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OpenAI

also referred to as: open ai

includes OpenAI O1, OpenAI Codex, OpenAI Startup Fund, OpenAI DevDay, OpenAI O3, OpenAI Board, OpenAI Global LLC, OpenAI O1 Preview, OpenAI 5.4, OpenAI Ventures Fund, OpenAI O1 Mini, OpenAI O5 and 1 more

278 statements across 105 episodes · 104 bullish · 73 bearish · 25 people on the record · first statement Dec 3, 2022 by David Friedberg · said 1,464 times in 163 episodes since 2020 · across every show →

Mentions by year, the whole family

brought up most by Jason Calacanis (656), David Sacks (254), Chamath Palihapitiya (216), David Friedberg (127), Brad Gerstner (38), Sarah Friar (36), Gavin Baker (28), Sam Altman (10)

tap a year for its mentions
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025502020202120222023202420252026episodes it came up in
007.52515502020202120222023202420252026episodesmentions per episode
2026 474 mentions in 45 episodes 11 per episode
2025 376 mentions in 48 episodes 8 per episode
2024 406 mentions in 35 episodes 12 per episode
2023 187 mentions in 27 episodes 7 per episode
2022 20 mentions in 7 episodes 3 per episode
2020 1 mention in 1 episode

every mention, scene by scene, with the transcript →

Everything said about OpenAI, oldest first

Dec 3, 2022 neutral
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Friedberg: OpenAI's GPT-3.5 model is around 100 gigabytes in size
“The total size of the software package that runs the model is about a hundred gigabytes.”
David Friedberg Dec 3, 2022 ▶ 1:14:31 E106: SBF's media strategy, FTX culpability, ChatGPT, SaaS slowdown & more
Dec 24, 2022 bullish
Prediction Partly held up
Calacanis: Microsoft will release an OpenAI search engine impacting Google
“Microsoft, I think is going to release a and there's a prediction as well, a search engine with Open AI, that has a significant impact on Google's franchise.”
Jason Calacanis Dec 24, 2022 ▶ 29:33 E109: 2022 Bestie Awards Live from Twitter HQ
Dec 24, 2022 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Friedberg: OpenAI and fusion startups will be long-term business winners
“Over the long term, there were a couple of big, Breakthrough moments that I would give kind of, you know, the winner in business that will benefit over the longterm to open AI and to fusion startups.”
David Friedberg Dec 24, 2022 ▶ 25:47 E109: 2022 Bestie Awards Live from Twitter HQ
Jan 6, 2023 bullish
Prediction Held up
Friedberg: OpenAI will receive a $1B+ investment in 2023
“They're going to get a billion dollar plus investment this year.”
David Friedberg Jan 6, 2023 ▶ 24:55 E110: 2023 Bestie Predictions!
Jan 13, 2023 neutral
Assertion Supported
Friedberg: OpenAI capped previous investor returns at 100x
“In the round that they did before, you could generate a financial return capped at a hundred X, which is still a pretty amazing financial return.”
David Friedberg Jan 13, 2023 ▶ 41:21 E111: Microsoft to invest $10B in OpenAI, generative AI hype, America's over-classification problem
Jan 13, 2023 neutral
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Calacanis: OpenAI spends $3M daily on cloud costs for ChatGPT
“They actually made an interface and let the public play with it to the tune of three million dollars a day in cloud credits or costs.”
Jason Calacanis Jan 13, 2023 ▶ 44:20 E111: Microsoft to invest $10B in OpenAI, generative AI hype, America's over-classification problem
Feb 11, 2023 bearish
Insight
Palihapitiya argues ChatGPT will quickly be commoditized by widespread market competition
“Chat GPT is an incredibly important innovation. But it's an element of a platform who will get quickly commoditized because everybody will compete over time.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Feb 11, 2023 ▶ 42:19 E115: The AI Search Wars: Google vs. Microsoft, Nordstream report, State of the Union
Feb 17, 2023 positive
Opinion
Calacanis calls Sam Altman the 'Keyser Söze' of the tech industry
“I would like to congratulate Sam Altman on the greatest. I mean, it's, he's Kaiser so say of our industry. Sam Altman.”
Jason Calacanis Feb 17, 2023 ▶ 1:27:03 E116: Toxic out-of-control trains, regulators, and AI
Feb 17, 2023 negative
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Sacks: OpenAI leaders shifted from non-profit to for-profit to enrich themselves
“You start with a nonprofit whose jobs promote AI ethics, and in the process of that, the people who are running it realize they can enrich themselves to an unprecedented degree that they turn it into a for-profit.”
David Sacks Feb 17, 2023 ▶ 1:23:46 E116: Toxic out-of-control trains, regulators, and AI
Feb 17, 2023
Assertion Partly supported
Calacanis: Elon Musk donated $50 million to OpenAI, not $1 billion
“No, he contributed fifty million, I think. I don't think it was a billion.”
Jason Calacanis Feb 17, 2023 ▶ 1:29:19 E116: Toxic out-of-control trains, regulators, and AI
Feb 17, 2023 negative
Opinion
Sacks: OpenAI's trust and safety layer shows heavy political bias
“I think there is now mounting evidence that this Safety layer programmed by OpenAI is very biased in a certain direction.”
David Sacks Feb 17, 2023 ▶ 1:00:06 E116: Toxic out-of-control trains, regulators, and AI
Feb 17, 2023 bullish
Prediction Held up
Sacks: OpenAI will release GPT-4 within several months
“GPT-IV is coming out, I think in the next several months, and it's supposedly, you know, a huge advancement over version three.”
David Sacks Feb 17, 2023 ▶ 1:09:37 E116: Toxic out-of-control trains, regulators, and AI
Mar 3, 2023 bearish
Insight
Chamath: OpenAI selling 49% to Microsoft proves foundation models have capped upside
“If it was a highly proprietary asset, you would have never sold 49% of it to Microsoft for ten billion dollars, because you would assume that it was worth a trillion dollars. So it's a huge tell on the part of OpenAI, their deep understanding, and they underst…”
Chamath Palihapitiya Mar 3, 2023 ▶ 18:17 E118: AI FOMO frenzy, macro update, Fox vs Dominion, US vs China & more with Brad Gerstner
Mar 3, 2023 bullish
Insight
Chamath: OpenAI can hit $1T by aggressively undercutting API costs
“For open AI, the way that it could become a trillion dollar company is actually by cutting the cost to such a low degree that nobody else can effectively compete with it. And then at that point, they can become a small, small, small tax. You'd rather just pay …”
Chamath Palihapitiya Mar 3, 2023 ▶ 23:54 E118: AI FOMO frenzy, macro update, Fox vs Dominion, US vs China & more with Brad Gerstner
Mar 31, 2023 neutral
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Sacks: Google will be a top four AI player but won't steamroll OpenAI
“Do I think that Google will be one of the top four players in AI? Absolutely. But this idea that is going to come and steamroll open AI, I'm not buying it.”
David Sacks Mar 31, 2023 ▶ 45:04 E122: Is AI the next great computing platform? ChatGPT vs. Google, containing AGI & RESTRICT Act
Mar 31, 2023 neutral
Assertion Supported
Sacks: OpenAI used GPT-4 internally for seven months before release
“Moreover, chat GPT four, which was just released a few weeks ago. We know that open AI had that. They were using it internally for seven months.”
David Sacks Mar 31, 2023 ▶ 35:34 E122: Is AI the next great computing platform? ChatGPT vs. Google, containing AGI & RESTRICT Act
Mar 31, 2023 negative
Assertion Supported
Sacks: Former employee claimed Google trained its AI using ChatGPT
“And the proof of that is there was just a lawsuit a couple of days ago, or at least a claim by a former employee of Google who quit because he said that they were using ChatGPT to train Their AI.”
David Sacks Mar 31, 2023 ▶ 34:58 E122: Is AI the next great computing platform? ChatGPT vs. Google, containing AGI & RESTRICT Act
Mar 31, 2023 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Sacks predicts OpenAI's lead will likely grow over the next year
“However, I actually think that OpenAI has demonstrated now with these platform features that it has a lead, a substantial lead, and I actually think that lead is likely to grow in the next year.”
David Sacks Mar 31, 2023 ▶ 26:45 E122: Is AI the next great computing platform? ChatGPT vs. Google, containing AGI & RESTRICT Act
Apr 28, 2023 positive
Opinion
Friedberg: Google has a massive structural AI advantage over Microsoft
“I think Google has such an incredible AI advantage over Microsoft. And, you know, Microsoft is almost solely dependent on open AI, this small startup company, and all of Bing chats is powered by it. And Microsoft hasn't built out the infrastructure, the team, …”
David Friedberg Apr 28, 2023 ▶ 5:17 E126: Big Tech blow-out, Powell’s recession warning, lab-grown meat, RFK Jr shakes up race & more
May 12, 2023 neutral
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Sacks: ChatGPT must integrate web browsing into its core functionality
“Clearly, ChatGPT is going to have to make the browsing, browsing plugin much snappier, and like much more part of the core functionality rather than something that's like an add-on.”
David Sacks May 12, 2023 ▶ 14:07 E128: Google enters AI wars, Druck’s warning, Trump crushes CNN & more
May 19, 2023 bullish
Prediction Partly held up
Calacanis: ChatGPT mobile app will 10x users and usage
“If this thing is an app form, that's going to 10 x the number of users, and it's going to 10 x the amount of usage.”
Jason Calacanis May 19, 2023 ▶ 58:18 E129: Sam Altman plays chess with regulators, AI's "nuclear" potential, big pharma bundling & more
May 19, 2023 negative
Assertion Supported
Calacanis: Sam Altman turned OpenAI closed by stopping open-source releases
“He made open AI, closed AI, By making it not open source.”
Jason Calacanis May 19, 2023 ▶ 21:35 E129: Sam Altman plays chess with regulators, AI's "nuclear" potential, big pharma bundling & more
May 19, 2023 negative
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Sacks: Altman's regulatory embrace ensures he will shape new AI agency
“And by basically buying into their narrative and agreeing to everything they want, which is to create all these new regulations and a new agency, I think that Sam is pretty much guaranteeing that he'll be one of the people who gets to help shape the new agency…”
David Sacks May 19, 2023 ▶ 11:08 E129: Sam Altman plays chess with regulators, AI's "nuclear" potential, big pharma bundling & more
Jun 16, 2023 neutral
Prediction Not checkable as stated
David Friedberg predicts GPT-4 training costs will drop 100x within 18 months
“If they spent four hundred million dollars in the last couple of years, you could probably assume that doing the same trading exercise could be done for five to ten million dollars, 18 months from now, to generate the same model.”
David Friedberg Jun 16, 2023 ▶ 1:35:25 E133: Market melt-up, IPO update, AI startups overheat, Reddit revolts & more with Brad Gerstner
Jul 1, 2023
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Sacks: Enterprises refuse to share data with OpenAI, prefer custom models
“I think enterprises want one at the level of the, call it the company intranet where employees could just ask it questions and, but they do not want to share their data with open AI. That's like very clear. They want to roll out their own models.”
David Sacks Jul 1, 2023 ▶ 1:07:57 E135: Wagner rebels, SCOTUS ends AA, AI M&A, startups gone bad, spacetime warps & more
Jul 1, 2023 neutral
Disclosure
Calacanis: AI startups trial 6-8 models and frequently reject OpenAI
“There are now, in the companies I'm talking to, they're trialing Friedberg, on average, six, seven, eight language models before they pick one, and they're not picking OpenAI every time.”
Jason Calacanis Jul 1, 2023 ▶ 58:56 E135: Wagner rebels, SCOTUS ends AA, AI M&A, startups gone bad, spacetime warps & more
Sep 13, 2023 negative
Opinion
Musk argues Microsoft exercises more control over OpenAI than OpenAI does
“Really what you have is, I think, at the end of the day, Microsoft having more control than OpenAI. They have access to all the source code. They have access to all the weights of the you know, GPT-IV and future versions.”
Elon Musk Sep 13, 2023 ▶ 40:23 Elon Musk: Ukraine, X, the creator economy, China, AI, & more | All-In Summit 2023
Sep 26, 2023 positive
Disclosure
Khosla funded OpenAI to counter Chinese AI efforts from Baidu
“And then there was an effort at Baidu. Right. And I was very worried the Chinese might win that. I'm hawkish on China. I have no trust there. And I love Graham Allison's book Destined for War. I'm a complete believer in that thesis. But I thought it'd be valua…”
Vinod Khosla Sep 26, 2023 ▶ 18:03 All-In Summit: In conversation with Vinod Khosla
Sep 26, 2023 positive
Opinion
Khosla: European non-profit structure with for-profit arms is effective
“It's a very good model to sustain and generate profit for a non-profit to scale. Like, I think the European model, some of these examples are really, really great. Ikea, Bosch, they have very large non-profit ownership, and I think that's a very good model to …”
Vinod Khosla Sep 26, 2023 ▶ 9:43 All-In Summit: In conversation with Vinod Khosla
Sep 26, 2023 bullish
Disclosure
Khosla: Initial OpenAI check was double his previous largest investment
“Our initial investment was twice the largest previous investment I'd made in four years in venture capital. Two X, the largest bet I'd ever placed initially in a company.”
Vinod Khosla Sep 26, 2023 ▶ 9:14 All-In Summit: In conversation with Vinod Khosla
Sep 29, 2023 neutral
Opinion
Sacks: Sam Altman effectively owns 100% of OpenAI via foundation structure
“Not only do I think that Sam really owns open AI through the fig leaf, this foundation, I think he owns a hundred percent of it in the event that the call option is struck.”
David Sacks Sep 29, 2023 ▶ 1:09:23 E147: TED goes woke, Canada's Nazi blunder, AI adds vision, plus: who owns OpenAI?
Nov 11, 2023 positive
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Sacks: Grok will keep OpenAI and ChatGPT honest about content filters
“Having something like rock around will at a minimum, keep open AI honest and keep, you know, keep chat GPT honest because If it's willing to give you truthful answers about things that you compare to the chat GPT answer, then we're going to know when these lik…”
David Sacks Nov 11, 2023 ▶ 1:43:12 Jared Kushner: Israel-Hamas War, paths forward, macro picture, AI
Dec 1, 2023 negative
Opinion
Sacks: OpenAI board was totally incompetent for firing Altman without explanation
“The board was totally incompetent. I mean, listen, if a board is going to take a drastic action of firing the founder CEO when everything is going great. I mean, cause everything's been going great at open AI. It's incumbent on them to explain their actions an…”
David Sacks Dec 1, 2023 ▶ 1:56:21 Tucker Carlson: State of America, leaving Fox News, Media Control, Politics, and more
Dec 1, 2023 positive
Prediction Held up
Chamath predicts OpenAI's $86 billion valuation will hold through recent turmoil
“So I think this valuation is going to hold. I think the secondary is going to happen.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Dec 1, 2023 ▶ 1:43:38 Tucker Carlson: State of America, leaving Fox News, Media Control, Politics, and more
Dec 16, 2023 neutral
Assertion Supported
Friedberg: OpenAI's Axel Springer deal is worth tens of millions of dollars
“It's a three year deal. They're paying tens of millions of dollars to Axel Springer to access their closed content and present it to the user.”
