023 negative
What-if
Chamath: Meta acquiring WhatsApp for $17B could never happen today
“Today, that could never happen.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Dec 23, 2023 ▶ 45:09 E158: Global trade disrupted, Adobe/Figma canceled, realtors sued, Trump blocked
Jan 19, 2024 bullish
Opinion
Chamath: Facebook and Google are the only true winners of streaming churn
“So the only winner in all of this is Facebook and Google. The only winners are Facebook and Google, because that's where the ads will appear to try to reacquire these folks, right?”
Chamath Palihapitiya Jan 19, 2024 ▶ 1:04:15 E162: Live from Davos! Milei goes viral, Adam Neumann's headwinds, streaming's broken model & more
Jan 26, 2024 negative
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Calacanis: Digital ad gains shift to Google, Meta, TikTok, Amazon, and Uber
“All the gains in advertising have gone to those two firms and now TikTok obviously. And Amazon, Uber building respectable ad businesses as well. So all of that takes ads out of publications and puts it closer to the point of purchase, right?”
Jason Calacanis Jan 26, 2024 ▶ 18:44 E163: Market rips, Media RIFs, Texas defies Biden, Fintech reckoning, ARkStorm 2.0 & more
Feb 9, 2024 positive
Assertion Supported
Calacanis: Meta hit $14B Q4 profit after 22% headcount reduction
“Reduction in headcount, 22% year over year from 86,000 to 67,000 the last quarter for Meta. And their quarterly profits have increased to an all-time high of fourteen billion dollars. That's profits folks in Q four for Meta. All-time high for the stock price, …”
Jason Calacanis Feb 9, 2024 ▶ 21:18 E165: Vision Pro: use or lose? Meta vs Snap, SaaS recovery, AI investing, rolling real estate crisis
Mar 1, 2024 negative
Disclosure
Friedberg admits to selling his Meta stock during its late 2022 slump
“By the way, I was one of the stupid people to sell Meta around that time.”
David Friedberg Mar 1, 2024 ▶ 10:29 E168: Can Google save itself? Abolish HR, AI takes over Customer Support, Reddit IPO teardown
Mar 8, 2024 neutral
Assertion Supported
Calacanis: Facebook and Apple are actively open-sourcing AI models
“By the way, that's what Facebook and Apple are doing right now.”
Jason Calacanis Mar 8, 2024 ▶ 2:34 E169: Elon sues OpenAI, Apple's decline, TikTok ban, Bitcoin $100K?, Science corner: Microplastics
Mar 8, 2024 negative
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Chamath: Facebook, Google, Apple, and TikTok are all infiltrated by foreign intelligence
“Facebook is infiltrated. Google is infiltrated. Apple is infiltrated. TikTok is infiltrated. So on that dimension, I think that it should be considered a hundred percent certainty that this data is getting back to not just the Chinese, but multiple state spons…”
Chamath Palihapitiya Mar 8, 2024 ▶ 1:11:12 E169: Elon sues OpenAI, Apple's decline, TikTok ban, Bitcoin $100K?, Science corner: Microplastics
Mar 8, 2024 negative
Disclosure
Chamath: Facebook's Irish IP transfer triggered years of IRS litigation
“At Facebook, there was a period where, and this was public, so I can tell you, We transferred a lot of our IP to Ireland at one moment, and there was a transfer payment and whatnot. And then a few years afterwards, when everybody realized, including us, and we…”
Chamath Palihapitiya Mar 8, 2024 ▶ 7:44 E169: Elon sues OpenAI, Apple's decline, TikTok ban, Bitcoin $100K?, Science corner: Microplastics
Mar 16, 2024 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Friedberg: A US TikTok ban will significantly benefit Meta, Instagram, and X
“If TikTok gets banned in the US, it's going to benefit Meta. It's going to benefit Instagram. It's going to benefit a few other, you know, social networks. It's going to benefit Elon at Twitter. There's a few folks that are going to benefit pretty significantl…”
David Friedberg Mar 16, 2024 ▶ 56:30 E170: Tech's Vibe Shift, TikTok ban debate, Vertical AI boom, Florida bans lab-grown meat & more
Apr 12, 2024 negative
Assertion Supported
Chamath: Meta made explicit internal decisions to violate copyright for AI
“That article didn't just point the finger at Google. It pointed the finger at Meta where there were explicit decisions to say, yeah, no, let's just violate the copyright.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Apr 12, 2024 ▶ 59:48 E174: Inflation stays hot, AI disclosure bill, Drone warfare, defense startups & more
Apr 26, 2024 bullish
Opinion
Chamath: Meta and Google are no longer lagging behind OpenAI
“Because I think up until this point, you could have said that they and Google were sort of lagging behind OpenAI, but I don't think that's the case.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Apr 26, 2024 ▶ 7:59 Meta's scorched earth approach to AI, Tesla's future, TikTok bill, FTC bans noncompetes, wealth tax
Apr 26, 2024 positive
Assertion Partly supported
Calacanis: Llama 3 reached top two on Hugging Face leaderboard rapidly
“It just came out a few days ago and it's already in the top two models on Hugging Faces leaderboard.”
