The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 10 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 1 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Sacks predicts Figma will not build a competitor to Adobe Photoshop
“Figma has no interest in competing with Photoshop. They're not going to compete. They, they're much more interested in AI. They're much more interested in doing things like prompt to design to code. They're not interested in building, you know, a Photoshop com…”
Palihapitiya: Startups should target monolithic vendors, not bundled platforms
“It's much, much, much easier to build value when you're competing against a monolithic product company versus an entangled platform company.”
Chamath predicts Adobe's $20B acquisition of Figma will close
“If you asked me, if I was a betting man, I think this thing is going to close.”
Sacks: Regulatory delay on Adobe-Figma will chill Silicon Valley M&A
“The fact that regulators took 15 months to analyze the deal, only to come to the conclusion that they basically weren't going to allow it, and then Adobe finally killed it, is going to have a chilling effect on M&A in Silicon Valley. I mean, if acquirers and t…”
Sacks: Acquisition promises of founder independence usually last two years
“When they promise the founder that you'll be left alone, that usually lasts two years. That's coincidentally, usually the length of the earn out or the golden handcuffs.”
Calacanis cites Figma's S-1 metrics: $228M Q1 revenue, $1.5B cash, zero debt
“Figma filed their S one Q one revenues, two hundred and twenty eight million. You remember they were going to get bought by Adobe before, before it got stopped. And they have thirteen million monthly active users, a billion and a half in cash, no debt.”
Sacks: Canceled Adobe-Figma merger would have been worth $30B
“And that, that Figma Adobe deal, it was a twenty billion dollar deal, but with the rise in Adobe stock, it's really a thirty billion dollar deal if it would have been consummated, because half the consideration was in Adobe stock, and that has basically double…”
Calacanis: Adobe Firefly uses licensed stock photography to avoid copyright lawsuits
“They made specific note when they launched this that all of this is done with stock photography. They have the complete license to so they can monetize this without getting sued.”