The Ledger

Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.

clear all ✕

why aren't all 5 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable

Assertion Not checkable as stated
Raboy: WhatsApp is the only M&A exit to return a major fund
“You don't drive returns in venture to an institutional venture capital fund through an M&A. Like WhatsApp may be the only one that really drove a fund returning exit to a serious fund.”
Keith Rabois Dec 13, 2024 ▶ 1:13:37 Trump's Cabinet, Google's Quantum Chip, Apple's Flop, TikTok, State of VC
What-if
Chamath: Meta acquiring WhatsApp for $17B could never happen today
“Today, that could never happen.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Dec 23, 2023 ▶ 45:09 E158: Global trade disrupted, Adobe/Figma canceled, realtors sued, Trump blocked
Insight
Sacks: WhatsApp's massive VC returns resulted from capital efficiency and low dilution
“The reason WhatsApp was a home run is because it was so capital efficient. They didn't burn that much. They didn't raise that much. So there's very little dilution for everybody.”
David Sacks Sep 22, 2023 ▶ 45:13 E146: Did the Fed break the VC model? Plus IPOs, M&A, revaluing unicorns & more
Prediction Partly held up
Gerstner: Meta will launch major AI models and agents within six weeks
“Over the next four to six weeks. They're going to have massive launches out of the AI side of the business. I expect a lot more support for their open AI model or for their open LLM. I also think they're going to launch a bunch of agents on WhatsApp and Instag…”
Brad Gerstner Jul 9, 2023 ▶ 8:00 E136: Hacking the pod, Threads launches, Fed minutes, immigration, balloon farce, heart health
Assertion Partly supported
Calacanis: Sequoia Capital led four consecutive preemptive rounds in WhatsApp
“Well, everybody learned from WhatsApp. And you know, shout out to the Sequoia team. Doug Leone, I think. And they did every round. Jim gets to know. Yeah. They did every round. So it was an internal round for, I think, four rounds in a row. So they just made p…”
Jason Calacanis Sep 22, 2023 ▶ 44:58 E146: Did the Fed break the VC model? Plus IPOs, M&A, revaluing unicorns & more
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