David Friedberg Dec 16, 2023 ▶ 27:58 E157: Epic legal win, OpenAI's news deal, FCC targets Elon, the limits of free speech & more
Dec 29, 2023 positive
Opinion
Chamath: Satya Nadella is the best CEO of 2023
“Satya Nadella, CEO of Microsoft. I just think the gross tonnage of market cap dollars he added in 2023, plus figuring out how to close Activision, plus retaining maximum optionality with OpenAI, is just a masterclass in heads down management.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Dec 29, 2023 ▶ 43:07 E159: The Bestie Awards! Recapping the best and worst of 2023
Dec 29, 2023 positive
Opinion
Friedberg: Sam Altman is the best CEO of 2023
“I give it to Sam Altman because I don't think any individual has generated more attention on a private company and its effect on the world and the future. Then Sam Altman and open AI.”
David Friedberg Dec 29, 2023 ▶ 43:59 E159: The Bestie Awards! Recapping the best and worst of 2023
Dec 29, 2023 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Sacks: OpenAI board debacle will put nail in coffin of EA movement
“I think the failure of that whole debacle will put the nail in the coffin of the EA movement.”
David Sacks Dec 29, 2023 ▶ 41:24 E159: The Bestie Awards! Recapping the best and worst of 2023
Jan 6, 2024 neutral
Prediction Open · timeframe Jan 2029
Calacanis: OpenAI will pay a nine-figure settlement to New York Times
“I think it's going to be a nine figure settlement for previous stuff, and then an ongoing licensing fee in order to have the New York Times in their training data.”
Jason Calacanis Jan 6, 2024 ▶ 26:38 E160: 2024 Predictions! Markets, tech, politics, and more
Jan 6, 2024 bearish
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Palihapitiya: OpenAI's enterprise value will fall in 2024
“I think the enterprise value of open AI goes down.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Jan 6, 2024 ▶ 42:10 E160: 2024 Predictions! Markets, tech, politics, and more
Feb 9, 2024 neutral
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Chamath predicts public internet AI models will hit parity within nine months
“So if you are using the open internet, Lama, Mistral, OpenAI, they're all getting to the same Quality code point, and they will be there within the next six to nine months.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Feb 9, 2024 ▶ 58:07 E165: Vision Pro: use or lose? Meta vs Snap, SaaS recovery, AI investing, rolling real estate crisis
Feb 9, 2024 positive
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Sachs: OpenAI is six months ahead of open-source models
“Most of the tests show that open AI is still ahead of the open source models, and I think even people in the open source movement will tell you that open AI is, call it six months ahead.”
David Sacks Feb 9, 2024 ▶ 50:02 E165: Vision Pro: use or lose? Meta vs Snap, SaaS recovery, AI investing, rolling real estate crisis
Feb 9, 2024 neutral
Assertion Supported
Calacanis: Founders Fund invested in OpenAI at $29B valuation, avoids other AI deals
“Founders fund bought into open AI. At a twenty nine billion dollar valuation, but aside from that investment, they're generally avoiding the AI deals.”
Jason Calacanis Feb 9, 2024 ▶ 41:47 E165: Vision Pro: use or lose? Meta vs Snap, SaaS recovery, AI investing, rolling real estate crisis
Feb 9, 2024 bullish
Insight
Sachs: OpenAI benefits from a classic developer network effect
“So you have a classic developer network effect where you've got open AI aggregating hundreds of millions of consumers because they perceive that chat GPT is the best. Then you've got developers wanting to reach that audience. So they build custom GPTs on the o…”
David Sacks Feb 9, 2024 ▶ 51:51 E165: Vision Pro: use or lose? Meta vs Snap, SaaS recovery, AI investing, rolling real estate crisis
Feb 9, 2024 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Sachs: OpenAI could win vast majority of consumer GPT market
“If open AI just maintains a little bit of a lead over open source, then it could compound. Yeah, it could basically win the vast, vast majority of the Call it consumer search or consumer GPT market.”
David Sacks Feb 9, 2024 ▶ 50:17 E165: Vision Pro: use or lose? Meta vs Snap, SaaS recovery, AI investing, rolling real estate crisis
Mar 8, 2024 neutral
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Friedberg: Courts will judge OpenAI on its ongoing charitable non-profit work
“So I think the test in the courts will likely end up being, look, it's totally reasonable to have a for-profit entity to fund a for-profit entity. Other nonprofits have done it, particularly when you need to attract billions of dollars of outside capital to ma…”
David Friedberg Mar 8, 2024 ▶ 12:26 E169: Elon sues OpenAI, Apple's decline, TikTok ban, Bitcoin $100K?, Science corner: Microplastics
Mar 8, 2024 neutral
Assertion Contradicted
Sacks: OpenAI defines AGI as software capable of replacing 80% of jobs
“They say it's something that can replace 80% of the jobs, but I think we all kind of know what it really is.”
David Sacks Mar 8, 2024 ▶ 39:10 E169: Elon sues OpenAI, Apple's decline, TikTok ban, Bitcoin $100K?, Science corner: Microplastics
Mar 8, 2024 neutral
Assertion Partly supported
Sacks: Elon Musk provided OpenAI's initial $40 million funding
“He put in the first forty million.”
David Sacks Mar 8, 2024 ▶ 31:54 E169: Elon sues OpenAI, Apple's decline, TikTok ban, Bitcoin $100K?, Science corner: Microplastics
Mar 8, 2024 neutral
Assertion Supported
Sacks: Vinod Khosla was the first VC investor in OpenAI
“You've got sort of a node defending open AI. He was the first VC investor in it.”
David Sacks Mar 8, 2024 ▶ 5:01 E169: Elon sues OpenAI, Apple's decline, TikTok ban, Bitcoin $100K?, Science corner: Microplastics
Mar 8, 2024 negative
Opinion
Calacanis: OpenAI model code is not too dangerous to open-source
“Sam is claiming or OpenAI is claiming it's too dangerous to show us the open source code. I call bull on that. Their code is not too dangerous for us to see. That's complete utter bull.”
Jason Calacanis Mar 8, 2024 ▶ 26:56 E169: Elon sues OpenAI, Apple's decline, TikTok ban, Bitcoin $100K?, Science corner: Microplastics
Mar 8, 2024 negative
Prediction Open · timeframe Mar 2029
Calacanis: OpenAI will face severe IRS scrutiny over its corporate structure
“And I think this is where OpenAI is going to get super tripped up. And I think the IRS is going to have a field day here.”
Jason Calacanis Mar 8, 2024 ▶ 14:51 E169: Elon sues OpenAI, Apple's decline, TikTok ban, Bitcoin $100K?, Science corner: Microplastics
Mar 8, 2024
Prediction Partly held up
Chamath: OpenAI's tax structure issues will be resolved in court
“And if OpenAI turns out to be this multi-hundred billion dollar behemoth, this will get figured out in court because there's just too much money at stake.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Mar 8, 2024 ▶ 8:37 E169: Elon sues OpenAI, Apple's decline, TikTok ban, Bitcoin $100K?, Science corner: Microplastics
Mar 8, 2024
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Friedberg: Most of OpenAI's IP was generated after forming its for-profit
“The majority of the IP that exists at OpenAI today Was generated after the for-profit was set up.”
David Friedberg Mar 8, 2024 ▶ 17:43 E169: Elon sues OpenAI, Apple's decline, TikTok ban, Bitcoin $100K?, Science corner: Microplastics
Mar 8, 2024
Assertion Supported
Chamath: Elon Musk was instrumental in recruiting Ilya Sutskever to OpenAI
“They used his name pretty aggressively to get more money, and he was very instrumental in getting some of the early critical hires, particularly Ilya, which has been, I think, well-documented, to leave Google, right?”
Chamath Palihapitiya Mar 8, 2024 ▶ 6:09 E169: Elon sues OpenAI, Apple's decline, TikTok ban, Bitcoin $100K?, Science corner: Microplastics
Mar 16, 2024 neutral
Assertion Open · timeframe Mar 2027
Sacks: OpenAI likely trained its Sora video model on YouTube data
“I think it's pretty clear that OpenAI trained Sora using, you know, available data on the internet, and that probably included YouTube.”
David Sacks Mar 16, 2024 ▶ 27:29 E170: Tech's Vibe Shift, TikTok ban debate, Vertical AI boom, Florida bans lab-grown meat & more
Apr 12, 2024
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Chamath: AI developers will train on everything if Google doesn't sue OpenAI
“So if this multi-trillion dollar company doesn't draw a line in the sand, then none of this matters and everybody's going to train on everything.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Apr 12, 2024 ▶ 51:21 E174: Inflation stays hot, AI disclosure bill, Drone warfare, defense startups & more
Apr 26, 2024 bullish
Opinion
Chamath: Meta and Google are no longer lagging behind OpenAI
“Because I think up until this point, you could have said that they and Google were sort of lagging behind OpenAI, but I don't think that's the case.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Apr 26, 2024 ▶ 7:59 Meta's scorched earth approach to AI, Tesla's future, TikTok bill, FTC bans noncompetes, wealth tax
May 10, 2024 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Altman: OpenAI will achieve major algorithmic efficiency gains
“Well, we'll, we'll make huge algorithmic gains for sure, and I don't want to discount that.”
Sam Altman May 10, 2024 ▶ 14:21 Sam Altman: Getting Fired (and Re-Hired) by OpenAI, Agents, AI Copyright issues
May 10, 2024 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Altman: AI development will shift toward continuous updates over major discrete releases
“I think I think that's like a better hint of what the world looks like, where it's not the like one, two, three, four, five, six, seven, but you just, you use an AI system, and the whole system just gets better and better fairly continuously. I think that's li…”
Sam Altman May 10, 2024 ▶ 3:14 Sam Altman: Getting Fired (and Re-Hired) by OpenAI, Agents, AI Copyright issues
May 10, 2024 neutral
Disclosure
Altman: Non-profit board rules led to initial decision against OpenAI equity
“The decision back then, the re, the original reason was just like the structure of our nonprofit. It was like there was something about Yeah, ok, this is like, nice from a motivations perspective, but mostly it was that our board needed to be a majority of dis…”
Sam Altman May 10, 2024 ▶ 59:33 Sam Altman: Getting Fired (and Re-Hired) by OpenAI, Agents, AI Copyright issues
May 10, 2024 positive
Opinion
Altman: Emmett Shear was great during OpenAI's interim CEO transition
“Emmett's great. And I have nothing but good things to say about Emmett in that whole process.”
Sam Altman May 10, 2024 ▶ 53:53 Sam Altman: Getting Fired (and Re-Hired) by OpenAI, Agents, AI Copyright issues
May 10, 2024 positive
Insight
Altman: Concentrating entire company on single AI models works best
“These systems are so complicated and concentrating bets are so important. Like one You know, at the time, before it was, like, obvious to do this, you have, like, DeepMind or whatever has all these different teams doing all these different things, and they're …”
Sam Altman May 10, 2024 ▶ 1:02:54 Sam Altman: Getting Fired (and Re-Hired) by OpenAI, Agents, AI Copyright issues
May 10, 2024 neutral
Disclosure
Altman: OpenAI aims to build a general intelligence layer, not just models
“What we're trying to do is not make the sort of smartest Set of weights that we can, but we're trying to make is like this useful intelligence layer for people to use. And a model is part of that.”
Sam Altman May 10, 2024 ▶ 8:51 Sam Altman: Getting Fired (and Re-Hired) by OpenAI, Agents, AI Copyright issues
May 10, 2024 neutral
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Altman: AI assistants will evolve as separate entities, not personal alter egos
“I personally like the separate entity approach better and think that's where we're going to head. And so in that sense, the thing is not you, but it's like a always available, always great, super capable assistant executive.”
Sam Altman May 10, 2024 ▶ 20:39 Sam Altman: Getting Fired (and Re-Hired) by OpenAI, Agents, AI Copyright issues
May 10, 2024
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Altman: AI copyright debates will shift from training data to inference time
“I think the conversation has been historically very caught up on training data, but it will increasingly become more about what happens at inference time as training data becomes less valuable”
Sam Altman May 10, 2024 ▶ 35:32 Sam Altman: Getting Fired (and Re-Hired) by OpenAI, Agents, AI Copyright issues
May 10, 2024
Disclosure
Altman: OpenAI decided against entering music AI due to copyright concerns
“We have currently made the decision not to do music, and partly because exactly these questions of where you draw the lines”
Sam Altman May 10, 2024 ▶ 38:27 Sam Altman: Getting Fired (and Re-Hired) by OpenAI, Agents, AI Copyright issues
May 10, 2024 neutral
Assertion Supported
Altman: OpenAI's Sora video model was built from scratch without a language model base
“But yeah, Sora, like, does not start with a language model. It's, that, that's a model that is, like, customized to do video and so, like, we're clearly not at that world yet.”
Sam Altman May 10, 2024 ▶ 32:11 Sam Altman: Getting Fired (and Re-Hired) by OpenAI, Agents, AI Copyright issues
May 10, 2024 positive
Opinion
Altman: Humanoid robots are superior because the physical world is designed for humans
“Same reason I'm like more excited about humanoid robots than sort of robots of like very other shapes. The world is very much designed for humans, and I think we should absolutely keep it that way.”
Sam Altman May 10, 2024 ▶ 23:28 Sam Altman: Getting Fired (and Re-Hired) by OpenAI, Agents, AI Copyright issues
May 10, 2024 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Palihapitiya: OpenAI will be one of four dominant AI companies
“I think that these guys are going to be one of the four major companies that matter in this whole space.”
Chamath Palihapitiya May 10, 2024 ▶ 1:05:47 Sam Altman: Getting Fired (and Re-Hired) by OpenAI, Agents, AI Copyright issues
May 10, 2024 neutral
Disclosure
Altman: Device and chip ventures belong to OpenAI, not him personally
“So the things like, you know, device companies, or if we were doing some chip fab company, it's like, those are not Sam Project. Those would be like opening. I would get that equity.”
