The Ledger

Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.

clear all ✕

why aren't all 14 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable

Prediction Not checkable as stated
Patrick Collison: Stablecoins will probably become the common payment rail
“I think stablecoins are going to be a big part of a big part of the solution. I actually don't think that's going to supplant all the consumer-facing networks. I think we're going to see consumer-facing networks It's built upon and that, you know, substantiall…”
Patrick Collison Feb 22, 2025 ▶ 19:24 The Stablecoin Future, Milei's Memecoin, DOGE for the DoD, Grok 3, Why Stripe Stays Private
Assertion Supported
Patrick Collison: 79% of surveyed top scientists would alter research without NIH grants
“We ran a survey of scientists back a couple of years ago of top scientists, and four out of five, like, 79% of them told us That if they could just spend money however they wanted, if they weren't kind of limited by, you know, what they're prescribed by these …”
Patrick Collison Feb 22, 2025 ▶ 1:01:11 The Stablecoin Future, Milei's Memecoin, DOGE for the DoD, Grok 3, Why Stripe Stays Private
Assertion Partly supported
Patrick Collison: Credit card programs are not major bank profit pools
“Card programs are not actually big profit pools for most of the major banks.”
Patrick Collison Feb 22, 2025 ▶ 9:20 The Stablecoin Future, Milei's Memecoin, DOGE for the DoD, Grok 3, Why Stripe Stays Private
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Patrick Collison: Stripe fraud metrics dropped 80% over past two years
“Various fraud metrics across the industry and the ecosystem are way up over the last couple of years. And Stripe's actually down by 80%”
Patrick Collison Feb 22, 2025 ▶ 20:15 The Stablecoin Future, Milei's Memecoin, DOGE for the DoD, Grok 3, Why Stripe Stays Private
Assertion Contradicted
Patrick Collison: Arc Institute's Evo 2 is the largest biology ML model ever
“Yesterday, AHRQ released this new foundation model for biology. It's the largest biology ML model ever. It's actually, I think the largest open source AI model ever.”
Patrick Collison Feb 22, 2025 ▶ 1:03:39 The Stablecoin Future, Milei's Memecoin, DOGE for the DoD, Grok 3, Why Stripe Stays Private
Assertion Supported
Patrick Collison: Evo 2 achieves state-of-the-art human mutation prediction from one human genome
“It's trained on nine trillion base pair gene tokens. So, you know ChatGBT, LLMs are normally trained on, on, you know, the, on, on human language. This is a language model, but it's trained on, on DNA, the language of life. And there's only one human genome in…”
Patrick Collison Feb 22, 2025 ▶ 1:04:09 The Stablecoin Future, Milei's Memecoin, DOGE for the DoD, Grok 3, Why Stripe Stays Private
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Patrick Collison says companies lose 1% to 3% revenue to AP/AR
“If you look at most companies, they're losing one, two, three percent of revenue to AP and AR.”
Patrick Collison Feb 22, 2025 ▶ 13:30 The Stablecoin Future, Milei's Memecoin, DOGE for the DoD, Grok 3, Why Stripe Stays Private
Assertion Partly supported
Patrick Collison says Stripe Billing reached $500 million ARR
“Stripe Billing, which we actually just announced last week has passed, you know, half a billion in, in ARR.”
Patrick Collison Feb 22, 2025 ▶ 13:56 The Stablecoin Future, Milei's Memecoin, DOGE for the DoD, Grok 3, Why Stripe Stays Private
Assertion Supported
Patrick Collison: US labor productivity has risen 20% in 10 years
“Libra productivity in the US is up, like, 20% in the last 10 years, and so just like, again, you just look at the data, just the median person in the economy, or the average person, is is producing 20% on an inflation-adjusted basis, more than they were 10 yea…”
Patrick Collison Feb 22, 2025 ▶ 33:59 The Stablecoin Future, Milei's Memecoin, DOGE for the DoD, Grok 3, Why Stripe Stays Private
Assertion Partly supported
Patrick Collison: Proposed DoD cuts match magnitude of 2010–2025 spending changes
“As far as I can tell, the cuts proposed Over the next couple of years for the Defense Department are of approximately the same magnitude as the reduction in the defense budget that occurred between 2010 and today”
Patrick Collison Feb 22, 2025 ▶ 41:22 The Stablecoin Future, Milei's Memecoin, DOGE for the DoD, Grok 3, Why Stripe Stays Private
Assertion Partly supported
Patrick Collison: US federal spending dropped five percentage points of GDP under Clinton
“I think federal spending fell by five points of GDP over the course of the Clinton presidency, which is really not a small amount, you know?”
Patrick Collison Feb 22, 2025 ▶ 59:15 The Stablecoin Future, Milei's Memecoin, DOGE for the DoD, Grok 3, Why Stripe Stays Private
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Patrick Collison: Powerful biological AI models will require phenotypic data
“There's a certain amount you can probably derive sort of, you know, from first principles just by looking at genomes, but I think the really powerful models are going to need to do exactly what you say, and to feed in a lot of ancillary, phenotypic, and just k…”
Patrick Collison Feb 22, 2025 ▶ 1:13:18 The Stablecoin Future, Milei's Memecoin, DOGE for the DoD, Grok 3, Why Stripe Stays Private
Disclosure
Patrick Collison: Arc Institute spends around $100 million annually
“So ARK spends around, ah, a hundred million a year. And it started about, ah, three years ago.”
Patrick Collison Feb 22, 2025 ▶ 1:11:02 The Stablecoin Future, Milei's Memecoin, DOGE for the DoD, Grok 3, Why Stripe Stays Private
Assertion Contradicted
Patrick Collison: Henry Kaiser expanded Richmond shipyards from zero to 100,000 workers in one year
“When he had the ship, the shipbuilding yards here, he went from zero to a 100,000 people in Richmond in one year.”
Patrick Collison Feb 22, 2025 ▶ 1:25:12 The Stablecoin Future, Milei's Memecoin, DOGE for the DoD, Grok 3, Why Stripe Stays Private
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