The Ledger

Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.

clear all ✕

why aren't all 3 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 2 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable

Prediction Open · timeframe Sep 2050
Musk: Mars could become self-sustaining in roughly 25 to 30 years
“I think it can be done in, in 30 years. Provided there's an exponential increase in the tonnage to Mars, with each successive Mars transfer windows, which is every two years. So every two years, the planets align, and you can transfer to Mars. So I think in, R…”
Elon Musk Sep 10, 2025 ▶ 43:47 Elon Musk on DOGE, Optimus, Starlink Smartphones, Evolving with AI, Why the West is Imploding
Prediction Open · timeframe Oct 2030
Palihapitiya predicts Tesla's first million humanoid robots will go to Mars
“If I had to bet, I think a very fun poly market is where do the first million robots go? I'm willing to bet dollars to donuts that these robots go to Mars.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Oct 24, 2025 ▶ 1:00:57 NBA Gambling Scandal, Billionaire Tax, Tesla's Future, Amazon Robots, AWS Outage, Dangerous AI Bias
Opinion
Baker: Political involvement is not the best use of Elon Musk's talents
“I think the American party is a great idea. I just don't know that it is the highest and best use of Elon's talents at this moment in time with what's happening with AI. And just, you know, to the extent Elon is a friend of the pod, I just think staying focuse…”
Gavin Baker Jul 19, 2025 ▶ 17:22 Trump vs Powell, Solving the Debt Crisis, The $10T AGI Prize, GENIUS Act Becomes Law
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