Jason Calacanis Apr 26, 2024 ▶ 6:01 Meta's scorched earth approach to AI, Tesla's future, TikTok bill, FTC bans noncompetes, wealth tax
Apr 26, 2024 bullish
Prediction Open · timeframe Apr 2027
Calacanis predicts Meta will capture 10% of search market via AI
“And so just like Apple and Firefox were able to intercept search traffic, I think, and let's make a prediction here, that Meta's gonna get 10 points of the search market.”
Jason Calacanis Apr 26, 2024 ▶ 18:00 Meta's scorched earth approach to AI, Tesla's future, TikTok bill, FTC bans noncompetes, wealth tax
Apr 26, 2024 neutral
Disclosure
Chamath: Early YouTube code was found on Steve Chen's Facebook laptop
“Like Steve Chen, before he started YouTube was an engineer at Facebook and There was like, at one point, I remember being in some meeting where I was like, oh, I think we found an early version of the YouTube code on an old laptop that was a Facebook laptop th…”
Chamath Palihapitiya Apr 26, 2024 ▶ 58:45 Meta's scorched earth approach to AI, Tesla's future, TikTok bill, FTC bans noncompetes, wealth tax
Apr 26, 2024 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Chamath: Meta's open-source AI strategy will destroy competitor economics
“They're scorching the earth for these new markets so that the economics are not viable, which will, I think, allow a more Robust ecosystem where they'll have more of a say.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Apr 26, 2024 ▶ 7:45 Meta's scorched earth approach to AI, Tesla's future, TikTok bill, FTC bans noncompetes, wealth tax
Apr 26, 2024 bearish
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Friedberg: Meta's open-source AI will kill $500M model startup funding
“By open sourcing these models, they limit competition because VCs are no longer going to plow half a billion dollars into a foundational model development company.”
David Friedberg Apr 26, 2024 ▶ 12:44 Meta's scorched earth approach to AI, Tesla's future, TikTok bill, FTC bans noncompetes, wealth tax
May 3, 2024 positive
Assertion Partly supported
Calacanis: Meta's revenue grew from $270M to $117B during Sandberg's tenure
“When she joined Facebook in 2008, it was at two hundred and seventy million dollars in revenue. When she left, it was at a hundred and seventeen billion.”
Jason Calacanis May 3, 2024 ▶ 1:57 Sheryl Sandberg, plus open-source AI gene editing explained
May 17, 2024 bullish
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Friedberg: Meta and Amazon lack high-value call options like Google's Waymo
“Meta and Amazon do not have an isomorphic lab and Waymo sitting inside their business that suddenly pops to a couple hundred billion of market cap. And Google does have a few of those.”
David Friedberg May 17, 2024 ▶ 1:29:36 GPT-4o launches, Glue demo, Ohalo breakthrough, Druck's Argentina bet, did Google kill Perplexity?
