why aren't all 37 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Opinion
Sacks: Twitter's undisclosed moderation is an FTX-level free speech fraud
“This is an FTX level fraud, except that what was stolen here was not customer funds, it was their free speech rights.”
Opinion
Armstrong: Sam Bankman-Fried likely committed fraud and lied to FTX investors
“I mean, that that's the moment in my mind where he crossed the line into probably committing fraud. And I think he probably lied to users lied to investors.”
What-if
Cuban: FTX and 3AC would survive under Japanese crypto regulation
“If he had followed the same rules for crypto that Japan did, FTX would still be in business. Sam Bankman-Free might still be in jail, But FTX, three euros capital, they, they'd still be in business, because he did the wrong thing.”
Assertion Supported
Calacanis: Kevin O'Leary received $15 million to represent FTX
“Kevin O'Leary who calls himself Mr. Wonderful was on CNBC trying to defend the fact that he was given This is stunning, by the way, 15 fucking million dollars to be a spokesperson for FTX.”
Opinion
Calacanis: Investors and lack of governance are 99% responsible for FTX
“This was a failure of the investors and the governance for 99% of the problem, and then regulators should have caught it”
Assertion Supported
Sacks: Semafor framed FTX as bank run after taking SBF's money
“And then Semaphore, who was on the take, who received millions of dollars in his money, said it was a run on the bank.”
Disclosure
Chamath: FTX provided zero financials when Social Capital evaluated investing
“We were part of the process where they tried to show again, I have to be careful. My lawyers reminded me that we're still under NDA actually with FDX. So, but what I can tell you is we did not get any financials. So we were verbally described what was going on…”
Opinion
Sacks: House Republicans should investigate SBF and FTX before Hunter Biden
“The first investigation by the House of Representatives needs to be SBF and FTX, not Hunter Biden. SBF makes Hunter Biden look like a piker. I mean, you know, Hunter Biden was what? A couple million dollars of grift. This is ten billion dollars plus a grift.”
Opinion
Chamath: FTX's venture investors performed no due diligence whatsoever
“This list is a who's who of people who did no diligence whatsoever.”
Opinion
Chamath: VC firms did zero due diligence before investing in FTX
“There were an enormous number of venture firms that Hawk their way into just completely doing zero work here.”
Prediction Held up
Chamath: Regulators will investigate top VCs over unregulated token sales
“So if the SEC is really, and the DOJ is really going to take this FTT token issue seriously, and what happened to FTX? They're going to start to look at a bunch of other tokens and token sales, and you're going to end up looking at some very well-known venture…”
Assertion Supported
CZ: Binance fully exited FTX in July 2021, 18 months before collapse
“The deal was finalized and the transfer was done in July, 20, 21. And this is like a full year and a half before they had issues.”
Prediction Held up
Calacanis: SEC will increase crypto token prosecutions after FTX collapse
“And I think there'll be a subsequent domino to fall, which is Now that Gary G, head of the SEC, has FTX and the FTT tokens as the grift, he's gonna go down the list of other tokens and he is going to start doing more prosecutions of grifts in crypto.”
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Friedberg predicts SBF will be sentenced to multiple hundreds of years
“I think it's going to be a hundred multiple hundreds of years sentence i agree and you'll be gone for life”
Assertion Partly supported
Sacks: SBF lobbied regulators to ban Binance while licensing FTX
“SPF was trying to get Binance and competitors like that banned while SPF would be one of the sole people to get the license.”
Opinion
Sacks: Investors, regulators, and media share equal blame for FTX pre-exposure
“I would say that before the fraud got exposed, one third each before the fraud got exposed, but they were all jointly and severally liable.”
Assertion Supported
Sacks: Bankruptcy filing shows Alameda had FTX auto-liquidation disabled
“It was also the fact that, and this is from the bankruptcy filing by the new, the Enron trustee guy. He specifically said that Alameda, unlike every other margin account on the platform had the auto liquidation provisions turned off.”
Assertion Supported
Sacks: Sam Bankman-Fried secretly loaned himself $1B off the balance sheet
“He loaned himself, like, this is just one data point. He loaned himself a billion dollars, and he loaned the head of engineering, five hundred million dollars off the balance sheet.”
