why aren't all 7 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 1 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Opinion
Chamath: Apple licensing Google Gemini signals giving up on in-house AI
“I think it's them giving up. This is the most consequential new development in technology and compute in probably 20 years, 30 years.”
Assertion Supported
Lafont: ChatGPT maintains over 80% market share against AI rivals
“It really is a dominant kind of franchise, right? It is maintaining 80% plus market share.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Calacanis: Open-source AI will win as users reject biased proprietary models
“You know who the big winner is going to be in all of this? Chamath is going to be open source. Like, cause people are just not going to want a model that has all this baked in weird bias, right? They're going to want something that's open source.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Calacanis: Gemini refused simple queries about political legal cases
“I just asked it a couple of times to just to list the legal cases against Trump, the legal cases against Hunter Biden, the legal cases against president Biden, and it will not just list them. It just punts on that. It's really fascinating. Then chat GPT is lik…”
Opinion
Calacanis: Google Gemini has reached parity with and exceeded OpenAI
“Gemini was beating that hands down for me. And I think he conceded that with their free model and their 20 dollar model, if we just gave it decent prompts, I think Google now has reached parity and they have an app out. Freeburg, what are your thoughts? Becaus…”
Opinion
Sacks asserts reports of Apple licensing Google Gemini cannot be true
“The story can't be true because it'd be so strategically dumb. Like Jamas said, even if Google Gemini were great, you'd still want to invest in having your own thing because it's such a strategic technology. Why would you ever outsource it to your main competi…”
Prediction Open · timeframe Dec 2029
Friedberg: Google Gemini will eventually offer an ad-supported tier
“I think you'll end up having a Gemini that Has ads, eventually. And you could pay and have no ads, or you could not pay and have ads.”