Sam Altman May 10, 2024 ▶ 1:01:26 Sam Altman: Getting Fired (and Re-Hired) by OpenAI, Agents, AI Copyright issues
May 17, 2024
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Calacanis: OpenAI may make basic AI free and charge for multiplayer
“And it might be that OpenAI sacks on a strategic level is going to make all this free or close to free and maybe just charge for multiplayer version. That seems to be where it's heading.”
Jason Calacanis May 17, 2024 ▶ 22:48 GPT-4o launches, Glue demo, Ohalo breakthrough, Druck's Argentina bet, did Google kill Perplexity?
May 17, 2024 negative
Assertion Supported
Calacanis: Duolingo stock took a hit during OpenAI's GPT-4o demo
“I think Doolingo stock took a hit during that.”
Jason Calacanis May 17, 2024 ▶ 15:00 GPT-4o launches, Glue demo, Ohalo breakthrough, Druck's Argentina bet, did Google kill Perplexity?
May 17, 2024 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Sacks: OpenAI will pivot toward B2B models over time
“So I suspect they're going to move in more of a B to B direction over time because that's where the real money is.”
David Sacks May 17, 2024 ▶ 23:51 GPT-4o launches, Glue demo, Ohalo breakthrough, Druck's Argentina bet, did Google kill Perplexity?
May 24, 2024 neutral
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Chamath: Top AGI labs will operate like intelligence agencies within 5-10 years
“I suspect that it's going to look more like A three letter agency in terms of security and protocols in the next five or 10 years, then it is going to look like the Googleplex.”
Chamath Palihapitiya May 24, 2024 ▶ 19:41 Scarlett Johansson vs OpenAI, Nvidia's trillion-dollar problem, a vibecession, plastic in our balls
May 24, 2024 negative
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Sachs: OpenAI's equity clawback clause was an intentional business decision, not an accident
“This didn't happen as an accident. Somebody made a strategic business decision to do this because they thought it'd be in the company's interest.”
David Sacks May 24, 2024 ▶ 17:46 Scarlett Johansson vs OpenAI, Nvidia's trillion-dollar problem, a vibecession, plastic in our balls
May 24, 2024 neutral
Prediction Held up
Calacanis: Scarlett Johansson's dispute with OpenAI will settle out of court
“If you go look at all the fair use cases, they almost never go to the mat. And so this one will just be settled.”
Jason Calacanis May 24, 2024 ▶ 21:46 Scarlett Johansson vs OpenAI, Nvidia's trillion-dollar problem, a vibecession, plastic in our balls
Jun 14, 2024 negative
Opinion
Palihapitiya claims Apple weaponizes privacy selectively against Meta while favoring OpenAI
“Apple really cares about privacy when they're trying to hurt a company they don't like, i.e. Meta. And they're willing to figure out a way to work around it when it's a company that they clearly support, OpenAI.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Jun 14, 2024 ▶ 49:53 Elon gets paid, Apple's AI pop, OpenAI revenue rip, Macro debate & Inside Trump Fundraiser
Jun 29, 2024 neutral
Insight
Chamath: Early market leaders in tech shifts rarely capture long-term value
“Whoever wins in the first inning usually isn't the one that's winning by the ninth inning, and so I would encourage anybody that's winning right now to monetize, get secondaries, take money off the table as fast as possible, because the future is unknown, and …”
Chamath Palihapitiya Jun 29, 2024 ▶ 43:43 Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
Jun 29, 2024 neutral
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Chamath: Likelihood of IRS auditing OpenAI is basically zero
“Then the likelihood that an IRS agent all of a sudden decides to audit OpenAI is basically zero.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Jun 29, 2024 ▶ 52:01 Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
Jun 29, 2024 negative
Insight
Sacks: Startups should use standard C-Corps instead of innovating on structure
“It's not a good idea for startups to innovate on structure. Using a tried and true C-Corp Is the way to go.”
David Sacks Jun 29, 2024 ▶ 45:16 Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
Aug 30, 2024
Disclosure
Reid Hoffman donated $10M to OpenAI non-profit without receiving equity
“I, by the way, I put in ten million at the same time, and I don't have any shares from those ten million.”
Reid Hoffman Aug 30, 2024 ▶ 24:25 In conversation with Reid Hoffman & Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Aug 30, 2024 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Reid Hoffman predicts AI scaling asymptotes will not occur until GPT-6
“My guess is the soonest will be GPT-Six and it might not even, it may even be after that, and that's part of what the bet that OpenAI and Anthropic and the hyperscalers are all making, is that that, that return to scale”
Reid Hoffman Aug 30, 2024 ▶ 16:23 In conversation with Reid Hoffman & Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Aug 30, 2024
Assertion Not publicly verifiable
Hoffman: Sam Altman offered Elon Musk full participation in OpenAI's commercial round
“I know Sam offered him as much of the investment round as he wanted. Right? Like, he could have done the whole thing. He could have let it.”
Reid Hoffman Aug 30, 2024 ▶ 23:10 In conversation with Reid Hoffman & Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Aug 30, 2024 neutral
Disclosure
Hoffman: OpenAI was founded for open access, not open source
“From the very founding of OpenAI, I was never claiming it was gonna be open source. I was claiming it was gonna be once safety, open access and not differential or controlling access for that”
Reid Hoffman Aug 30, 2024 ▶ 15:06 In conversation with Reid Hoffman & Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Aug 30, 2024 negative
Opinion
Elon Musk's lawsuits against OpenAI are driven by sour grapes
“Frankly, I think probably the most charitable thing to say is sour grapes because, you know, for example, I know Sam offered him as much of the investment round as he wanted. Right? Like, he could have done the whole thing. He could have let it. You know, it w…”
Reid Hoffman Aug 30, 2024 ▶ 23:10 In conversation with Reid Hoffman & Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Sep 20, 2024 bullish
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Chamath predicts OpenAI will release the full o1 model within months
“And then they'll have the actual O-one production build probably in the next couple of months, which will be probably pretty spectacular.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Sep 20, 2024 ▶ 24:49 Big Fed rate cuts, AI killing call centers, $50B govt boondoggle, VC's rough years, Trump/Kamala
Sep 27, 2024 bullish
Opinion
Calacanis: OpenAI's o1 model is a year ahead of competitors
“And the previous version I felt was three to six months ahead of competitors. This is a year ahead of competitors.”
Jason Calacanis Sep 27, 2024 ▶ 17:53 OpenAI's $150B conversion, Meta's AR glasses, Blue-collar boom, Risk of nuclear war
Sep 27, 2024
Assertion Partly supported
Calacanis: OpenAI hit $150B valuation, granting Sam Altman $10B in equity
“Congratulations on the 150 Billion dollar valuation and you're seven percent. Sam now just cashed in ten billion dollars apparently.”
Jason Calacanis Sep 27, 2024 ▶ 2:18 OpenAI's $150B conversion, Meta's AR glasses, Blue-collar boom, Risk of nuclear war
Sep 27, 2024 negative
Opinion
Sacks: OpenAI converting to for-profit without equity for Elon Musk is ridiculous
“You're making it into a for-profit. You're giving everyone shares, but the guy who puts in the original seed capital doesn't get anything. That's ridiculous.”
David Sacks Sep 27, 2024 ▶ 47:11 OpenAI's $150B conversion, Meta's AR glasses, Blue-collar boom, Risk of nuclear war
Sep 27, 2024 neutral
Assertion Supported
Altman: I have no equity in OpenAI, paid only for health insurance
“I'm paid enough for health insurance. I have no equity in OpenAI.”
Sam Altman Sep 27, 2024 ▶ 41:22 OpenAI's $150B conversion, Meta's AR glasses, Blue-collar boom, Risk of nuclear war
Sep 27, 2024 bearish
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Chamath: OpenAI's executive churn is unprecedented for a high-growth tech company
“I have not in my time in Silicon Valley ever seen a company that's supposedly on such a straight line to a rocket ship have so much high level churn.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Sep 27, 2024 ▶ 15:42 OpenAI's $150B conversion, Meta's AR glasses, Blue-collar boom, Risk of nuclear war
Sep 27, 2024 neutral
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Chamath: Many companies will copy OpenAI's nonprofit conversion if legal
“I think the first is that there's going to be a lot of people that are looking at the architecture of this conversion, because if it passes muster, everybody should do it.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Sep 27, 2024 ▶ 42:46 OpenAI's $150B conversion, Meta's AR glasses, Blue-collar boom, Risk of nuclear war
Sep 27, 2024
Assertion Partly supported
Sacks: OpenAI must remove profit cap and convert to C Corp for round
“They have to remove the profit cap and do the C Corp.”
David Sacks Sep 27, 2024 ▶ 3:04 OpenAI's $150B conversion, Meta's AR glasses, Blue-collar boom, Risk of nuclear war
Oct 3, 2024 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Cuban: Nothing guarantees OpenAI will win the AI market
“There is no, you know, there's nothing that says that open AI is going to win. Nothing at all.”
Mark Cuban Oct 3, 2024 ▶ 2:01:24 Mark Cuban: Love/Hate Relationship with Trump, Why He's Backing Kamala Harris
Oct 3, 2024 negative
Opinion
Cuban: OpenAI restricting investor deals reflects fear rather than strength
“And to me, it tells me they're more scared than anything by trying to restrict what people are doing.”
Mark Cuban Oct 3, 2024 ▶ 2:01:35 Mark Cuban: Love/Hate Relationship with Trump, Why He's Backing Kamala Harris
Dec 20, 2024 positive
Opinion
Calacanis: Google Gemini has reached parity with and exceeded OpenAI
“Gemini was beating that hands down for me. And I think he conceded that with their free model and their 20 dollar model, if we just gave it decent prompts, I think Google now has reached parity and they have an app out. Freeburg, what are your thoughts? Becaus…”
Jason Calacanis Dec 20, 2024 ▶ 1:28:14 DOGE kills its first bill, Zuck vs OpenAI, Google's AI comeback
Dec 20, 2024 neutral
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Palihapitiya: 70% of OpenAI usage comes from consumer users
“70% of the usage of open AI is consumer.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Dec 20, 2024 ▶ 1:28:50 DOGE kills its first bill, Zuck vs OpenAI, Google's AI comeback
Dec 20, 2024 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Calacanis: OpenAI will drop to 3rd, 4th, or 5th AI player within three years
“I think we've hit peak open AI in the market. I think they're going to be the number three or four player. I think Gemini, Meta and XAI are going to lead them. If we're sitting here in three years, I think OpenAI is number three, four or five, not one or two.”
Jason Calacanis Dec 20, 2024 ▶ 1:34:16 DOGE kills its first bill, Zuck vs OpenAI, Google's AI comeback
Dec 25, 2024 negative
Opinion
Chamath calls OpenAI the biggest tech disappointment of 2024
“I think the biggest flop, not, I don't want to say it's a flop, but I think the biggest disappointment of this year, to me, was OpenAI.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Dec 25, 2024 ▶ 1:02:43 The All-In Holiday Spectacular
Jan 4, 2025 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Calacanis predicts OpenAI will lose its lead and become fourth-ranked AI player
“My most contrarian belief was OpenAI loses its lead, loses its nonprofit to for-profit transition and becomes the number four player in AI. The total collapse of OpenAI is my most contrarian prediction for .”
Jason Calacanis Jan 4, 2025 ▶ 1:11:34 2025 Predictions: Tech, Business, Media, Politics!
Jan 4, 2025 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Calacanis predicts OpenAI will peak at its $157 billion valuation
“But I think the one that is the most overpriced of all of this, and I think is going to see their peak valuation is open AI.”
Jason Calacanis Jan 4, 2025 ▶ 44:29 2025 Predictions: Tech, Business, Media, Politics!
Jan 4, 2025 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Calacanis warns OpenAI faces real risk of failing its for-profit conversion
“And I do think that there is a non-zero chance they could lose their process and these court cases of transferring a hundred fifty seven billion dollars in value from a nonprofit into a for-profit. I think that whole thing could blow up.”
Jason Calacanis Jan 4, 2025 ▶ 45:30 2025 Predictions: Tech, Business, Media, Politics!
Jan 25, 2025 positive
Assertion Partly supported
Chamath: DeepSeek's million-dollar model matched OpenAI's billion-dollar o1 model
“We saw a model that got released by the Chinese under, by the way, a totally M you know, open source MIT license that you can run on a laptop. And it turned out to be as good as open AI's O one model. So a couple of versions old, but the point is that This mod…”
Chamath Palihapitiya Jan 25, 2025 ▶ 1:19:18 Trump's First Week: Inauguration Recap, Executive Actions, TikTok, Stargate + Sacks is Back!
Jan 31, 2025 neutral
Assertion Not checkable as stated
David Sacks claims US frontier AI training runs cost tens of millions
“What the founder of Anthropic said, and what I think Brad has said, being an investor in OpenAI and having talked to them, is that the final training run cost was more in the tens of millions of dollars about nine or 10 months ago.”
David Sacks Jan 31, 2025 ▶ 22:57 DeepSeek Panic, US vs China, OpenAI $40B?, and Doge Delivers with Travis Kalanick and David Sacks
Jan 31, 2025 neutral
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Chamath Palihapitiya warns OpenAI's consumer strategy guarantees a collision with Meta
“Which puts them on a collision course with Meta. It's the only company that could really impact that because the only company right now that has Billions of eyeballs of DAUs per day.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Jan 31, 2025 ▶ 30:14 DeepSeek Panic, US vs China, OpenAI $40B?, and Doge Delivers with Travis Kalanick and David Sacks
Jan 31, 2025 neutral
Assertion Supported
David Sacks argues DeepSeek-R1 only matches a four-month-old OpenAI model
“The R-one model is, is basically comparable to O-one, which OpenAI released four months ago and was training on internally, call it nine or 10 months ago. So OpenAI is on O-three now. Its frontier is ahead of where R-one is.”
David Sacks Jan 31, 2025 ▶ 47:25 DeepSeek Panic, US vs China, OpenAI $40B?, and Doge Delivers with Travis Kalanick and David Sacks
Jan 31, 2025 negative
Opinion
Jason Calacanis claims OpenAI got caught red-handed stealing everyone's content
“And then there's a bunch of debate on whether they stole, which is kind of rich coming from open AI, which got caught red-handed stealing everybody else's content.”
Jason Calacanis Jan 31, 2025 ▶ 16:52 DeepSeek Panic, US vs China, OpenAI $40B?, and Doge Delivers with Travis Kalanick and David Sacks
Feb 2, 2025 neutral
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Sacks: US AI models' final training runs cost tens of millions
“The final training run cost was more in the tens of millions of dollars about nine or 10 months ago. And so, you know, it's not six million versus a billion, okay?”