Opinion
Armstrong: Lack of US crypto regulation caused the FTX collapse
“And that lack of regulatory clarity, I believe has pushed a lot of this business offshore to these less regulated exchanges. That's part of what caused the blow up today.”
Assertion Partly supported
Chamath: Sequoia documented its $215M FTX investment on its website
“This was a two hundred and fifteen million dollar decision, and Sequoia documented it and put it on their own website.”
Assertion Supported
SEC Chair Atkins notes CFTC-regulated LedgerX protected customer funds during FTX collapse
“There was one part of FTX that didn't implode with the rest of it. And that was their investment in a swaps trading platform called ledger X was, which was supervised by the CFTC and examined and they had they had their accounts segregated and all that. So no …”
Assertion Partly supported
Friedberg: FTX bankruptcy trustee expects 100% payout to depositors
“In early February, the trustee said they now expect a hundred percent Payment back to the depositors and all the accounts and all the excess will go to the shareholders and FTX, all the preferred holders that invested in the stock.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Calacanis: Kevin O'Leary ruined his reputation defending FTX for $15M
“I go with Kevin O'Leary, who's secured a fifteen million dollar bag from FTX and then decided to try to defend it, ah, 18 ways to Sunday, burning whatever reputation he had.”
Assertion Partly supported
Chamath: Ellison and Wang engineered an FTX backdoor for Alameda
“They flipped, but it turns out that they actually did engineer a backdoor into FTX and Alameda has been doing this for years.”
Assertion Supported
Calacanis: FTX managed billions of dollars with no board of directors
“You cannot put a company like this, you know, in business with billions of dollars and have no board of directors.”
Disclosure
Armstrong told Binance CEO CZ that acquiring FTX was a bad idea
“And I spoke to CZ about why he was considering buying the asset. I thought it was a bad idea.”
Assertion Supported
Armstrong: FTX did about $1B in revenue in 2021
“At that time, FTX did about one billion in revenue.”
Assertion Supported
Armstrong: Coinbase customer funds are segregated and backed 1-to-1
“We're a public company. We're regulated. Our financial statements are audited. They can show that, you know, customer funds are segregated. They're backed one to one. We're not investing customer assets without their explicit direction.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Calacanis: Washington will harshly crack down on crypto after FTX
“They're going to drop the hammer because their constituents, some grandma and grandpa, or some people put their college education to this and lost everything.”
Assertion Supported
Sacks: FTX depositors will receive $16 per Solana token in bankruptcy
“If you had left your Solana at FTX, you're gonna get 16 dollars per token back, and that apparently was the price at the time that they went under.”
Opinion
Calacanis names FTX as the most loathsome company of 2022
“Most lowest some company is ftx”
Assertion Contradicted
Palihapitiya: No FTX or Alameda insider spoke out as a whistleblower
“Here where there was billions of dollars being made by tens of people, not a single person who felt on the outs said anything.”
Assertion Partly supported
Friedberg: SBF publicly admitted he and FTX staff took legal prescription drugs
“He admitted to it in an interview this week, he said that it was all legal prescription drugs, but they were taking them, yes.”
Assertion Supported
Armstrong: Coinbase had no material exposure to FTX, Alameda, or FTT
“And I again, just for the sake of clarity, I should say that Coinbase did not have any material exposure to Alameda FTX or FTT token.”
Assertion Supported
Calacanis: FTX selling majority Anthropic stake for $884 million
“FTX is also selling the majority of its stake in Anthropic. For eight hundred eighty four million to Mubadala, the sovereign, one of the sovereign wealth funds from the UAE, and other investors”
Assertion Supported
Calacanis: FTX lost $8B for customers, $1.7B for investors, $1.3B for lenders
“FTX customers lost eight billion, investors lost 1.7 billion, and lenders lost 1.3 billion.”
Assertion Supported
Friedberg: FTX left up a video of SBF quantitative trading on Binance
“For some reason FTX has left up all of their videos on YouTube from three years ago called quantitative trading seven and a half thousand cell wall of Bitcoin on Binance. It's a 17 and a half minute YouTube video of SBF trading arbitrage across markets.”