May 24, 2024 negative
Disclosure
Chamath reactivated dormant Meta accounts to fight AI impersonators
“I've actually had to reactivate my Facebook and Instagram accounts, which were dormant, so that we could actually have them be verified, so that then it's easier to shut them down”
Chamath Palihapitiya May 24, 2024 ▶ 11:33 Scarlett Johansson vs OpenAI, Nvidia's trillion-dollar problem, a vibecession, plastic in our balls
Jun 14, 2024 negative
Opinion
Palihapitiya claims Apple weaponizes privacy selectively against Meta while favoring OpenAI
“Apple really cares about privacy when they're trying to hurt a company they don't like, i.e. Meta. And they're willing to figure out a way to work around it when it's a company that they clearly support, OpenAI.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Jun 14, 2024 ▶ 49:53 Elon gets paid, Apple's AI pop, OpenAI revenue rip, Macro debate & Inside Trump Fundraiser
Jul 10, 2024 negative
Opinion
Calacanis: TikTok's black-box AI algorithm is more pernicious than earlier gamified social media
“So you had the gamification of Twitter and Facebook, which was likes. Retweets, follower count, Instagram, and then now it's transitioned into something even more pernicious, which is some black box on, in TikTok knows this is going to maximize the dopamine hi…”
Jason Calacanis Jul 10, 2024 ▶ 7:17 Jonathan Haidt: How to Help the Anxious Generation | The All-In Interview
Aug 9, 2024 negative
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Friedberg: Strong push coming to curb power of Meta, X, and Google
“I think that because of how inflamed people are at the influence that these companies have meta and Twitter and Google, there is going to be a strong push to do a lot more than what the narrow focus of the ruling in this particular case to do something much mo…”
David Friedberg Aug 9, 2024 ▶ 1:19:36 Yen Carry Trade, Recession odds grow, Buffett cash pile, Google ruled monopoly, Kamala picks Walz
Sep 10, 2024 neutral
Opinion
Vance: Big Tech favors Democrats while Little Tech startups lean Republican
“Big tech has become increasingly pro-Democrat. Little tech has become increasingly pro-Republican, right? So if you're an upstart, if you're in crypto, if you're like a small AI company, I think you're much more likely to be pro-Republican. If you're a monopol…”
JD Vance Sep 10, 2024 ▶ 23:08 JD Vance | All-In Summit 2024
Sep 27, 2024 positive
Assertion Contradicted
Calacanis: Google, Uber, Airbnb, Meta doubled revenue per employee in 2-3 years
“If you look at Google, Uber, Airbnb, and Facebook Meta, They have the same number or less employees than they did three years ago, but they're all growing in that 20 to 30% a year, which means in but two to three years, each of those companies has doubled reve…”
Jason Calacanis Sep 27, 2024 ▶ 40:07 OpenAI's $150B conversion, Meta's AR glasses, Blue-collar boom, Risk of nuclear war
Oct 3, 2024 negative
Opinion
Cuban: Breaking up Google and Meta hurts US AI competitiveness
“The most important thing from a technological perspective in this country today Is that we win AI. That is going to find everything militarily for us and economically for us, and that when you try to break up companies like Google and Facebook, you diminish ou…”
Mark Cuban Oct 3, 2024 ▶ 53:54 Mark Cuban: Love/Hate Relationship with Trump, Why He's Backing Kamala Harris
Oct 3, 2024 positive
Opinion
Cuban: Google's Gemini 1.5, NotebookLM, and Meta open source are insanely good
“Notebook is insanely good. Gemini, 1.5 is insanely good. Meta as open source and what they're doing is getting better and better.”
