Microsoft
includes Microsoft Azure, Microsoft Excel, Microsoft Teams, Microsoft Windows, Microsoft Office, Microsoft Copilot, Microsoft PowerPoint, Microsoft Bing, Microsoft 365, Microsoft Word, Microsoft SharePoint, Microsoft AI and 9 more
92 statements across 60 episodes · 37 bullish · 28 bearish · 19 people on the record · first statement Dec 4, 2020 by David Sacks · said 1,014 times in 224 episodes since 2020 · across every show →
Mentions by year, the whole family
brought up most by Jason Calacanis (413), Chamath Palihapitiya (246), David Sacks (127), David Friedberg (97), Satya Nadella (17), Gavin Baker (14), Thomas Laffont (12), Brad Gerstner (11)
tap a year for its mentions
2026 187 mentions in 38 episodes 5 per episode
- Satya Nadella on AI’s Business Revolution: What Happens to SaaS, OpenAI, and Microsoft?
- Google’s AI Brain Drain, SpaceX's Huge Quarter, Airtable’s 90% Collapse, US Data Fuels China AI
- OpenAI Misses Targets, Codex vs Claude, Elon vs Sam Trial, Big Hyperscaler Beats, Peptide Craze
- Elon’s Anthropic Deal, The Next AI Monopoly?, “FDA for AI” Panic, Trading the AI Boom
- AI Sovereignty Wars, Palantir-Nvidia Deal, SCOTUS Birthright Ruling, Newsom’s CA Budget Lie
- Nvidia's Historic Quarter, SaaS Comeback, Bessent vs Druck, America's Debt Crisis, Cancer Vaccine
- World's First Trillionaire, Anthropic Fable Banned, The New Oligarchs, Iran Peace Deal
- Mark Cuban on the AI Bubble: Who Actually Gets Wiped Out?
- 30 more episodes that year, every mention in 2026 →
2025 159 mentions in 43 episodes 4 per episode
- IPOs and SPACs are Back, Mag 7 Showdown, Zuck on Tilt, Apple's Fumble, GENIUS Act passes Senate
- OpenAI's Code Red, Sacks vs New York Times, New Poverty Line?
- DeepSeek Panic, US vs China, OpenAI $40B?, and Doge Delivers with Travis Kalanick and David Sacks
- 2025 Predictions: Tech, Business, Media, Politics!
- NBA Gambling Scandal, Billionaire Tax, Tesla's Future, Amazon Robots, AWS Outage, Dangerous AI Bias
- JD Vance's AI Speech, Techno-Optimists vs Doomers, Tariffs, AI Court Cases with Naval Ravikant
- Epstein Files Fallout, Nvidia Risks, Burry's Bad Bet, Google's Breakthrough, Tether's Boom
- Does OpenAI Need a Bailout? Mamdani Wins, Socialism Rising, Filibuster Nuclear Option
- 35 more episodes that year, every mention in 2025 →
2024 247 mentions in 44 episodes 6 per episode
- Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
- E171: DOJ sues Apple, AI arms race, Reddit IPO, Realtor settlement & more
- In conversation with Reid Hoffman & Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
- E169: Elon sues OpenAI, Apple's decline, TikTok ban, Bitcoin $100K?, Science corner: Microplastics
- Break up Google, Starbucks CEO out, Kamala’s price controls, Boeing disaster, Kursk offensive
- OpenAI's $150B conversion, Meta's AR glasses, Blue-collar boom, Risk of nuclear war
- Yen Carry Trade, Recession odds grow, Buffett cash pile, Google ruled monopoly, Kamala picks Walz
- New SEC Chair, Bitcoin, xAI Supercomputer, UnitedHealth CEO murder, with Gavin Baker & Joe Lonsdale
- 36 more episodes that year, every mention in 2024 →
2023 217 mentions in 41 episodes 5 per episode
- E113: DOJ tries to break up Google, vaccine questions, Ukraine escalation & more
- E115: The AI Search Wars: Google vs. Microsoft, Nordstream report, State of the Union
- E137: Inflation cools, market rips, Ripple/MSFT beat regulators, NATO summit, cocktails of youth
- E126: Big Tech blow-out, Powell’s recession warning, lab-grown meat, RFK Jr shakes up race & more
- E111: Microsoft to invest $10B in OpenAI, generative AI hype, America's over-classification problem
- E159: The Bestie Awards! Recapping the best and worst of 2023
- E156: Ivy League antisemitism, macro, SaaS recovery, Gemini, Figma deal delay + big Friedberg update
- E116: Toxic out-of-control trains, regulators, and AI
- 33 more episodes that year, every mention in 2023 →
2022 105 mentions in 29 episodes 4 per episode
- E96: Adobe acquires Figma for $20B, TPB SPAC, FedEx CEO's recession warning, macro picture & more
- E64: Antitrust standards & enforcement, tech repricing, lab leak obfuscation, E63 reactions & more
- E66: $FB's big drop, Rogan/Spotify mess, Xi/Putin meetup & supply chain issues with Ryan Petersen
- E67: Revisiting Rogan, Canadian truckers' protest, fusion breakthrough, $MSFT's savvy move & more
- E109: 2022 Bestie Awards Live from Twitter HQ
- E100: Reflecting on the first 100 shows, fan questions, nuclear threat, markets, Amazon & more
- E92: Adam Neumann's second act, a16z's $350M bet, housing policy, Inflation Reduction Act & more
