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Patrick Collison

Co-founder & CEO, Stripe · 1 appearance on the record.

computed by AI from the episodes · how this works → · full disclaimer →

founderexecutiveinvestor@patrickc ↗patrickcollison.com ↗Wikipedia ↗Instagram ↗

Patrick Collison co-founded Stripe with his brother John Collison in 2010, developing it into one of the world’s leading digital payments and financial infrastructure platforms. He also co-founded the Arc Institute and previously sold his first startup, Auctomatic, in 2008.

14statements → 13claims → 9claims resolved → 33%fully supported → 3.64/5average certainty → 2/5average debate potential → ≈4.0/5argument clarity, estimated → 15said about them ↓

3 supported 4 partly supported 2 contradicted 4 not checkable as stated how the 13 claims stand · each chip opens the sources

2 predictions · 11 assertions · 1 disclosure · every statement was checked. The predictions and assertions are the 13 claims: statements the public record can support or contradict. 9 are resolved, and 4 name no date, number or outcome precise enough to check. Everything else (opinions, insights, what ifs, disclosures) can never be settled by the record, so it carries no assessment.

The record, in short

What the tape says about how Patrick argues and how the claims held up. Everything they said, and everything said about them, is in the tabs below.

Their most notable supported claim

Assertion Supported
Patrick Collison: 79% of surveyed top scientists would alter research without NIH grants
“We ran a survey of scientists back a couple of years ago of top scientists, and four out of five, like, 79% of them told us That if they could just spend money however they wanted, if they weren't kind of limited by, you know, what they're prescribed by these …”
Patrick Collison Feb 22, 2025 ▶ 1:01:11 The Stablecoin Future, Milei's Memecoin, DOGE for the DoD, Grok 3, Why Stripe Stays Private

Their most notable contradicted claim

Assertion Contradicted
Patrick Collison: Arc Institute's Evo 2 is the largest biology ML model ever
“Yesterday, AHRQ released this new foundation model for biology. It's the largest biology ML model ever. It's actually, I think the largest open source AI model ever.”
Patrick Collison Feb 22, 2025 ▶ 1:03:39 The Stablecoin Future, Milei's Memecoin, DOGE for the DoD, Grok 3, Why Stripe Stays Private

Expressed certainty vs assessment result

none yet certainty 1
none yet certainty 2
33% certainty 3
67% certainty 4
none yet certainty 5

weighted support: a fully supported claim counts one, a partly supported claim counts half. Each filled bar is clickable and opens exactly those claims; "none yet" means nothing said at that certainty level has resolved yet

How they sound: speaking style how? →

292 words/min while actually speaking · 25.7 um and uh per 1k words

No argument clarity score for Patrick Collison: only 6 usable question→answer exchanges on raw tape (a fair score needs 8+). We do not score a sample that small. Roundtable and news formats yield far fewer direct exchanges than interviews. Their coarse estimate from 6 raw tape exchanges is ≈4.0/5, shown at half point precision because the sample is small.

Measured by listening to the audio itself: 6,025 words across 1 episode of raw-level tape, transcribed verbatim with every um and uh kept, each one attributed only where the alignment onto our timed stream is unambiguous. These are measurements of speaking style. We do not rank them: across this corpus, fluency and argument quality are nearly uncorrelated (ρ≈0.2), and smooth talking does not signal clear thinking. How it's measured →

Everything Patrick Collison said on All-In that made the record, most notable first. Filter by type, assessment or year in the ledger →

