why aren't all 11 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 1 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Assertion Supported
Lutnick: TSMC agreed to increase US investment from $60B to $160B
“So instead of building sixty billion, you build a hundred and sixty billion. And we agreed.”
Prediction Open · timeframe Sep 2026
Chamath: US will deploy troops to defend TSMC when China invades Taiwan
“They will invade at Taiwan. I've said this before, but I think that they will, and we will have no choice except to deploy troops into Taiwan, because in the absence of the silicon that we need from TSMC and a couple of other manufacturers there, we have zero …”
Opinion
Haas: US has lost muscle memory for 24/7 semiconductor manufacturing
“TSMC is a twenty-four-seven operation where if a line goes down or a customer's got a problem, not only are the technicians need to be ready to go, the engineers need to be ready to go, and that is something that, ah, I think we've lost the muscle memory insid…”
Insight
Haas: TSMC's compounding manufacturing advantage makes catching up nearly impossible
“Once you fall behind in chips, it's very, very difficult to catch up because the cycle gets on top of you. TSMC now has the best fabs in the world. The leading edge companies, Apple, Nvidia, AMD, they all build a TSMC. TSMC gets better at what they're building…”
Assertion Supported
Sacks: TSMC produced three million chips for Huawei Ascend 910C processors
“For example, last year, there was a case where TSMC was discovered to have produced something like three million chips that went into the Huawei Ascend nine, 10 C chips.”
Assertion Supported
Gelsinger: TSMC produces seven times as many semiconductor wafers as Intel
“Five to one, and now it's more like seven to one in terms of wafers, you know, to TSMC to Intel.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Bessent: TSMC's Arizona fab system could supply 7% of US chips
“TSMC wants to build a gigantic fab system in Arizona, and I think it might be able to, Produce up to seven percent of the chips that the United States needs, and they're dealing with local building inspectors.”
Assertion Supported
Lisa Su: AMD produced its first 4nm chips at TSMC Arizona
“We've been very early in Arizona with TSMC, and we did get our first chips out they're actually four nanometer”
Opinion
Gracias: Offshoring US chip manufacturing to TSMC was a terrible idea
“TSMC basically took the many, this idea of outsourcing manufacturing assets that Intel did with TSMC in the beginning, Created that business and moved most of our high technology and chips off and offshore into Taiwan. This is like a terrible idea.”
Assertion Supported
Calacanis: Trump announced $100B TSMC investment in American fabs
“Then at 2:38 PM, Trump announces a hundred billion dollar investment from TSMC in American fabs.”
Assertion Supported
Sacks: 70% of advanced semiconductor chips come from Taiwan
“70% of the advanced chips come out of Taiwan, companies like TSMC.”