- E85: SBF's crypto bailout, Zendesk sells for ~$10B, buyout targets, US diplomacy, AlphaFold & more
- 21 more episodes that year, every mention in 2022 →
2021 76 mentions in 21 episodes 4 per episode
- E54: Spread trading big tech, capital allocation, Zillow's misfire, Progressives suffer losses
- E50: Crypto investing deep dive, Facebook's whistleblower fallout, Chappelle's new special & more
- E53: Wealth tax, inflation as a capital allocator, big tech earnings, paternity leave & more
- E27: The Great Inflation Debate, Amazon gets spicy on Twitter, rethinking supply chains & more
- E37: NYC rejects far-left candidates, new developments in lab leak theory, App Store breakup & more
- E60: The 2021 Bestie Awards PLUS Jack Dorsey starts the Web3 Wars
- E45: Theranos & VC fraud risks, China bans video games, Texas SB8, Apple app store, CA fires, Rogan
- E58: November's CPI, preparing for a downturn, macro outlook, Better.com's botched layoffs & more
- 13 more episodes that year, every mention in 2021 →
2020 23 mentions in 8 episodes 3 per episode
- E14: Salesforce acquires Slack, DeepMind’s AlphaFold breakthrough, Trust Fund Socialists & more
- E6: Big Tech antitrust aftermath, potential effects of an M&A clampdown on Silicon Valley & more
- E3: Modern Cold War, politicizing the pandemic & more with David Sacks & David Friedberg
- E4: Politicizing the pandemic, Police reform, Twitter vs Facebook with David Sacks & David Friedberg
- E9: Trump has COVID, First debate reactions, Coinbase letter response & more
- E8: TikTok + Oracle, how privacy loss will impact society, economy & COVID outlooks for 2021
- E2: Rebooting economy, understanding corporate debt, avoiding a depression & more with David Sacks
- E0: COVID-19 Political, Economic & Social Ramifications featuring David Friedberg
- every mention in 2020, scene by scene →
Everything said about Microsoft, oldest first
Dec 4, 2020 positive
Oct 9, 2021 negative
Chamath: DOJ feature oversight caused Microsoft to miss a compute wave
“My understanding was like Microsoft had to submit feature reviews to lawyers at the DOJ. Who would then approve, you know, updates and upgrades to their code base for things like windows. That's what caused them to miss an entire wave of compute.”
Oct 9, 2021 bearish
Oct 30, 2021 positive
Oct 30, 2021 bullish
Nov 6, 2021 bullish
Nov 6, 2021 bearish
Palihapitiya: Microsoft entering Notion's market will succeed with 80% feature parity
“This past week, Microsoft decided to go after Notion, and it's going to be, I think, a very similar story where, you know, once they decide to sort of go after this product experience, they only need to be 80% as good. And then the distribution and bundling an…”
Nov 6, 2021 negative
Jan 8, 2022 positive
Jan 22, 2022 bullish
Chamath predicts Microsoft's $68B acquisition of Activision Blizzard will close
“I still think this Microsoft Activision deal on balance gets done, because if you take the absolute values away from it, The reality is that it's an adjacent part of Microsoft's core business, and there's nothing fundamentally monopolistic about what would hap…”
Jan 22, 2022 neutral
Sacks: Politicians scrutinize enterprise software far less than consumer tech
“I think a lot of that has to do with the fact that Microsoft's effectively pivoted, with the exception of this gaming, into being an enterprise software company, and the politicians just care a lot less about enterprise software.”
Feb 5, 2022 bullish
Feb 5, 2022 positive
Feb 12, 2022 bullish
Feb 12, 2022 positive
Chamath: Microsoft's open app store strategy will pressure Apple and Google
“And I think this is a first step towards a really interesting play that Microsoft could pull, which is essentially to scorch the earth of app stores, which is Google's and Apple's really big money printer to make a completely open permissible platform with ver…”
May 13, 2022 bearish
May 13, 2022 neutral
May 13, 2022 neutral
Chamath: Facebook took a 40% valuation haircut during the 2008 crisis
“I remember we raised money from Microsoft at a 15.3 billion dollar valuation. The great financial crisis took hold and Mark to his credit reset the valuation. We were already profitable, so we didn't necessarily need to raise that money, but we, I think we rai…”
Jun 7, 2022
Aug 20, 2022 positive
Sep 17, 2022
Sep 17, 2022 negative
Dec 24, 2022 bullish
Jan 27, 2023 neutral
Sacks: Regulators should mandate itemized individual pricing for software bundles
“What you need to do is require that when they create a bundle, every product in that bundle needs to basically have an individual price. And the price of every product in that bundle should add up to the cost of the bundle.”