Mark Cuban Oct 3, 2024 ▶ 2:01:16 Mark Cuban: Love/Hate Relationship with Trump, Why He's Backing Kamala Harris
Oct 3, 2024 bullish
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Chamath: Big Tech incumbents consistently win when threatened by upstarts
“And I think in, in the last 20 or 25 years, what you've seen is those companies, when their backs are against the wall, they use money, they're sharp elbowed, but the consistent thing is they've won.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Oct 3, 2024 ▶ 2:02:55 Mark Cuban: Love/Hate Relationship with Trump, Why He's Backing Kamala Harris
Oct 11, 2024 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Palihapitiya: DOJ will target Meta for breakup after Google
“So I think that they, if given their druthers, they being the powers that be in Washington, will probably want to take a run at both of these companies. They'll start with the one that they think they can disassemble the quickest, and then they'll go to Meta a…”
Chamath Palihapitiya Oct 11, 2024 ▶ 46:26 Hurricane fallout, AlphaFold, Google breakup, Trump surge, VC giveback, TikTok survey
Dec 7, 2024 positive
What-if
Baker: Meta's Libra project would have eliminated immigrant remittance fees
“And I think you can argue it would have been really, really good for not just America, but the entire world. You know, there are a lot of immigrants in America and in America who send remissions back to their home countries at extremely high predatory rates. Y…”
Gavin Baker Dec 7, 2024 ▶ 23:25 New SEC Chair, Bitcoin, xAI Supercomputer, UnitedHealth CEO murder, with Gavin Baker & Joe Lonsdale
Dec 20, 2024 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Calacanis: OpenAI will drop to 3rd, 4th, or 5th AI player within three years
“I think we've hit peak open AI in the market. I think they're going to be the number three or four player. I think Gemini, Meta and XAI are going to lead them. If we're sitting here in three years, I think OpenAI is number three, four or five, not one or two.”
Jason Calacanis Dec 20, 2024 ▶ 1:34:16 DOGE kills its first bill, Zuck vs OpenAI, Google's AI comeback
Dec 20, 2024 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Chamath: Big tech and Elon Musk will win the AI hardware war
“In a capital war, I think the big companies like Google, Amazon, Microsoft, Meta, And brands like Elon will always be able to attract effectively infinite capital, and their cost of capital goes to zero, which means they'll be able to win this hardware war.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Dec 20, 2024 ▶ 1:01:34 DOGE kills its first bill, Zuck vs OpenAI, Google's AI comeback
Dec 25, 2024 positive
Insight
Levie: Zuckerberg's open-source strategy suppresses AI pricing for the industry
“Zuck is our counter pressure on the price of AI right now, and I think that he has a way of monetizing AI that is, I mean, Google kind of has a similar thing, but they're, they have a more existential challenge that I think they're actually doing relatively we…”
Aaron Levie Dec 25, 2024 ▶ 45:52 The All-In Holiday Spectacular
Dec 25, 2024 positive
Assertion Partly supported
Sacks: Meta stock is up 500% over the last two years
“If you look at Facebook's performance or Bando's performance over the last two years, it's up 500%”
David Sacks Dec 25, 2024 ▶ 44:47 The All-In Holiday Spectacular
Jan 11, 2025 negative
Assertion Partly supported
Calacanis: Zuckerberg spent $150M on Meta's Oversight Board to dodge hard decisions
“Zuck created the oversight board. He's so spineless, he decided, I'll create and give a hundred fifty million dollars to this board to make these hard decisions for me, instead of me making the decision.”
Jason Calacanis Jan 11, 2025 ▶ 1:09:35 LA's Wildfire Disaster, Zuck Flips on Free Speech, Why Trump Wants Greenland
Jan 11, 2025 negative
Opinion
Calacanis: Zuckerberg's free speech pivot is strictly to appease Donald Trump
“I think he is terrified of Trump and having his company broken up, and he's doing this strictly to appease Trump.”
Jason Calacanis Jan 11, 2025 ▶ 1:18:43 LA's Wildfire Disaster, Zuck Flips on Free Speech, Why Trump Wants Greenland
Jan 11, 2025 neutral
Assertion Contradicted
Bannister: Zuckerberg listed his profile as libertarian when Facebook launched
“And then along came Facebook and he added this third option called libertarian. And I would like to go to the way back machine at some point and find his profile because his profile said he was a libertarian.”
