why aren't all 16 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 1 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Prediction Open · timeframe Oct 2028
Gerstner: AMD could capture $150B incremental revenue from OpenAI deal
“If it works, she's going to get a hundred and fifty billion of incremental revenue just from open AI, right? For building out five gigawatts.”
Opinion
Calacanis: OpenAI will effectively receive AMD GPUs for free
“And with that massive increase in their stock price, Brad, I think this means that OpenAI is going to get a lot of GPUs essentially for free.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Baker: Exporting Nvidia H20 chips deters China from creating rival AI accelerators
“It's a smart decision for America to sell this chip that gives America an advantage in AI and keeps China from developing kind of their own domestic alternatives, which could eventually kind of challenge, you know, Nvidia, AMD, you know, other kind of American…”
Assertion Supported
Chamath: OpenAI is diversifying inference hardware across AMD, Nvidia, and Cerebras
“What I can tell you is that OpenAI is aggressively trying to diversify so that they have multiple paths Of inference available. They have a huge deal with AMD. They have a huge deal with Nvidia. They now have a huge deal with Cerebris.”
Disclosure
Tareq Amin: Humain has partnered with AMD, Groq, Nvidia, and Qualcomm
“So if you see our partnership that we have done with AMD, with a startup called Grog NVIDIA, Qualcomm. It shows you clearly our commitment to this relationship and partnership, and it's really deep.”
Assertion Partly supported
Gerstner: Nvidia captured nearly 100% of incremental AI data center revenues
“In twenty-twenty-two, two and a half years ago, NVIDIA and AMD had basically the same revenue, twenty-five billion dollars, right? This year, NVIDIA will do 10 X that at roughly, you know, 210, two hundred and thirty billion dollars, and AMD will do thirty-thr…”
Assertion Supported
Jason Calacanis: AMD granted OpenAI warrants for 160M shares
“AMD granted OpenAI warrants And that's interesting for up to a hundred and sixty million shares or 10% of the companies.”
Assertion Supported
Calacanis claims OpenAI committed to 6 gigawatts of AMD GPUs
“OpenAI committed to purchasing six gigawatts worth of AMD's next-gen GPUs.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Su: AMD's Arizona fab chip yields match its Taiwan yields
“We've been super impressed with the progress, and, you know, if we look at the main thing that we look at is, you know, yields and just how many chips do we get out on a given wafer, and I would say it's equivalent between what we get in Taiwan and what we get…”
Assertion Supported
Lisa Su: AMD produced its first 4nm chips at TSMC Arizona
“We've been very early in Arizona with TSMC, and we did get our first chips out they're actually four nanometer”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Gracias: US industrial policy is needed to reshore Intel and AMD manufacturing
“I think actually it's going to require industrial policy to force people like Intel, AMD to want to bring stuff back into the U.S., and to really get great talent to want to do it.”
Assertion Supported
Feldman: Intel and AMD captured zero market share in mobile chip compute
“Share changed when cell phone compute emerged, and Intel and AMD who had fabs and the best architects got zero share, and it all moved to ARM.”
Disclosure
Friar: OpenAI uses Cerebras, pipeline AMD chips, and custom Broadcom silicon
“But we also now have chips in the pipeline from AMD. Cerebrus is already online. It's been an incredible low latency chip. Great for devs, for example, that want real time coding. And there's our own chip that we're working on with Broadcom.”
Assertion Supported
Lisa Su: AMD's MI355 chip has 185B transistors and takes nine months
“It's our MI-tri-fifty-five chip. One hundred and eighty-five billion transistors. Takes about nine months to build.”
Assertion Supported
Chamath: 13Fs show hedge funds and family offices long Nvidia and AMD
“And it turns out if you look at their 13 Fs, they're all long NVIDIA and AMD.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Lisa Su: AMD decisions take five-plus years to play out
“The decisions we're making will take, you know, five plus years to play out.”