David Sacks Feb 2, 2025 ▶ 5:35 AI Czar David Sacks Explains the DeepSeek Freak Out
Mar 1, 2025 neutral
Assertion Supported
Chamath: Figure AI canceled its OpenAI deal to build its own model
“And what he did was he had a deal with open AI, which he pretty publicly canceled a few weeks ago, and he announced his own model.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Mar 1, 2025 ▶ 15:21 Epstein Files Flop, State of the Market, Autonomous Robots, Trump's Gold Card, Friedberg on Jeopardy
Mar 8, 2025 negative
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Chamath: OpenAI's GPT-4.5 release was not well received
“OpenAI dropped. GPT four, five, and I think it was not really that well received.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Mar 8, 2025 ▶ 6:52 Tariffs, Trump's Economic Endgame, Market Chaos, Bitcoin Reserve, CoreWeave IPO
Mar 29, 2025 neutral
Assertion Supported
Baker: OpenAI explored pricing initial agents at $2K to $20K monthly
“OpenAI was talking about pricing their first agents at 2000 to 20,000 dollars a month.”
Gavin Baker Mar 29, 2025 ▶ 21:25 The AI Cold War, Signalgate, CoreWeave IPO, Tariff Endgames, El Salvador Deportations
May 3, 2025
Assertion Open · timeframe May 2028
Calacanis: OpenAI plans to charge $2k-$20k monthly for AI agents
“Open AI is planning to charge between two and 20 K a month for different levels of AI agencies would be basically cron jobs.”
Jason Calacanis May 3, 2025 ▶ 1:04:15 Trump's First 100 Days, Tariffs Impact Trade, AI Agents, Amazon Backs Down
May 24, 2025 neutral
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Sacks: Jony Ive will either double OpenAI's value or add zero value
“I don't think it's gonna be one or two percent better. I think it's gonna be either zero or a doubling of the company's value, something like that, right? Like either he develops an iPhone like amazing hit product. No one's agreed for some new consumer device …”
David Sacks May 24, 2025 ▶ 55:44 Bond crisis looming? GOP abandons DOGE, Google disrupts Search with AI, OpenAI buys Jony Ive's IO
May 24, 2025 positive
Assertion Partly supported
Chamath: OpenAI and G42 partner on 5-gigawatt Abu Dhabi AI cluster
“It just hit the wire that OpenAI is partnering on a five gigawatt data center cluster in Abu Dhabi with G-forty-two.”
Chamath Palihapitiya May 24, 2025 ▶ 1:08:21 Bond crisis looming? GOP abandons DOGE, Google disrupts Search with AI, OpenAI buys Jony Ive's IO
May 24, 2025 neutral
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Chamath: OpenAI funding rounds prior to $300B round included put options
“All of the rounds before the three hundred billion dollar round from SoftBank had essentially a feature where there was like a hard rate of return and the ability to put the stock back if they weren't able to do the conversion To a for-profit company, et ceter…”
Chamath Palihapitiya May 24, 2025 ▶ 54:43 Bond crisis looming? GOP abandons DOGE, Google disrupts Search with AI, OpenAI buys Jony Ive's IO
May 24, 2025 bullish
Prediction Open · timeframe May 2030
Sacks: OpenAI will release a hardware device like an AI phone or pendant
“On a serious note, what I would say is maybe what this deal indicates is, I mean, obviously is that open AI is going to do something with hardware. It could be a new kind of phone that is AI first, as opposed to the wall of applications, or maybe it's like som…”
David Sacks May 24, 2025 ▶ 53:46 Bond crisis looming? GOP abandons DOGE, Google disrupts Search with AI, OpenAI buys Jony Ive's IO
May 24, 2025 neutral
Assertion Supported
Calacanis: OpenAI bought Jony Ive's IO for $6.5B in stock
“They bought it for 6.5 billion in an all stock deal.”
Jason Calacanis May 24, 2025 ▶ 46:58 Bond crisis looming? GOP abandons DOGE, Google disrupts Search with AI, OpenAI buys Jony Ive's IO
Jun 21, 2025 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Lafont: Apple stock would rise if it acquired OpenAI for $500B
“I actually think it would go up, not down, even if they did something like that.”
Thomas Laffont Jun 21, 2025 ▶ 46:53 IPOs and SPACs are Back, Mag 7 Showdown, Zuck on Tilt, Apple's Fumble, GENIUS Act passes Senate
Jun 21, 2025 bullish
Assertion Partly supported
Lafont: Apple's AirPod business revenue is triple OpenAI's total revenue
“To that point it's interesting to think that the AirPod business at Apple is three X opening eyes revenue based today.”
Thomas Laffont Jun 21, 2025 ▶ 49:37 IPOs and SPACs are Back, Mag 7 Showdown, Zuck on Tilt, Apple's Fumble, GENIUS Act passes Senate
Jun 21, 2025 negative
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Altman: Meta offered OpenAI staff $100M signing bonuses, but none left
“They started making these like giant offers to you know, a lot of people on our team you know, like a hundred million dollar signing bonuses, more than that comp per year. And I'm actually, it is crazy. I'm really happy that at least so far none of our best pe…”
Sam Altman Jun 21, 2025 ▶ 11:03 IPOs and SPACs are Back, Mag 7 Showdown, Zuck on Tilt, Apple's Fumble, GENIUS Act passes Senate
Jun 21, 2025 negative
Opinion
Chamath: Apple is missing out on top AI and machine learning talent
“I have to think that Apple is not getting any of those people. So by the time you end up at Apple, It's just a different caliber of person.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Jun 21, 2025 ▶ 44:23 IPOs and SPACs are Back, Mag 7 Showdown, Zuck on Tilt, Apple's Fumble, GENIUS Act passes Senate
Jun 28, 2025
Disclosure
Chamath Palihapitiya discloses OpenAI licensing deal with Beast for pre-training
“We did a licensing deal with OpenAI, we meaning, you know, beast. They paid us and they're using it for pre-training.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Jun 28, 2025 ▶ 1:45:01 12 Day War, Socialism Wins in NYC, Stocks All-Time High, AI Copyright, Science Corner
Jul 4, 2025 negative
Insight
Friedberg: A state patchwork of AI regulations makes national service practically impossible
“Having a patchwork of regulations on, for example, model development or telling software companies what software they can deploy would make it practically impossible for internet service providers like a Google or an OpenAI to service Customers across state bo…”
David Friedberg Jul 4, 2025 ▶ 5:57 Big Beautiful Bill, Elon/Trump, Dollar Down Big, Harvard's Money Problems, Figma IPO
Jul 4, 2025 bullish
Assertion Supported
Chamath: OpenAI leaks show $13B revenue in 2025, $125B by 2029
“OpenAI, their revenue numbers just leaked. They're forecasting thirteen billion in 2520 25, spiking to a hundred and twenty five billion in 2029.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Jul 4, 2025 ▶ 1:11:59 Big Beautiful Bill, Elon/Trump, Dollar Down Big, Harvard's Money Problems, Figma IPO
Jul 11, 2025 negative
Opinion
Calacanis: Sam Altman corrupted OpenAI's mission and betrayed Elon Musk
“Individuals, which by the way, was what he backed before Sam Altman corrupted the original missionary basis of opening. I made a closed AI in a, you know, this is nothing derogatory towards him, but he did hoodwink and stab Elon in the back.”
Jason Calacanis Jul 11, 2025 ▶ 42:57 Grok 4 Wows, The Bitter Lesson, Third Party, AI Browsers, SCOTUS backs POTUS on RIFs
Jul 11, 2025 neutral
Insight
Rabois: OpenAI must ship a hardware device to maintain product advantage
“The way to stay ahead of the product level is shipping a device. They've got to ship the device.”
Keith Rabois Jul 11, 2025 ▶ 45:21 Grok 4 Wows, The Bitter Lesson, Third Party, AI Browsers, SCOTUS backs POTUS on RIFs
Jul 19, 2025 bullish
Assertion Supported
Baker: Grok 4 performed twice as well as competitors on ARC-AGI II
“And so RKGI-II, it has not seen the questions before, and it did roughly twice as good as, you know, the state-of-the-art Google Open AI and anthropic models.”
Gavin Baker Jul 19, 2025 ▶ 20:25 Trump vs Powell, Solving the Debt Crisis, The $10T AGI Prize, GENIUS Act Becomes Law
Jul 23, 2025
Assertion Partly supported
Buchheit: Y Combinator started OpenAI in 2015
“And so actually a lot of people don't know, we started OpenAI at Y Combinator 10 years ago in 2015.”
Paul Buchheit Jul 23, 2025 ▶ 1:09:44 Winning the AI Race Part 1: Michael Kratsios, Kelly Loeffler, Shyam Sankar, Chris Power
Jul 23, 2025 neutral
Assertion Partly supported
Huang: DeepSeek, OpenAI, and DeepMind started with around 150 people
“DeepSeek's a 150 people. Boonshot's a 150 people. And so, I mean, look at the original OpenAI was about a 150 people. DeepMind, you know, and they're all about that size.”
Jensen Huang Jul 23, 2025 ▶ 1:02:56 Winning the AI Race Part 3: Jensen Huang, Lisa Su, James Litinsky, Chase Lochmiller
Aug 1, 2025 negative
Assertion Supported
Altman: OpenAI could be legally forced to disclose ChatGPT user logs
“We haven't figured that out yet for when you talk to ChatGPT. So if you go talk to ChatGPT about your most sensitive stuff, and then there's, like, a lawsuit or whatever, like, we could be required to produce that, and I think that's very screwed up.”
Sam Altman Aug 1, 2025 ▶ 57:28 Trump AI Speech & Action Plan, DC Summit Recap, Hot GDP Print, Trade Deals, Altman Warns No Privacy
Aug 1, 2025 neutral
Disclosure
Palihapitiya: The Daily Beast signed an AI licensing deal with OpenAI
“At beast, we did a licensing deal of our content to allow open AI to learn.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Aug 1, 2025 ▶ 46:12 Trump AI Speech & Action Plan, DC Summit Recap, Hot GDP Print, Trade Deals, Altman Warns No Privacy
Aug 9, 2025 positive
Assertion Supported
Baker: Grok 4 scored 44.4% on Humanity's Last Exam versus GPT-5's 42%
“GroK IV when it came out and it is improved. Since, since its release roughly a month ago, was at 44.4%, and GPT five was at 42.”
Gavin Baker Aug 9, 2025 ▶ 11:53 OpenAI's GPT-5 Flop, AI's Unlimited Market, China's Big Advantage, Rise in Socialism, Housing Crisis
Aug 9, 2025 negative
Assertion Supported
Baker: OpenAI's ChatGPT-5 router was broken for its first 16 hours
“I mean, in all fairness to OpenAI, the router that kind of auto selects the right model was apparently broken for the first kind of. 12 or 16 hours of the model's release. It wasn't working.”
Gavin Baker Aug 9, 2025 ▶ 15:54 OpenAI's GPT-5 Flop, AI's Unlimited Market, China's Big Advantage, Rise in Socialism, Housing Crisis
Aug 9, 2025 negative
Assertion Supported
Calacanis: GPT-5's launch featured flat charts, miscalculations, and typos
“A little bit of a messy presentation for GPT-Five yesterday. This wasn't like your classic Steve Jobs keynote. The charts were flat and wrong, miscalculations, typos, all kinds of stuff, but the model did top some leaderboards in fairness in the chat bot arena…”
Jason Calacanis Aug 9, 2025 ▶ 7:52 OpenAI's GPT-5 Flop, AI's Unlimited Market, China's Big Advantage, Rise in Socialism, Housing Crisis
Aug 9, 2025 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Friedberg: ChatGPT-5's UX upgrade will give OpenAI a real advantage
“So I think from a product experience point of view, this was actually a pretty big upgrade for chat GPT. And it'll give them a real advantage as people start to access it.”
David Friedberg Aug 9, 2025 ▶ 15:26 OpenAI's GPT-5 Flop, AI's Unlimited Market, China's Big Advantage, Rise in Socialism, Housing Crisis
Aug 9, 2025 negative
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Baker: GPT-5 is OpenAI's first frontier model that isn't decisively best
“This is the first time that, you know, open AI has released a new model that was not decisively the best.”
Gavin Baker Aug 9, 2025 ▶ 10:42 OpenAI's GPT-5 Flop, AI's Unlimited Market, China's Big Advantage, Rise in Socialism, Housing Crisis
Aug 15, 2025 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Sacks says OpenAI could reach a $1T valuation in a couple of years
“They could be a trillion dollar company in a couple of years if the trend continues.”
David Sacks Aug 15, 2025 ▶ 1:26:03 AI Psychosis, America's Broken Social Fabric, Trump Takes Over DC Police, Is VC Broken?
Aug 15, 2025 neutral
Assertion Supported
Calacanis: OpenAI updated ChatGPT to limit relationship advice and prompt breaks
“OpenAI saw this becoming an issue and they made some healthy use updates to ChatGPT. It's no longer going to tell you whether or not To break up with your boyfriend, to leave your spouse, it prompts you to take a break after long sessions.”
Jason Calacanis Aug 15, 2025 ▶ 5:26 AI Psychosis, America's Broken Social Fabric, Trump Takes Over DC Police, Is VC Broken?
Aug 22, 2025 bullish
Prediction Open · timeframe Aug 2029
Chamath: OpenAI could reach a $1.5T valuation within four years
“I would probably put that at like, 500 Dow to be conservative. It's probably doubling every two years. So 500 goes to a 1,000,000,001, billion goes to two in four years, and at two billion Dow, they generate a 1th of Facebook's revenue, just to be very conserv…”
Chamath Palihapitiya Aug 22, 2025 ▶ 35:10 AI Bubble Pops, Zuck Freezes Hiring, Newsom’s 2028 Surge, Russia/Ukraine Endgame
Aug 29, 2025 positive
Assertion Supported
Friedberg: OpenAI and Retro Biosciences created 50x more effective rejuvenation proteins
“They actually got these new proteins to be 50 times more effective than the OSK and M proteins and basically rejuvenation or cellular Reset.”
David Friedberg Aug 29, 2025 ▶ 1:16:32 Trump Takes On the Fed, US-Intel Deal, Why Bankruptcies Are Up, OpenAI's Longevity Breakthrough
Sep 7, 2025 positive
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Sacks estimates OpenAI currently captures roughly 90% of consumer AI revenue
“If you look at AI revenue, I think something like 90% of it is going to open AI.”