Cyan Banister Jan 11, 2025 ▶ 1:01:31 LA's Wildfire Disaster, Zuck Flips on Free Speech, Why Trump Wants Greenland
Jan 11, 2025 negative
Prediction Held up
Bannister: 2025 leaks will reveal government coerced Zuckerberg into censoring Meta
“And after January, we're going to find out some interesting stuff and we'll get to the bottom of, you know, how did the government pressure him to censor things? And I think he's getting in front of that because it is going to come out. And I think that is a h…”
Cyan Banister Jan 11, 2025 ▶ 1:13:56 LA's Wildfire Disaster, Zuck Flips on Free Speech, Why Trump Wants Greenland
Jan 11, 2025 negative
What-if
Calacanis: Zuckerberg would have doubled down on censorship if Harris won
“But I can tell you if Kamala Harris had been voted in, he would double down on censorship instead of taking this position.”
Jason Calacanis Jan 11, 2025 ▶ 1:18:37 LA's Wildfire Disaster, Zuck Flips on Free Speech, Why Trump Wants Greenland
Jan 18, 2025
Disclosure
Mark Pincus co-funded Friendster and invested in early Facebook and Twitter rounds
“Yeah, Reed and I put up the first money for Friendster. And then we were lucky enough to invest along with Peter in the first round of Facebook. The first on Twitter, so.”
Mark Pincus Jan 18, 2025 ▶ 4:48 Red-pilled Billionaires, LA Fire Update, Newsom's Price Caps, TikTok Ban, Jobless MBAs
Jan 18, 2025 negative
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Mark Pincus: MBA jobs at Meta and Google have dried up
“Everyone wants a job at Meta or Google, and that's the get rich quick place, and it's, I don't even think that's necessarily true anymore, and they can't get those jobs because those companies are now trying to get rid of middle management. So those jobs have …”
Mark Pincus Jan 18, 2025 ▶ 1:22:59 Red-pilled Billionaires, LA Fire Update, Newsom's Price Caps, TikTok Ban, Jobless MBAs
Jan 25, 2025 positive
Assertion Supported
Chamath: Broadcom is a $1.12T business that receives little attention
“Is that it is the only trillion dollar company that nobody talks about. Everybody knows Nvidia. Everybody knows Amazon Meta, but Broadcom is a 1.12 trillion dollar business.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Jan 25, 2025 ▶ 1:45:13 Trump's First Week: Inauguration Recap, Executive Actions, TikTok, Stargate + Sacks is Back!
Jan 25, 2025 bullish
Assertion Partly supported
Laffont: US TikTok time spent matches Facebook and Instagram combined
“So we get about a hundred million DAUs in the US, but the time spent on the platform is the equivalent of Facebook plus Instagram.”
Thomas Laffont Jan 25, 2025 ▶ 36:07 Trump's First Week: Inauguration Recap, Executive Actions, TikTok, Stargate + Sacks is Back!
Jan 31, 2025 neutral
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Chamath Palihapitiya warns OpenAI's consumer strategy guarantees a collision with Meta
“Which puts them on a collision course with Meta. It's the only company that could really impact that because the only company right now that has Billions of eyeballs of DAUs per day.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Jan 31, 2025 ▶ 30:14 DeepSeek Panic, US vs China, OpenAI $40B?, and Doge Delivers with Travis Kalanick and David Sacks
Feb 7, 2025 positive
Opinion
Chamath: Meta is the only company matching Google in AI ad optimization
“The other thing that Google has is a money machine that directly benefits from these AI driven optimizations on ad targeting. The only other company that has anywhere close to the same credibility is Meta.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Feb 7, 2025 ▶ 1:11:23 DOGE vs USAID, Crypto Framework, Google's $75B AI Spend, US Sovereign Wealth Fund, GLP-1s
Mar 1, 2025
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Calacanis: Big tech companies will buy thousands of $5M Gold Cards
“I gotta tell you, I think out of the gate, Apple, Meta, Microsoft buy, you know, one to 10,000 of these.”
