AlphaFold

also referred to as: alpha fold

includes AlphaFold 3, AlphaFold 2, AlphaFold III, AlphaFold Three

11 statements across 7 episodes · 8 bullish · 2 bearish · 3 people on the record · first statement Dec 4, 2020 by David Friedberg · said 74 times in 20 episodes since 2020 · across every show →

Mentions by year, the whole family

brought up most by David Friedberg (33), Jason Calacanis (16), Chamath Palihapitiya (15), Demis Hassabis (6), Sundar Pichai (1), Sergey Brin (1)

tap a year for its mentions
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2026 4 mentions in 1 episode
2025 9 mentions in 2 episodes 5 per episode
2024 16 mentions in 3 episodes 5 per episode
2023 4 mentions in 3 episodes 1 per episode
2022 12 mentions in 6 episodes 2 per episode
2021 10 mentions in 3 episodes 3 per episode
2020 19 mentions in 2 episodes 10 per episode

every mention, scene by scene, with the transcript →

Everything said about AlphaFold, oldest first

Dec 4, 2020 bullish
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Friedberg: 50 protein-folding startups will be funded in 12-18 months
“I think we're within, within one year, J. Cal, of a lot of startups replicating this alpha fold technique, and then using that to go do drug discovery, and you'll see 50 startups getting funded 12 to 18 months from now based on some novel protein idea.”
David Friedberg Dec 4, 2020 ▶ 46:12 E14: Salesforce acquires Slack, DeepMind’s AlphaFold breakthrough, Trust Fund Socialists & more
Dec 4, 2020 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Friedberg: AlphaFold will significantly extend human lifespan through drug discovery
“And the output of that is going to be an incredible new tool for drug discovery that is going to extend human lifespan in an incredible way.”
David Friedberg Dec 4, 2020 ▶ 1:24:45 E14: Salesforce acquires Slack, DeepMind’s AlphaFold breakthrough, Trust Fund Socialists & more
Dec 4, 2020 positive
Prediction Held up
Friedberg predicts competitors will replicate DeepMind's AlphaFold within 24 months
“It's an inevitability that in the next couple of 24 months, someone else will replicate this.”
David Friedberg Dec 4, 2020 ▶ 41:00 E14: Salesforce acquires Slack, DeepMind’s AlphaFold breakthrough, Trust Fund Socialists & more
Dec 4, 2020 positive
Assertion Supported
Friedberg: AlphaFold accuracy matches experimental microscopic measurement precision
“And the accuracy of their predictive model now is within the range of error of the microscopes that are being used to actually scan and measure those proteins.”
David Friedberg Dec 4, 2020 ▶ 31:31 E14: Salesforce acquires Slack, DeepMind’s AlphaFold breakthrough, Trust Fund Socialists & more
Dec 18, 2020 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Friedberg: AlphaFold is biology's ARPANET moment that will transform medicine
“AlphaFold feels to me like what ARPANET was, which was the origins of the internet, you know back when it was first installed, and no one really Kind of grappled with the ramifications of what would emerge. And I think, you know, once we have the ability to de…”
David Friedberg Dec 18, 2020 ▶ 39:38 E15: “The Besties” All-In’s inaugural award show covering the best, worst & most memorable of 2020
Jun 30, 2022 positive
Insight
Friedberg: AlphaFold solving nuclear pore structure unlocks huge therapeutic opportunities
“This is an incredible example of how AlphaFold's been used to solve this really misunderstood or never really well understood aspect of biology that is at the root cause of so much of disease and creates all this opportunity for medicine and therapeutics, rese…”
David Friedberg Jun 30, 2022 ▶ 1:33:37 E85: SBF's crypto bailout, Zendesk sells for ~$10B, buyout targets, US diplomacy, AlphaFold & more
Jun 30, 2022 positive
Assertion Partly supported
Friedberg: Harvard study combined X-ray imaging and AlphaFold to map nuclear pore complex
“What this team at Harvard did that they published two weeks ago is a really groundbreaking, extremely detailed view of the entire nuclear comp, nuclear pore complex, Around the nucleus of the cell by combining both x-ray imaging and alpha fold.”
David Friedberg Jun 30, 2022 ▶ 1:30:30 E85: SBF's crypto bailout, Zendesk sells for ~$10B, buyout targets, US diplomacy, AlphaFold & more
Sep 1, 2022 negative
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Palihapitiya: Medicare price caps will force pharma to replace scientists with AI
“If CMS and Medicare go and really crunch those costs, what is pharma going to do? Well, pharma is going to do what is the obvious thing, which is like, if you're going to cap what I can make, I have to completely change my R and D model. And they're just going…”
Chamath Palihapitiya Sep 1, 2022 ▶ 39:22 E94: NFT volume plummets, California's overreach, FBI meddling, climate change & national security
Jan 13, 2023 negative
Opinion
Chamath: Meta's recent protein-folding AI model is not that good
“I mean, Facebook released this kind of like rando version of alpha fold recently. It's not that good.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Jan 13, 2023 ▶ 43:51 E111: Microsoft to invest $10B in OpenAI, generative AI hype, America's over-classification problem
Oct 11, 2024 positive
Assertion Supported
Friedberg: DeepMind's protein modeling led to dozens of startups and billions invested
“And there have been literally dozens of companies that have been started since DeepMind was published, and probably several billion dollars of capital that's gone into companies that are creating new drugs, creating new industrial biotech applications, using t…”
David Friedberg Oct 11, 2024 ▶ 33:08 Hurricane fallout, AlphaFold, Google breakup, Trump surge, VC giveback, TikTok survey
Sep 12, 2025
Assertion Supported
Hassabis: AlphaFold is a hybrid model incorporating physics and chemistry rules
“So AlphaFold itself is a hybrid model where you have the learning component, this probabilistic component you're talking about, which is, you know, based on neural networks and transformers and things, and that's learning from the data you give it you know, an…”
Demis Hassabis Sep 12, 2025 ▶ 26:53 Inside Google DeepMind: AGI, Robotics, & World Models Explained - Demis Hassabis
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