David Sacks Sep 7, 2025 ▶ 1:02:16 Inside the White House Tech Dinner, Weak Jobs Report, Tariffs Court Challenge, Google Wins Antitrust
Sep 15, 2025 positive
Assertion Supported
Tenev: Robinhood was first to tokenize OpenAI and SpaceX shares
“We were actually, I think, the first to tokenize OpenAI and SpaceX, and we made that available to our retail customers in Europe in the form of a giveaway”
Vlad Tenev Sep 15, 2025 ▶ 4:48 Robinhood CEO Vlad Tenev on tokenizing stocks, expanding access to private shares, fintech's future
Sep 15, 2025 neutral
Disclosure
Tenev: Robinhood cannot currently offer synthetic contracts on private stock
“We can't do that currently and OpenAI in particular is a tricky one,”
Vlad Tenev Sep 15, 2025 ▶ 15:51 Robinhood CEO Vlad Tenev on tokenizing stocks, expanding access to private shares, fintech's future
Oct 3, 2025 positive
Disclosure
Palihapitiya redirected heavy AI workloads from OpenAI to Kimi K-II
“We are a top 20 consumer of Bedrock. So Let me tell you what it looks like on the ground. We redirected a ton of our workloads to Kimi K-II on Grok. Because it was really way more performant and frankly, just a ton cheaper than OpenAI and Anthropic.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Oct 3, 2025 ▶ 46:53 Biggest LBO Ever, SPAC 2.0, Open Source AI Models, State AI Regulation Frenzy
Oct 10, 2025 bullish
Prediction Open · timeframe Oct 2028
Gerstner: AMD could capture $150B incremental revenue from OpenAI deal
“If it works, she's going to get a hundred and fifty billion of incremental revenue just from open AI, right? For building out five gigawatts.”
Brad Gerstner Oct 10, 2025 ▶ 47:35 Trump Brokers Gaza Peace Deal, National Guard in Chicago, OpenAI/AMD, AI Roundtripping, Gold Rally
Oct 10, 2025 neutral
Assertion Supported
Jason Calacanis: AMD granted OpenAI warrants for 160M shares
“AMD granted OpenAI warrants And that's interesting for up to a hundred and sixty million shares or 10% of the companies.”
Jason Calacanis Oct 10, 2025 ▶ 44:31 Trump Brokers Gaza Peace Deal, National Guard in Chicago, OpenAI/AMD, AI Roundtripping, Gold Rally
Oct 10, 2025 positive
Assertion Supported
Calacanis claims OpenAI committed to 6 gigawatts of AMD GPUs
“OpenAI committed to purchasing six gigawatts worth of AMD's next-gen GPUs.”
Jason Calacanis Oct 10, 2025 ▶ 44:25 Trump Brokers Gaza Peace Deal, National Guard in Chicago, OpenAI/AMD, AI Roundtripping, Gold Rally
Oct 10, 2025 bullish
Opinion
Calacanis: OpenAI will effectively receive AMD GPUs for free
“And with that massive increase in their stock price, Brad, I think this means that OpenAI is going to get a lot of GPUs essentially for free.”
Jason Calacanis Oct 10, 2025 ▶ 44:40 Trump Brokers Gaza Peace Deal, National Guard in Chicago, OpenAI/AMD, AI Roundtripping, Gold Rally
Oct 10, 2025 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Gerstner predicts OpenAI will exit 2025 with $20B revenue run rate
“They'll exit this year at over twenty billion run rate.”
Brad Gerstner Oct 10, 2025 ▶ 1:10:32 Trump Brokers Gaza Peace Deal, National Guard in Chicago, OpenAI/AMD, AI Roundtripping, Gold Rally
Oct 31, 2025 negative
Assertion Supported
Musk says OpenAI incorporation documents barred officers from financial gain
“The incorporation documents explicitly say that no officer or founding member will be, will benefit financially from OpenAI.”
Elon Musk Oct 31, 2025 ▶ 48:36 Elon Musk: OpenAI Betrayal, His Future at Tesla, and the Next Big Thing — Grokipedia
Oct 31, 2025
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Musk predicts OpenAI lawsuit will go to jury trial in February or March
“Yes, I believe that will go to jury trial in February or March.”
Elon Musk Oct 31, 2025 ▶ 48:12 Elon Musk: OpenAI Betrayal, His Future at Tesla, and the Next Big Thing — Grokipedia
Oct 31, 2025 negative
Opinion
Musk claims OpenAI released broken open-source models as a fig leaf
“They basically, they open sourced a broken, non-working version of their models as a fig leaf.”
Elon Musk Oct 31, 2025 ▶ 51:13 Elon Musk: OpenAI Betrayal, His Future at Tesla, and the Next Big Thing — Grokipedia
Oct 31, 2025 neutral
Disclosure
Musk: OpenAI was created as a counterweight to Google's AI monopoly
“The reason I wanted to create OpenAI was to serve as a counterweight to Google, because at the time Google was sort of, essentially had unilateral power in AI, that all the AI, essentially.”
Elon Musk Oct 31, 2025 ▶ 52:43 Elon Musk: OpenAI Betrayal, His Future at Tesla, and the Next Big Thing — Grokipedia
Nov 7, 2025 bullish
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Gerstner: OpenAI and Anthropic are fastest-growing companies in Silicon Valley history
“Well, I would just say they correlate with what the information is reported as leaked, you know, data from both companies, and that makes them both the fastest growing companies in the history of Silicon Valley.”
Brad Gerstner Nov 7, 2025 ▶ 31:02 Does OpenAI Need a Bailout? Mamdani Wins, Socialism Rising, Filibuster Nuclear Option
Nov 7, 2025 neutral
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Gerstner: OpenAI will renegotiate spending commitments if revenues fall short
“I think they will just extend, recut the deals. In order to make those expenses doable for the company.”
Brad Gerstner Nov 7, 2025 ▶ 5:10 Does OpenAI Need a Bailout? Mamdani Wins, Socialism Rising, Filibuster Nuclear Option
Nov 7, 2025 neutral
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Gerstner: Partners will bear half of OpenAI's $1.4T spend commitments
“I estimate about half of that spending is going to be borne by the partners. So now we're talking seven hundred billion dollars in spending. Spread that over five or six years in the out years, you're probably talking about a hundred and Fifty billion dollars …”
Brad Gerstner Nov 7, 2025 ▶ 4:36 Does OpenAI Need a Bailout? Mamdani Wins, Socialism Rising, Filibuster Nuclear Option
Nov 7, 2025 positive
Assertion Supported
Altman: OpenAI is generating well over $13 billion in revenue
“We're doing well more revenue than that.”
Sam Altman Nov 7, 2025 ▶ 1:32 Does OpenAI Need a Bailout? Mamdani Wins, Socialism Rising, Filibuster Nuclear Option
Nov 22, 2025 negative
Assertion Supported
Calacanis: Larry Summers messaged Epstein until 2019 for dating advice
“Friend of the pod, Larry Summers, was a main character in them, and he was communicating with Epstein up until 2019, asking him, For advice on dating. He's since stepped down from OpenAI and several other public-facing roles.”
Jason Calacanis Nov 22, 2025 ▶ 2:04 Epstein Files Fallout, Nvidia Risks, Burry's Bad Bet, Google's Breakthrough, Tether's Boom
Nov 22, 2025 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Calacanis: Google search will grow, while OpenAI will lose market share
“I think the search franchise is going to grow, and that Google is not going to lose to ChatGPT, and I think the big loser in all this is going to be OpenAI, because they started with a hundred percent of the market, and they're only going down, and they're fac…”
Jason Calacanis Nov 22, 2025 ▶ 38:21 Epstein Files Fallout, Nvidia Risks, Burry's Bad Bet, Google's Breakthrough, Tether's Boom
Dec 6, 2025 bullish
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Calacanis: Anthropic is beating OpenAI in enterprise revenue
“Anthropic is beating OpenAI in enterprise revenue.”
Jason Calacanis Dec 6, 2025 ▶ 0:46 OpenAI's Code Red, Sacks vs New York Times, New Poverty Line?
Dec 6, 2025 bearish
Prediction Held up
Calacanis: OpenAI market share will fall below 50 percent within two years
“So I think what we're going to see here, if we're sitting here, I don't know, next year, they're going to be in the next 12 to 24 months under 50%.”
Jason Calacanis Dec 6, 2025 ▶ 12:41 OpenAI's Code Red, Sacks vs New York Times, New Poverty Line?
Dec 6, 2025 positive
Assertion Partly supported
Chamath: OpenAI has 800 million monthly active users
“And now it will still favor open AI because they have eight hundred million monthly actives.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Dec 6, 2025 ▶ 3:09 OpenAI's Code Red, Sacks vs New York Times, New Poverty Line?
Dec 6, 2025 negative
Assertion Partly supported
Friedberg: Gemini reached 15 percent AI traffic as OpenAI share dropped
“A little over a year ago, they were at 90% plus market share in generative AI traffic. And today Gemini is at 14, 15%.”
David Friedberg Dec 6, 2025 ▶ 6:08 OpenAI's Code Red, Sacks vs New York Times, New Poverty Line?
Dec 6, 2025 bearish
Opinion
Friedberg: OpenAI's defensive posture has damaged ChatGPT's product and brand
“ChatGPT is now acting and OpenAI has been acting like an incumbent, fearful of losing market share and fearful of getting attacked in the media and attacked by consumers for saying the wrong thing. And so they've taken this kind of defensive posture that I thi…”
David Friedberg Dec 6, 2025 ▶ 24:08 OpenAI's Code Red, Sacks vs New York Times, New Poverty Line?
Dec 6, 2025 bearish
Prediction Held up
Calacanis: Nvidia will decline or severely downgrade investment in OpenAI
“I think NVIDIA is not going to take their option to invest in open AI, or they're going to really downgrade at 70, 80%, and they're going to allocate it to other players.”
Jason Calacanis Dec 6, 2025 ▶ 18:35 OpenAI's Code Red, Sacks vs New York Times, New Poverty Line?
Jan 10, 2026 bullish
Prediction Open · timeframe Dec 2026
Calacanis: At least two major tech unicorns will file IPOs in 2026
“Anticipate one of the following two will file. SpaceX, Android, Stripe, Anthropic, and OpenAI. I think two of those file, and it is going to be gangbusters.”
Jason Calacanis Jan 10, 2026 ▶ 1:20:27 All-In's 2026 Predictions
Jan 10, 2026 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Calacanis: OpenAI will continue losing market share to Google and xAI
“And for my contrarian, I was thinking about going with OpenAI losing their lead and not being the number one company again, because I do think that will be the trend that they will have the, they'll continue to give up Their market share to other players, incl…”
Jason Calacanis Jan 10, 2026 ▶ 1:02:14 All-In's 2026 Predictions
Jan 14, 2026 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Taneja: Anthropic and OpenAI could realistically become trillion-dollar companies
“Now we're talking about, can we create trillion dollar companies, right? I mean, that's not a pie in the sky idea with Anthropic and OpenAI and a couple others.”
Hemant Taneja Jan 14, 2026 ▶ 7:38 Why AI will dwarf every tech revolution before it: robots, manufacturing, AR glasses from CES 2026
Jan 17, 2026 neutral
Assertion Supported
Chamath: OpenAI is diversifying inference hardware across AMD, Nvidia, and Cerebras
“What I can tell you is that OpenAI is aggressively trying to diversify so that they have multiple paths Of inference available. They have a huge deal with AMD. They have a huge deal with Nvidia. They now have a huge deal with Cerebris.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Jan 17, 2026 ▶ 33:13 Iran's Breaking Point, Trump's Greenland Acquisition, and Solving Energy Costs
Jan 17, 2026 positive
Assertion Supported
Calacanis: OpenAI committed to 750MW compute deal with Cerebras
“OpenAI is buying compute capacity from Cerebras. That's C-E-R-E-B-R-A-S. They committed to purchase up to 750 megawatts over three years.”
Jason Calacanis Jan 17, 2026 ▶ 31:22 Iran's Breaking Point, Trump's Greenland Acquisition, and Solving Energy Costs
Jan 23, 2026 bullish
Disclosure
Feldman: Cerebras announced 750-megawatt deal with OpenAI
“What we announced was, 750 megawatts, is what was announced.”
Andrew Feldman Jan 23, 2026 ▶ 49:05 Coinbase CEO's Top 3 Crypto Trends for 2026 + More from Davos!
Jan 23, 2026 positive
Disclosure
Feldman: OpenAI is a Cerebras customer, but Anthropic is not
“And Claude is not a, Anthropic is not a customer, but we recently announced OpenAI.”
Andrew Feldman Jan 23, 2026 ▶ 46:52 Coinbase CEO's Top 3 Crypto Trends for 2026 + More from Davos!
Jan 25, 2026 bullish
What-if
Lockmiller: Competitors would quickly absorb compute capacity if OpenAI failed
“Imagine, imagine they did go out of business. The reason they'd go out of business is because some other model company, whether it be, you know, Anthropic or Gemini or Grok, like really blew them out of the water. But if that were to happen, the group that mas…”
Chase Lochmiller Jan 25, 2026 ▶ 2:01:42 The Future of Everything: What CEOs of Circle, CrowdStrike & More See Coming in 2026
Jan 31, 2026 bearish
Disclosure
Calacanis: Canceled $25,000 worth of OpenAI accounts
“I canceled all of my OpenAI accounts. 25,000 dollars. Gone.”
Jason Calacanis Jan 31, 2026 ▶ 1:02:33 ICE Chaos in Minneapolis, Clawdbot Takeover, Why the Dollar is Dropping
Feb 7, 2026 bullish
Prediction Partly held up
Gerstner: DeepSeek, Anthropic, and OpenAI will launch Blackwell-trained models in 4–8 weeks
“And just this year, like we're going to see the first models over the course of the next four to eight weeks out of deep seek, out of anthropic, out of open AI that are trained on blackwell servers, right? You're going to see a next generation of models Far mo…”
Brad Gerstner Feb 7, 2026 ▶ 43:14 Epstein Files, Is SaaS Dead?, Moltbook Panic, SpaceX xAI Merger, Trump's Fed Pick
Feb 28, 2026
Assertion Supported
Chamath: OpenAI CFO Sarah Friar says 1GW equals $10B revenue
“OpenAI, Sarah Fryer said this, that every gigawatt for her, for OpenAI, is about ten billion of revenue.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Feb 28, 2026 ▶ 36:53 Software Stocks Implode, Claude's Hit List, State of the Union Reactions, Trump's Tariff Pivot
Mar 13, 2026 bullish
Assertion Supported
Calacanis: OpenAI ended 2025 at a $20B run rate
“OpenAI ended 20 25 at twenty billion annualized run rate.”
Jason Calacanis Mar 13, 2026 ▶ 27:42 Iran War, Oil Shock, Off Ramps, AI's Revenue Explosion and PR Nightmare
Mar 13, 2026 bullish
Disclosure
Gerstner: Altimeter bought more OpenAI shares
“I bought a lot more since then, Jason. I bought a lot more since then.”