Jason Calacanis Mar 1, 2025 ▶ 51:28 Epstein Files Flop, State of the Market, Autonomous Robots, Trump's Gold Card, Friedberg on Jeopardy
Mar 8, 2025 neutral
Assertion Supported
Chamath: Meta is about to launch a standalone app competing with ChatGPT
“And Facebook is about to launch a competitor to ChatGPT and Grok, yeah. A standalone app.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Mar 8, 2025 ▶ 1:29:55 Tariffs, Trump's Economic Endgame, Market Chaos, Bitcoin Reserve, CoreWeave IPO
Mar 29, 2025 negative
Disclosure
Palihapitiya: IRS has sued him and Zuckerberg for a decade over IP
“When I was helping to run Facebook, I was a signatory. When we were setting up Facebook abroad, we exported all of our IP to Ireland. And lo and behold, who do they sue? Zuck, Meta, and me. And we've been in this 10 year lawsuit, 15 year lawsuit with the IRS b…”
Chamath Palihapitiya Mar 29, 2025 ▶ 35:02 The AI Cold War, Signalgate, CoreWeave IPO, Tariff Endgames, El Salvador Deportations
May 31, 2025 positive
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Palihapitiya: Meta and Google can fund frontier AI model development indefinitely
“Meta and Google, frankly, sit on these money gushers where they just generate so much capital that they can fund these things to infinity.”
Chamath Palihapitiya May 31, 2025 ▶ 9:54 AI Doom vs Boom, EA Cult Returns, BBB Upside, US Steel and Golden Votes
Jun 21, 2025 negative
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Altman: Meta offered OpenAI staff $100M signing bonuses, but none left
“They started making these like giant offers to you know, a lot of people on our team you know, like a hundred million dollar signing bonuses, more than that comp per year. And I'm actually, it is crazy. I'm really happy that at least so far none of our best pe…”
Sam Altman Jun 21, 2025 ▶ 11:03 IPOs and SPACs are Back, Mag 7 Showdown, Zuck on Tilt, Apple's Fumble, GENIUS Act passes Senate
Jun 21, 2025 negative
Opinion
Chamath: Apple is missing out on top AI and machine learning talent
“I have to think that Apple is not getting any of those people. So by the time you end up at Apple, It's just a different caliber of person.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Jun 21, 2025 ▶ 44:23 IPOs and SPACs are Back, Mag 7 Showdown, Zuck on Tilt, Apple's Fumble, GENIUS Act passes Senate
Jul 4, 2025 neutral
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Chamath: Meta offers $300M-$500M compensation packages to top AI talent
“You have Meta giving individual human beings, 300 to five hundred million dollar packages, like their NBA first team all-stars.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Jul 4, 2025 ▶ 1:11:48 Big Beautiful Bill, Elon/Trump, Dollar Down Big, Harvard's Money Problems, Figma IPO
Jul 11, 2025 neutral
Assertion Supported
Chamath: Meta spent $15B to buy 49% of Scale AI
“They just spent fifteen billion to buy 49% of scale AI.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Jul 11, 2025 ▶ 23:28 Grok 4 Wows, The Bitter Lesson, Third Party, AI Browsers, SCOTUS backs POTUS on RIFs
Jul 23, 2025 negative
Opinion
Buchheit: Meta faces existential threat as users switch from Instagram to ChatGPT
“Facebook has clearly fallen behind and that's a real threat, right? Because Facebook actually competes with AI. Like, people are switching from Instagram to ChatGPT.”
Paul Buchheit Jul 23, 2025 ▶ 1:11:48 Winning the AI Race Part 1: Michael Kratsios, Kelly Loeffler, Shyam Sankar, Chris Power
Jul 24, 2025 positive
Assertion Supported
Trump claims Big Tech is investing $320 billion in AI infrastructure
“Meta, Amazon, Google, Microsoft are all investing three hundred and twenty billion dollars or more in data centers and AI infrastructure this year.”
