The Ledger

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why aren't all 1 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable

Prediction Partly held up
Chamath: Government IDs will be required to use advanced AI models
“If you have to put in your driver's license to buy fertilizer, you're sure as will have to put in your driver's license to use Fable Five, which is the precursor to know how to use fertilizer to make the bomb.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Jun 19, 2026 ▶ 49:29 World's First Trillionaire, Anthropic Fable Banned, The New Oligarchs, Iran Peace Deal
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