Prediction Not checkable as stated
Patrick Collison: Stablecoins will probably become the common payment rail
“I think stablecoins are going to be a big part of a big part of the solution. I actually don't think that's going to supplant all the consumer-facing networks. I think we're going to see consumer-facing networks It's built upon and that, you know, substantiall…”
Patrick Collison Feb 22, 2025 ▶ 19:24 The Stablecoin Future, Milei's Memecoin, DOGE for the DoD, Grok 3, Why Stripe Stays Private
Assertion Supported
Patrick Collison: 79% of surveyed top scientists would alter research without NIH grants
“We ran a survey of scientists back a couple of years ago of top scientists, and four out of five, like, 79% of them told us That if they could just spend money however they wanted, if they weren't kind of limited by, you know, what they're prescribed by these …”
Patrick Collison Feb 22, 2025 ▶ 1:01:11 The Stablecoin Future, Milei's Memecoin, DOGE for the DoD, Grok 3, Why Stripe Stays Private
Assertion Partly supported
Patrick Collison: Credit card programs are not major bank profit pools
“Card programs are not actually big profit pools for most of the major banks.”
Patrick Collison Feb 22, 2025 ▶ 9:20 The Stablecoin Future, Milei's Memecoin, DOGE for the DoD, Grok 3, Why Stripe Stays Private
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Patrick Collison: Stripe fraud metrics dropped 80% over past two years
“Various fraud metrics across the industry and the ecosystem are way up over the last couple of years. And Stripe's actually down by 80%”
Patrick Collison Feb 22, 2025 ▶ 20:15 The Stablecoin Future, Milei's Memecoin, DOGE for the DoD, Grok 3, Why Stripe Stays Private
Assertion Contradicted
Patrick Collison: Arc Institute's Evo 2 is the largest biology ML model ever
“Yesterday, AHRQ released this new foundation model for biology. It's the largest biology ML model ever. It's actually, I think the largest open source AI model ever.”
Patrick Collison Feb 22, 2025 ▶ 1:03:39 The Stablecoin Future, Milei's Memecoin, DOGE for the DoD, Grok 3, Why Stripe Stays Private
Assertion Supported
Patrick Collison: Evo 2 achieves state-of-the-art human mutation prediction from one human genome
“It's trained on nine trillion base pair gene tokens. So, you know ChatGBT, LLMs are normally trained on, on, you know, the, on, on human language. This is a language model, but it's trained on, on DNA, the language of life. And there's only one human genome in…”
Patrick Collison Feb 22, 2025 ▶ 1:04:09 The Stablecoin Future, Milei's Memecoin, DOGE for the DoD, Grok 3, Why Stripe Stays Private
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Patrick Collison says companies lose 1% to 3% revenue to AP/AR
“If you look at most companies, they're losing one, two, three percent of revenue to AP and AR.”
Patrick Collison Feb 22, 2025 ▶ 13:30 The Stablecoin Future, Milei's Memecoin, DOGE for the DoD, Grok 3, Why Stripe Stays Private
Assertion Partly supported
Patrick Collison says Stripe Billing reached $500 million ARR
“Stripe Billing, which we actually just announced last week has passed, you know, half a billion in, in ARR.”
Patrick Collison Feb 22, 2025 ▶ 13:56 The Stablecoin Future, Milei's Memecoin, DOGE for the DoD, Grok 3, Why Stripe Stays Private
Assertion Supported
Patrick Collison: US labor productivity has risen 20% in 10 years
“Libra productivity in the US is up, like, 20% in the last 10 years, and so just like, again, you just look at the data, just the median person in the economy, or the average person, is is producing 20% on an inflation-adjusted basis, more than they were 10 yea…”
Patrick Collison Feb 22, 2025 ▶ 33:59 The Stablecoin Future, Milei's Memecoin, DOGE for the DoD, Grok 3, Why Stripe Stays Private
Assertion Partly supported
Patrick Collison: Proposed DoD cuts match magnitude of 2010–2025 spending changes
“As far as I can tell, the cuts proposed Over the next couple of years for the Defense Department are of approximately the same magnitude as the reduction in the defense budget that occurred between 2010 and today”
Patrick Collison Feb 22, 2025 ▶ 41:22 The Stablecoin Future, Milei's Memecoin, DOGE for the DoD, Grok 3, Why Stripe Stays Private
Assertion Partly supported
Patrick Collison: US federal spending dropped five percentage points of GDP under Clinton
“I think federal spending fell by five points of GDP over the course of the Clinton presidency, which is really not a small amount, you know?”
Patrick Collison Feb 22, 2025 ▶ 59:15 The Stablecoin Future, Milei's Memecoin, DOGE for the DoD, Grok 3, Why Stripe Stays Private
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Patrick Collison: Powerful biological AI models will require phenotypic data
“There's a certain amount you can probably derive sort of, you know, from first principles just by looking at genomes, but I think the really powerful models are going to need to do exactly what you say, and to feed in a lot of ancillary, phenotypic, and just k…”
Patrick Collison Feb 22, 2025 ▶ 1:13:18 The Stablecoin Future, Milei's Memecoin, DOGE for the DoD, Grok 3, Why Stripe Stays Private
Disclosure
Patrick Collison: Arc Institute spends around $100 million annually
“So ARK spends around, ah, a hundred million a year. And it started about, ah, three years ago.”
Patrick Collison Feb 22, 2025 ▶ 1:11:02 The Stablecoin Future, Milei's Memecoin, DOGE for the DoD, Grok 3, Why Stripe Stays Private
Assertion Contradicted
Patrick Collison: Henry Kaiser expanded Richmond shipyards from zero to 100,000 workers in one year
“When he had the ship, the shipbuilding yards here, he went from zero to a 100,000 people in Richmond in one year.”
Patrick Collison Feb 22, 2025 ▶ 1:25:12 The Stablecoin Future, Milei's Memecoin, DOGE for the DoD, Grok 3, Why Stripe Stays Private

The other half of the tape: Patrick Collison's own voice is left out of every number here. Other people bring the name up 13 times in 8 episodes on All-In. 2 statements on the record name them. every mention, with the transcript →

Who brings them up most Chamath Palihapitiya 6David Friedberg 3Michael Dell 1Jason Calacanis 1David Sacks 1Aaron Levie 1

Statements about Patrick Collison, by other people (2)

Prediction Open · timeframe Apr 2024
Friedberg predicts Stripe will become the most valuable private company
“That's gonna be the most valuable, valuable company. That's private right now.”
David Friedberg Apr 23, 2021 ▶ 57:32 E30: Ramifications of Biden's proposed capital gains tax hike, founder psychology & more
Disclosure
John Collison: Patrick and I will still be running Stripe in 10 to 20 years
“This is our life's work. You know, we're not going anywhere. We'll be very happily running Stripe in 10 years' time, in 20 years' time.”
John Collison Feb 22, 2025 ▶ 1:40:47 The Stablecoin Future, Milei's Memecoin, DOGE for the DoD, Grok 3, Why Stripe Stays Private

Every mention by year

tap a year for its mentions
002142202120222023202420252026episodesmentions
012202120222023202420252026episodes it came up in
002142202120222023202420252026episodesmentions per episode
2026 1 mention in 1 episode
2025 2 mentions in 2 episodes 1 per episode
2024 2 mentions in 1 episode
2023 1 mention in 1 episode
2022 3 mentions in 2 episodes 2 per episode
2021 4 mentions in 1 episode

Appearances (1)

EpisodeDateSpeaking time
The Stablecoin Future, Milei's Memecoin, DOGE for the DoD, Grok 3, Why Stripe Stays Privat Feb 22, 2025 25m
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