Brad Gerstner Mar 13, 2026 ▶ 28:45 Iran War, Oil Shock, Off Ramps, AI's Revenue Explosion and PR Nightmare
Mar 13, 2026 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Altman: AI intelligence will be sold like a metered utility
“Fundamentally, our business, and I think the business of every other model provider, is gonna look like selling tokens, but we see a future where intelligence is a utility, like electricity or water, and people buy it from us. On a meter and use it for whateve…”
Sam Altman Mar 13, 2026 ▶ 50:13 Iran War, Oil Shock, Off Ramps, AI's Revenue Explosion and PR Nightmare
Mar 19, 2026 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Huang: Enterprise software firms will resell Anthropic and OpenAI tokens
“I believe every single enterprise software company will also be a reseller, value-added reseller of Anthropics tokens. Value-added reseller of OpenAI.”
Jensen Huang Mar 19, 2026 ▶ 56:38 Jensen Huang: Nvidia's Future, Physical AI, Rise of the Agent, Inference Explosion, AI PR Crisis
Mar 19, 2026
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Huang: Open source is second in AI usage, Anthropic a distant third
“Open AI is number one, open source is number two, very distant third is Anthropic”
Jensen Huang Mar 19, 2026 ▶ 22:03 Jensen Huang: Nvidia's Future, Physical AI, Rise of the Agent, Inference Explosion, AI PR Crisis
Mar 23, 2026 positive
Assertion Partly supported
Intrator: OpenAI token costs dropped from $32 to nine cents
“She was talking about the cost of a million tokens when ChatGP three came out, and it was 32 dollars in change, and now a million tokens cost nine cents.”
Michael Intrator Mar 23, 2026 ▶ 30:50 Four CEOs on the Future of AI: CoreWeave, Perplexity, Mistral, and IREN
Mar 23, 2026
Insight
Srinivas: Big Tech AI labs cannot aggregate rival models without admitting failure
“It makes no sense for them. It would be an admission that all the data centers in CapEx they've built out still couldn't produce them the best model.”
Aravind Srinivas Mar 23, 2026 ▶ 48:41 Four CEOs on the Future of AI: CoreWeave, Perplexity, Mistral, and IREN
Mar 27, 2026 neutral
Assertion Supported
Chamath: OpenAI revenue is 75% consumer while Anthropic is mostly API
“OpenAI is three quarters consumer subscriptions and a quarter API. Anthropic is almost the exact opposite.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Mar 27, 2026 ▶ 11:07 Anthropic's Generational Run, OpenAI Panics, AI Moats, Meta Loses Major Lawsuits
Mar 27, 2026
Assertion Supported
Calacanis: OpenAI offered private equity firms guaranteed 17.5% return
“OpenAI also offered private equity investors a guaranteed minimum return of 17.5% as part of a joint venture that would help PE firms deploy AI and ease the high upfront cost of that.”
Jason Calacanis Mar 27, 2026 ▶ 17:52 Anthropic's Generational Run, OpenAI Panics, AI Moats, Meta Loses Major Lawsuits
Mar 27, 2026 bullish
Opinion
Chamath: Winning consumer AI makes OpenAI a multi-trillion dollar company
“Even if OpenAI just won the consumer business, it is a multi-trillion dollar company with enormous scale and value.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Mar 27, 2026 ▶ 19:24 Anthropic's Generational Run, OpenAI Panics, AI Moats, Meta Loses Major Lawsuits
Mar 27, 2026 neutral
Prediction Not yet assessed · timeframe Mar 2031
Chamath: OpenAI and Anthropic will adopt normalized metrics by IPO
“And by the time it goes public, both of these two businesses will have a very clean, and I suspect normalized way of telling a story so that you can actually compare.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Mar 27, 2026 ▶ 11:53 Anthropic's Generational Run, OpenAI Panics, AI Moats, Meta Loses Major Lawsuits
Apr 3, 2026 bearish
Prediction Open · timeframe Apr 2027
Chamath: Software sector P/E multiples will contract as AI degrades tech moats
“The tech sector PE is going to shrink faster, in my opinion, than the non-tech PE. And the reason is because as these companies come out, the combination of SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic, all three are baking An AI technology that first and foremost will go af…”
Chamath Palihapitiya Apr 3, 2026 ▶ 31:03 SpaceX IPO, Iran War Fallout, Quantum Bitcoin Hack, The Space Opportunity
Apr 3, 2026 bullish
Opinion
Chamath: OpenAI and Anthropic are both true trillion-dollar companies
“These are trillion dollar companies. They both are, and they both deserve to be.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Apr 3, 2026 ▶ 30:29 SpaceX IPO, Iran War Fallout, Quantum Bitcoin Hack, The Space Opportunity
Apr 10, 2026 neutral
Assertion Supported
Calacanis: Anthropic secondary shares trading significantly above $380B valuation
“And in the secondary market, OpenAI is trading lower than the last valuation, and Anthropic is trading significantly above the three hundred eighty billion dollar.”
Jason Calacanis Apr 10, 2026 ▶ 58:47 Anthropic’s $30B Ramp, Mythos Doomsday, OpenClaw Ankled, Iran War Ceasefire, Israel's Influence
Apr 10, 2026 positive
Assertion Supported
Gerstner: Google, OpenAI, and Anthropic actively coordinate on safety
“The Frontier Model Forum, which was put together in 23 is cooperating on anti and adversarial distillation stuff as we speak, right? They don't want to make it easy on, you know, so Google and OpenAI and Anthropic, they're coordinating on this stuff.”
Brad Gerstner Apr 10, 2026 ▶ 18:56 Anthropic’s $30B Ramp, Mythos Doomsday, OpenClaw Ankled, Iran War Ceasefire, Israel's Influence
Apr 10, 2026 bullish
Disclosure
Gerstner is buying OpenAI shares despite negative market sentiment
“I'm a buyer of the shares today, notwithstanding all of the vibes that you describe.”
Brad Gerstner Apr 10, 2026 ▶ 1:00:58 Anthropic’s $30B Ramp, Mythos Doomsday, OpenClaw Ankled, Iran War Ceasefire, Israel's Influence
Apr 10, 2026 bullish
Disclosure
Gerstner: Altimeter has billions invested in both Anthropic and OpenAI
“No, we've got billions of both companies.”
Brad Gerstner Apr 10, 2026 ▶ 1:03:17 Anthropic’s $30B Ramp, Mythos Doomsday, OpenClaw Ankled, Iran War Ceasefire, Israel's Influence
Apr 10, 2026 bullish
Prediction Held up
Gerstner predicts OpenAI and Google will sandbox frontier AI models
“I think that OpenAI will end up doing the same thing. I think Google will end up doing the same thing.”
Brad Gerstner Apr 10, 2026 ▶ 8:26 Anthropic’s $30B Ramp, Mythos Doomsday, OpenClaw Ankled, Iran War Ceasefire, Israel's Influence
Apr 17, 2026
Prediction Open · timeframe Apr 2029
Chamath predicts OpenAI and Anthropic must build their own data centers
“I don't see any path except they're going to have to do it themselves, and Anthropic will have to do it themselves.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Apr 17, 2026 ▶ 29:31 OpenAI's Identity Crisis, Datacenter Wars, Market Up on Iran News, Mamdani's First Tax, Swalwell Out
Apr 17, 2026 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Chamath: OpenAI and Anthropic revenue growth will stall without enough compute
“I think if you play this out, the real problem, again, goes back to Anthropic and OpenAI. If I were them, it is a five alarm fire for them. They more than anybody else needs to get their hands on compute. They need to have LAN PowerShell, but otherwise that re…”
Chamath Palihapitiya Apr 17, 2026 ▶ 42:22 OpenAI's Identity Crisis, Datacenter Wars, Market Up on Iran News, Mamdani's First Tax, Swalwell Out
Apr 17, 2026 bearish
Disclosure
Chamath is currently risk-off and waiting for AI IPOs to de-lever
“I don't know, for me personally, I'm generally more risk off right now. And more importantly, I'm waiting for these IPOs so that I can, to be very honest with you, de-lever and get some chips off the table. I think that it is crucial that this SpaceX IPO get d…”
Chamath Palihapitiya Apr 17, 2026 ▶ 1:17:08 OpenAI's Identity Crisis, Datacenter Wars, Market Up on Iran News, Mamdani's First Tax, Swalwell Out
Apr 17, 2026 bullish
Assertion Supported
Sacks asserts Anthropic revenue is growing 10x compared to OpenAI's 3x
“The open AI growth rate's been around three to four X a year. The anthropic growth rate has been around 10 X a year.”
David Sacks Apr 17, 2026 ▶ 23:02 OpenAI's Identity Crisis, Datacenter Wars, Market Up on Iran News, Mamdani's First Tax, Swalwell Out
May 1, 2026 negative
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Sacks: Google taking market share caused OpenAI to miss consumer targets
“I would say that if there's a single reason why open AI did not hit its user targets and its revenue targets, certainly around consumer, you'd have to say it's because Google managed to take meaningful share.”
David Sacks May 1, 2026 ▶ 18:39 OpenAI Misses Targets, Codex vs Claude, Elon vs Sam Trial, Big Hyperscaler Beats, Peptide Craze
May 1, 2026 negative
Assertion Supported
OpenAI missed target of one billion weekly active users by 2025
“OpenAI expected to hit one billion wows weekly active users before the end of 2025. They missed that, and they still haven't hit the milestone four months into 2026.”
Jason Calacanis May 1, 2026 ▶ 3:16 OpenAI Misses Targets, Codex vs Claude, Elon vs Sam Trial, Big Hyperscaler Beats, Peptide Craze
May 1, 2026 neutral
Assertion Supported
OpenAI has $600 billion in compute spending commitments
“OpenAI has six hundred billion dollars in spending commitments for compute.”
Jason Calacanis May 1, 2026 ▶ 3:48 OpenAI Misses Targets, Codex vs Claude, Elon vs Sam Trial, Big Hyperscaler Beats, Peptide Craze
May 1, 2026 neutral
Assertion Supported
Palihapitiya: Polymarket odds place Elon Musk's chance of winning at 42-43%
“It's effectively at 42 or 43% that Elon wins.”
Chamath Palihapitiya May 1, 2026 ▶ 34:36 OpenAI Misses Targets, Codex vs Claude, Elon vs Sam Trial, Big Hyperscaler Beats, Peptide Craze
May 1, 2026 neutral
Assertion Supported
Friedberg: OpenAI has 900 million weekly active users
“Open AI, even if they're not at a billion, they're still at nine hundred million weekly users, which is well ahead of whatever Claude is at.”
David Friedberg May 1, 2026 ▶ 13:38 OpenAI Misses Targets, Codex vs Claude, Elon vs Sam Trial, Big Hyperscaler Beats, Peptide Craze
May 1, 2026 neutral
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Calacanis predicts Elon Musk vs. OpenAI lawsuit will end in settlement
“My guess is, like most of these things, there'll be some sort of settlement or something here, but maybe he takes it to the mat, who knows.”
Jason Calacanis May 1, 2026 ▶ 38:24 OpenAI Misses Targets, Codex vs Claude, Elon vs Sam Trial, Big Hyperscaler Beats, Peptide Craze
May 1, 2026 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Chamath: Power bottlenecks will hurt OpenAI and Anthropic, benefiting hyperscalers
“Who will this hurt? It will hurt Anthropic and OpenAI the most. Who will this benefit? It will benefit the hyperscalers, specifically Oracle, Amazon, Meta, Microsoft, and Google.”
Chamath Palihapitiya May 1, 2026 ▶ 10:40 OpenAI Misses Targets, Codex vs Claude, Elon vs Sam Trial, Big Hyperscaler Beats, Peptide Craze
May 1, 2026 positive
Prediction Open · timeframe Dec 2026
OpenAI aims to execute an IPO later in 2026
“OpenAI wants to IPO later this year.”
Jason Calacanis May 1, 2026 ▶ 4:10 OpenAI Misses Targets, Codex vs Claude, Elon vs Sam Trial, Big Hyperscaler Beats, Peptide Craze
May 1, 2026 bullish
Assertion Supported
GPT-5.5 uses Spud, OpenAI's first base model upgrade in a year
“GPT-Five. Five is based on a new base model called Spud, which is the first base model upgrade they've done in, I don't know, over a year, and having a new base model will pave the way for future improvements as well.”
David Sacks May 1, 2026 ▶ 6:10 OpenAI Misses Targets, Codex vs Claude, Elon vs Sam Trial, Big Hyperscaler Beats, Peptide Craze
May 1, 2026 negative
Assertion Supported
OpenAI missed its 2025 revenue target for ChatGPT
“They missed their 2025 revenue target for ChatGPT.”
Jason Calacanis May 1, 2026 ▶ 3:32 OpenAI Misses Targets, Codex vs Claude, Elon vs Sam Trial, Big Hyperscaler Beats, Peptide Craze
May 8, 2026 neutral
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Sacks: Only Anthropic and OpenAI generate substantial AI revenue currently
“There's only two companies making substantial revenue on AI. It's Anthropic and OpenAI.”
David Sacks May 8, 2026 ▶ 27:19 Elon’s Anthropic Deal, The Next AI Monopoly?, “FDA for AI” Panic, Trading the AI Boom
May 8, 2026 neutral
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Gerstner: Anthropic matched OpenAI's GAAP revenue in March
“On a gap basis, they're doing about the same revenue as OpenAI in the month of March, okay?”
Brad Gerstner May 8, 2026 ▶ 30:14 Elon’s Anthropic Deal, The Next AI Monopoly?, “FDA for AI” Panic, Trading the AI Boom
May 15, 2026 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Chamath: SpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI IPOs will trigger litany of SPV lawsuits
“By the way, and I will guarantee you this. Once SpaceX goes public, once Anthropic goes public, once OpenAI goes public, you're going to see a litany of these lawsuits back and forth between the purveyors of these SPVs.”
Chamath Palihapitiya May 15, 2026 ▶ 1:12:28 Trump-Xi Summit, Benioff: "Not My First SaaSpocalypse," OpenAI vs Apple, Multi-Sensory AI, El Niño
May 15, 2026 bullish
Assertion Partly supported
Benioff: OpenAI, Anthropic, and every AI company standardized on Slack
“And you know, that open AI and Anthropik and every AI company is standardized on Slack.”
Marc Benioff May 15, 2026 ▶ 44:33 Trump-Xi Summit, Benioff: "Not My First SaaSpocalypse," OpenAI vs Apple, Multi-Sensory AI, El Niño
May 15, 2026 negative
Opinion
Friedberg: OpenAI struggles to sustain long-term business partnerships
“This, there doesn't seem to be a lot of long-term partnerships with OpenAI.”