Jan 27, 2023 negative
Jan 27, 2023 bearish
Sacks: Microsoft clones products from Slack, Okta, and Zoom to weaken them
“If Microsoft can basically clone the sort of the breakthrough innovative product, you know, just to say they do one every year and then they put a crappy version of that in their bundle. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. 10% or 50% worse, but they give it away effectively for…”
Jan 27, 2023 negative
Feb 4, 2023
Feb 11, 2023 neutral
Mar 3, 2023 bearish
Chamath: OpenAI selling 49% to Microsoft proves foundation models have capped upside
“If it was a highly proprietary asset, you would have never sold 49% of it to Microsoft for ten billion dollars, because you would assume that it was worth a trillion dollars. So it's a huge tell on the part of OpenAI, their deep understanding, and they underst…”
Apr 28, 2023 positive
Friedberg: Google has a massive structural AI advantage over Microsoft
“I think Google has such an incredible AI advantage over Microsoft. And, you know, Microsoft is almost solely dependent on open AI, this small startup company, and all of Bing chats is powered by it. And Microsoft hasn't built out the infrastructure, the team, …”
Apr 28, 2023 bearish
Chamath: Big Tech companies have passed peak growth and become cash cows
“I think we're now well past peak big tech. Their valuations may still go up because they generate such an enormous amount of cash flow. But these are exactly those kinds of businesses now. They are X growth, large cash flow businesses.”
May 26, 2023 neutral
Jun 24, 2023 neutral
Jul 1, 2023
Chamath: Chip and cloud investments in AI startups round-trip cash
“So whenever I see a chip maker and a cloud provider come together to put in a lot of money, it's essentially round tripping cash. They're giving them money, which then they use to buy their services. And then you know, you just you're just pumping revenue.”
Jul 14, 2023 bearish
Sep 13, 2023 negative
Sep 16, 2023 negative
Sep 22, 2023 bullish
Sep 22, 2023
Dec 8, 2023 positive
Chamath: Microsoft has successfully closed all major acquisition attempts under Brad Smith
“When you look at the track record of his ability post this consent decree to get deals done inside of Microsoft, it's truly incredible. There is nothing that they've really tried to buy, whether it's Nuance or whether it's Mojang or whether it's GitHub. Activi…”
Dec 29, 2023 bullish
Dec 29, 2023 positive
Mar 22, 2024 neutral
Calacanis: Apple-Google AI deal cements alliance to counter Microsoft
“What I do think about this deal that's really interesting is it's sort of cementing the Google and the Apple Alliance against Microsoft and Microsoft has big, you know, AI ambition. So this is kind of interesting. If you lock in the duopoly of Google and Apple…”
Mar 22, 2024
Mar 22, 2024
Mar 22, 2024 negative
May 24, 2024 neutral
Jun 29, 2024 bearish
Sacks: Microsoft will systematically dominate enterprise software through bundling unless stopped
“If we don't do that, I do think that Microsoft will use the power of the bundle to systematically dominate enterprise software, and they won't take on everybody at once. But like I said, they'll, every year they'll add a new product to the bundle.”
Jun 29, 2024 neutral
Jun 29, 2024 negative
Aug 9, 2024 negative
Aug 9, 2024 negative
Palihapitiya: Google breakup unlikely, Microsoft-style consent decree very likely
“Again, the big O outcome of breaking up the company, like what happened in Mabel, I don't think that's going to happen here. A little O outcome that is a consent decree similar to the one that Microsoft had to sign is very likely.”
Aug 30, 2024 positive
Aug 30, 2024 positive
Hoffman details Inflection AI deal returning 1x to investors
“With a, you know, kind of outside party, you can get paid enough in a non-exclusive IP license and an ability to selectively hire folks, and then you can dividend some of that out to investors. So investors, you know, get back a, you know, kind of a one X and …”
Sep 15, 2024 negative
Benioff calls Microsoft Copilot a universal failure and a complete disaster
“I think in the last few years, what we've kind of heard, and you know, some of it has come from OpenAI, but especially from Microsoft, that we're in this co-pilot world, and these co-pilots have universally failed. The level of accuracy, the spillage of inform…”
Oct 3, 2024 bullish
Dec 7, 2024 negative
Dec 20, 2024 bullish
Chamath: Big tech and Elon Musk will win the AI hardware war
“In a capital war, I think the big companies like Google, Amazon, Microsoft, Meta, And brands like Elon will always be able to attract effectively infinite capital, and their cost of capital goes to zero, which means they'll be able to win this hardware war.”
