why aren't all 8 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 1 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Chamath Palihapitiya predicts Visa and MasterCard will be 2022's biggest business losers
“My biggest business loser for 20, 22 is Visa and MasterCard and traditional payment rails and the entire ecosystem around it.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Palihapitiya: Stripe, Block, Advent PayPal acquisition would compete with Visa
“What is the only kind of baby that Advent and Stripe and Block could have together? And I think there's one, which is you are creating a competitor to Visa and MasterCard.”
Insight
Yakovenko: Banks are more disruptible than Visa and MasterCard
“My, like contrary opinion is that I think Visa and MasterCard are more technology companies, and if you look at their, like, profit margin on the gross payment volume, it's like 10 basis points. It's like vapor. I think the issuer and receiver bank, those are …”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Yakovenko: Visa would be more successful by using stablecoins to bypass banks
“If they could remove the banks out of the loop and just do stable cone transfers behind the scenes, I think they become a lot more successful and they can do a lot more for, you know, a lot less.”
Assertion Partly supported
Chamath notes Q2 2024 stablecoin volume surpassed double Visa's transaction volume
“Stablecoin usage. At the end of the second quarter of 2024 was about 1.1 billion transactions that summed to 8.5 trillion dollars of transaction volume. If you compare that to Visa over the same period, it was more than double Visa's transaction volume.”
Opinion
Chamath: Visa and Mastercard raising fees during inflation is extremely dumb
“Visa and MasterCard, I think are doing the single dumbest thing they could do by being a duopoly, which is raising prices, especially into an inflationary moment, which just lacks complete knowledge and sensitivity of the moment.”
Prediction Open · timeframe Nov 2030
Calacanis predicts Stripe and Visa will launch their own stablecoins
“Stripe, Visa, everybody's gonna have their own stable coin.”
Assertion Partly supported
Calacanis: Financial stocks fell up to 8% following viral AI report
“After this piece came out, which speculated that agents would get rid of all the three percent interchange fees and move everybody to settle transactions on stablecoins, all the financial stocks got hit on Monday. Amex down eight percent, Capital One down eigh…”