why aren't all 20 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Uytdehaage: Only Adyen and Stripe globally invest in fintech infrastructure
“Because I think we are the only two companies globally that are investing in technology, in financial technology.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Chamath: Adyen is the only company with AI in production at scale
“He may be the first, I mean, Adyen, I think, is the first and really only company that's implemented AI in production at scale.”
Opinion
Chamath: Stripe is worth $25B, a 50% markdown from its recent valuation
“And I think the answer is that Stripe at that fifty billion dollar round, fifty-five billion dollar round is worth twenty-five billion. So there's a 50% markdown right there.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Uytdehaage predicts public and private fintech valuation gaps will rationalize
“I think so. Ultimately, if we're both public you're going to compare the same numbers and it's a combination of growth rate and profitability.”
Disclosure
Uytdehaage: Adyen has a US banking license and direct Fed access
“So in the US we have our own access to the FED. We have a license, a banking license in the US. So we don't need commercial banks to be successful.”
Disclosure
Adyen will not launch its own stablecoin but considers partnering with stablecoins
“No, I think we would consider working with stable coins.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Uytdehaage: Most Adyen volume comes from displacing legacy banks
“But if you see where we win most of our business, it's with the traditional businesses. So indeed, the incumbents, the banks, that's where volume comes from.”
Insight
Chamath: Payment processors like Stripe and Adyen fundamentally lack pricing power
“The thing to remember about all these businesses, Stripe, Adyen, PayPal, is that they're middlemen businesses, which by definition means that they don't have pricing power. They actually have to reflect the prevalent pricing power of the incumbent sponsors of …”
Opinion
Uytdehaage: Chinese domestic market is super difficult for payment providers
“I think the Chinese domestic market is a super difficult market to be active.”
Disclosure
Uytdehaage says Adyen does not need a US stock listing
“If I would list in the U.S., like, if there would be no liquidity in Europe, I would list in the U.S., but there is sufficient liquidity in Europe, so you need to have certain size, but we have the size. There is liquidity, liquidity, so it's not needed.”
Disclosure
Uytdehaage: Adyen secured Indian licenses and local data center infrastructure
“We have local data centers now in India. We got all the licenses and we're one of the few international companies, maybe the only one right now that can offer this to international companies that want to go domestic or international companies that want to go c…”
Assertion Supported
Uytdehaage: Adyen has over one billion unique shoppers on its platform
“The data set that we sit on, like we have, I think, over a billion unique shoppers in our platform, so it's a billion humans.”
Disclosure
Uytdehaage: Adyen's China strategy focuses on merchants expanding to US
“We have a huge team in China selling basically to Chinese merchants that want to go here in the US.”
Assertion Supported
Chamath: Adyen processed nearly €1T volume with 46% EBITDA margin in 2023
“In 2023, Adyen processed nearly a trillion euro in payment volume. They had net revenue of 1.6 billion euros and an EBITDA, Jesus Christ, EBITDA of seven hundred and forty three million euros, a 46% EBITDA margin.”
Disclosure
The US accounts for over one-third of Adyen's total revenue
“Already one third of our total revenues at the US.”
Assertion Supported
Adyen's AI U.S. debit routing yields 20%+ cost savings for merchants
“We just also launched a new way of U.S. Debit routing in the U.S. Where AI helps us to make the best trade-off for merchants to lower the cost, so you get a 20% plus lower cost if you route that well, and at the same time higher authorization rates.”
Prediction Held up
Chamath: Adyen and Stripe will process almost $2 trillion in volume
“Adyen and Stripe are gonna process two trillion dollars almost.”
Assertion Contradicted
Chamath: Adyen charges enterprise customers roughly 1.3% to 1.4% per transaction
“Whereas if you go to the head, I think Adyen is charging like 1.3 or four percent.”
Assertion Supported
Chamath: Adyen reported 24% year-over-year revenue growth in H1 2024
“The company reported a 24% year-on-year revenue growth in h-one 24.”
Assertion Not publicly verifiable
Uytdehaage says 60% to 65% of Adyen investors were US-based at IPO
“We have a fully, the US almost like 60, 65% at the listing US investor base.”