Jan 18, 2025
Mark Pincus bought Six Degrees patents for $750K and still owns half
“Reid and I bought them because we were worried that if Yahoo at the time had gotten them, or even Friendster, that they would have blocked the whole industry, so we bought them. We paid 750 K, which was a lot then, and we were accused of being patent trolls, a…”
Feb 15, 2025 negative
Mar 1, 2025
Mar 8, 2025 negative
Mar 20, 2025 positive
May 9, 2025 positive
May 31, 2025 negative
Jun 21, 2025 negative
Jun 21, 2025 bullish
Chamath Palihapitiya predicts Microsoft's employee base will grow over five years
“So I suspect that Microsoft business on the margin grows back to Dave's point. Some of the four 93 shrink and go away. It'll be cheaper for Microsoft to bundle together a bunch of other products that are point features today. And so they'll have more people. T…”
Jun 21, 2025 neutral
Calacanis predicts Microsoft's headcount will stay flat near 225,000 to 250,000
“I think they'll have just about two 50 plus or -10%. I don't think if I could pick push as the answer, I would pick push, which is they're going to get 10% better every year with AI, 20% more efficient. Therefore, they don't need to add people, but I also don'…”
Jun 21, 2025 bearish
Friedberg: Microsoft faces core application revenue decline within next five years
“I do think that there's a real probability of revenue decline in the next five years. So if you look at the enterprise install base, I think that cloud gets competed away. So I do think like on the application software layer, they're going to have a really har…”
Jun 28, 2025
Jul 24, 2025 positive
Oct 24, 2025 neutral
Friedberg compares revenue run rates and growth for AWS, Azure, and GCP
“AWS has a hundred twenty-four billion dollar revenue run rate. Microsoft, one hundred twenty billion, and Google Cloud, fifty four billion. But AWS, which is slightly larger than Microsoft, is only growing 17% year over year. Microsoft's 26% year over year, an…”
Nov 22, 2025 bullish
Chamath: AI decoding chip market will quickly become highly fragmented
“What we are quickly seeing is that there's going to be a highly fragmented layer of decoding chips that exist in the marketplace. Grok is one. TPU is one. Microsoft has a spin. Amazon has Inferentia. Facebook, I think, is Apparently spinning up their own silic…”
Jan 10, 2026 bullish
Calacanis: Big Tech will make a $50B+ AI acquisition in 2026
“For twenty-twenty-six, I think we're going to see some massive M&A. It doesn't matter to me how it occurs, but I do think we're going to see a fifty billion plus deal, and I think it could be, ah, one of the Mac seven, an Apple, a Meta, a Microsoft, or an Amaz…”
Jan 21, 2026 bullish
Jan 21, 2026 positive
Nadella: Enterprise AI ROI initially comes from customer service, supply chain, HR
“Top-down is if I look at the ROI of applying AI in customer service or in supply chain, or in HR self-service, those are the easy projects where IT and CXOs can make calls, and that's where you're seeing the first drop of real AI adoption.”
Jan 21, 2026 positive
Jan 21, 2026 positive
Microsoft testing apprenticeship model pairing senior devs with college hires
“In fact, one of the things we're experimenting with is a different type of apprenticeship, right? Which is, you take somebody who's an IC senior dev, Have, like, a cohort of college hires working with them, because it's a new way of working.”
Jan 21, 2026 positive
Nadella: Orchestrating role-prompted models beats any single frontier model
“What it proves is that by assigning roles, right? So investigator, data analyst, domain expert, just giving even prompted roles to models, And then orchestrating them gets better results than any one single frontier model.”
Jan 21, 2026
Sacks: SharePoint ecosystem revenue was 7x Microsoft's direct software revenue
“The revenue from the SharePoint ecosystem, meaning non-Microsoft, the consulting community, the implementers who would go into companies and implement SharePoint, I think their revenue was something like seven times greater than Microsoft's own software revenu…”
Jan 21, 2026
Jan 23, 2026 positive
Jan 31, 2026 negative
Mar 23, 2026 positive
Mar 27, 2026 bearish
Calacanis: All consumer AI queries will eventually be free
“My base case here is that all consumer queries are going to be free. Apple's going to make them free. They're already free for Google. I think Meta is going to make them free and actually have a decent product soon, and Microsoft, same thing.”
Jun 3, 2026 bullish
Jun 4, 2026 bullish
Jul 3, 2026
Jul 24, 2026
Friedberg: Early Google benchmarked against millions of Yahoo and Microsoft search results
“At Google in the early days, we would submit millions of search queries to Yahoo and Microsoft search engines to see what the results sets were. And we would compare our results against their results as a way of improving our search engine rankings and our alg…”