David Friedberg May 15, 2026 ▶ 52:43 Trump-Xi Summit, Benioff: "Not My First SaaSpocalypse," OpenAI vs Apple, Multi-Sensory AI, El Niño
May 22, 2026 neutral
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Gavin Baker: Only xAI, Google, OpenAI, and Anthropic are AI frontier companies
“And the companies on the frontier are XAI with one build of Grok 4.3, which is a five hundred billion parameter model. Google, 3.1 pro, and then OpenAI and Anthropic, and that's it. Those are the companies on the frontier.”
Gavin Baker May 22, 2026 ▶ 53:14 SpaceX’s $2T Case, Nvidia’s Shock Selloff, America Turns on AI, Trump Pulls AI Order, Bond Crisis?
May 22, 2026 positive
Assertion Supported
Chamath: OpenAI used AI and human collaboration to solve decades-old math problem
“So for example, we were able to solve, I'm just collectively saying we, in this case, it was specifically open AI. By the use of a human, and this is important, you know, a math problem that stood outstanding, not been solved for decades and decades.”
Chamath Palihapitiya May 22, 2026 ▶ 10:16 SpaceX’s $2T Case, Nvidia’s Shock Selloff, America Turns on AI, Trump Pulls AI Order, Bond Crisis?
Jun 2, 2026 negative
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Friar: Additional compute capacity is virtually impossible to buy in 2026
“But the landscape right now, in 26, if you want to buy more compute, good luck to you. Like, tell me, because I don't know where else to find it.”
Sarah Friar Jun 2, 2026 ▶ 13:03 OpenAI CFO Sarah Friar: IPO, AI Rivalries, New Device, and Spending $100B+ on Compute
Jun 2, 2026
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Friar: OpenAI's revenue is split roughly 50/50 between consumer and enterprise
“Our revenue is getting pretty balanced about 50, 50.”
Sarah Friar Jun 2, 2026 ▶ 6:13 OpenAI CFO Sarah Friar: IPO, AI Rivalries, New Device, and Spending $100B+ on Compute
Jun 2, 2026 positive
Disclosure
OpenAI breaks ground on a 1-gigawatt data center in Michigan
“Sam right now is in Saline, Michigan. He's gonna be cutting the ribbon in about two hours, so you are getting a sneak preview, but they told me it was okay to say it in the room. That will be, you know, sticking shovels in the ground on a one gigawatt data cen…”
Sarah Friar Jun 2, 2026 ▶ 9:48 OpenAI CFO Sarah Friar: IPO, AI Rivalries, New Device, and Spending $100B+ on Compute
Jun 2, 2026 negative
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Friar: Per-gigawatt compute costs are rising due to power and memory expenses
“So we assume right now that computed actually on a per gigawatt is getting more expensive because power is getting more expensive. Memory is getting more expensive and so on.”
Sarah Friar Jun 2, 2026 ▶ 20:12 OpenAI CFO Sarah Friar: IPO, AI Rivalries, New Device, and Spending $100B+ on Compute
Jun 2, 2026 bullish
Disclosure
Friar: OpenAI's next major fall training run will use Nvidia Vera Rubin
“So today, Nvidia remains our absolute priority partner. They have the frontier chip. Our next big trading run in the fall will be done on Vera Rubens.”
Sarah Friar Jun 2, 2026 ▶ 24:18 OpenAI CFO Sarah Friar: IPO, AI Rivalries, New Device, and Spending $100B+ on Compute
Jun 2, 2026 neutral
Prediction Open · timeframe Apr 2028
Friar: OpenAI won't get compute from Michigan data center until late 2027 or 2028
“Like that Michigan data center in Saline, I don't think we will be getting compute out of it until probably end of 27, early 28.”
Sarah Friar Jun 2, 2026 ▶ 19:08 OpenAI CFO Sarah Friar: IPO, AI Rivalries, New Device, and Spending $100B+ on Compute
Jun 2, 2026
Insight
Friar: Relying on one chip vendor prevents staying on AI's frontier
“I think if you're only on one chip, there's just inherently a moment where you can't be on the frontier because there's some leapfrogging that happens.”
Sarah Friar Jun 2, 2026 ▶ 24:12 OpenAI CFO Sarah Friar: IPO, AI Rivalries, New Device, and Spending $100B+ on Compute
Jun 2, 2026 bullish
Insight
Friar: Scaling AI models lowers token costs and raises gross margins
“As we, as models get bigger, there's more efficiency that should lower the overall cost to give you a token in the world. That should compound to higher gross margins, ultimately more ways to pay for compute, and then access to compute is one of the really big…”
Sarah Friar Jun 2, 2026 ▶ 5:23 OpenAI CFO Sarah Friar: IPO, AI Rivalries, New Device, and Spending $100B+ on Compute
Jun 2, 2026
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Friar: OpenAI free users average seven questions daily while Pro users do 11x
“Our free users do about seven turns, seven questions a day. Our first paid tier do double that, about 15. Our real paid tier with the plus, 20 bucks, hopefully you're all on it, or higher, about three X. And pro, about 11 X over a free user.”
Sarah Friar Jun 2, 2026 ▶ 7:14 OpenAI CFO Sarah Friar: IPO, AI Rivalries, New Device, and Spending $100B+ on Compute
Jun 2, 2026 positive
Disclosure
Friar implies OpenAI will introduce ads, commits to ad-free tier
“We'll always provide A free, a tier, sorry, an ad free tier for people that just don't want ads.”
Sarah Friar Jun 2, 2026 ▶ 29:55 OpenAI CFO Sarah Friar: IPO, AI Rivalries, New Device, and Spending $100B+ on Compute
Jun 2, 2026 neutral
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Friar: OpenAI API revenue per token is an order of magnitude higher than consumer
“If you look at the revenue per token right now, if I was optimizing only for today, I would give every token to the API. Order of magnitude more than to the consumer.”
Sarah Friar Jun 2, 2026 ▶ 31:07 OpenAI CFO Sarah Friar: IPO, AI Rivalries, New Device, and Spending $100B+ on Compute
Jun 2, 2026 bullish
Opinion
Friar: LLMs are not commoditizing because value lies in agentic layers
“A year ago people talked about the commoditization of the LLMs. And frankly, it's gone the opposite because as you start building an agentic layer, and we've all started to use this word harness, but the harness is what brings the context, the memory, right?”
Sarah Friar Jun 2, 2026 ▶ 27:05 OpenAI CFO Sarah Friar: IPO, AI Rivalries, New Device, and Spending $100B+ on Compute
Jun 2, 2026
Disclosure
Friar: OpenAI uses Cerebras, pipeline AMD chips, and custom Broadcom silicon
“But we also now have chips in the pipeline from AMD. Cerebrus is already online. It's been an incredible low latency chip. Great for devs, for example, that want real time coding. And there's our own chip that we're working on with Broadcom.”
Sarah Friar Jun 2, 2026 ▶ 24:31 OpenAI CFO Sarah Friar: IPO, AI Rivalries, New Device, and Spending $100B+ on Compute
Jun 2, 2026 bullish
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Friar: OpenAI holds at least 11% of search market share
“We know we have at least 11% of the search market.”
Sarah Friar Jun 2, 2026 ▶ 30:12 OpenAI CFO Sarah Friar: IPO, AI Rivalries, New Device, and Spending $100B+ on Compute
Jun 2, 2026 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Friar: OpenAI will still lack sufficient compute capacity in 2026
“Thank God we did, because in 26, we still won't have enough compute.”
Sarah Friar Jun 2, 2026 ▶ 8:56 OpenAI CFO Sarah Friar: IPO, AI Rivalries, New Device, and Spending $100B+ on Compute
Jun 2, 2026 bullish
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Friar: OpenAI Codex reached 5 million users from near zero in January
“Codex just hit five million over the weekend. We're really proud of that. Coming from almost zero in January.”
Sarah Friar Jun 2, 2026 ▶ 4:45 OpenAI CFO Sarah Friar: IPO, AI Rivalries, New Device, and Spending $100B+ on Compute
Jun 2, 2026 bullish
Prediction Open · timeframe Apr 2027
Sarah Friar: OpenAI will unveil new hardware in 2026 and sell in 2027
“We're changing into a consumer substrate that I cannot tell you what it is, but by the end of this year, we will unveil it. Early next year we'll be able to buy it.”
Sarah Friar Jun 2, 2026 ▶ 14:57 OpenAI CFO Sarah Friar: IPO, AI Rivalries, New Device, and Spending $100B+ on Compute
Jun 3, 2026 neutral
Opinion
Ackman: Sarah Friar should be OpenAI CEO and Sam Altman chair
“I thought she should be CEO of OpenAI. I think Sam should be chair.”
Bill Ackman Jun 3, 2026 ▶ 0:37 Bill Ackman: Here's What the Market is MISSING
Jun 4, 2026 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Laffont: Top AI platform revenue could surpass Microsoft by 2028
“We estimate that only, not only is it bigger than Azure, but by the end of the year it could be bigger than AWS and potentially bigger than all of Microsoft. By twenty-twenty-eight.”
Thomas Laffont Jun 4, 2026 ▶ 6:56 Thomas Laffont: The $4T AI IPO Wave Is Coming… and We’ve Never Seen Anything Like It
Jun 6, 2026 bullish
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Feldman: Cerebras is 15 to 18 times faster than a GPU for OpenAI
“So when OpenAI uses us, we're 15 or 18 times faster than a GPU.”
Andrew Feldman Jun 6, 2026 ▶ 23:57 The IPO Comeback: Why Tech Giants Are Finally Going Public | All-In Liquidity IPO Panel
Jun 7, 2026 positive
Opinion
Gerstner: 2021 is a better historical comparison for current AI valuations than 1999
“That is very different than Anthropic, OpenAI, and SpaceX. These are extraordinarily real businesses, so I think the better compare is, like, twenty-twenty-one, right, where valuations get ahead of themselves, or they're at the top end of the range.”
Brad Gerstner Jun 7, 2026 ▶ 31:25 Why Secondary Markets Are Eating the IPO | All-In Liquidity Secondary Markets Panel
Jun 13, 2026 positive
Opinion
Calacanis: Sarah Friar would be perfect OpenAI CEO, Sam Altman chairman
“I think Sam would be better as chairman. I think she would be the perfect CEO.”
Jason Calacanis Jun 13, 2026 ▶ 59:49 Anthropic's Fable Backlash, Nationalizing AI, Inflation Heats Up & California’s Broken Elections
Jun 27, 2026 positive
Assertion Partly supported
Chamath: OpenAI-backed pro-AI groups beat Anthropic-backed anti-AI groups in key primaries
“In Utah and in New York, there was a couple of very important races where it was essentially anthropic funded anti AI groups, which is again, insane against In some ways, open AI funded pro AI groups and the pro AI groups won.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Jun 27, 2026 ▶ 4:23 Socialists Sweep NYC, China Catches Up in Coding, AI Memory Crunch, Micron's Blowout Quarter
Jul 3, 2026
Assertion Partly supported
Sacks: Anthropic ARR is around $60B+ and OpenAI ARR is $47B
“We know that Anthropic's around sixty-something billion of ARR. Open AI is at forty-seven billion of ARR.”
David Sacks Jul 3, 2026 ▶ 27:30 AI Sovereignty Wars, Palantir-Nvidia Deal, SCOTUS Birthright Ruling, Newsom’s CA Budget Lie
Jul 10, 2026 positive
Insight
Feldman: Modern AI models no longer require precise prompt whispering
“And increasingly, it's understanding what your intent was. And if you have a chance to play with Fable or Five Six from OpenAI, increasingly, what, you don't have to get the prompt just right. You don't have to be a prompt whisperer.”
Andrew Feldman Jul 10, 2026 ▶ 7:34 Open Source Wins, AGI Is Here, and Scorsese’s AI Toolkit with CEOs of Cerebras & Black Forest Labs
Jul 11, 2026 bullish
Disclosure
Gerstner: Altimeter would buy at scale in Anthropic and OpenAI IPOs
“But today, as I sit here today, Altimeter would be a buyer at scale and at size in both of those IPOs.”
Brad Gerstner Jul 11, 2026 ▶ 11:40 OpenAI vs Anthropic IPOs, Anthropic $3T, Zuck's Price War, China Ends Open Source?, Trump Accounts
Jul 11, 2026 bullish
Prediction Open · timeframe Jul 2029
Gerstner: SpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI will compound revenue at 30%+ annually
“I think all of these companies are gonna compound revenue at well over 30% for the next many years.”
Brad Gerstner Jul 11, 2026 ▶ 13:12 OpenAI vs Anthropic IPOs, Anthropic $3T, Zuck's Price War, China Ends Open Source?, Trump Accounts
Jul 11, 2026 neutral
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Sacks: AI token revenue is a duopoly between Anthropic and OpenAI
“The market today seems to be pushing towards duopoly, or it has become a duopoly, certainly measured in terms of revenue. If you were to look at market share based on token revenue, there's only two companies making meaningful revenue. Anthropics at, what, six…”
David Sacks Jul 11, 2026 ▶ 52:34 OpenAI vs Anthropic IPOs, Anthropic $3T, Zuck's Price War, China Ends Open Source?, Trump Accounts
Jul 14, 2026 neutral
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Junestrand: Foundation model providers are not competing in Legora's category
“They are not competing in our product category at all.”
Max Junestrand Jul 14, 2026 ▶ 47:43 The Trillion-Dollar Industries AI Is Disrupting: Voice, Law & the End of the Billable Hour
Jul 18, 2026 negative
Assertion Supported
Calacanis: Apple filed 41-page lawsuit against OpenAI for trade secret theft
“On July 10th, Apple filed a 41 page lawsuit against OpenAI over alleged, alleged stolen trade secrets.”
Jason Calacanis Jul 18, 2026 ▶ 37:57 Can the AI Industry Regulate Itself? Stripe Wants PayPal, China Catches Up, NY Bans Datacenters
Jul 18, 2026 negative
Assertion Supported
Calacanis: OpenAI hired over 400 Apple employees in recent years
“During all of this, OpenAI has poached over 400 Apple employees over the last year or two.”
Jason Calacanis Jul 18, 2026 ▶ 39:03 Can the AI Industry Regulate Itself? Stripe Wants PayPal, China Catches Up, NY Bans Datacenters
Jul 18, 2026 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Calacanis: Apple edge AI will put heavy downward pressure on OpenAI and Claude
“They will put so much downward pressure on Claude and OpenAI by just putting local models and supporting them with this memory architecture.”
