why aren't all 25 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Assertion Partly supported
Samani: Solana can process over one billion daily transactions under a penny each
“Modern blockchains like Solana can actually process now more than a billion transactions in a day at an average cost of less than a penny per transaction.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Samani: Tens of thousands of streamers trade with fans daily on Solana
“There are today tens of thousands of streamers all over the world streaming content and trading with their fans and their audience members, and this is happening every day on Solana.”
Disclosure
Yakovenko: Solana spent $2M of $14M raised on US legal fees
“We raised a seed in A-Round. It was about fourteen million bucks, which is amazing. It was, you know, like, outright crazy success for a new, a first-time founder. I had to spend two million of that on lawyer fees. Which is a more than 10% of my runway to figu…”
Opinion
Yakovenko: Execution is where money is made in blockchain
“Execution is where all the money's made, so I think we're on the right track, and a fast execution engine can also do settlement.”
Opinion
Yakovenko: Solana is world's execution layer, Ethereum is settlement layer
“Ethereum being world settlement layer, Solana is the world's execution layer.”
Assertion Supported
Sacks: FTX depositors are not being made whole in real value
“The point is that he's selling tokens at current prices, call it one 88, and then using that to pay off depositors at 16 dollars. So the only reason the depositors have been quote unquote made whole is because they're getting the benefit of this run up, but th…”
Disclosure
Sacks: Craft Ventures holds indirect exposure to $1B in Solana
“Kraft is the beneficiary because we invest, we're the first investors in multi coin. We were kind of like their seed investor invested in there. We put in something like 40% of the money for their special opportunity fund. They were one of the first investors …”
Disclosure
Chamath: I have not sold a single Solana token
“I haven't sold a single Solana token.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Sacks: Craft's Solana exposure will yield around $1B in returns
“It will end up being about, you know, a billion dollars of, I think Solana for us in terms of returns, but it's the multi-coin guys determine the trading decisions on that.”
Assertion Partly supported
Chamath: Solana projects seeded with millions reached $60B-$80B market caps
“Most of the projects on Solana, they're seeded with a few million dollars, and these are 60, eighty billion dollar market cap projects.”
Assertion Supported
Samani: GEODNET uses 80% of its revenue to buy back tokens
“So today the GeoNet network is taking, of that eleven million in revenue, roughly excuse me, 80% of it is being used to make open market purchases of Geo tokens. And this is all visible on the Solana blockchain. They have all the addresses are published and st…”
Disclosure
Yakovenko: Solana will never build an exchange onboarding US institutional clients
“We're never going to build an exchange that is onboarding U.S. Institutionals and serving U.S. Customers. We want NASDAQ to do that and to run it on Solana, and that would be great.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Yakovenko: Nasdaq would make more money running a Solana node
“If we succeed, if the protocol is awesome and globally synchronous and super fast, Nasdaq would make more money by just running a Solana node and integrating with it more directly.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Sacks: Solana could flip Ethereum even during a crypto bust
“So you could have a situation in which, for example, Solana flips ETH and yet still goes down in value because there's an overall bust cycle.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
JCal: Solana paid corporate tax on its $300M-$400M token sale
“When they sold their three or four hundred million tokens to fund the company, because they consider them utility tokens, not shares, they paid taxes on it.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Sacks: Silicon Valley smart money is betting Solana overtakes Ethereum
“It's an Ethereum competitor, basically, for, you know, smart contract platform, and there's a lot of people, I'd say smart money in Silicon Valley, who are betting on a flippening where Solana could ultimately overtake Ethereum as the preferred platform.”
Disclosure
Yakovenko: Initial Solana calculations showed 1,000x speed vs Ethereum
“When I had my kind of eureka moment and I did the back of the envelope calculation for design, I'm like, oh, this is a thousand times faster than ETH.”
Assertion Supported
Sacks: FTX depositors will receive $16 per Solana token in bankruptcy
“If you had left your Solana at FTX, you're gonna get 16 dollars per token back, and that apparently was the price at the time that they went under.”
Assertion Partly supported
Sacks: SBF's seed investments in Anthropic and Solana were worth billions
“He made a seed investment in Anthropik that's worth billions now. He made a seed investment in Solana that I think is worth billions now, especially now that Solana has recovered.”
Assertion Supported
Sacks: Solana increased roughly 10x in 2023 from $9 to $92
“It began the year at about nine dollars a token. It's now at 92 as of this moment. Obviously it's very volatile, but it's up roughly 10 X this year to date.”
Disclosure
Sacks: Craft Ventures has not sold its Solana holdings
“I can tell you right now, like this second, we are sitting on Solana that we have not sold.”
Disclosure
Sacks: Craft invested $1M at a $20M valuation to seed Multicoin
“We actually invested, we gave them a million bucks at a 20 cap to help set up their firm, and then we invested in their, they had both a venture fund and a hedge fund, and they were, like, the first money into Solana”
Opinion
Sacks: Paying tax upfront on token sales smartly establishes corporate sales
“I think it's really smart to pay the tax upfront to establish that this is a corporate sale.”
Assertion Supported
Calacanis: Cardano, XRP, and Solana surged following Trump crypto reserve post
“Cardona ripped 70%. XRP 32%. Solana 25%.”
Assertion Supported
Sacks: Solana's daily trading volume is around $3.5B notional
“The market for Solana is very deep, about three and a half billion notional is traded every day.”