The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 15 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 1 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Chamath values Arm at $15B to $20B, missing IPO expectations
“And so I think this is a very tough valuation to get right. And trying to stretch to a 60 or seventy billion dollar print, I think is really tough. This is a Honestly, a 15 to twenty billion dollar company.”
Haas: Physical AI chip market will surpass data center volume
“Yeah, I think so because I think they're gonna, today, they largely use repurposed automotive chips, right? Things that have functional safety compliance around ADAS, but they're not specific for actuators or specific for smaller parts of the joint. So, physic…”
Haas: Restricting chip access will force foreign nations to build parallel ecosystems
“If you shut off supply of a computing architecture into other parts of the world, what will happen? Certain parts of the world that have the capabilities, either in terms of people, technology innovation, they will find a way and they will find a way around, a…”
Haas: Arm is considering expanding beyond its traditional IP licensing model
“I hinted in the last conference call that we're looking at going a little bit further than we do today.”
Friedberg: Arm's IPO is forced with little pent-up demand
“This arm thing is, you know, pretty forced. It seems it's not like there's a ton of pent up public demand to buy these arm shares.”
Chamath Palihapitiya estimates Arm is worth no more than $25 billion
“It's a mid twenties billion dollar company. No more.”
Haas: China's software ecosystem still mirrors Western platform standards
“Now today the China ecosystem actually follows the global ecosystem which is good from the standpoint that every mobile phone in China, it doesn't run Google Android, but it runs a version of Android, and it leverages the app ecosystem that comes off of Androi…”
Haas: Intel competition drove Nvidia's early pivot to Arm architecture
“That was the genesis of starting to pivot to ARM in a very big way inside NVIDIA, because at that time, Jensen looked at what was going on with SoCs and ARM-based architecture and moved everybody on to the SoC program.”
Haas: Arm is hiring fewer finance and legal workers due to AI
“Our business is not one yet where I can say I'm hiring less people because of AI. I'm certainly hiring less finance people and legal people.”
Chamath: Arm's stock surge was driven by an enormous short squeeze
“Now on Arm specifically, the thing that I would keep in mind is that those guys floated, I think about fifteen million shares. So there's about a hundred and forty-five, hundred and fifty million shares outstanding, 90% owned by them. So there's about 10 or fi…”
Feldman: Intel and AMD captured zero market share in mobile chip compute
“Share changed when cell phone compute emerged, and Intel and AMD who had fabs and the best architects got zero share, and it all moved to ARM.”
Haas: Nvidia is an Arm customer rather than a direct competitor
“NVIDIA is a customer of ours, so I'm not gonna say Jensen is my competitor today.”
Calacanis: Instacart, Klaviyo, and Arm floated under 10% in IPOs
“Instacart's float was 6.7%, and Klaviyo's float 7.6. Arms float almost hit the 10%, 9.4”