why aren't all 9 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Disclosure
Uber Gave Cities 30 Days To Enforce Lyft Regulations Before Launching
“Each and every city we went to, we would send, we would wait for Lyft to launch. And then we would basically say to the city, we'd send them a letter saying, there's this really cool thing called ride sharing. This company called Lyft is doing it. We think it'…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Chamath: Tesla would dominate ride-hailing if it cuts prices
“So if Tesla enters in as a third player in that field and just guts pricing, which I think would make sense for them to do, I think this thing is just gangbusters nuclear.”
Assertion Supported
Friedberg notes Waymo captured 22% of the San Francisco rideshare market
“Waymo launched in SF in August, 20, 23 in kind of an open market way. Uber and Lyft were 66 and 34% market share at the time. And in 15 months in November of 2024, Waymo is now a 22% market share of rides in SF, which is the same as Lyft and Uber is now down t…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Chamath: Uber and Lyft profitability relies on raising prices
“Uber and Lyft seemingly are profitable because they find pricing power to raise prices.”
Opinion
Gerstner: Lyft's management lost the script spending $48M on California Prop 30
“Spending 40 to fifty million dollars on this, it just seems that they've totally lost the script. The company has way bigger problems to focus on, right, than, you know, this measure.”
Insight
Friar: Markets reward long-term durability over being first to IPO
“In the end, the market is a weighing machine, not a popularity machine. No one remembers who went first, Google or Yahoo, Lyft or Uber”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Sacks: Uber beats Lyft primarily because passenger wait times are lower
“This is why Uber is beating Lyft is, oh, and the wait time is lower.”
Assertion Supported
Calacanis: Lyft provided nearly all $48M in funding for California Prop 30
“Lyft has provided almost all of the 40, almost forty eight million in funding for this prop 30.”
Assertion Partly supported
Calacanis: Lyft and Uber report driver shortages are over
“Lyft and Uber are reporting that the driver shortages are over. They no longer have to pay people spiffs and stuff like that to get people to come back to work.”