Donald J. Trump Jul 24, 2025 ▶ 38:29 Winning the AI Race Part 5: President Trump on the AI Action Plan
Oct 18, 2025 negative
Assertion Supported
Calacanis: Headcounts at Meta, Uber, and Amazon have dropped from peak levels
“You know, Meta peaked at 86,000 employees now at 75. Uber at 33, now at 31. And Amazon, where you would think you'd have a lot of growth here they're at, they peaked at 1.6 and now they're down at 1.55.”
Jason Calacanis Oct 18, 2025 ▶ 1:12:59 Trump: Send National Guard to SF, China Rare Earths Trade War, AI's PR Crisis
Nov 22, 2025 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Chamath: AI decoding chip market will quickly become highly fragmented
“What we are quickly seeing is that there's going to be a highly fragmented layer of decoding chips that exist in the marketplace. Grok is one. TPU is one. Microsoft has a spin. Amazon has Inferentia. Facebook, I think, is Apparently spinning up their own silic…”
Chamath Palihapitiya Nov 22, 2025 ▶ 36:09 Epstein Files Fallout, Nvidia Risks, Burry's Bad Bet, Google's Breakthrough, Tether's Boom
Dec 6, 2025 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Calacanis: Consumer paid subscriptions for AI chat will fall to zero
“Right now, 80% of the revenue comes from 20 dollar subscriptions. That's going to get decimated to zero. I don't think consumers are going to pay For this product, just like they won't pay for search, and they won't pay for a browser, because Google and Meta w…”
Jason Calacanis Dec 6, 2025 ▶ 16:08 OpenAI's Code Red, Sacks vs New York Times, New Poverty Line?
Dec 6, 2025 bearish
Prediction Open · timeframe Dec 2030
Calacanis: Google will make top Gemini models free for life
“They're going to make Gemini free for life for the best models. That's my prediction for Google, and I think Meta will be right behind them.”
Jason Calacanis Dec 6, 2025 ▶ 15:33 OpenAI's Code Red, Sacks vs New York Times, New Poverty Line?
Dec 6, 2025 negative
Opinion
Chamath: Meta is quite behind in AI
“It favors Meta, although Meta's quite behind.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Dec 6, 2025 ▶ 3:05 OpenAI's Code Red, Sacks vs New York Times, New Poverty Line?
Jan 10, 2026 neutral
Assertion Supported
Chamath: Meta attempted to acquire Manus for $2.5 billion
“Well, if you just look at what Facebook tried to do, they tried to buy Manus for two and a half billion dollars.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Jan 10, 2026 ▶ 52:18 All-In's 2026 Predictions
Jan 10, 2026 bullish
Prediction Open · timeframe Dec 2026
Calacanis: Big Tech will make a $50B+ AI acquisition in 2026
“For twenty-twenty-six, I think we're going to see some massive M&A. It doesn't matter to me how it occurs, but I do think we're going to see a fifty billion plus deal, and I think it could be, ah, one of the Mac seven, an Apple, a Meta, a Microsoft, or an Amaz…”
Jason Calacanis Jan 10, 2026 ▶ 53:48 All-In's 2026 Predictions
Mar 27, 2026 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Calacanis: All consumer AI queries will eventually be free
“My base case here is that all consumer queries are going to be free. Apple's going to make them free. They're already free for Google. I think Meta is going to make them free and actually have a decent product soon, and Microsoft, same thing.”
Jason Calacanis Mar 27, 2026 ▶ 20:24 Anthropic's Generational Run, OpenAI Panics, AI Moats, Meta Loses Major Lawsuits
Apr 6, 2026 neutral
Insight
Stephens: Missing single category winners usually leads to net investment losses
“If you're a space tech investor and you didn't invest in SpaceX, you probably lost money. If you're a crypto infrastructure investor and you didn't invest in Coinbase, Probably lost money. If you're a social media investor and you didn't invest in Facebook, yo…”
Trey Stevens Apr 6, 2026 ▶ 19:06 The State of Modern War: Palantir & Anduril Execs on Drones, AI, and the End of Traditional Warfare
May 22, 2026 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Zuckerberg: Meta's internal engineers will accelerate AI coding progress beyond rivals
“Having people internally build tools that, or solve tasks that that help teach the model how to code, We think is going to dramatically increase our model's coding ability faster than what others in the industry have the capability to do, who don't have thousa…”
Mark Zuckerberg May 22, 2026 ▶ 38:42 SpaceX’s $2T Case, Nvidia’s Shock Selloff, America Turns on AI, Trump Pulls AI Order, Bond Crisis?