Jason Calacanis Jul 18, 2026 ▶ 55:52 Can the AI Industry Regulate Itself? Stripe Wants PayPal, China Catches Up, NY Bans Datacenters
Jul 21, 2026 positive
Opinion
Mark Cuban: Mid-market tech companies should pursue $100M IPOs
“Because it's so driven by private capital, there should be a lot more companies going public, not at the SpaceX level, not open AI, not anthropic, but the hundred million dollar IPO.”
Mark Cuban Jul 21, 2026 ▶ 4:23 Mark Cuban on the AI Bubble: Who Actually Gets Wiped Out?
Jul 24, 2026 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Calacanis: Margin compression will derail OpenAI and Anthropic IPOs
“I believe that this is going to derail their IPOs. I'm taking it from the top. It's going to derail their IPOs. It's going to be headwinds against it because I think that they're going to have massive margin compression.”
Jason Calacanis Jul 24, 2026 ▶ 35:08 The Fight Over Open Source AI, Anthropic's $1.5B Payout, NYC Socialists: Evictions = Violence?
Jul 24, 2026 bullish
Prediction Open · timeframe Dec 2026
Sacks: OpenAI forecasts $75 billion in exit ARR by year-end
“I think they were expecting to end the year at sixty billion of ARR. And I think they're forecasting more like seventy five billion of exit ARR.”
David Sacks Jul 24, 2026 ▶ 31:49 The Fight Over Open Source AI, Anthropic's $1.5B Payout, NYC Socialists: Evictions = Violence?
Jul 30, 2026 negative
Assertion Supported
Altman: Unreleased OpenAI model used zero-day exploits to breach Hugging Face
“We were evaluating one of our unreleased models and it figured out that it could basically cheat on the test by chaining together multiple zero day exploits to break out of the sandbox, get access to the internet, and then break through multiple systems on the…”
Sam Altman Jul 30, 2026 ▶ 35:51 Chip Stocks Crash, $20B Fund Margin Called, Frontier Labs: SLOW DOWN AI, Mamdani's Grocery Stores
Jul 30, 2026 neutral
Opinion
Sacks: Frontier AI is already a duopoly of OpenAI and Anthropic
“If you look at the market for frontier intelligence in terms of revenue and usage, it's really down to a duopoly already. It's basically anthropic and open AI.”
David Sacks Jul 30, 2026 ▶ 40:31 Chip Stocks Crash, $20B Fund Margin Called, Frontier Labs: SLOW DOWN AI, Mamdani's Grocery Stores
Jul 30, 2026 bearish
Prediction Open · timeframe Jul 2029
Calacanis: Major enterprise customers will abandon OpenAI and Anthropic for open-source
“And I'll make this prediction here, that you're going to see some of the major customers Of Anthropic and major customers of OpenAI. I'm talking about the eight and nine figure customers, people spending fifty million, a hundred million a year. They're leaving…”
Jason Calacanis Jul 30, 2026 ▶ 45:09 Chip Stocks Crash, $20B Fund Margin Called, Frontier Labs: SLOW DOWN AI, Mamdani's Grocery Stores
Jul 30, 2026 positive
Disclosure
Altman: OpenAI discussed pacing AI development with the administration
“We've talked about the need to pace it as the models get more capable, which I think is in everyone's interest.”
Sam Altman Jul 30, 2026 ▶ 37:29 Chip Stocks Crash, $20B Fund Margin Called, Frontier Labs: SLOW DOWN AI, Mamdani's Grocery Stores
Jul 30, 2026 neutral
Disclosure
Altman: OpenAI paused training and may pace frontier AI development
“We paused training, or we may have to pace the rate of AI development to give ourselves enough time for society to harden around some of these new capability levels.”
Sam Altman Jul 30, 2026 ▶ 36:19 Chip Stocks Crash, $20B Fund Margin Called, Frontier Labs: SLOW DOWN AI, Mamdani's Grocery Stores
Jul 30, 2026 negative
Opinion
Altman: OpenAI model may have hacked other external systems
“I mean, there could be, yeah.”
Sam Altman Jul 30, 2026 ▶ 37:39 Chip Stocks Crash, $20B Fund Margin Called, Frontier Labs: SLOW DOWN AI, Mamdani's Grocery Stores
Aug 7, 2026 neutral
Insight
Sacks: Only frontier model providers can charge a premium for AI weights
“If you're not at the frontier, you can't charge for the model layer itself. If you are at the frontier, you can charge a premium, and that's where Anthropic and OpenAI”
David Sacks Aug 7, 2026 ▶ 11:11 Google’s AI Brain Drain, SpaceX's Huge Quarter, Airtable’s 90% Collapse, US Data Fuels China AI
Aug 7, 2026 positive
Opinion
Sacks: Frontier AI intelligence is now an Anthropic-OpenAI duopoly
“Now we're really down to just anthropic and open AI. So the market for frontier intelligence has become a duopoly.”
David Sacks Aug 7, 2026 ▶ 10:13 Google’s AI Brain Drain, SpaceX's Huge Quarter, Airtable’s 90% Collapse, US Data Fuels China AI
Aug 7, 2026 neutral
Assertion Contradicted
Gerstner: Vast majority of AI compute offtake comes from 3 companies
“So the vast majority of the offtake commitments are coming from Anthropic, OpenAI, and NVIDIA. Right. When you hear about the hyperscalers building all of this, you know, this computer, they're building it out to sell to the people that we you know, that we ju…”
Brad Gerstner Aug 7, 2026 ▶ 42:29 Google’s AI Brain Drain, SpaceX's Huge Quarter, Airtable’s 90% Collapse, US Data Fuels China AI
Aug 13, 2026 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Sacks: Anthropic's Pricing Power May Be Sustainable for Frontier AI
“So now, look, I actually think that their pricing power may be quite sustainable, because I think people are willing to pay, not the whole market, but a decent subset of the market is willing to pay a premium for true frontier intelligence.”
David Sacks Aug 13, 2026 ▶ 44:09 Anthropic's $2T IPO, Zuck's AI Manifesto, Nvidia's $500B AI Bet, Grok's Comeback
Aug 13, 2026 bearish
Insight
Baker: Closed model dominance creates a tough environment for software companies
“A world where Anthropik, OpenAI, and, you know, maybe even SpaceX are kind of the only model providers that dominate the model layer, that is a hard world for software.”
Gavin Baker Aug 13, 2026 ▶ 1:36:33 Anthropic's $2T IPO, Zuck's AI Manifesto, Nvidia's $500B AI Bet, Grok's Comeback
Aug 13, 2026 bearish
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Baker: Anthropic is losing marginal market share to OpenAI and Grok
“And what's wild to me is that probably on the margin, Anthropic is losing share to OpenAI, to open source, and to Grok, and they're still growing so fast.”
Gavin Baker Aug 13, 2026 ▶ 5:53 Anthropic's $2T IPO, Zuck's AI Manifesto, Nvidia's $500B AI Bet, Grok's Comeback
Aug 13, 2026 bullish
Assertion Partly supported
Sacks: OpenAI revenue growth exceeds 20 percent month-over-month
“I've heard that over the past two months, that growth rate is now over 20% month of a month, which if you extrapolate it out over 12 months would be a 10 X growth rate.”
David Sacks Aug 13, 2026 ▶ 11:21 Anthropic's $2T IPO, Zuck's AI Manifesto, Nvidia's $500B AI Bet, Grok's Comeback
Aug 21, 2026 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Chamath: Anthropic will never share model thinking tokens or traces with competitors
“And I just don't think that if Anthropic isn't willing, even if I'm an API customer to share my thinking tokens from my company with me, they're sure as s**t not going to share it with OpenAI and anybody else in a room.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Aug 21, 2026 ▶ 20:43 Dario Defends Himself, Datacenter Panic, AI Doomer Trap, Senate Toss-Up
Aug 21, 2026 negative
Assertion Supported
Chamath: Anthropic and OpenAI obfuscate thinking tokens unlike open-source models
“If you just compare open source models Versus the closed frontier models. There is no way for us to understand what the thinking tokens are, meaning you give it a prompt, you get back something, but all the stuff in the middle is obfuscated. Clot obfuscates it…”
Chamath Palihapitiya Aug 21, 2026 ▶ 10:42 Dario Defends Himself, Datacenter Panic, AI Doomer Trap, Senate Toss-Up
Aug 21, 2026 positive
Assertion Supported
Sacks: Sam Altman announced OpenAI will slow frontier model releases for safety
“Sam just came out with a post, I believe yesterday, saying that actually they're going to slow down the release of some of their frontier models because they felt that their safety stack was not keeping up with the capability.”
David Sacks Aug 21, 2026 ▶ 18:13 Dario Defends Himself, Datacenter Panic, AI Doomer Trap, Senate Toss-Up
Sep 4, 2026 negative
Opinion
Calacanis: AI alarmism serves as hype priming OpenAI's IPO
“Now, OpenAI got so much earned media before their IPO. And Dworkesh just absolutely put kerosene on that fire, and it made its way to national press. That story has now gotten everywhere. And this makes people, it's priming the pump to buy the IPO shares. It's…”
Jason Calacanis Sep 4, 2026 ▶ 38:19 GPT-6 Hits AGI? Tech Euphoria 2.0, SF Mansion Shortage, NYC Bans AI in Schools & Venezuela Oil Deal
Sep 4, 2026 bullish
Opinion
Calacanis: Nvidia is OpenAI and Anthropic's top competitor in enterprise compute
“And I believe right now, starting today, NVIDIA is the number one competitor for OpenAI and Anthropic, not just for tokens, but for enterprise compute.”
Jason Calacanis Sep 4, 2026 ▶ 45:32 GPT-6 Hits AGI? Tech Euphoria 2.0, SF Mansion Shortage, NYC Bans AI in Schools & Venezuela Oil Deal
Sep 4, 2026 bullish
Prediction Open · timeframe Sep 2031
Chamath: Anthropic and OpenAI IPOs will fund over $500B in charity
“The interesting thing that's going to happen post the anthropic and open AI IPOs is if you think about the amount of charitable giving or DAFs that are going to be funded by both of these two IPOs, it's going to be north of half a trillion dollars between the …”
Chamath Palihapitiya Sep 4, 2026 ▶ 41:29 GPT-6 Hits AGI? Tech Euphoria 2.0, SF Mansion Shortage, NYC Bans AI in Schools & Venezuela Oil Deal
Sep 4, 2026 neutral
Assertion Supported
Sacks: AI agent accessed Hugging Face via 14 exposed public API keys
“No, the way it did it is that the agent found 14 exposed working hugging face API keys sitting in public code repositories.”
David Sacks Sep 4, 2026 ▶ 28:27 GPT-6 Hits AGI? Tech Euphoria 2.0, SF Mansion Shortage, NYC Bans AI in Schools & Venezuela Oil Deal
Sep 4, 2026 neutral
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Sacks: Anthropic and OpenAI will both roll out consumer bots
“I would assume that both Anthropic and OpenAI will eventually roll out Their own version of bots.”
David Sacks Sep 4, 2026 ▶ 6:50 GPT-6 Hits AGI? Tech Euphoria 2.0, SF Mansion Shortage, NYC Bans AI in Schools & Venezuela Oil Deal
Sep 4, 2026 neutral
Opinion
Sacks: The AI market is a duopoly of OpenAI and Anthropic
“There's two markets. There's the market for frontier intelligence, and that is a duopoly that really is anthropic and open AI. And it's good to see that that is still a horse race and they're competing. And then there's commodity intelligence, which is everybo…”
David Sacks Sep 4, 2026 ▶ 6:21 GPT-6 Hits AGI? Tech Euphoria 2.0, SF Mansion Shortage, NYC Bans AI in Schools & Venezuela Oil Deal
Sep 4, 2026 bullish
Assertion Supported
Calacanis: OpenAI's Polymarket odds for 2026 best model spiked above 20%
“The ratings here from Polymarket, which company has the best AI model, by the end of twenty-twenty-six, OpenAI's chances just spiked from low single digits now to over 20%.”
Jason Calacanis Sep 4, 2026 ▶ 7:09 GPT-6 Hits AGI? Tech Euphoria 2.0, SF Mansion Shortage, NYC Bans AI in Schools & Venezuela Oil Deal
Sep 4, 2026 neutral
Assertion Supported
Sacks: OpenAI agents reached the internet due to a misconfigured third-party sandbox
“And that's what happened here is that open AI was running these agents. They were in a sandbox. The sandbox was misconfigured by a third party vendor. That's why it was able to get onto the internet, ok?”
David Sacks Sep 4, 2026 ▶ 26:32 GPT-6 Hits AGI? Tech Euphoria 2.0, SF Mansion Shortage, NYC Bans AI in Schools & Venezuela Oil Deal
Sep 12, 2026 positive
Insight
Friedberg: AI is a leverage tool, not an incomprehensible super-intelligence
“AI is a tool of leverage. For humans. AI is not some magical genius super god that sits above us that understands things we don't understand. Every piece of the open AI message set that went back and forth between these agents is documented, can be read by peo…”
David Friedberg Sep 12, 2026 ▶ 1:00:47 AI Kills Everybody or Doomer Psyop? OpenAI’s Math Breakthrough, Nike’s $200B Collapse
Sep 12, 2026 negative
Opinion
Sacks: OpenAI is pursuing regulatory capture to secure a duopoly moat
“OpenAI, frankly, seems to be running an anthropic slipstream right now from a red capture standpoint. I don't think they're as doomer as anthropic, but they can see the benefit if the federal government effectively creates a moat that, you know, there's huge e…”
David Sacks Sep 12, 2026 ▶ 26:20 AI Kills Everybody or Doomer Psyop? OpenAI’s Math Breakthrough, Nike’s $200B Collapse
Sep 12, 2026 bearish
Insight
Sacks: Closed AI duopolies cannot be trusted with enterprise data
“I mean, I'm giving open AI the benefit of the doubt. I'm saying it's probably unfounded, but as long as we have a closed model duopoly of frontier AI, and they're reserving the right to get into every vertical application there is, they're declaring in advance…”
David Sacks Sep 12, 2026 ▶ 1:18:28 AI Kills Everybody or Doomer Psyop? OpenAI’s Math Breakthrough, Nike’s $200B Collapse
Sep 12, 2026 neutral
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Friedberg: OpenAI's math solution equaled tens of thousands of human work years
“What happened was the AI just did a bunch of brute force work to come up with this answer. And the work was done across many, many computers. 10,000 agents just means 10,000 applications running on a computer, talking back and forth to one another, sharing inf…”
David Friedberg Sep 12, 2026 ▶ 1:00:01 AI Kills Everybody or Doomer Psyop? OpenAI’s Math Breakthrough, Nike’s $200B Collapse
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