May 29, 2026 negative
What-if
Chamath: Meta capping headcount at 3,000 would not have changed its outcome
“Ok, you could have stopped the company at 3000 people when I left, and it would not have changed the outcome of that company. There was no need to go to 90,000 people and burn fifty billion dollars on VR.”
Chamath Palihapitiya May 29, 2026 ▶ 1:12:45 Anthropic's Digital God, Pope vs AI, Job Loss Narrative Flips, Open Source Crackdown Coming?
May 29, 2026
Assertion Supported
Calacanis: Amazon, Google, and Meta lobbied Vatican on AI encyclical
“The folks at Amazon, Google, and Meta lobbied the Vatican on April, 29th to soften the language in his missive.”
Jason Calacanis May 29, 2026 ▶ 19:32 Anthropic's Digital God, Pope vs AI, Job Loss Narrative Flips, Open Source Crackdown Coming?
Jun 3, 2026 bullish
Opinion
Ackman: Amazon, Meta, and Microsoft are undervalued amid AI hype
“I think a similar thing is happening today, in a sense, to Amazon and Meta, Microsoft.”
Bill Ackman Jun 3, 2026 ▶ 6:40 Bill Ackman: Here's What the Market is MISSING
Jun 4, 2026
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Laffont: About 25% of Meta and Google ads are currently AI-enabled
“We estimate, currently, that about a quarter of ads served by Meta and Google are AI-enabled.”
Thomas Laffont Jun 4, 2026 ▶ 15:38 Thomas Laffont: The $4T AI IPO Wave Is Coming… and We’ve Never Seen Anything Like It
Jun 13, 2026 negative
Opinion
Chamath: Meta fumbled its open-source AI strategy with Llama
“Meta really fumbled this with Llama.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Jun 13, 2026 ▶ 23:16 Anthropic's Fable Backlash, Nationalizing AI, Inflation Heats Up & California’s Broken Elections
Jul 21, 2026 negative
Assertion Supported
Cuban: Tech leaders like Google and Meta are borrowing billions
“What's happening now is the market leaders, Google, et cetera, Meta, they're borrowing hundreds of millions, billions of dollars.”
Mark Cuban Jul 21, 2026 ▶ 2:14 Mark Cuban on the AI Bubble: Who Actually Gets Wiped Out?
Aug 13, 2026 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Calacanis: Zuckerberg will have the best open-source AI model within a year
“He is going to have the best open source model in the next year. I guarantee it.”
Jason Calacanis Aug 13, 2026 ▶ 55:43 Anthropic's $2T IPO, Zuck's AI Manifesto, Nvidia's $500B AI Bet, Grok's Comeback
Aug 13, 2026 negative
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Calacanis: Meta sued every startup attempting to index its social graph
“Zuckerberg, please explain how this concept is compatible with the fact that you have sued every startup, many of which I've invested in, that has ever tried to index or use the social graph at Instagram or Facebook.”
Jason Calacanis Aug 13, 2026 ▶ 41:37 Anthropic's $2T IPO, Zuck's AI Manifesto, Nvidia's $500B AI Bet, Grok's Comeback
Aug 21, 2026 neutral
Assertion Supported
Sacks: Meta faces over $1T in addiction lawsuits after $6M LA verdict
“Look at what's happening to Meta right now. They're getting sued because supposedly their product led to social media addiction and they're being sued for over a trillion dollars right now. And this comes on the heel of them losing a six million dollar jury tr…”
David Sacks Aug 21, 2026 ▶ 18:38 Dario Defends Himself, Datacenter Panic, AI Doomer Trap, Senate Toss-Up
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